8
15 August 2020 Results Review 1QFY21 Eicher Motors HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters Improving outlook priced in While Eicher reported a 1QFY21 loss of Rs 552mn, the demand outlook at Royal Enfield (RE) has surprised on the upside. The management highlighted that RE bookings have reverted back to pre-COVID levels, however supply chains constraints are impacting production (operating at 40% levels). Eicher Motors will acquire the bus business of Volvo India as the OEM is consolidating its presence across the CV sub segments. The stock (37.9x/27.6x on FY21/22E earnings) at current levels is adequately factoring in the recovery in our view. We have a REDUCE rating on the stock. 1QFY21 financials: Volumes for RE at ~57k units were down 69/65% YoY/QoQ. Realization grew 5% YoY to Rs 134k owing to BSVI transition. EBITDA margins came in at 0.2% (vs 25.9/20.8% YoY/QoQ) due to the negative operating leverage. Standalone PAT declined 98% YoY to Rs 123mn. However, a loss of Rs 654mn at VECV led to consolidated PAT loss of Rs 552mn. Call & other takeaways: (1) Demand picking-up: RE witnessed pick-up in demand towards the end of the quarter, especially in Tier-II and III cities. Bookings are now at almost pre-COVID level (40-45k bookings are pending due to supply issues). 80% dealerships are now open. (2) Small Format Stores: In 1QFY21, the co has added 38 small format stores (638 stores total stores opened). (3) Supply chain constraints: While the OEM has a capacity of 100k units, the plants are operating at mere 30-40% levels. Inventory currently is just at 10k units, which is less than a week. Management intends to increase this to 3 weeks. The new model launches have been delayed and are expected in 2HFY21. (4) Exports: The initial response from UK market has been encouraging with the Interceptor 650cc being well received. Management’s long-term goal is to increase the contribution to 20% (5% currently). The OEM is aggressively expanding its new store count in international markets (5) Volvo Buses India (VBI) acquisition: VECV has signed an agreement with Volvo Group India for acquisition of its bus business under VBI. This will cover the manufacturing, assembly, distribution, and sales. Target price: We value the stock on Jun-22 EPS and set a revised SOTP based target price of Rs 18,030. We now value the core business at 23x (20x earlier), to factor in the expected recovery. Key risks: Faster-than-expected economic pick-up, encouraging response to new product launches. Financial Summary (Consolidated) YE March (Rs mn) 1Q FY21 1Q FY20 YoY (%) 4Q FY20 QoQ (%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Net Sales 8,182 23,819 (65.7) 22,082 (62.9) 97,971 91,536 79,511 93,439 111,519 EBITDA 38 6,145 (99.4) 4,322 (99.1) 29,031 21,804 17,729 22,501 27,564 APAT (552) 4,561 NA 3,043 NA 22,203 18,275 14,481 19,876 24,814 Adj. EPS (Rs) (20.2) 167.3 NA 111.6 NA 814.5 669.4 530.4 728.1 908.9 APAT Growth(%) 1.9 (17.7) (20.8) 37.3 24.8 P/E (x) 24.7 30.1 37.9 27.6 22.1 RoE (%) 27.8 19.3 13.7 16.7 18.2 Source: Company, HSIE Research REDUCE CMP (as on 14 Aug 2020) Rs 20,144 Target Price Rs 18,030 NIFTY 11,178 KEY CHANGES OLD NEW Rating REDUCE REDUCE Price Target Rs 15,020 Rs 18,030 EPS % FY21E FY22E -5% +3% KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg code EIM IN No. of Shares (mn) 27 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 550/7,343 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 4,360 52 Week high / low Rs 23,450/12,450 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 43.6 7.7 21.5 Relative (%) 21.9 15.9 20.0 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Mar-20 Jun-20 Promoters 49.3 49.3 FIs & Local MFs 11.3 12.1 FPIs 27.7 27.0 Public & Others 11.8 11.7 Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0 Source : BSE Aditya Makharia [email protected] +91-22-6171-7316 Mansi Lall [email protected] +91-22-6171-7357

15 August 2020 Results Review 1QFY21 Eicher Motors

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Page 1: 15 August 2020 Results Review 1QFY21 Eicher Motors

15 August 2020 Results Review 1QFY21

Eicher Motors

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Improving outlook priced in

While Eicher reported a 1QFY21 loss of Rs 552mn, the demand outlook at

Royal Enfield (RE) has surprised on the upside. The management highlighted

that RE bookings have reverted back to pre-COVID levels, however supply

chains constraints are impacting production (operating at 40% levels). Eicher

Motors will acquire the bus business of Volvo India as the OEM is

consolidating its presence across the CV sub segments. The stock (37.9x/27.6x

on FY21/22E earnings) at current levels is adequately factoring in the recovery

in our view. We have a REDUCE rating on the stock.

