Research Methods Research Methods

Chapter 2Chapter 2

Fact of Falsehood?Fact of Falsehood?

1. Human intuition is remarkably 1. Human intuition is remarkably accurate and free from erroraccurate and free from error

2. Most people seem to lack 2. Most people seem to lack confidence in the accuracy of their confidence in the accuracy of their beliefsbeliefs

3. Case studies are particularly 3. Case studies are particularly useful because of the similarities useful because of the similarities we all sharewe all share

4. We tend to overestimate the 4. We tend to overestimate the number of people who share our number of people who share our attitudes and beliefsattitudes and beliefs

Fact or Falsehood contFact or Falsehood cont

5. The opinions of 1,550 randomly 5. The opinions of 1,550 randomly selected people can provide a very selected people can provide a very accurate picture of the opinions of an accurate picture of the opinions of an entire nationentire nation

6. Research suggests that college 6. Research suggests that college students spend more than 25% of students spend more than 25% of their waking hours in conversationtheir waking hours in conversation

7. The scientific finding that children 7. The scientific finding that children who watch violence on TV tend to be who watch violence on TV tend to be violent proves that viewing violence violent proves that viewing violence can cause itcan cause it

Fact or Falsehood contFact or Falsehood cont

8. The purpose of the experiment 8. The purpose of the experiment is to recreate behaviors exactly is to recreate behaviors exactly as they occur in everyday lifeas they occur in everyday life

9. As a science, psychology is 9. As a science, psychology is objective and value-freeobjective and value-free

10. States with the death penalty 10. States with the death penalty have lower homicide rateshave lower homicide rates

Write out to the side how many Write out to the side how many you predict you got rightyou predict you got right

Scientific MethodScientific Method

Theory- general framework for scientific Theory- general framework for scientific study, has smaller parts which can be testedstudy, has smaller parts which can be tested

Hypothesis- statement of the results the Hypothesis- statement of the results the experimenter expects (prediction)experimenter expects (prediction)

Subjects- people or animals on whom a Subjects- people or animals on whom a study is conductedstudy is conducted

Random Sampling/Assignment- a sample of Random Sampling/Assignment- a sample of subjects that fairly represents a population subjects that fairly represents a population because each member has an equal chance because each member has an equal chance of inclusion and the sample has people of of inclusion and the sample has people of various ages, races, socioeconomic class, various ages, races, socioeconomic class, location, etc.location, etc.

Scientific Method contScientific Method cont Variables-factors that change in the Variables-factors that change in the

experimentexperiment– Sometimes there can be hidden variables that Sometimes there can be hidden variables that

the experimenter did not think aboutthe experimenter did not think about Independent Variable- the factor that the Independent Variable- the factor that the

experimenter manipulates or changes in a experimenter manipulates or changes in a studystudy– It is independent of everything else in the studyIt is independent of everything else in the study

Dependent Variable- the factor in a study Dependent Variable- the factor in a study that changes as a result of changes in the that changes as a result of changes in the independent variableindependent variable– Depends on the independent variableDepends on the independent variable

Lunatic ExperimentLunatic Experiment

Does a full moon Does a full moon reallyreally make people CrAzY? make people CrAzY? We would compare mental hospital We would compare mental hospital

admission rates for 10 days before and after admission rates for 10 days before and after a full moona full moon

Hypothesis- will rates increase, decrease, or Hypothesis- will rates increase, decrease, or remain the same over a full moon period?remain the same over a full moon period?

Subjects- People who are admitted to the Subjects- People who are admitted to the mental hospital during our experiment time mental hospital during our experiment time periodperiod

Lunatic ExperimentLunatic Experiment Independent Variable- moon phases (what is Independent Variable- moon phases (what is

independent and changes)independent and changes) Dependent Variable- hospital admission (what Dependent Variable- hospital admission (what

depends on independent variable and changes depends on independent variable and changes accordingly)accordingly)

Any hidden variables we might not have Any hidden variables we might not have accounted for?accounted for?

Full moon was over a weekend. Hospital Full moon was over a weekend. Hospital admissions always drop over the weekend so this admissions always drop over the weekend so this showed that admissions went down.showed that admissions went down.

Is this accurate? Should we do the experiment Is this accurate? Should we do the experiment again?again?

