Report No. P-2147-PAK(s) Public Disclosure Authorized Pakistan: Hazara …documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/750351468144000615/... · 2016-07-10 · Report No. P-2147-PAK(s) Pakistan:

Report No. P-2147-PAK(s)

Pakistan: Hazara Forestry Pre-lnvestmentProject Technical Annexes FILE COPYOctober 1977

South Asia Projects DepartmentAgriculture Division B

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may nototherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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PAKISTAN

HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT

Currency Equivalent

US$ = PRs 9.8PRs 1 US$ 0.10PRs I million (m) US$302,000

Weights and Measures

I acre (ac) 0.405 hectare (ha)I kana] 0.125 acreI mile (mi) 1.609 kilometers (km)1 foot (ft) 0.3048 metersI inch (in) 2.540 centimeters1 cubic foot (ft ) 0.0283 cubicmeter (m3)1 pound (Ib) =0.454 kilograms (kg)3 liter (]) 0.264 US gallonsI maund 82.3 lbs = 37.4 kg

Abbreviations

ACF - Assistant Conservator of Forests

DBH - Tree diameter at breast heilght (4 ft. 3 in.)DFO - Divisional Forest Officer

FD - Forest Department of NWFP

GOAK - Government of Azad KashmirGONWFP - Government of North West Frontier ProvinceGOP - Government of Pakistan

MAI - Mean annual volume increment of growing trees

NWFP - North West Frontier Province

PFI - Pakistan Forest Institute

Glossary

Pulp - Wood pulp produced by mechanical or chemical means.Pulpwood - Wood used in pulp manufacture; usually small dimension

roundwood and wood waste from other forms of woodprocessing.

Roundwood - Unprocessed logs in round form.

Fiscal Year - GOP and GONWFP

July 1 to June 30

FMR 01FfCIAL USE ONLY

PAKISTAN: Supplement to Hazara ForestryPre-Investment Project

Technical Annexes containing Working Papers forproject imp] ementation

October, 1977

South Asia Projects DepartmentAgricul ture Division B

The data and other materia7 contained in the technical arnexeshave been compiled to give direction to project activities and provide abasis for developing detailed work programs for the various sub-components.Except as specifically provided for in the legal documents for the project,the details of project actions which are described in the annexes arenot definitive and it is e.xoected that changes in design and scope willoccur as the project deveJopes.

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World RIank authorizsation.

PAKISTAN


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

Introduction 3

Hazara Forestry Development Plan 2

Project Area 2

Project Activities 3

Project Management

Costs

Financing 6

Benefits 6

Tables

1. Phasing of Project ActivitiesR. etails of PhKIicalCRejultents and Costs

J ummary o0 Osee Css Dy eost atgo

Annexes

l. Site Assessment and Inventory2. Pilot Plantations, Research Trials and Pulping Tests3. Training and Fellowships4. Guzara Forest Owners Task Force5. Forest Industries Feasibility Study6. Organization and Management7. Preliminary Program Evaluation

Map IBRD 12496 R

PAKISTAN


Introduction

1. The Governments of Pakistan (GOP) and North West Frontier Province(GONWFP) have requested a credit for technical assistance through a HazaraForestry Pre-Investment Project in the Hazara region of the North West

Frontier Province. This project would be the first phase of a program ofdevelopment to bring to the region industrial forest plantations, intensiveexploitation operations, and pulp and paper mill. The annexes to this report containdetailed descriptions of the area, background and proposed project activities.These are briefly summarized below.

2. Forestry and forest industry project proposals for the Hazara districthave been under consideration for some tine, including the introduction oflarge scale afforestation and the construction of a pulp mill at Mansehra,based on the lower elevation Chir pine (Pinus roxburghii) zone. Thesedevelopments would involve exploitation of the existing Chir pine forests,establishment of short-rotation pulpwood plantations in Government Reservedand private "Guzara" forests, and management of the whole area on an intensivesustained-yield basis to meet the needs of the proposed industry as well asthe local population.

