Requena & Stanek (2013) - Secularization in Poland and Spain after the democratic transition: A cohort analysis

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DOI: 10.1177/0268580912466551 2013 28: 84International Sociology

Miguel Requena and Mikolaj Stanekanalysis

Secularization in Poland and Spain after the democratic transition: A cohort

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Secularization in Poland and Spain after the democratic transition: A cohort analysis

Miguel RequenaNational Distance Education University (UNED), Spain

Mikolaj StanekSpanish National Research Council (CSIC), Spain

AbstractThe objective of this article is to determine the extent to which the evolution of religiosity in Spain and Poland in their post-democratic transition periods has been affected by the process of generational replacement. For Spain data are drawn from several surveys carried out by the Spanish Centre for Sociological Studies (CIS) between 1980 and 1996. For Poland the data come from the Polish General Social Survey and ISSP covering 19922008. Results show two radically different patterns of religious change. The fall in religious practice in Spain observed throughout the first 16 years after the political transition was due mostly to the inter-cohort change that affects each new generation born after 1950. In the case of Poland, post-transition change is less marked and due mainly to decline in religious practice on the individual level. The study also observes that the cohorts of Poles born during and after the fall of communism are significantly less religious than older cohorts.

KeywordsCohorts, Poland, post-authoritarian societies, religiosity, Spain

There is a great deal of empirical evidence that demonstrates that in most European countries institutional religion has experienced a sharp decline over the past few decades (Halman and Draulans, 2006; Voas, 2009). The advance of secularization in many European societies is distinctive in light of the still vigorous religious life on other con-tinents (Bruce, 2002; Caplow, 1985; Filali-Ansary, 1996; Sasaki and Suzuki, 1987). This

Corresponding author:Mikolaj Stanek, Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Centro de Ciencias Humanas y Sociales, C/ Albasanz, 2628, Despacho 3F3, Madrid, CP28037, Spain. Email: [email protected]

466551 ISS28110.1177/0268580912466551International SociologyRequena and Stanek2013

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Requena and Stanek 85

has led some authors to suggest a reformulation of the secularization thesis, indicating that Europe is not so much a pioneer of a universal phenomenon, but rather an exception (Berger, 1999; Berger et al., 2008; Davie, 2007). In any case, it should also be noted that comparative studies have revealed that the progress of secularization varies greatly across European countries, so the decreased social significance of religion on this conti-nent cannot be considered homogeneous or unilinear (Bruce, 2002; Casanova, 1994; Pickel, 2009). Over the last few decades the field of sociology of religion has put consid-erable effort into providing an accurate explanation for the diversity of secularization trajectories in Europe. Some researchers have suggested that political transformations determine the framework within which religious life develops on a national level (Davie, 2000; Martin, 1978). Therefore, it is particularly interesting to analyse the development of religiosity in European countries that have experienced profound changes in their political systems, as is the case in Poland and Spain.

Until now analyses of religiosity in both countries have predominantly centred on the immediate effects (period effects) of the change in political context linked to the transi-tion to a democratic system (Mariaski, 2011; Prez-Agote, 2010; Requena, 2005; Requena and Stanek, 2012; Tomka, 2011). However, societal change can occur not only because individuals change their behaviour in a specific moment, but also because of an ongoing massive process of personal replacement in which older cohorts are succeeded by younger ones with different patterns of behaviour or attitudes (Ryder, 1965). Distinguishing between period effect and cohort effects is fundamental to understanding the sources of social change in both countries.

The general aim of this article is to determine the extent to which religious evolution in later cohorts varies relative to the kind of relationship that existed between the authori-tarian state and the institutionalized religion in two contrasting European cases: Spain, which for a large part of the 20th century saw a close alliance between the Catholic Church and the Francoist political dictatorship, and Poland, where the Catholic Church was clearly in conflict with the communist regime. To be more specific, this article examines how the replacement of older generations by newer ones that were socialized during the decline of the authoritarian regimes or in a non-authoritarian political context has affected religiosity in both countries during the first 16 years after their political transitions. Our analytical strategy is twofold: first, we measure the differences in levels of religiosity among cohorts socialized during the authoritarian regimes and during the beginning of democratic periods; second, by using decomposition techniques and logis-tic regression modelling we analyse how religiosity has been affected by the change in generational composition in both societies over approximately one and a half decades after the end of the Franco regime in Spain and the fall of communism in Poland.

Background

Despite increasing criticism, the secularization theory still offers a useful explicative framework of the current processes of religious change (Bruce, 2011; Norris and Inglehart, 2004). This theoretical perspective claims that the diminishing significance of religion in social and individual life is a consequence of an inherent tension between modernity and religion (Mller, 2011; Pickel, 2011). In this sense, secularization is


86 International Sociology 28(1)

understood to be part of a broad societal process of modernization involving a series of interrelated phenomena, such as technological change, the development of the modern state, the spread of rational-scientific thought, the process of urbanization and the disap-pearance of small local communities (Bruce, 2002). Given a context of modernization, the secularization thesis asserts that more recent cohorts are less religious than earlier cohorts at the same age. In other words, the advances of modernization affect successive cohorts differently, leading younger generations to have lower levels of religiosity than their predecessors (Firebaugh and Harley, 1991; Voas, 2010). Under the circumstances of an ongoing modernization, the demographic process of cohort replacement itself fosters the secularization.