Scientific Method contScientific Method cont Controls- factors that you can control or Controls- factors that you can control or

manipulatemanipulate Subjects may be divided into groupsSubjects may be divided into groups Experimental Group- group on which the Experimental Group- group on which the

critical part of the experiment is performedcritical part of the experiment is performed Control Group- group that does not participate Control Group- group that does not participate

in the critical part of the experiment and is in the critical part of the experiment and is used to measure against experimental groupused to measure against experimental group

Groups need to be even in size and Groups need to be even in size and characteristics (age, race, health, social class)characteristics (age, race, health, social class)

Scientific Method contScientific Method cont

Placebo- “fake drug,” given to participants Placebo- “fake drug,” given to participants in the control group in a drug study, so they in the control group in a drug study, so they “think” they have drug as well and do not “think” they have drug as well and do not act differentact different

Sometimes experimenters can act Sometimes experimenters can act differently or interpret results differently if differently or interpret results differently if they know which group got the drug and they know which group got the drug and which got the placebowhich got the placebo

Double Blind Study- neither experimenter Double Blind Study- neither experimenter or participants know who got drug (so no or participants know who got drug (so no one is biased- even unconsciously biased, one is biased- even unconsciously biased, and the experiment is as accurate as and the experiment is as accurate as possible)possible)

Scientific Method contScientific Method cont

Results- What happened?Results- What happened? Replicate- Results are not Replicate- Results are not

accurate until replicated by accurate until replicated by different experimentersdifferent experimenters

Sleeping Pill StudySleeping Pill Study

Hypothesis- 300mg of Super Sleeper Pills Hypothesis- 300mg of Super Sleeper Pills will help an otherwise healthy person will help an otherwise healthy person suffering from insomnia get sleep at nightsuffering from insomnia get sleep at night

Subjects- 2 groups of healthy people Subjects- 2 groups of healthy people suffering from insomniasuffering from insomnia

Independent Variable- Super Sleeper PillsIndependent Variable- Super Sleeper Pills Dependent Variable- amount of sleepDependent Variable- amount of sleep Control- Pills (I manipulate, some get it, Control- Pills (I manipulate, some get it,

some don’t)some don’t)

Sleeping Pill StudySleeping Pill Study

Control Group- group that does NOT Control Group- group that does NOT receive drug, receives placeboreceive drug, receives placebo

Experimental Group- group that Experimental Group- group that receives 300mg of Super Sleeper receives 300mg of Super Sleeper PillsPills

Results- what happened?Results- what happened?– Sleeping pills did or did not help Sleeping pills did or did not help

otherwise healthy people suffering from otherwise healthy people suffering from insomnia get a good night’s sleepinsomnia get a good night’s sleep

……take it one step take it one step furtherfurther What would we do if we wanted to see What would we do if we wanted to see

how much of Super Sleeper Pills were how much of Super Sleeper Pills were ideal?ideal?

2 or more independent variables and 2 or more independent variables and experimental groupsexperimental groups

Same hypothesis and subjectsSame hypothesis and subjects Independent Variable- 500mgs, Independent Variable- 500mgs,

300mgs, and 100mgs of Super Sleeper300mgs, and 100mgs of Super Sleeper Dependent Variable- amount of sleepDependent Variable- amount of sleep

……take it one step take it one step furtherfurther Control- amount of pillsControl- amount of pills Experimental Group- groups which receive Experimental Group- groups which receive

pillspills– Group A 500mg, Group B 300mg, Group C Group A 500mg, Group B 300mg, Group C

100mg100mg Control Group- group which does not Control Group- group which does not

receive Super Sleeper pills, instead receive receive Super Sleeper pills, instead receive placebo (used to compare against)placebo (used to compare against)

Results- what happenedResults- what happened– Say 100mg of Super Sleeper are ideal, 500mg Say 100mg of Super Sleeper are ideal, 500mg

and 300mg are too much and leave the patient and 300mg are too much and leave the patient still very tired in the amstill very tired in the am

ActivityActivity

Hindsight Bias worksheetHindsight Bias worksheet

Things that hinder usThings that hinder us

Sometimes we read into findings Sometimes we read into findings what we “expect” to happenwhat we “expect” to happen

Its not on purpose- its unconscious Its not on purpose- its unconscious human naturehuman nature

Hindsight Bias- we tend to believe, Hindsight Bias- we tend to believe, after learning an outcome, that we after learning an outcome, that we would have foreseen itwould have foreseen it– ““I knew it all along”I knew it all along”

ActivityActivity

Answer yes or no as to whether or not you Answer yes or no as to whether or not you like the following items. Then guess the like the following items. Then guess the percentage of people in class who agree with percentage of people in class who agree with you.you.