3. To initiqe the pulp mill project, GOP has had a preliminary feasibilitystudy undertaken. 1. In addition, GONWFP is presently conducting preliminarystudies aimed at :

( i) evaluating the Chir pine forests which fall withina radius of some 40 miles of the proposed Nansehrapulp mill site;

( ii) investigating the potential for utilizing theprivately owned Guzara forests lands and forestwastelands in the region;

(iii) deve]oping techniques for the establishment ofshort-rotation plantation forests in the area toreplace the long-rotation system presently beingfollowed; and,

( iv) developing an institutional framework which wouldenable both publicly and privately owned forestslands to be managed intensively to provide forregular local needs and the fibre requirements ofthe proposed industrial development.

lj Feasibility Study for Long Fiber Pulp Project to utilize forestresources of NWFP. Zafar and Associates and Stadler Hurter, 1973.

-2-

Proposed Development Plan

4. The technical development project would support and extend thiswork in the Chir pine sone of Hazara and expedite implementation of adevelopment plan. As presently conceived, the plan would comprise threephases as follows :

Phase One This phase would begin with the technical development1977'U -2 project and extend over a five-year period commencing

in 1977. The project area would be thoroughlyevaluated for inventory and plantation developmentareas, plantation management techniques would beestablished, institutional frameworks developed, andproject preparation for subsequent large-scaleplanting and for industrial development would becompleted.

2Phase Two This phase would begin in 1980 with the cmmencement1980 -- 85 of large-scale planting of both Chir pine and hardwood

species and the construction and start-up of the firststage of the pulp mill and associated logging industry.At present, it appears that a 30,000 to 4o,ooo ton perannum long-fibred kraft pulp mill. using Chir pine wouldbe the most logical development but provision has beenmade in the Phase One of the program for detailedfeasibility studies to confirm or modify this preliminaryconclusion.

Phase Three This phase would include a second-stage forestry7 90 project which would complete the establishment of the

estimated 85,000 acres required to support the proposedpulp and paper mill. The mill would be expanded duringthis phase by the addition of a 40,000 ton per annumnewsprint mil-1 which would use hardwood species pulpedby a semi-chemical process, with a proportion of long-fibred pulp added to the furnish. Again, this tentativemill configuration could be modified in subsequentdetailed studies to be carried out during earlier phasesof the program.

ProJect Area

5. The project area is within an approximate radius of 30 miles ofMansehra; it contains some 60,000 acres of existing Chir pine forestsof which some 50% is government reserved forests and 50% private Guzaraforests, and some 90,000 acres of treeless Guzara land which is consideredsuitable for reforestation. The area is described in detail in Annex 1and shown in Map 1.

2/ It will be noted that a two-year "overlap" has been provided extendingthe Technical Development project into the implementation of Phase Two.This is a contingent safeguard against any unforeseen problems whichmay deveJop and is intended to add flexibility to the program.

-3-

Project Activities

6. The project would be for five years and would include theactivities described below;. the phasing of activities is presented inTable 1.

( i) a site assesament surwey to select suitable areas forlarge-scale afforestation and exploitation within thecatchient area proposed for the mill, having regard tothe physical limitations of the forest lands and therequirements for wood supplies and grazing to neetlocal demand; compilation of management ago atscale 1:25,000, (see Annex 1);

( ii) complementing the site assessment, there would be acomplete updating of the inventory of the existingforest resource to provide reliable data of currenttimber stocking for the feasibility study, (see Annex 1);

(iii) Pilot plantations with back-up research trials extendingto some 5,000 acres to achieve early impact of improvedtechnology and establish a sound bases for large-scaleafforestation; institute longer-term tree breedingimprovement and possible improved species, (see Annex 2);

( iv) training and fellowships to accelerate the implementationof improved technologLes including a specialist inp]antations deve]opment for the first three years; aninventory specialist in Year 1; overseas study toursfor project staff in Years 1, 2 and 3, (see Annex 3);

( v) a Ouzara Forest Owners Task Force to assess the positionof Guzara forest owners and other forest users andprepare suitable institutional and financial arrangementsto ensure the integration, participation and cooperationof the local people with future forest and forestindustrial development, (see Annex 4);

( vi) pulping tests to coordinate the suitability of speciesproposed for planting with their industrial qua]ities,(see Annex 2);

(vii) a feasibility study to provide a firm base for determiningthe location, size, configuration and timing of the forestindustries that could be established, (see Annex 5);

(viii) project preparation for the proposed phase two forest andforest industries projects, (see Annex 6);

-4-

Project Management

7. The project headquarters would be established at Mansehra. Theproject will be under the management of the Chief Conservator of Forestsassisted by a fulltime assistant project director of the rank of Senior DFO/Conservator. The Project Director would be responsible for all forestryactivities and, through the Secretary for Forests, to the Additional ChiefSecretary, Planning and Development, for coordination of the work of thesocio-economic study, pulping tests and feasibility study. The projectdirector would also be assisted by a fulltime plantations specialist forthe first three years, an administrative officer, a site assessment section,an inventory section, and supporting technical and administrative staff.A discussion of project organization and management and full details ofproject staff is contained in Annex 6.