1QFY21 financials: Volumes for RE at ~57k units were down 69/65%

YoY/QoQ. Realization grew 5% YoY to Rs 134k owing to BSVI transition.

EBITDA margins came in at 0.2% (vs 25.9/20.8% YoY/QoQ) due to the

negative operating leverage. Standalone PAT declined 98% YoY to Rs

123mn. However, a loss of Rs 654mn at VECV led to consolidated PAT loss

of Rs 552mn.

Call & other takeaways: (1) Demand picking-up: RE witnessed pick-up in

demand towards the end of the quarter, especially in Tier-II and III cities.

Bookings are now at almost pre-COVID level (40-45k bookings are pending

due to supply issues). 80% dealerships are now open. (2) Small Format

Stores: In 1QFY21, the co has added 38 small format stores (638 stores total

stores opened). (3) Supply chain constraints: While the OEM has a capacity

of 100k units, the plants are operating at mere 30-40% levels. Inventory

currently is just at 10k units, which is less than a week. Management intends

to increase this to 3 weeks. The new model launches have been delayed and

are expected in 2HFY21. (4) Exports: The initial response from UK market

has been encouraging with the Interceptor 650cc being well received.

Management’s long-term goal is to increase the contribution to 20% (5%

currently). The OEM is aggressively expanding its new store count in

international markets (5) Volvo Buses India (VBI) acquisition: VECV has

signed an agreement with Volvo Group India for acquisition of its bus

business under VBI. This will cover the manufacturing, assembly,

distribution, and sales.

Target price: We value the stock on Jun-22 EPS and set a revised SOTP

based target price of Rs 18,030. We now value the core business at 23x (20x

earlier), to factor in the expected recovery. Key risks: Faster-than-expected

economic pick-up, encouraging response to new product launches.

Financial Summary (Consolidated)

YE March (Rs

mn)

1Q

FY21

1Q

FY20

YoY

(%)

4Q

FY20

QoQ

(%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Sales 8,182 23,819 (65.7) 22,082 (62.9) 97,971 91,536 79,511 93,439 111,519

EBITDA 38 6,145 (99.4) 4,322 (99.1) 29,031 21,804 17,729 22,501 27,564

APAT (552) 4,561 NA 3,043 NA 22,203 18,275 14,481 19,876 24,814

Adj. EPS (Rs) (20.2) 167.3 NA 111.6 NA 814.5 669.4 530.4 728.1 908.9

APAT Growth(%)

1.9 (17.7) (20.8) 37.3 24.8

P/E (x)

24.7 30.1 37.9 27.6 22.1

RoE (%)

27.8 19.3 13.7 16.7 18.2

Source: Company, HSIE Research

REDUCE

CMP (as on 14 Aug 2020) Rs 20,144

Target Price Rs 18,030

NIFTY 11,178

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating REDUCE REDUCE

Price Target Rs 15,020 Rs 18,030

EPS % FY21E FY22E

-5% +3%

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code EIM IN

No. of Shares (mn) 27

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 550/7,343

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 4,360

52 Week high / low Rs 23,450/12,450

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 43.6 7.7 21.5

Relative (%) 21.9 15.9 20.0

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Mar-20 Jun-20

Promoters 49.3 49.3

FIs & Local MFs 11.3 12.1

FPIs 27.7 27.0

Public & Others 11.8 11.7

Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0

Source : BSE

Aditya Makharia

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7316

Mansi Lall

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7357

Page 2: 15 August 2020 Results Review 1QFY21 Eicher Motors

Page | 2

Eicher Motors: Results Review 1QFY21

Quarterly Financial Snapshot: Standalone

Particulars (Rs mn) 1QFY21 1QFY20 YoY (%) 4QFY20 QoQ (%)

Volumes (in units) 57,269 183,589 (68.8) 163,083 (64.9)

Net ASP (Rs/veh) 134,315 128,144 4.8 133,644 0.5

Net sales (incl OOI) 7,692 23,526 (67.3) 21,795 (64.7)