The intergenerational variation in the levels of religiosity of successive cohorts can be attributed to both structural changes and contextual transformations that occur in a given society (Voas and Doebler, 2011). First of all, the differences in the degree of seculariza-tion between generations are linked to the transformations in the composition of the successive cohorts brought about by increased levels of education, larger percentages of urban population or greater participation by women in the labour market (De Graaf and Te Grotenhuis, 2008). Second, along with changes in the composition of the population, religiosity is affected by societal and contextual factors that cause religion and its institu-tions to lose the capacity to influence how certain institutions function (the state, public administrations, educational system, mass media, etc.), as well as to control and deter-mine the behaviour, beliefs and attitudes of individuals (Chaves, 1994; Dobbelaere, 2002). Although the social significance of the religious sphere has decreased for the entire population to a greater or lesser degree, the change is sharpest among the youngest generations. Individuals experiences at ages of greatest cognitive development, when they are not yet fully mature, play a decisive role in their later ideas and behaviour (Hagenaars, 1990; Mannheim, 1952), particularly in their religious beliefs and practices. From this perspective, intergenerational metabolism itself is the decisive argument to explain this social change: it is not necessary for a radical change on the individual level to occur in order for societies to change, as younger generations start to take the place of the older ones.

Many studies carried out in Western European countries, such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and West Germany, indicate that the advance of seculariza-tion is increasingly evident as successive cohorts are socialized in contexts in which the link between religion and other important social spheres has been weakened (De Graaf and Te Grotenhuis, 2008; Kaufmann et al., 2012; Voas, 2009, 2010; Wolf, 2008). Nevertheless, the continuity of the secularization process associated with the succes-sion of cohorts subject to societal processes of modernization is not so clear in socie-ties which undergo profound and sudden political and social changes (Wohlrab-Sahr, 2011). The contextual factors of a given historical moment, such as coercive seculari-zation or democratization of social life, could accelerate or delay the process of reli-gious change associated with cohort replacement. For example, some recent studies indicate that one of the causes of the religious revival in Romania and the former GDR is caused by generational change as new cohorts socialized within a context of reli-gious freedom replace those educated during the period of forced secularization (Lois, 2011; Voicu and Constantin, 2012). Therefore, countries that have transitioned from



authoritarianism to democracy provide particularly interesting case studies in which to observe and analyse this interaction between cohort effects and period effects. Democratic transition after a prolonged authoritarian regime represents a decisive change in the context in which successive generations are socialized and can be con-sidered a key factor in the acceleration or delay of secularization processes. This con-textual change could be even more decisive if in the past there had been a close positive link or manifest antagonism between religion and politics.

During the second half of the 20th century Spain and Poland could be considered paradigmatic cases of two models of authoritarian systems in which institutional religion played radically opposing roles. In Spain, the close alliance between the Catholic Church and the Franco regime translated into a religious hegemony imposed on many aspects of social life in which Catholicism became a fundamental symbolic instrument to legitimize the dictatorship (Box, 2010). The Catholic Church acquired extraordinary influence over large swathes of the public sphere and private life, including a monopoly on teaching religious doctrine and on moral direction. Although in the 1960s and 1970s the ideologi-cal pressure had already started to diminish, the death of Franco in 1975 and the subse-quent transformation of the political system in Spain substantially changed the relationship between the Catholic Church and the state. Although it maintained certain privileges over other religions (for example, funding for educational and pastoral activi-ties), the political and social influence of the Catholic Church substantially diminished (Casanova, 1994; Linz, 1993).

Historically, in Poland the strong association between Catholicism and national iden-tity was consolidated after the country was partitioned by the three neighbouring empires. In the late 1940s the imposition of a totalitarian communist regime monopolized by a single party led to a forced social, economic and cultural transformation in Poland (Varga, 1995). The fact that it was a foreign power imposing the totalitarian and atheist regime converted Catholicism into an ideology of national unity once again, with the Church as its main guardian. This situation converted the Church into a space in which civil society developed, further reinforced by its open and inclusive attitude towards all currents of political opposition, regardless of their ideologies (Mach, 2000). However, the start of the political transition in 1989 and 1990 created a new situation for the Polish Catholic Church in which it gradually lost its position as the repository of national identity.