8. Inputs from a number of other agencies and advisers would berequired including the Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation, theFederal Inspector General of Forests, the Pakistan Forest Institute, theDepartment of Industry, NWFP, and various consultants who will be retainedas part of the project. These activities will need coordinating.

9. A Project Development Committee would be formed, composed of trheAdditional Chief Secretary, P & D, NWFP as Chairman, the Inspector Generalof Forests, GOP, the Secretary for Forests, the Chief Conservator ofForests, the Secretary for Industry and Technical Director, PakistanIndustrial Development Corporation. The Chief Conservator of Forests, asproject director, would be secretary. The committee would receive periodicreports of project progress and give directions to the project directorfor coordinating the various activities and inputs of the agencies discussedin para. 8.

Costs

10. Project costs are derived in the detailed physical requirementsand cost tables in Table 2 and are summarized.below. Total costs arePRs. 25.14 million (US$2.57 million) including physical and price contingencies.

Summar of PrJoect Cosrts(Amoumts in NiMla*)

Site Asseament .57 .06Inventory 1.22 .12Project HQ.., Pi] ot Plantations

and Research Trials 8.14 .83Training ad Fellowships 1.87 .19OGsara Forest Owners Task Force .66 .07Pulping Tests .131 .03Feasibility Study 5.73 .59Follow-Up Project Preparation 1.00 .10

Total Baseline Costs 19.50 1.99

Physical Contingencies .59 .06

Sub Total 20.09 2.05

Price Contingencies 5.05 .52

Total Project Costs 25.14 2.57

Foreign Exchange (55%) 13.33 1.36

1/ based on July, 1977 prices.

2/ Based on 10% for equipment and feasibility study.

3/ See Table 3, page 3 for detailed calculations.

-6-

Financing

11. Financing of the project would be by 34% OM and 66% IDA credit.The project would maintain separate accounts Which would be audited in aasnner satisfactory to the Association.

Benefits of the Proposed Program

12. The benefits of the proposed credit per so cannot be quantififdbecause the activities included are essentially technical developmentwhich would lead to the implementation of a productive progrm. lowever,a preliminary analysis of the integrated program discussed in para. 4 hasbeen developed in Annex 7 to demonstrate the overall profitability of thbproposed development. In financial terms, this indicates an internal rateof return of 11%, which is typical for proJoets of this type. The econonicrate of return would be about 14%. This does not include the benefits ofestablishing sound reforestation techniques which will have application inother areas, securing extensive watershed areas of the njor river systemsto stable land use, and, the incremental employment generation in plantations,logging, pulp paper mill and ancillary industries.

EAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESMENT PROJECT

P in.g of Project Activitiel

Year a Y 2 ear Year 4 er

- Site Assessment- ---- -

- Inventory- Other Base Data for Feasibility

Study 2Training and Fellowships - _ _ _- Foreign Special ists

- plantations E E E- inventory

otherMPd

- Scholarships- project manager- nursery-, ran3e,, officer

senior forest manager

Pilot Plantation Establishment/ _ L_A_

- PI an tinr, _ _ _ - _ _ , r -- Pulping studie-s- Research trials _ . - - _ _ - - _ _ _ _ -_ - -_ _- Genetic Improvement ._ _ -_ _ -- -_

Industrial Feasibility Stud-Y

- Resource Study .* L -

- Market & Industnry Study- Project Formalation & Review- Final Feasibility Studr7_

Ourzara Forest Owners Task Force

- Field Investi,ations ._ -_ _ L _ _ _ -- Recommendation & Imp]ementation

Proj,ect Preparation

- Forestry,, Project- Industrial Project

/ See Annex I' See Annex 3

/ See Annex 2V/ See Arnex 57/ See Annex 41/ See Annex 6

P A K I S T A N


DetaiUs of Physical Requirements and Costs

Units Requirements (Years) Unit Costs Costs (Years) (PRs'OOO)1 2 3 4 5 PRs. 1 2 3 4 5 Tota]