Material Expenses 4,759 12,725 (62.6) 12,310 (61.3)

Employee Expenses 1,693 2,041 (17.0) 2,051 (17.5)

Other Operating Expenses 1,228 2,667 (53.9) 2,902 (57.7)

Total Expenditure 7,680 17,433 (55.9) 17,263 (55.5)

EBITDA 12 6,093 (99.8) 4,533 (99.7)

Depreciation 971 868 11.9 1,079 (10.0)

EBIT (959) 5,225 NA 3,454 NA

Other Income 1,153 1,884 (38.8) 1,462 (21.2)

Interest Cost 30 29 2.0 25 21.5

PBT 163 7,079 (97.7) 4,891 (96.7)

Tax 40 2,097 (98.1) 1,429 (97.2)

RPAT 123 4,982 (97.5) 3,462 (96.4)

EO Items (Adj For Tax) - - - - -

APAT 123 4,982 (97.5) 3,462 (96.4)

Adj EPS 4.5 182.8 (97.5) 127.0 (96.4)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Quarterly Performance Analysis

As % of sales 1QFY21 1QFY20 YoY (bps) 4QFY20 QoQ (bps)

Material Expenses 61.9 54.1 778 56.5 539

Employee Expenses 22.0 8.7 1,333 9.4 1,260

Other Operating Expenses 16.0 11.3 463 13.3 265

Total Expenditure 99.8 74.1 2,574 79.2 2,064

EBITDA 0.2 25.9 (2,574) 20.8 (2,064)

RPAT 1.6 21.2 (1,958) 15.9 (1,428)

APAT 1.6 21.2 (1,958) 15.9 (1,428)

Tax as % of PBT 24.7 29.6 (489) 29.2 (449)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Quarterly Financials Snapshot: VECV

1QFY21 1QFY20 YoY (%) 4QFY20 QoQ (%)

Volumes (in units) 2,129 13,331 (84.0) 11,629 (81.7)

Net Sales 6,410 22,550 (71.6) 21,010 (69.5)

EBITDA (720) 1,370 NA 380 NA

EBITDA margin (%) (11.2) 6.1 NA 1.8 NA

PAT (1,200) 380 NA (260) NA

Quarterly Financials Snapshot: Consolidated

1QFY21 1QFY20 YoY (%) 4QFY20 QoQ (%)

Net sales (incl OOI) 8,182 23,819 (65.7) 22,082 (62.9)

EBITDA 38 6,145 (99.4) 4,322 (99.1)

EBITDA margin (%) 0.5 25.8 -2533 bps 19.6 -1911 bps

Depreciation 982 876 12.1 1,089 (9.8)

EBIT (944) 5,269 NA 3,233 NA

Other Income 1,142 1,204 (5.1) 1,431 (20.2)

Interest Cost 51 47 9.0 55 (8.0)

PBT 147 6,426 (97.7) 4,609 (96.8)

Tax 45 2,117 (97.9) 1,426 (96.8)

Share of JV profit (654) 209 NA (140) NA

RPAT (552) 4,518 NA 3,043 NA

EO Items (Adj For Tax) - (43) - - -

APAT (552) 4,561 NA 3,043 NA

Adj EPS (20.2) 167.3 NA 111.6 NA

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Volumes declined 69/65%

YoY/QoQ owing to

COVID-led lockdown

However, demand outlook

is with bookings

improving sharply

New product launches will

be delayed by 3-6 months

Gross margins were

affected in the quarter due

to the incentives schemes

being launched

VECV volumes declined

84% YoY owing to COVID

and weak CV cycle

However, Eicher believes

that it will gain market

share in the CV segment as

its BSVI products offer

improved lifecycle cost

benefits

Page 3: 15 August 2020 Results Review 1QFY21 Eicher Motors

Page | 3

Eicher Motors: Results Review 1QFY21

RE volumes declined 69% YoY RE’s realizations were maintained QoQ

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Source: Company, HSIE Research

RE’s EBITDA margin impacted due to negative oplev VECV volumes remained weak

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Consolidated loss came in at Rs 552mn Stock valuations have risen anticipating a recovery

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Bloomberg, Company, HSIE Research

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

-

50

100

150

200

250

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

1Q

FY

21

RE Volumes (in units '000) % YoY - RHS

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

1Q

FY

21

Realisation (in Rs '000) % YoY - RHS3

2.3

%

29

.9%

29

.5%

27

.8%

25

.9%

25

.0%

25

.2%

20

.8%

0.2

%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

1Q

FY

21

EBITDA margin (%)