The different positions of the Catholic Church within the political regimes in Poland and Spain have had very different implications for the later development of religious behaviour in those countries. For instance, the Spanish detached themselves from Catholicism as political coercion was relaxed. Period effect analysis shows that seculari-zation in Spain was especially intense during the political transition in the second half of 1970s (Requena, 2005; Requena and Stanek, 2012). In contrast, in post-communist Poland the memory of the Catholic Churchs opposition to the regime helped maintain high levels of religious practice in the first years after the fall of communism (Requena and Stanek, 2012). Nevertheless, as the new system stabilizes, it is to be expected that the integrating function of Catholicism and its symbolic attraction will decrease and cease to slow the religious change associated with modernization, which manifests in a gradual decrease in levels of religiosity (Bruce, 1999; Martin, 2011).



Given these antecedents, this work analyses the religious change that occurred in Spain and Poland in the years following their democratic transitions. In addition to com-paring the magnitude of the change in both countries, our specific objective is to figure out how much of it can be due to individual religious change (within cohorts) and how much can be attributed to generational replacement (across cohorts). To do this we stud-ied the change in religious practice over 16 years, starting two years after the democratic transitions 1980 in Spain, two years after the democratic Constitution of 1978 was approved; and 1992 in Poland, two years after the first completely democratic elections were held in 1990.1 Our expectations, based on the thesis of the relevance of the inter-relation between religion and politics for religious change, are: (1) that in equivalent periods of time, there has been less religious change in Poland than in Spain; (2) that after the democratic transitions generational change has been stronger than individual change in Spain, where the Catholic Church was strongly implicated with the authoritar-ian political regime and younger cohorts socialized during the decline of the Francoist dictatorship have distanced themselves from institutional religion since their youth; (3) that in Poland, where Catholicism was a crucial element in the opposition and resistance to the totalitarian political regime, generational change has been lower and possibly weaker than individual change because younger generations perceived a positive link between Catholicism and political freedom, did not feel the political urge to move away from religion and, accordingly, their contribution to societal religious change should have been less intense than in Spain; and (4) that the religious behaviour of cohorts socialized after the democratic transition is significantly different than that of cohorts socialized in authoritarian contexts.

Data and methods

The empirical information that we worked with is taken from a series of cross-sec-tional data based on national sample surveys in both countries. The data about Spain come from four studies carried out by the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) covering 1980, 1985, 1992 and 1996. The data available for Poland cover 1992, 1997, 2003 and 2008 and were obtained from the Polish General Social Survey (Polski Generalny Sonda Spoeczny, PGSS), with the exception of the 2003 study which was carried out within the ISSP (International Social Survey Programme).2 The selection of data sources was aimed at creating a comparative framework for both countries, so for each country four points were selected separated by approximately equal intervals of time (between four and six years). Although, obviously, it would be possible to analyse more recent data for Spain, the 16 years considered in both cases allow the intensity of religious change to be gauged over equivalent periods of exactly the same duration. The data used for Spain come from CIS Data Base studies 1237 (N = 2489), 1456 (N = 2485), 2001 (N = 2486), and 2230 (N = 2485). The data for Poland have been taken from PGSS 1992 (N = 1647), PGSS 1997 (N = 2401), ISSP 2003 (N = 1277) and PGSS 2008 (N = 1203).

For theoretical as well as methodological reasons, the present analysis is based on religious practice, understood as taking part in mass. On the one hand, religious practice is one of the most conspicuous aspects of any religion, and it can be interpreted as a



ritual for maintaining the institutional creed (Prez-Agote et al., 1993). This makes it ideal for measuring change in church-oriented religiosity. On the other hand, using reli-gious practice is also relevant from the methodological point of view because it is the most visible aspect of religiosity and, consequently, the easiest to research through sur-veys, producing the most reliable kind of information for researching change over time. This study identifies as practising Catholics those people who go to mass at least once a month, which is the criterion normally used in studies on religiosity (Mller, 2009). The indicator of religious practice is available in all the surveys mentioned above and the scales used to measure attendance to mass in Spain and Poland are similar, facilitating the homogenization process.

After presenting a summary of descriptive statistics which compares the magnitude and speed of religious change in both countries, two main analysis techniques are used in our study. First, using the cumulative data set for all the years examined, we carried out a decomposition based on a simple regression model to distinguish the two proxi-mate sources of overall or aggregate change in religious practice in both countries: net change among individuals and population replacement (Firebaugh, 1997). Due to the categorical and binary nature of our dependent variable, we used logistic regression to estimate for each country a model of the odds of religious practice between practising Catholics (PC) and the rest of population (1 PC) according to the following equation:

PC/(1 PC) = exp [b0 + b1(YEAR) + b2(COHORT) + e].

This regression model permits us to estimate intra-cohort and inter-cohort change throughout the periods considered. In the formula, b0 is the model intercept, b1 is the estimated slope for yearly change controlled for cohort, b2 is the estimated slope of the difference between adjacent cohorts and e is the error term. The above equation takes the exponential form and estimates the odds of religious practice. It also can be expressed in logarithmic form in order to estimate the logit (the natural logarithm of the odds) that an individual will be a practising Catholic:

logit (PC/[1 PC]) = Ln (PC/[1 PC]) = b0 + b1(YEAR) + b2(COHORT) + e.