President ObamaPresident Obama Ice CreamIce Cream The OfficeThe Office Glenn High SchoolGlenn High School American IdolAmerican Idol Reading for funReading for fun

Things that hinder us Things that hinder us contcont Overconfidence- we tend to think Overconfidence- we tend to think

we know more then we dowe know more then we do– How did you do on your rate test?How did you do on your rate test?– How did you do on your Fact or How did you do on your Fact or

Falsehood test?Falsehood test?

Examples of Examples of Overconfidence and Overconfidence and Hindsight BiasHindsight Bias

““There is no reason for anyone to have a There is no reason for anyone to have a computer in their home” – Ken Olsen, President of computer in their home” – Ken Olsen, President of Digital Equipment Company, 1977Digital Equipment Company, 1977

““Ronald Reagan doesn’t have the ‘presidential Ronald Reagan doesn’t have the ‘presidential look’” – United Artists Executive when asked if look’” – United Artists Executive when asked if famous actor Ronald Reagan should be offered famous actor Ronald Reagan should be offered the starring role as president in 1964’s The Best the starring role as president in 1964’s The Best ManMan

““Heavier than air flying machines are impossible” Heavier than air flying machines are impossible” – Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, 1895– Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, 1895

““Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific advances” – Lee DeForest, future scientific advances” – Lee DeForest, inventor of the vacuuminventor of the vacuum

““A severe depression like that of 1920-1921 is A severe depression like that of 1920-1921 is outside the range of possibility” – Harvard outside the range of possibility” – Harvard Economic Weekly, November 16 1929Economic Weekly, November 16 1929

ActivityActivity

Group 1 Studies have found that a Group 1 Studies have found that a hard practice the day before a game hard practice the day before a game related to winning– explain whyrelated to winning– explain why

Group 2 Studies have found that a Group 2 Studies have found that a hard practice the day before a game hard practice the day before a game is related to losing– explain whyis related to losing– explain why

Things that hinder us Things that hinder us contcont Confirmation Bias- tendency for Confirmation Bias- tendency for

people to believe information that people to believe information that confirms their beliefs, and confirms their beliefs, and disregard information that does notdisregard information that does not

You would use facts that help You would use facts that help support your view and ignore facts support your view and ignore facts that disprove itthat disprove it– Can be conscious or unconsciousCan be conscious or unconscious

Random Sampling Random Sampling ActivityActivity Most M&M sample packs contain about 24 Most M&M sample packs contain about 24

M&Ms- in blue, brown, green, orange, red, M&Ms- in blue, brown, green, orange, red, and yellowand yellow

Draw the following chartDraw the following chart

BlueBlue BrownBrown GreeGreenn

OrangOrangee

RedRed YelloYelloww

Predicted/Predicted/

Observed Observed (yours)(yours)

Predicted/Predicted/

Observed Observed (partners)(partners)

Predicted/Predicted/

Observed Observed (class)(class)

Random Sampling Random Sampling Activity contActivity cont

Predict how many M&Ms each color will contain and Predict how many M&Ms each color will contain and write that in the first row. Then count from your write that in the first row. Then count from your bag and write down that beside it in the first row.bag and write down that beside it in the first row.

Decide if you would like to change your predictions. Decide if you would like to change your predictions. Write your new prediction in the second row. Then Write your new prediction in the second row. Then using averages write how many there are between using averages write how many there are between you an your partner beside it in the second rowyou an your partner beside it in the second row

Decide if you would like to change your predictions. Decide if you would like to change your predictions. Write your new prediction in the third row. Then Write your new prediction in the third row. Then using averages we will as a class see how many using averages we will as a class see how many there are of each color. Write that beside it in the there are of each color. Write that beside it in the third rowthird row

Random Sampling Random Sampling ResultsResults Blue 24%, Brown 13%, Green Blue 24%, Brown 13%, Green

16%, Orange 20%, Red 13%, and 16%, Orange 20%, Red 13%, and Yellow 14%Yellow 14%

Is the grass always Is the grass always greener on the other greener on the other side?side?If so how can we find out?If so how can we find out?

