Responding to the climate emergency

Innovyze

2020 UK and European Conference

Craig WoolhouseDeputy Director of Evidence & Risk

4 March 2020

Overview

•Floods – recent and still to come

•Responding to the climate emergency and a new flood strategy

•Modelling context

Fishlake - 10 November 2019

Storm Dennis

7

River Severn

Aire & Ouse Washlands

8

Significant recent flood events

Year Flood eventProperties

flooded

Properties

protected

February 2020 Storms Ciara & Dennis 3,400 82,700

Autumn 2019 North & South of England 1,200 45,400

2015/16 North of England Floods 17,000 23,400

2013/14 Winter Floods (Dec 13 to May 14) 11,000 1.4m

2012 2012 Floods (Mar to Dec) 7,900 Approx 200,000

2007 Summer Floods 55,000 Approx 100,000

Newcastle 2012

Coining Hull "the forgotten city", the council's then leader Carl Minns pointed out that "if this was Chelsea or Fulham, this would have been plastered over the front pages for weeks"

• 3.8 million homes in England at risk

• National Climate Change Risk Assessment (2016)

• National Flood Resilience Review (2016)

• Inclusion of surface water flooding in the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies (2017)

• Defra’s 25-year Environment Plan

• Surface Water Management Action Plan (2018)

• Autumn Statement 2018 Funding

• Drainage & Wastewater Management Plans (2019)

Surface Water

National Risk Assessment H19: Coastal

scenario

H21: Inland

scenario

H22: Surface water

scenario

Properties affected

180,000 330,000 108,000

Population affected 185,000 -

215,000

360,000 -

560,000

115,000 -

314,000

Infrastructure affected 110km roads

90km rail

410km roads

190km rail

430km roads

220km rail

Overall damages (£) 5 - 7.5bn 7 – 11bn 1.6 - 2.3bn

Real events (£) 1.3bn in 2013/14 3.9bn in 2007

Advance warning 2-5 days 12-48 hours Very limited

Risk to life

Birmingham May 2018

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Net Zero Carbon by 2030

• Announced 10 October 2019

• Two stages1. Reduce our carbon emissions in

line with Paris Agreement – 1.5 degree warming pathway

2. Balance remaining emissions through investing in carbon absorption projects

• Absolute Zero by 2050?

Net Zero by 2030 – Scope

45% reduction by 2030

✓Build & operate assets

✓Buildings

✓Travel

✓Fuel

✓Supply Chain

✓Commuting

For illustration only

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Carbon emissions

Carbon emissions

FCERM Strategy ambitions

Climate resilient placesWorking with partners to develop the concept of standards

for flood and coastal resilience as well as a suite of tools

that can be used to deliver resilience in places

Today’s growth and infrastructure resilient in

tomorrow’s climateGetting the right kind of development in the right places to

deliver sustainable growth and infrastructure resilient to

flooding and coastal change

A nation of climate championsBetter preparing society through education and accessible

digital information as well as being a world leader in flood

and coastal resilience

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Evidence & Risk

Community-scale flood

forecasting models to inform

warning and response

activities – inland & coast

Deliver detailed modelling

and quality assurance that

supports scheme design, land

use planning choices and

local risk analysis

National flood risk mapping

products & strategic analysis

to inform effective risk

management

Some problems are simple

…but most are complex

Uncertainty and context

Rainfall and

hydrology

Land survey

Channel survey

and structures Model

schematisation

• Catchments

• Carbon

• Climate

• People

• Politics

Humility There is deep resentment of those who may well have a university

degree but who really have no idea of the land and water that flows

through itLynne Jones, Keswick

What does this mean for us?

• Mitigate - less carbon in modelling life cycle• Data, calibration and verification

• Processing and visualisation

• Working together differently

• Low carbon solutions from the start• What is the objective?

• Natural flood management

• Catchment wide solutions

• Adaptation is more than protection• Resilience

• The past will not be a guide to the future

Conclusions• Floods are about people and politics – we must

engage and inform as much as process and analyse

• We must think and act on carbon

• We must identify adaptive solutions for a future we can’t be sure about

• Our new flood strategy offers leadership to change

• Collaborate to achieve multiple goals – be leaders of change not actors following narrow instruction