Firebaugh (1997) showed that overall change can be decomposed through the fol-lowing two expressions: b1 (YRT YR1) for the estimated contribution of change within cohorts or individual change; and b2 (CT C1) for the estimated contribution of change across cohorts, where YRT is the year of the final survey, YR1 is the year of the first one, CT is the average year of birth for the sample in the last survey and C1 is the average year of birth for the sample in the first one. These two components can be added to calculate overall change. Since we used logistic regression, we decomposed the logit (that is, the odds ratio logarithm) of religious practice between two years (the overall change) into the two aforementioned components using the following equation:

Ln [PCT/(1 PCT) / PC1/(1 PC1)] = b1 (YRT YR1) + b2 (CT C1).3



The target of this first step is mainly exploratory: knowing with some precision how much of the change can be attributed to individual religious change and to cohort com-position during the specified periods in both countries and, to the extent possible, disre-garding age effects. Unfortunately, it appears that there is no fool proof statistical formula for distinguishing age, period and cohort effects due to the well-known identification problem that plagues this kind of analysis (Glenn, 2005).4 Therefore it was necessary to employ informal means of inspecting data and assessing those effects. For reasons explained below, we think that the data from Spain and Poland legitimately allow us to ignore age-specific effects in the explanation of aggregate change of religiosity in both countries.

Second, in order to separate the effect of intergenerational change from other struc-tural factors, a logistic regression model for each country was estimated, which, in addi-tion to the year of survey (YR) and cohort (C),5 included a series of control variables representing sex (S), education (ED), employment status (ES) and the size of the munici-pality (SM) in which the people surveyed resided. The model can be expressed as follows:

[PC/(1 PC)] = exp [b0 + b1(C) + b2(YR) + b3(S) + b4(ED) + b5(ES) + b6(SM)].

The secularization thesis predicts that urbanization and a general increase in the level of education are crucial factors in the diminishing social significance of religion (Wallis and Bruce, 1998). Indeed, the improvement in the general level of education and the processes of urbanization in Spain and Poland throughout the second half of the 20th century could be considered major determinants of religious change in both countries. In addition, there is extensive empirical evidence that sex continues to determine the differences in levels of religious participation in modern societies (Tilley, 2003). The aim of this second exercise is simply to analyse cohort and period effects when the structural factors that advance the process of secularization are held constant.

Results

In the 16 years after the democratic transitions in Spain (19801996) and Poland (19922008) there was a significant drop in levels of religious practice. However, the decrease was much more pronounced in Spain where the number of practising Catholics dropped 14% while in Poland it only dropped 7% meaning that the odds ratios of being a practising Catholic in Spain were 0.56 between the end and start of the period, compared to 0.71 in Poland. In both countries the change in attending mass over the time periods analysed, that is, the difference between this indicator at the start and end of the periods, is statistically significant (Z test, p < .000 in both cases). But given that the level of religiosity at the beginning of these periods was lower in Spain than in Poland, not only was the absolute loss of religiosity greater in Spain but also the rela-tive loss (28.7%) compared to Poland (9.5%). In other words, during these 16 years practising Catholics in Spain decreased at an annual rate of 2.1%, while in Poland the decrease was only 0.6%.



Table 1 shows the basic data related to change in levels of religious practice in both countries. Because the focus of this work is on cohort replacement, the data are organ-ized to compare the total change with the change in each of the cohorts included in the Spanish and Polish samples. Simply observing these percentages suggests that reli-gious change was not only greater in Spain than Poland, but also that the impact of generational change was stronger in the former: that is, the average change among cohorts was greater.

Table 1 also includes the decomposition using logistic regression of the logit of religious practice into its two components: individual or intra-cohort change and intergenerational change. This decomposition reveals that the Spanish have experienced much more inter-cohort change (0.411) than individual change (0.155). For some reason, the religious distance among adjacent cohorts was large in Spain, while individual religious switching was not very important in this period. Interestingly, things were quite different in Poland, where change within cohorts (0.231) contributed more to the total change than across cohort change (0.131). In Poland, the level of church attendance of adjacent generations was not as different as in Spain, and there was much more individual religious change than generational renewal.

It is worth mentioning that in both countries the slopes for cross-cohort and indi-vidual components of change are both negative (Spain: b1 = 0.010 and b2 = 0.033;

Table 1. Within cohort, cross-cohort and total change in percentage of practising Catholics in Spain (19801996) and Poland (19922008).