-90

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

0

5

10

15

20

251

QF

Y1

9

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

1Q

FY

21

VECV Vols (in units '000) % YoY - RHS

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

1Q

FY

21

Consolidated Profit (in Rs bn)

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

Au

g-1

5

Feb

-16

Au

g-1

6

Feb

-17

Au

g-1

7

Feb

-18

Au

g-1

8

Feb

-19

Au

g-1

9

Feb

-20

Au

g-2

0P/E

Page 4: 15 August 2020 Results Review 1QFY21 Eicher Motors

Page | 4

Eicher Motors: Results Review 1QFY21

Volume assumptions

in units FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

RE 666,490 820,493 823,828 696,052 587,035 660,301 754,859

% YoY 10.9 23.1 0.4 (15.5) (15.7) 12.5 14.3

VECV 58,538 65,932 72,969 48,721 39,418 47,477 56,972

% YoY (7.2) 12.6 10.7 (33.2) (19.1) 20.4 20.0

Total volumes 725,028 886,425 896,797 744,773 626,453 707,778 811,831

% YoY 9.2 22.3 1.2 (17.0) (15.9) 13.0 14.7

RE average ASP (Rs) 104,687 108,098 118,890 130,414 135,401 141,471 147,701

% YoY 2.6 3.3 10.0 9.7 3.8 4.5 4.4

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Valuation Summary

We value the stock on Jun-22 EPS and set a revised SOTP based target price of Rs 18,050.

We now value the core RE business at 23x (from 20x earlier), to factor in the expected recovery. Similarly, we are also valuing the VECV business at 15x PE (from 12x earlier).

SOTP Valuation Stake held (%) Valuation methodology Multiple (x) Value/sh (Rs)

Royal Enfield 100 P/E on Jun-22E core EPS 23 17,286

VECV 54.4 P/E on Jun-22E 15 745

Target Price (Rs)

18,030

Change in Estimates

Rs mn New Old Change (%)

FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E

Net Sales 79,511 93,439 83,843 95,151 (5) (2)

EBITDA 17,729 22,501 18,708 22,500 (5) 0

EBITDA margin (%) 22.3 24.1 22.3 23.6 -2 bps 43 bps

Adj PAT 14,481 19,876 15,282 19,221 (5) 3

Adj EPS (in Rs) 530.4 728.1 560.6 705.1 (5) 3

Source: HSIE Research

Peer set comparison

Mcap

(Rs bn)

CMP

(Rs/sh) Reco

TP

(Rs)

Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) RoE (%)

FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E

AUTOS

Ashok Leyland 181 62 REDUCE 57 0.6 3.5 4.7 101.3 17.6 13.1 2.4 13.4 16.4

Bajaj Auto 863 2,983 ADD 3,120 144.3 166.0 194.0 20.7 18.0 15.4 20.0 20.9 22.2

Eicher 550 20,144 REDUCE 18,030 530.4 728.1 908.9 37.9 27.6 22.1 13.7 16.7 18.2

Escorts Ltd. 135 1,101 ADD 1,200 54.1 71.1 85.0 20.4 15.5 12.9 13.0 13.6 14.2

Hero Motocorp 560 2,805 BUY 3,100 124.9 156.4 182.5 22.5 17.9 15.4 17.0 19.5 20.5

Mahindra 733 615 ADD 610 27.5 35.3 41.9 22.4 17.4 14.7 9.2 10.9 11.8

Maruti Suzuki 1,989 6,587 BUY 6,980 145.9 261.6 330.9 45.1 25.2 19.9 8.5 14.1 16.1

Tata Motors 448 125 ADD 118 (29.7) (0.5) 9.8 NA NA 12.7 (25.0) (0.5) 9.0

Source: HSIE Research

Page 5: 15 August 2020 Results Review 1QFY21 Eicher Motors

Page | 5

Eicher Motors: Results Review 1QFY21

Financials Consolidated Income Statement

(Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Revenues 70,334 89,650 97,971 91,536 79,511 93,439 111,519