Now its time to put your skills to the Now its time to put your skills to the test. You are to develop a question test. You are to develop a question and go through the scientific process and go through the scientific process as if it was a true experiment- from as if it was a true experiment- from hypothesis to conclusion. (Obviously hypothesis to conclusion. (Obviously you will have to “guess” your you will have to “guess” your conclusion). Explain in detail how conclusion). Explain in detail how your experiment would be your experiment would be conducted.conducted.

SurveySurvey

Survey- method of research that involves Survey- method of research that involves asking subjects questions about feelings, asking subjects questions about feelings, opinions, or behavioropinions, or behavior

Pro- Gain detailed, personalized Pro- Gain detailed, personalized informationinformation

Con- Depending upon your method you Con- Depending upon your method you may not reach a representative samplemay not reach a representative sample– If you send a survey in the mail most people If you send a survey in the mail most people

will not take the time to fill it out and return it. will not take the time to fill it out and return it. You will not get an accurate representative You will not get an accurate representative samplesample

Con- Must avoid biasesCon- Must avoid biases

SurveySurvey

Take the survey Take the survey

Survey WordingSurvey Wording

Do participants know what a word means?Do participants know what a word means? #2 Do participants know what “monogamy” #2 Do participants know what “monogamy”

means? Does “sexual freedom” mean sexually means? Does “sexual freedom” mean sexually active, multiple partners, etc?active, multiple partners, etc?

Survey of 1255 adults by the New York Survey of 1255 adults by the New York American Museum of Natural History found that American Museum of Natural History found that 77% were interested in plants and trees but 77% were interested in plants and trees but only 39% were interested in botanyonly 39% were interested in botany

Nightline found out that in 1992 32% Americans Nightline found out that in 1992 32% Americans doubted that the Holocaust occurred. Once doubted that the Holocaust occurred. Once rephrased with an explanation of the word rephrased with an explanation of the word “Holocaust” 14% doubted that it occurred“Holocaust” 14% doubted that it occurred

Survey Wording contSurvey Wording cont

Does the question make assumptions Does the question make assumptions about participants? Will participants about participants? Will participants respond honestly? respond honestly?

#5 Does the wording “like most people” #5 Does the wording “like most people” imply that lying is normal and lead to a imply that lying is normal and lead to a higher percent of participants agreeing?higher percent of participants agreeing?

#6 Does the wording of the question imply #6 Does the wording of the question imply that people exercise? Will participants that people exercise? Will participants respond truthfully? Or higher?respond truthfully? Or higher?

Survey Wording contSurvey Wording cont

Does the question provide correct anchors?Does the question provide correct anchors? #7 and 8 participants with “500 miles” #7 and 8 participants with “500 miles”

probably responded to question 8 with lower probably responded to question 8 with lower estimates than participants with “3,000” milesestimates than participants with “3,000” miles

# 9 and 10 participants with “2 million” # 9 and 10 participants with “2 million” probably responded to question 10 with lower probably responded to question 10 with lower estimates than participants with “100 million”estimates than participants with “100 million”

The length of the Mississippi River is 2348 miles The length of the Mississippi River is 2348 miles and the population of Argentina is 36 millionand the population of Argentina is 36 million

Survey Wording contSurvey Wording cont

The order in which a question is phrased The order in which a question is phrased can alter resultscan alter results

In a national poll participants were asked In a national poll participants were asked “Should divorce be easier to obtain, more “Should divorce be easier to obtain, more difficult to obtain, or stay as it is?” 23% difficult to obtain, or stay as it is?” 23% said easier, 36% said more difficult, and said easier, 36% said more difficult, and 41% said the same41% said the same

Other participants were asked “Should Other participants were asked “Should divorce be easier, stay the same, or more divorce be easier, stay the same, or more difficult?” 26% said easier, 29% said difficult?” 26% said easier, 29% said same, 46 said more difficultsame, 46 said more difficult

Survey WordingSurvey Wording

Asked “Does the country have a Asked “Does the country have a health care problems or a health care health care problems or a health care crisis 55% said crisiscrisis 55% said crisis