Cohorts Spain Poland Changes

1980 1996 1992 2008 Spain Poland

% N % N % N % N 19801996 19922008

Before 1901 45.7% 35 19011910 71.8% 177 33.3% 15 38.4% 19111920 66.9% 299 67.2% 116 78.7% 127 100.0% 2 0.4% 21.3%19211930 61.2% 405 62.0% 287 73.1% 201 76.5% 81 0.8% 3.4%19311940 56.4% 408 53.1% 356 72.6% 307 80.3% 132 3.3% 7.7%19411950 40.5% 489 41.2% 337 76.0% 242 71.2% 184 0.8% 4.8%19511960 26.9% 472 24.5% 413 75.7% 313 65.6% 273 2.5% 10.2%19611970 27.9% 129 16.2% 505 72.9% 258 69.9% 196 11.7% 3.0%19711980 20.0% 431 74.6% 118 59.1% 193 15.5%19811990 60.4% 212 All cohorts 49.0% 2414 34.8% 2029 74.5% 1566 67.5% 1273 14.1%*** 7.0%***Average within cohort change (weighted by size) 4.1% 2.7%Estimated change in religious practice within and across cohorts: logistic regressionOverall change: ln [(PT/(1 PT)/(P1/(1 P1)] = b1 (YRT YR1) + b2 (CT C1) = 0.566 0.362Within-cohort: b1 (YRT YR1) = 0.155* 0.231*Cross-cohort: b2 (CT C1) = 0.411*** 0.131***

***p < .000; ** p < .01.Note: Practising Catholics are those who attend mass at least once a month.Source: CIS Data Base (studies 1237 and 2230) for Spain and Polish General Social Survey 1992 and ISSP 2008 for Poland.



Poland, b1 = 0.014 and b2 = 0.009). In other words, during the post-transitional periods in Spain and Poland population replacement reinforced individual change, and vice versa. On the one hand, according to the same-sign slope rule (Firebaugh, 1997), it means that overall change outpaced individual change, something which usually produces a pervasive sensation of very fast religious change. On the other hand, the fact that both coefficients are negative practically allows significant age effects in the data for these periods to be discarded or at least to conclude that age effects are smaller than cohort effects. Under the same-signs rule, when both slopes are negative age effects should be smaller than cohort effects whenever aggregate change outpaces indi-vidual change.

Moreover, the fact that the aggregate level of religious practice has significantly dwindled in both countries, despite the prima facie positive relationship between age and religiosity, strongly suggests powerful cohort effects, at least in Spain. Careful intra-cohort data inspection (Figure 1) will be helpful here. In Spain, the lack of change in religious practice within the several cohorts points to the fact that the fall in religious practice has resulted mostly from cohort succession. The pattern is much more complex in the Polish case where we already know that intra-cohort change outpaces inter-cohort change. In any case, it should be noted that only Polish cohorts born in 19211930 and in 19311940 have experienced increased church attendance during this 16-year period, whereas none of the remaining cohorts analysed in this study (that is, Poles born between 1941 and 1980) has increased religious practice. This pattern can be indicative of period effects in the Polish case.

1911-1920 1921-1930 1931-1940 1941-1950

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Figure 1. Percentage of practising Catholics in Spain (19801996) and Poland (19922008) by birth cohort.Source: CIS Data Base for Spain and Polish General Social Survey and ISSP 2003 for Poland (see text for specific studies).



Table 2 shows two logistic regression models which attempt to expand previous analyses of the intra-cohort and inter-cohort change in Spain and Poland, adjusting for factors which may have affected religious behaviour such as sex, educational level, size of municipality and employment situation.6 In other words, we estimate how church

Table 2. Log-odds from logistic regression on religious practice in Spain and Poland (dependent variable: attending mass at least once a month).

Spain Poland

Cohort (ref. Spain: 19111920; ref. Poland: 19211930)19211930 0.33*** (0.101) 19311940 0.48*** (0.101) 0.14 (0.129)19411950 1.14*** (0.104) 0.06 (0.127)19511960 1.83*** (0.109) 0.14 (0.127)19611970 2.15*** (0.117) 0.11 (0.133)19711980 2.07*** (0.144) 0.25* (0.136)19811990 0.56*** (0.161)Survey year Spain (ref. 1980) 1985 0.12 (0.068) 1992 0.11 (0.071) 1996 0.22** (0.071) Survey year Poland (ref. 1992) 1997 0.07 (0.081)2003 0.13 (0.096)2008 0.24** (0.093)Women 1.05*** (0.055) 0.71*** (0.060)Educational level (ref. no education) Primary/first grade of secondary 0.17 (0.095) 0.09 (0.204)Second grade of secondary 0.27*** (0.085) 0.05 (0.105)Tertiary 0.54*** (0.098) 0.03 (0.087)Employment situation (ref. non-active) Employed 0.30*** (0.059) 0.13 (0.075)Unemployed 0.57*** (0.094) 0.57*** (0.112)Habitat (ref. under 10,000) 10,00150,000 0.50*** (0.07) 0.62*** (0.103)50,001100,000 0.74*** (0.102) 0.85*** (0.074)over 100,000 0.79*** (0.06) 1.02*** (0.158)N 9,005 6,022Intercept 1.27*** (0.133) 1.36*** (0.198)Log likelihood 5150.555 31378.036Pseudo R 0.159 0.064

Standard errors in parentheses.***p < .000; **p < .01; *p < .05.Source: CIS Data Base for Spain and Polish General Social Survey and ISSP 2003 for Poland (see text for specific studies).