Growth (%) 13.9 27.5 9.3 (6.6) (13.1) 17.5 19.3

Material Expenses 37,045 46,435 50,574 49,959 44,273 51,004 60,541

Employee Expenses 4,263 5,737 7,024 7,958 7,074 8,127 9,700

Other Operating Expenses 7,287 9,402 11,341 11,815 10,435 11,807 13,714

Total Expenses 48,594 61,573 68,940 69,732 61,782 70,938 83,955

EBITDA 21,740 28,076 29,031 21,804 17,729 22,501 27,564

EBITDA Margin (%) 30.9 31.3 29.6 23.8 22.3 24.1 24.7

EBITDA Growth (%) 28.7 29 3 (25) (19) 27 22

Depreciation 1,538 2,233 3,003 3,815 3,817 4,084 4,329

EBIT 20,201 25,843 26,028 17,988 13,912 18,417 23,235

Other Income (Including EO Items) 1,813 601 4,259 5,433 5,298 6,015 6,674

Interest 36 53 73 188 192 201 212

PBT 21,979 26,390 30,214 23,233 19,018 24,231 29,697

Tax (Incl Deferred) 7,203 9,359 10,770 5,275 4,336 5,500 6,830

Share of profit from JV 1,895 2,566 2,584 317 (201) 1,146 1,947

RPAT 16,671 19,597 22,027 18,275 14,481 19,876 24,814

EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) (460) (2,201) (175)

- - -

APAT 17,131 21,797 22,203 18,275 14,481 19,876 24,814

APAT Growth (%) 28.0 27.2 1.9 (17.7) (20.8) 37.3 24.8

Adjusted EPS (Rs) 629.6 799.6 814.5 669.4 530.4 728.1 908.9

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Consolidated Balance Sheet

(Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital - Equity 272 273 273 273 273 273 273

Reserves 53,179 70,028 88,914 99,536 110,815 126,574 146,292

Total Shareholders Funds 53,451 70,301 89,187 99,809 111,088 126,847 146,565

Short Term Debt 444 1,508 1,868 1,444 1,517 1,592 1,672

Total Debt 444 1,508 1,868 1,444 1,517 1,592 1,672

Net Deferred Taxes 778 1,421 2,739 2,522 2,547 2,572 2,598

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 54,673 73,230 93,794 103,775 115,151 131,011 150,835

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block 8,728 15,017 18,746 23,775 23,199 25,217 27,388

CWIP 3,738 3,332 4,497 3,122 3,422 3,722 4,022

Investments 17,458 17,643 19,439 18,921 18,856 19,615 20,905

Total Non-current Assets 29,924 35,992 42,682 45,817 45,476 48,553 52,314

Cash & Equivalents 32,664 50,286 59,439 68,073 80,528 94,543 112,088

Inventories 3,359 3,946 6,334 5,724 5,010 5,888 7,027

Debtors 500 680 843 868 1,089 1,280 1,528

Other Current Assets 3,460 4,319 4,570 4,016 4,318 4,647 5,005

Total Current Assets 39,983 59,231 71,186 78,680 90,946 106,358 125,647

Creditors 8,327 11,719 12,341 10,277 10,021 11,776 14,054

Other Current Liabilities & Provns 6,907 10,274 7,734 10,446 11,251 12,124 13,072

Total Current Liabilities 15,234 21,992 20,075 20,722 21,271 23,900 27,126

Net Current Assets 24,749 37,238 51,111 57,958 69,675 82,458 98,521

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 54,673 73,230 93,794 103,775 115,151 131,011 150,835

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Page 6: 15 August 2020 Results Review 1QFY21 Eicher Motors

Page | 6

Eicher Motors: Results Review 1QFY21

Consolidated Cash Flow (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Reported PBT 23,874 28,956 32,798 23,550 18,817 25,376 31,644

Non-operating & EO Items (1,813) (601) (4,259) (5,433) (5,298) (6,015) (6,674)

Interest Expenses 36 53 73 188 192 201 212

Depreciation 1,538 2,233 3,003 3,815 3,817 4,084 4,329

Working Capital Change 1,815 5,133 (4,720) 1,788 738 1,231 1,482

Tax Paid (6,784) (8,716) (9,452) (5,492) (4,311) (5,475) (6,805)

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 18,666 27,058 17,443 18,417 13,955 19,404 24,188

Capex (5,117) (8,117) (7,897) (7,469) (3,541) (6,402) (6,800)

Free Cash Flow (FCF) 13,548 18,942 9,546 10,947 10,414 13,002 17,388

Investments - (185) (1,797) 519 65 (759) (1,290)