SITE ASS_TSMTCapital Co.ta.Jeep SWB, and Trailer no. 1 95,000/unit 95Laboratory Suipuent V/Direct Loading Ba]ance nOven n 1Atomic Absorption Spectrometer n 1 200Sundry Tools 2Ooerating Costs: IaStaff:ACF Field Survey Gd.17 1 1 17,000/year 27 17

Forest Ouard Ats" 1 2 2 4,000 " 8 8Driver " 3 I 1 4,800 " 5 5Peon & Messenger n 1 2 2 3,500 " 7 7Laborers 2 2 3,500 " 7 7

PFIs Soils Chemist man years ¼ ¼ 18,000 n 5 5lab. Technicn I t 16,000 i 8 8Draughtaman ½ ½ 16,000 n 8 8

Jeep Running Costs at 15,000miles/year 000 miles 15 15 2/mile 30 30

Soil Bags, Tools Replacement 18 l1

and Mapping Ibterials 6/Travelling Allo;7ances - 18 18

Sub Totals 434 131 565FOREST INVENTORYJeep Pick-up 95,000/unit 95Staff: ACF Inventory O.17 no. 1 17,000/year 175 Field Crews oft

1 Rguge Forest Officer Gd.16 n 5 15,000 " 754 Foresters ad.5 n 20 6,600 " 1321 Driver Gd.3 n 5 4,800 " 24

Photo Interpreters: w2 for ½ yewr Gd.16 " 2 35,000 " 15

Photo Mapping Machine /Specialist Od.16 " 1 15,000 a 15

Dmughtsmen ad.:6 4 2 15,000 " 30Clerical staff ad.5 "4 4,700 " 19Inventory Specialist 1 500 000 M 500Joep Runing Costs 000 miles 60 22 mile 120Supo~a1s, Stores, mplpin4 60

Travelling Allowances / 120Sub-Totals a,222

2/ Needed to complete soils analysis equipment in soils laboratory at PFI.2/ Will receive initial short-course on sampling design and technique and classification system at PFI and soils survey of Pakistan.];/ Serwice provided at PFI.W Seconded from Aerial Forest Inventory.i/ Specialist services would be required for 3-months only on basis of validation of existing data. Provision is included for 12 months in event

further services are required. zsee Annex ].1 Based on PRs. 6,000/year for staff grades 16 to 19; PRs. 3,600/year for staff grades 5 to 15; PRs. 2,400/year for staff grades 1 to 4.

P A K I S T A N

HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECTDetails of Physical Requirements and Costs

Units Requirements (Years) Unit Costs Costs (Years) (PRs'OO0)1 _ 2 3 4 5 (PRs* 1 2 3 4~ 5 Total

PRDJECT HEADQUARTERS, PIIOT PLANTATIOINSAND RESEARCH TRIALS

Canital Costs 2Project HQ Cffice 1,600 ft2./ no. I 90/ft 144 144Project HQ Store 400 ftY/ no. 1 80/ft 2 32 32Senior Staff Houses 1,500 ft'YJ,/ no. 3 100/ft2 450 450Range Officers Hostel 2,ooo ft 23/ no. 1 90/ft 2 180 180Range Officers liouse/Office 1,000 ft2L/ no. 1 90/ft 90 90Forester/Forest Guards Hlostels 900 ft2Z/ no. 2 1 90/ft 2 162 81 2435-ton Truck no. 1 165,000/unit 165 165Jeeps, SIR 'r. Trailers no. 2 95,000/unit 190 190Jeep Pick-up no. 1 95,000/unit 95 95Refrigerators for Seed Storage no. 3 6,00 0/unit 18 18Seed Testing Equipment set 1 4.000/set 4 4Office Furniture, Equipment, HQ 2/ set 1 40,000/set 40 40Cffice Furniture, Range Officers set 2 1 2,000/set 4 2 6Telephone Installati nI HQ 2 2Nursery Development: 2

Clearing and levelling, preparation ofbeds, paths, etc. at 125 md/acre md 250 250 12/md 3 3 6Fencing acs 2 2 1,500/ac 3 3 6Irrigation Equipment, including pump/engine, tubing, spripklers set I 73,000/unit 73 73Store shed 600 ft l 60/ft 36 36Hand Tools set 1 1 3 3 6Hand Sprayers no. 2 2 500/unit 1 1 2Wleather Station] no. 1 10,000/unit 10 10Rain Gauges/themuometers no. 6 100/unit 1 1