attendance probabilities vary in relation to consecutive cohorts and periods while keep-ing other variables related to structural and individual characteristics constant. As expected, log-odd coefficients estimated for Spain show a steady trend of decline in religiosity across cohorts. Each Spanish generation born between 1921 and 1960 is considerably less religious than the previous one. This observation confirms the results of the bivariate analysis already presented in Figure 1 and of the decomposition analy-sis. On the other hand, our model shows no significant differences between the two youngest Spanish cohorts, socialized during the political transition and immediately afterwards (19611970 and 19711980), even though both are still considerably less religious than those born in the 1950s and earlier. The coefficients estimated for survey years show a relatively small additive period effect once the rest of factors are con-trolled. Specifically, between 1980 and 1992 the overall level of religious practice remained steady and differences between each survey year are not statistically signifi-cant. In terms of period effects, the probability of church attendance only decreased, but not very much, in the final years (19921996).

Consistent with the previous exercises results, the logistic regression model for Poland displays a much more irregular pattern of religious practice when compared with Spain (cf. with Figure 1). First, there are no considerable differences in religious attend-ance among cohorts born before 1971. Second, differences between coefficients indicate that Poles born after 1970 are much less likely than older cohorts to attend mass on a regular basis. Apart from this generational gap, our results also show that Poles born in the 1980s are relatively less religious in comparison to the generation born in the previ-ous decade. This may suggest that among Poles who have grown up in democracy each new generation tends to be less involved in religion than the previous one. This trend can be important to the extent that it may represent a potential secularizing force which could cause a general religious decline in Polish society over the coming years. Finally, our analysis also confirms that much of the change in religious practice is due to period effects (intra-cohort change). The evolution of the log-odds of church attendance over time reflects a successively decreasing trend. In addition, estimates show that period-related decline was especially intense between 2003 and 2008. To sum up, in the new political context of post-transitional Poland two overlapping processes are taking place: a negative period effect on religious participation, combined with a negative cohort effect, which exclusively affects the religious involvement of post-communist cohorts.

Discussion

The objective of this article is to analyse the dynamics of religious change after the recent democratic transitions in Spain and Poland under the following hypotheses: (1) that the intense interaction between religion and politics has dominated religious change in both countries and (2) that the democratization of their political systems has had dif-ferent influences on the changing levels of religiosity in both societies. The comparison between Spain and Poland is particularly interesting due to the fact that both countries have a long and deeply rooted Catholic tradition and both have had authoritarian systems imposed upon them during long periods of the second half of the 20th century (Casanova, 1994). However, the institutionalized religion has played very different roles in the



recent histories of both countries. It is to be expected that these differing roles would have produced equally differing processes of religious change that are driven by very different generational dynamics in each case.

In order to empirically support our interpretation of religious change in these coun-tries, we have analysed cohorts and attempted to specifically determine how much of the religious transformation can be explained by change that simultaneously affects the entire population (period effect) and how much depends on the succession of cohorts socialized in authoritarian and post-authoritarian contexts (cohort effect). If the interpre-tation of religious change that we present in this work is correct, in the years following the transition to democracy religious change should be more intense in Spain than in Poland; the generational effects should have been greater than the period effects in Spain; and the impact of population replacement should have been smaller than individual change in Poland.

As we have been able to prove, since the dictatorship ended in Spain and the country transitioned to a new political regime, the generational effect on religious change has grown over time: the negative effects on levels of religious practice have been greater for each successive generation. Our interpretation of the powerful generational dynamics of religious change in this country is primarily based on the Catholic Churchs commitment to the symbolic construction and political legitimization of the Franco dictatorship, as well as on the negative effects that commitment has had on the religiosity of generations that grew up during the final stages of the dictatorship and that opposed it and drove the democratic transition. Note that the intensity of the distancing from the Catholic Church is already quite noticeable in Spanish cohorts born between 1940 and 1950, that is, those who were adolescents in the 1960s and who became adults in the 1970s. Not only were these cohorts witnesses to but also protagonists of the intense social and economic mod-ernization that in those years led to the final political decomposition of the Franco dicta-torship. Three characteristics distinguish these cohorts: in their early youth they acquired a very clear understanding of the Catholic Churchs support for the Franco regime, they matured in a social and cultural context that was highly critical of the Churchs commit-ment to the dictatorship, and they saw the arrival of democracy at the start of their adult life. This is why they noticeably distanced themselves from the institutional religion and have very consistently maintained that distance throughout their adult lives. Without exception, cohorts born in Spain after 1950 have followed the same pattern towards the Catholic Church that had begun with the cohort born in the 1940s: maintaining the same distance, lack of interest and a critical attitude to the Catholic Church, leading to decreas-ing aggregate levels of religious practice.