Asked “Does the country have a Asked “Does the country have a health care crisis or health care health care crisis or health care problems 61% said problemsproblems 61% said problems

Advertisers ask “Which aspect of car Advertisers ask “Which aspect of car X do you like better then car Y” Then X do you like better then car Y” Then release results saying 90% prefer car release results saying 90% prefer car X X

Naturalistic Naturalistic ObservationObservation

Naturalistic Observation- research Naturalistic Observation- research method that involves studying method that involves studying subjects without their being aware subjects without their being aware that they’re being watchedthat they’re being watched

Pro- Ability to view normal behavior Pro- Ability to view normal behavior of subjects in their environment of subjects in their environment (because they are unaware)(because they are unaware)– Both humans and animals behave Both humans and animals behave

differently in the presence of an outsiderdifferently in the presence of an outsider Con- Observer can not talk or interact Con- Observer can not talk or interact

with subjectswith subjects

InterviewsInterviews

Interview- research method that Interview- research method that involves studying people face to face involves studying people face to face and asking questionsand asking questions

Pro- Ability to interact with subjectsPro- Ability to interact with subjects Con- Deciphering fact from fiction as Con- Deciphering fact from fiction as

subjects are likely on their best subjects are likely on their best behavior for the interviewerbehavior for the interviewer

Con- Interviewer must be aware of Con- Interviewer must be aware of biases and try to avoid them when biases and try to avoid them when posing questionsposing questions

Psychological TestsPsychological Tests

Psychological Tests- objective Psychological Tests- objective methods for observation and methods for observation and measurements of subjects in various measurements of subjects in various areasareas– Ex. IQ Tests, Inkblot TestsEx. IQ Tests, Inkblot Tests

Pro- Objective and the same for Pro- Objective and the same for everyoneeveryone

Con- Can not be used to predict or Con- Can not be used to predict or explain behaviorexplain behavior

Case Study Case Study

Case Study- research method that Case Study- research method that collects lengthy, detailed information collects lengthy, detailed information about a person’s backgroundabout a person’s background– Goal is to find out how the person Goal is to find out how the person

evolved to shed light on the issueevolved to shed light on the issue Pro- Gain detailed and specific Pro- Gain detailed and specific

informationinformation Con- Takes a lot of time and effort for Con- Takes a lot of time and effort for

only one persononly one person Con- Can not generalize about entire Con- Can not generalize about entire

population from one case studypopulation from one case study

Longitudinal Case Longitudinal Case StudyStudy

Longitudinal- method of research Longitudinal- method of research that studies the same people over an that studies the same people over an extended period of timeextended period of time

Pro- Gain very accurate and detailed Pro- Gain very accurate and detailed informationinformation

Con- Large commitment to be Con- Large commitment to be involved in a lengthy study over an involved in a lengthy study over an extended period of timeextended period of time

Con- CostlyCon- Costly

Cross-Sectional Case Cross-Sectional Case StudyStudy Cross Sectional- research method Cross Sectional- research method

that looks at different age groups at that looks at different age groups at the same timethe same time– Shortcut of a longitudinal studyShortcut of a longitudinal study

Pro- Detailed information in a short Pro- Detailed information in a short amount of time (not as lengthy as amount of time (not as lengthy as longitudinal)longitudinal)

Con- Doesn’t account for differences Con- Doesn’t account for differences in people of different age groupsin people of different age groups

Ethical GuidelinesEthical Guidelines

APA (American Psychological APA (American Psychological Association) sets ethical guidelines Association) sets ethical guidelines for all psychological experimentsfor all psychological experiments

1. Subjects MUST have the right to 1. Subjects MUST have the right to decline participation at ANY time decline participation at ANY time (before or during experiment)(before or during experiment)

2. Experimenters must be open and 2. Experimenters must be open and honest with subjects (most honest with subjects (most commonly done afterwards and is commonly done afterwards and is known as debriefing)known as debriefing)

Ethical Guidelines contEthical Guidelines cont

3. Information about subjects MUST 3. Information about subjects MUST remain confidential (before, during, and remain confidential (before, during, and after experiment)after experiment)

4. Experimenter must assess any possible 4. Experimenter must assess any possible risks or side effects the experiment has risks or side effects the experiment has caused subjects and provide them help caused subjects and provide them help (mental/emotional/physical)(mental/emotional/physical)

When it comes to animal research the When it comes to animal research the main ethical principle is the question is main ethical principle is the question is “Will the finding help humans?”“Will the finding help humans?”– Basically- is the benefit worth the harm?Basically- is the benefit worth the harm?