Sub-total 1,616 173 10 1,799

/ To be constructed by Forest Dept. on direct contract basis using standard designs. Drawings being prepared by FD. Land beingpurchased bv GONWFP.Assis.ant Project Manager, Forestry Specialist and Administrative Officer.

i/ See Schedule 1./ Initially 2 acres in Year 1 increasing to 4i acres in Year 3. Land being purchased by GOMI*FT (4 acres) in contiguous hlock.,/ Central station at nursery or project HQ site with rain gauges in sub-centers fbr providing basic data for assessing silvic.

practices and developing fire-plan.

P A K I S T A N


Details of Physical Requirements and CostsUnit Requirements (Years) Unit Costs Costs (Years)(PRs.OOO)

1 2 3 4 5 (PRs) 1 2 3 4 ' Tota IOperating Costs a]/Nurserr: Seedling Production 000's 140 290 500 950 1,900Soil and Sand at I lb./seedlingand 50:50 mixture tons 60 130 230 430 860labor for collecting/loading/unloadingat 3 md/ton md. 180 390 690 1,290 2,580 12/md. 2 5 8 16 31Transport 5-ton loads at 12 miles/load miles 150 300 600 1,100 2,220 3/mile I 1 2 3 7Polythene Tubes 60/1,000 8 17 30 57 124Seed-local collection lbs. 25 50 100 200 400 20/lb. 1 2 2 4 8Seed-imported (sma3l lots)

5 5 2 2 2Fertilizers at 5 lbs./1,000 seedlings lbs. 700 1,450 2,500 4,750 9,500 4.75/lb. 3 7 12 23 45Insecticides and Special Compounds 1 2 3 4 5Irrigation Operation at 3 4 6 hours/day for 6200 days/year 600 600 1,200 1,200 1,200 15/hour 9 9 38 ]8 ]8Tools Maintenance and Stores

2 3 4 5 6Labor for operations at 8 md/1,000 seedlings md. 1,120 2,320 4,000 7,600 15,200 12/md. 13 28 48 91 182Sub-Totals 45 79 129 223 418 (°Y4Plantations acs. 150 350 650 1.250 2.450Land preparation and pit digging 12md/ac.

Hand carrying transp]ants 2 n "Planting 4 t n

18 " n ad. 2,700 6,300 21,700 22,500 44,100 12/md. 32 75 140 270 529Plant Transport at 6,000 p1 ants/`hoadover average 40 mile return distance miles 680 1,530 2,930 5,580 11,100 3/mile 2 5 9 37 33Fencing acs. 240/acre 36 85 156 300 588Area boundary Survey at I md./acre md. 150 350 650 1,250 2,450 12/md. 2 4 8 15 29Beating Up in 2nd Year; 10% of area at11 5% of planting and transport costs

- 2 4 7 242nd Year Tending at 3 md./acre - 450 1,050 1,950 3,750 12/md. - 5 23 23 45Additional cost for research planting at5 md./acre md. - 150 200 200 150 - 2 2 2 2Sub-Totals

72 178 332 634 1,240 2,456Access Tracks/Firebreaks: WInitial formation at average density of0.6 mi3es/]OO acres miles 1 2 4 8 15

12/ Based on 680 plants/acre plus 10% culling and 10% beating up./ Includes engine, pump, spray equipment operating and repair costs.

3 m. width Jeep Track/Fire line.

PAKISTA N


Detail a of Physical Requirements and Costs

Unit Requirements (Years) Unit Costs Costs (Years) (PRs.000)1 2 3 4 5 4 T)t 1 2 3 1 T al

Formation by hand labor at 3,200 md/miJe ad. 1,200 2,400 4,800 9,600 18,000 12/md. 14 29 58 315 236Materials for bridges/calverts at PRs.4,000/mie 4,000/mile 4 8 16 32 60Annual maintenance:

300 md/mile n- _ 300 300 700 1,500 12/md. 1 4 8 18

materials 400/mile 1 1 3 5Sub-Total s 29 >3

Protection of PlaxitationsFence snaintenance, regulation of grass cutting,fire control and reporting pests and diseasesat I md./acre ad. 150 500 1,150 2,400 4,850 12/ad. 2 6 34 29 58Additiordcosts for small-scale research plotsat 2nd/acre 60 80 80 100 I" I 1 1 3Insecticides 2 3 4 S 6