Non-operating Income 1,813 601 4,259 5,433 5,298 6,015 6,674

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (3,304) (7,701) (5,435) (1,518) 1,822 (1,146) (1,416)

Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 218 1,064 359 (423) 72 76 80

Interest Expenses (36) (53) (73) (188) (192) (201) (212)

FCFE 13,731 19,953 9,832 10,336 10,295 12,876 17,256

Share Capital Issuance 3,420 746 832 (3,680) 0 - -

Dividend (3,171) (3,493) (3,973) (3,973) (3,202) (4,117) (5,096)

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) 432 (1,736) (2,855) (8,264) (3,322) (4,243) (5,227)

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 15,793 17,622 9,153 8,634 12,455 14,015 17,545

Closing Cash & Equivalents 32,664 50,286 59,439 68,073 80,528 94,543 112,088

Key Ratios

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

PROFITABILITY (%)

GPM 47.3 48.2 48.4 45.4 44.3 45.4 45.7

EBITDA Margin 30.9 31.3 29.6 23.8 22.3 24.1 24.7

EBIT Margin 28.7 28.8 26.6 19.7 17.5 19.7 20.8

APAT Margin 24.4 24.3 22.7 20.0 18.2 21.3 22.3

RoE 38.1 35.2 27.8 19.3 13.7 16.7 18.2

RoIC (or Core RoCE) 64.3 74.2 58.5 39.7 30.5 40.1 47.6

RoCE 32.9 28.9 23.5 18.3 13.5 15.3 16.3

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) 32.8 35.5 35.6 22.7 22.8 22.7 23.0

Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 8.1 6.0 5.2 3.9 3.4 3.7 4.1

Inventory (days) 17.4 16.1 23.6 22.8 23.0 23.0 23.0

Debtors (days) 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.5 5.0 5.0 5.0

Other Current Assets (days) 18.0 17.6 17.0 16.0 19.8 18.2 16.4

Payables (days) 43.2 47.7 46.0 41.0 46.0 46.0 46.0

Other Current Liab & Provns

(days) 35.8 41.8 28.8 41.7 51.6 47.4 42.8

Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (41.1) (53.1) (31.0) (40.3) (49.8) (47.2) (44.4)

Debt/EBITDA (x) (1.5) (1.7) (2.0) (3.1) (4.5) (4.1) (4.0)

Net D/E (x) (0.6) (0.7) (0.6) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.8)

Interest Coverage (x) 567.5 484.0 355.1 95.6 72.5 91.4 109.8

PER SHARE DATA (Rs)

EPS 629.6 799.6 814.5 669.4 530.4 728.1 908.9

CEPS 669.2 800.8 918.2 809.2 670.3 877.7 1,067.5

Dividend 100.0 110.0 125.1 124.9 100.7 129.5 160.2

Book Value 1,964 2,579 3,272 3,656 4,069 4,646 5,369

VALUATION

P/E (x) 32.0 25.2 24.7 30.1 37.9 27.6 22.1

P/BV (x) 10.2 7.8 6.2 5.5 4.9 4.3 3.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 23.7 17.8 16.9 22.1 26.5 20.3 15.9

EV/Revenues (x) 7.3 5.6 5.0 5.3 5.9 4.9 3.9

OCF/EV (%) 3.6 5.4 3.6 3.8 3.0 4.2 5.5

FCF/EV (%) 2.6 3.8 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.8 4.0

FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 2.5 3.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.3 3.1

Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Page 7: 15 August 2020 Results Review 1QFY21 Eicher Motors

Page | 7

Eicher Motors: Results Review 1QFY21

Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: >10% Downside return potential

Date CMP Reco Target

1-Aug-19 16,348 SELL 14,760

22-Sep-19 17,860 NEU 16,280

11-Oct-19 18,201 NEU 16,280

9-Nov-19 21,701 NEU 19,650

9-Jan-20 19,892 NEU 19,650

6-Feb-20 20,391 NEU 19,650

2-Mar-20 16,602 ADD 20,340

20-Apr-20 14,766 REDUCE 13,800

11-May-20 14,304 REDUCE 13,800

13-Jun-20 16,857 REDUCE 15,020

15-Aug-20 20,144 REDUCE 18,030

From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Ma

r-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Ma

y-2

0

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Eicher TP

Page 8: 15 August 2020 Results Review 1QFY21 Eicher Motors

Page | 8

Eicher Motors: Results Review 1QFY21

HDFC securities

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