Predicting OutcomesPredicting Outcomes Problems with predicting outcomes- example Presidential Problems with predicting outcomes- example Presidential

ElectionsElections First need a representative sample- but this is hard to getFirst need a representative sample- but this is hard to get Can’t just use Americans (only about 70% are registered, Can’t just use Americans (only about 70% are registered,

and only 86% of them actually vote)and only 86% of them actually vote) Must use valid methods- most polling companies use phone Must use valid methods- most polling companies use phone

calls. This eliminates those without a phone (many people calls. This eliminates those without a phone (many people today only have cell phones, not landlines)today only have cell phones, not landlines)

Most polling companies call during the day. This eliminates Most polling companies call during the day. This eliminates voters not at home during the day- it mainly gets retirees voters not at home during the day- it mainly gets retirees and housewivesand housewives

Exit polls (ask people when leaving the polling place) seem Exit polls (ask people when leaving the polling place) seem to be the best, but not everyone wants to talk to pollsters. to be the best, but not everyone wants to talk to pollsters. For ex. 2004 exit polls had John Kerry beating George W For ex. 2004 exit polls had John Kerry beating George W Bush. Did Bush voters not want to talk? Not sure of Bush. Did Bush voters not want to talk? Not sure of decision?decision?

Predicting Outcomes Predicting Outcomes contcont

Predicting Outcomes Predicting Outcomes contcont Flip a coin 6 timesFlip a coin 6 times Students predict the outcome Students predict the outcome

before each flipbefore each flip

Randomness? Randomness? Correlations?Correlations? Predictions of coin flips probably Predictions of coin flips probably

looked something like this:looked something like this:– H T T H T HH T T H T H

Would you say your prediction is Would you say your prediction is more probable than:more probable than:– H H H H H HH H H H H H

Actually both are just as likelyActually both are just as likely

Randomness? Randomness? Correlation? cont.Correlation? cont.

The odds of The odds of being dealt being dealt either one of either one of these hands these hands is exactly the is exactly the samesame

1 in 1 in 2,598,960 2,598,960

Other illusionary Other illusionary correlationscorrelations More accidents occur at home. So More accidents occur at home. So

are homes dangerous. No, we spend are homes dangerous. No, we spend more time at home so naturally more more time at home so naturally more accidents should occur thereaccidents should occur there

The elevator always seems to be The elevator always seems to be going in the wrong directiongoing in the wrong direction

It always rains after you wash your It always rains after you wash your carcar

Understanding ResultsUnderstanding Results

A recent survey found that people who ate A recent survey found that people who ate Frosted Flakes as a kid had ½ the cancer Frosted Flakes as a kid had ½ the cancer rate of those who never ate the cereal. rate of those who never ate the cereal. Conversely those who are oatmeal were 4 Conversely those who are oatmeal were 4 times as likely to develop cancer. Why?times as likely to develop cancer. Why?

Cancer tends to be a disease that occurs Cancer tends to be a disease that occurs later in life. Those who ate Frosted Flakes later in life. Those who ate Frosted Flakes are younger (this cereal hasn’t been around are younger (this cereal hasn’t been around for a long time). Those who ate oatmeal for a long time). Those who ate oatmeal were older (it was a typical breakfast years were older (it was a typical breakfast years ago)ago)

Understanding Results Understanding Results contcont

National police reports show that as ice cream National police reports show that as ice cream consumption increases, the crime rate consumption increases, the crime rate increases, and vice versa. Why? Cause and increases, and vice versa. Why? Cause and effect?effect?

Both ice cream consumption and crime are Both ice cream consumption and crime are related to a third hidden variablerelated to a third hidden variable

Outside temperatureOutside temperature When its warm people enjoy ice cream moreWhen its warm people enjoy ice cream more Also when its warm more crimes are Also when its warm more crimes are

committed- stays light longer, people are committed- stays light longer, people are outdoors more, windows and doors are open.outdoors more, windows and doors are open.

During the winter people eat less ice cream and During the winter people eat less ice cream and less crimes are committedless crimes are committed