Sub-Total 4 10 19 35 65 333

Overheads and AdministrationStaff Salaries:

Assistant Project Manager Grade 18/19 no. 16/ 1 1 1 1 1 30,000/year 30 30 30 30 30

Specialist (Plantations & Genetics) n I/ 1 1 1Range Officers Gradel7 n 1/ 3 3 3 3 3 15,500J/ 47 47 47 47 47Foresters "5 n 6 6 6 6 6 6,600 n 40 40 40 40 40Forest uards n I 6 6 6 8 8 4,ooo n 24 24 24 32 32Administrative Officer n 17 n I 1 1 1 1 15,000 n 15 15 15 15 15Accountant "33 1 1 1 1 1 1 7,700 U 8 8 8 8 8

Senior Clerk a 8 f 1 1 I 1 1 6,000" 6 6 6 6 6Clerical Staff " 5 n 2 2 2 2 2 4,700 n 9 9 9 9 9Drivers n 3 i 4 4 4 4 4 4,800" 19 19 19 19 39

n Assistant nI 1 1 1 1 1 3,800 4 4 4 4 4NurseryChowkidar/Storekeeper I1 n 1 1 1 1 1 3,800 4 4 4 4 4Feons and Cjewiers 1it 6 6 6 6 6 3,500 2 21 2) 21 23 21Visiting PPI Specialists thF 6 6 6 6 6 19/

3 Jeeps at 12,000 miles/year u es 36 36 36 36 36 27mile 72 72 72 72 725 Ton Truck, genera) running, 5,000 miles/year ft 5 5 5 5 5 3/ U1 25 15 15 15 25Trvel Costs for visiting specia3ists 3,000/oa 4, 6 6 6 6 6Office Ecpenses 20 m 15 15 15 15 15Maintenance of Buildings 18 38 18 18

Travel Allowances for Project Staff -_ -Jo 100 loo ItT

Sub-Totals 435 453 453 461 461 2,263T/ Includes Basic salary, compensatory, dearess, medical, recreation, and applicable house allowances.16/ Posts of project director allows promotion in post from senior DPO to Conservator; includes responsibility allowance of Hls. 3,600/y .r.1 ?ICosts included under training.

To be selected and appointed on basis of qualification and aptitude for plantations development. 'UTechnical back-up services provided by PPI whose salaries are paid from normal budget. LO/ See Schedule 1.

P A 1 I S T A N

HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECTDetails of Physical Requirements and Costs

Unit Requirements (Years) Unit Costs Costs (Years) (PRs.000)1 2 4 (PRs) 1 2 3 4 _ iTotal-

TRAINING AND FELXIMWHIPS Li/Plantations~ Specialist n°.,-22 ' 1 1 500,000/year 500 500 500Inventor-y Special ist ofIOther Specialists mtRs I I 1 70,000/m.m 70 70 70Scholarships: n i3p

Project Manager 2 2 36,000/trip 36 36Senior Management Officer o w 1 20,000 n 20Nursery Superintendent i 26/ 2 2 36,000/ " 36 36

Sub-Totals 572 556 606 70 70 1,87hGUZARA FOREST OWERS TASK FORCEProfessional staff of Forest Officer, Economist,Sociologist and Co-operative Specialist 30 30 1,750!m.m 53 53Travelling, incidental field and officeexpenses, including clerical staff time 42 42Study Thurs days 60 60 400/day 24 24Air Fares 2]/ 1 1 15,000/fare 15 15External consul tanay -Hire Charges mons 3 3 145,000/m.m 135 135Subsistence days 90 90 400/day 36 36Air Fares 2 1 15,000/fare 30 15

Sub-Totals 335 320 655PULPING TESTSFelling, Extraction, Transport and Shippingof sample 30Fees 200Attendance at Tests by Pakistan Specialist:Subsistence for 3 months and Air Fares 70local Costs of Report Writing - 3 months _

Sub-Totals 305 305PROJECT PREPARATION 200 800 1,000FEASIBILITY STUDY L§/ 2.300 4.000 6.300LI/ Internationally recruited. See Job description and qualifications specifications in Annex 3.2/ Expected to be required for initial 3-months, provision included for 1-year in event this is required. Costs shown under Inventory.2/Disciplines ±1 exible but would likely include entomologist/pathologist/fire plan/follow-up of geneticist.