The results of our analysis show that in the Spanish case the generational dynamics of religious change clearly and by a wide margin surpass individual dynamics during the post-transition to democracy. Although period effects could have been important right around the time of political transition (Requena and Stanek, 2012), once the democratic regime was implemented and consolidated, on an individual level the Spanish have barely changed the level of religious commitment they acquired before adulthood. This is perfectly in line with the basic premise of the cohort analysis (Glenn, 2005; Mannheim, 1952; Ryder, 1965) which sees that the dissimilar socialization of cohorts born in differ-ent historical moments is decisive in creating the attitudes and behaviours that they will



follow in their adult lives. In this regard, it must be emphasized that all cohorts born after 1950 have been socialized and grew up in a political context marked by a growing dis-tance from institutional religion and in a sociocultural environment increasingly favour-able to secularization, thanks to the advance of socioeconomic modernization and the well-known opposition to the Catholic Church involved in some of these contemporary processes of social change (Requena, 2008).

It is not surprising, therefore, that during the period analysed in this work the genera-tional dynamics of intense religious change is more evident in the youngest cohorts that is, among those who were born between 1961 and 1980. The world view of these generations who grew up and matured in democracy is largely incompatible with the doctrine of the Catholic Church, which has ultimately been unable to free itself from the legacy of its political commitment to the Franco dictatorship. In addition, these power-ful dynamics of religious change between generations have allowed Spain to quickly join the general secularization trend characteristic of other European countries such as France, the United Kingdom or the Netherlands and diminished the practice of Catholicism in the country to unprecedented levels.

In accordance with our premises, the evolution of the religious phenomenon in Poland after the democratic transition follows a very different pattern than in Spain. As mentioned earlier, the establishment of the communist system in Poland converted the Catholic Church into the institution most capable of integrating and mobilizing large segments of society to oppose (passively and actively) the autocratic regime. Moreover, in the increasingly confrontational climate that existed before the Polish democratic transition, the communist regime saw the Church as the institution most capable of stabilizing the explosive political and social situation in the country and, therefore, it become the main political interlocutor and de facto representative of society when dealing with the authorities (Eberts, 1998). In terms of our interpreta-tion of the political and religious change, the unifying role of the institutional religion in opposition to the communist regime created a specific context of socialization that profoundly influenced broad sectors of the population. It is precisely this specific socialization context, in which the Catholic Church embodied and concentrated the political resistance to communism, which explains the absence of significant cohort effects on religious change between generations who reached adulthood during the communist period. In contrast to what occurred in Spain, the Polish generations socialized under communism did not develop a political-ideological hostility towards the institutional religion, but rather tied their hopes and aspirations for political lib-eration and change to Catholicism. In addition, the relative homogeneity of religious behaviour and relatively high levels of religious practice in the cohorts socialized during communism allow other characteristics of religious change in Poland to be compared: the close tie between the Catholic Church and national identity and resist-ance to communism contributed to counteracting the negative effects of seculariza-tion on religious practice derived from the religious policy of the communist regime and the structural changes associated with intense industrialization and urbanization (Bruce, 2002; Varga, 1995).

However, the uniform religious behaviour of generations who shared the experience of growing up and maturing in a communist context has been broken by those born in the



1970s and 1980s, that is, the cohorts socialized during and after the collapse of commu-nism in Poland. Our analysis has revealed important differences between the communist and post-communist generations, with the former being significantly more religious. Furthermore, this generation gap tends to become sharper with the succession of cohorts: Poles born in the 1970s have significantly higher levels of religious practice than those born in the following decade. Along these same lines, generational religious change has been reinforced by a decrease in religious practice on the individual level after 2003. The recent confluence of the cohort and period effects gives an idea of the extent of the change in religious values, attitudes and behaviour that Polish society has experienced since the fall of the communist regime.

More specifically, the social modernization and pluralism that have arisen after the fall of communism in Poland have created a process of social differentiation in which the Church has lost its social position as the main representative of society before political power (Mariaski, 2003). At the same time, in the post-communist period liberal and secularizing currents have arisen or been revived that demand greater limits on the real and symbolic influence of the Catholic hierarchy. These currents are in conflict with the Churchs attempts to maintain its political influence, an influence that causes discontent in many sectors of public opinion (Burdziej, 2005; Mach, 2000). In addition, the involve-ment of the Church in public debate generates a new perception of this institution among some sectors of Polish society. Church is increasingly being perceived as just one of the many actors participating in the development of a vibrant new civil society in Poland.

Therefore, for younger generations of Poles the Catholic Church and its doctrinal moral message have become just one of many lifestyle options to choose from (Szlendak, 2004). In summary, the gradual transformation of religious patterns due to cohort replace-ment and individual change reveals that the fall of the communism regime has also entailed, perhaps ironically, the intensification of secularization in Poland.

Our findings confirm Martins secularization theory (1978), which claims that varia-tion in patterns of religious change not only results from the divergent pace of urbaniza-tion, industrialization and expansion of scientific world view across Europe but also is related to the role of the institutional religion in political conflict. In addition, the com-parison between Spain and Poland confirmed that the process of secularization in tradi-tionally Catholic countries presents uneven patterns depending on whether the society suffers internal political conflict or faces an external threat. To conclude, our study showed that the secularization process is a non-linear phenomenon that is often inter-rupted by parallel processes and events. Therefore, any analysis of historical changes in religiousness should take into consideration the historical, political and sociocultural particularities of each country.

Funding

Mikolaj Stanek would like acknowledge the support of research grant (25.102.462-M.481) awarded by the Spanish Centre for Sociological Research in 2011.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their helping comments and sugges-tions on the original manuscript.



Notes

1. In 1989 quasi-democratic elections were held in Poland which allowed representatives of the democratic opposition to join parliament. However, it was not until 1990 that the first fully democratic presidential and local elections were held.

2. Studies carried out within the PGSS have always contained modules from the International Survey Programme. Thus within both countries a great deal of equivalence between surveys is guaranteed and the so-called house effects are reduced to a minimum.

3. This expression is deduced by simple arithmetic from the previous one:

(PCT/1 PCT) (PC1/1 PC1) = exp(b0 + b1YRT + b2CT) exp(b0 + b1YR1 + b2C1).ln (PCT/1 PCT) ln (PC1/1 PC1) = (b0 + b1YRT + b2CT) (b0 + b1YR1 + b2C1).ln [(PCT/1 PCT) / (PC1/1 PC1)] = b1YRT + b2CT + b1YR1 + b2C1.ln [(PCT/1 PCT) / (PC1/1 PC1)] = b1(YRT YR1) + b2(CT C1).

4. Effects of any of three mentioned variables can be logically expressed and explained in terms of the other two: Cohort = Period Age.

5. In these models one year birth cohort has been recorded as a categorical variable. Now the cohort variable distinguishes several categories indicating the decade of birth instead of year of birth.

6. Due to the relatively small number of cases that could affect the coefficient reliability we decided to withdraw cohorts born before 1911 in Spain and 1921 in Poland from this part of analysis.

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Author biographies

Miguel Requena is Full Professor of Sociology in the Department of Social Structure (Universidad Nacional de Educacin a Distancia, Madrid, Spain) and member of the Population and Society Research Group (GEPS). He has been Senior Associate Member at St Antonys College (Oxford University) and Visiting Professor at Princeton University. His research interests are demography and sociology of family, social stratification, religion and social change.

Mikolaj Stanek is a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of Economy, Geography and Demography of the Spanish Council for Scientific Research (Madrid, Spain) and a member of the Population and Society Research Group (GEPS). His current research interests include the study of religious changes in post-authoritarian countries, migrants labour market integration and international mobility patterns of post-communist societies.



Rsum

Lobjectif de cet article est de dterminer dans quelle mesure le processus de renouvellement gn-rationnel a influ sur lvolution de la religiosit en Espagne et en Pologne dans la priode qui a suivi leur transition dmocratique. Pour lEspagne, les donnes sont tires de plusieurs enqutes ralises par le CIS (Centre espagnol de recherches sociologiques) entre 1980 et 1996. Pour la Pologne, les donnes proviennent du Polish General Social Survey et de lISSP (International Social Survey Programme) pour la priode 1992-2008. Les rsultats montrent deux modles radi-calement diffrents en termes dvolution religieuse. Le recul de la pratique religieuse en Espagne observ tout au long des 16 premires annes qui ont suivi la transition politique est principalement attribuable au changement de cohorte qui concerne chaque nouvelle gnration ne aprs 1950. Dans le cas de la Pologne, le changement qui a suivi la transition est moins marqu et principale-ment d un dclin de la pratique religieuse au niveau individuel. Ltude permet galement de constater que les cohortes de Polonais ns pendant ou aprs la chute du rgime communiste sont nettement moins religieuses que les cohortes plus anciennes.

Mots-cls: cohortes, Espagne, Pologne, religiosit, socits post-autoritaires

Resumen

El objetivo de este artculo es determinar en qu medida el reemplazo generacional ha influido en la evolucin de la religiosidad en Espaa y Polonia en el periodo posterior a la transicin a la democracia. Los datos para Espaa han sido extrados de varias encuestas llevadas a cabo por el Centro de Investigaciones Sociolgicas (CIS) entre 1980 y 1996. Los datos para Polonia provienen de la Encuesta Social General Polaca e ISSP que cubren el periodo 1992-2008. Los resultados muestran dos pautas radicalmente distintas de cambio religioso. La cada en la prctica religiosa observada en Espaa en los primeros 16 aos despus de la transicin poltica se debi principal-mente al cambio entre cohortes que afecta a cada nueva generacin nacida despus de 1950. En el caso de Polonia, el cambio en el periodo post-transicin es menos marcado y debido principal-mente a la cada de la prctica religiosa a nivel individual. El estudio tambin muestra que las cohortes de polacos nacidos durante y despus de la cada del comunismo son significativamente menos religiosas que las cohortes ms mayores.

Palabras clave: cohortes, Espaa, Polonia, religiosidad, sociedades post-autoritarias


Documents

Requena & Stanek (2013) - Secularization in Poland and Spain after the democratic transition: A cohort analysis