/ 2 man-months in Years I and 3, based on PRs.15,000 air fares and travel expenses of PRs.350/day to be arranged in consultation withPlantations Specialist.

25/ 1 man-month in Year 2 based on PRs. 10,000 air fares and travel expenses of PRs.350/day to be arranged in consultation withPlantat-ons Speciarlst. wPl 2 man-months in Years I and 2 based on PRs.15,000 air fares and travel eipenses of PRss350/day to be arranged in consltation withPlantations Specialist.

27 Provision for unidentified additional project reparation activities; e.g. o1oing training, commuications and water studies, etc./ See detailed costs in Annex 5, which include l physical contingencies. (IRs. g70,000).

Table 2Schedule 1

PAKISTAN

HAZAAL FORESTRY PRB-INVESTMENT PROJECT

Office Furniture and Equipment - Project BQs.

PRs.

10 Desks/Tables 10, OOO15 Chairs 1,500

6 Cupboards 5,0006 Cabinets 5,000

Typewriter, 18" 5,400of , 12" 2,100

Safe 1,000Calculators 1,000Files, small equipment, sundry 4,000Mapping Table 1,000Map Cabinet 2,000Carpets and Curtains 2,000

Total 4o_Doo

Annual Office Expenses - Project HQs.

Telephone 2,000Lighting and Heating 6,000Stationery 4,000Sundry 3,000

Total 15,000

HIZARA FORESiRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT

Sunmmary of ProJect Costs b TyDe of Ekpenditure(US$'000)

Baseline Physical Price Total Less Duties and Net F.E. CostsCosts Contingencies Sub-Totas Contingencies Project Taxes Project % of Amount

Costs Costs Net Costs

A. Capital Costs

a-b Buildings, Land levelling, water supply 129 1 130 14 144 144 ]7 24c-e Vehicles and equipment 96 3 99 7 106 12 94 89 84

B. Oreratin_ Costs

a-b Salaries and Wages 521 - 521 170 691 - 691 - -c-e Office supplies, stores and vehicle

operating 239 2 239 70 309 22 287 50 144

C. Other Items

a. Consulting services 725 59 784 186 970 970 92 892b. Expatriate salaries ]53 - 15 29 182 182 lOO 182c. Training courses 25 - 4 29 29 100 29d. Follow-up project preparation 102 2 102 35 137 137

Totals 1,990 63 2,033 515 2,568 34 2,534 53 1,335

PAUSTAN


Project Base]ine Costs by Category and Components(U$ '000)

Project HQPilot Training Ouzara Forest Pulping Feasibility FolloPw-Up

I Site Forest Plantations and Owners' Task Tests Study Project Base]ine Physical ContingenciesAssessment Invenrary and Research Fe] 2owships Force Preparation Totals % Amount

Trials

A. Capita] Coats

a. Buildings 120 120b. Land leve]ling andwater suppl ies 9 9 10 Ic. Vehicles 10 10 46 66d. Office equipment, too]s

and technical equipment 7 7e. Other equipment 21 2 23 1D 2B0 Operating Costs

a. Salaries and allowances 16 45 168 15 244 - -b. Wages 1 275 1 277 - -c. Office supplies andmaintenance 15 15d. Other suppl ies 4 6 130 140 - -e. Vehic]e operating andtransport 6 13 59 4 2 84 - -

C. Other Items

a. Consultancies 51 21 40 28 585 725 10 59b. Expatriate salaries 253 53 - -c. Training courses 27 25d. Fol l ow-up project Xpreparation 102 - 102

58 125 831 191 67 31 585 102 1,990 63

2/ Source: See detailed costs sheet in Table 2.

]/ 10% for feasibility study.

PAKISTA.N


Price Contingency Calculations(US$ 000)

Anticipated Percentage Out)ay Annual Costs (including Physical Contingencies)by yebyer

1 2 3 e' 5 1 2 3 4 a Totals

A. Capital Costs

a. Buildings 83 17 100 20 120

b. Land levelling and water supplies 92 8 9 1 10

Sub-Totals 2/ 109 20 ] 130

Price contingency factor- .09 .19 .29Price contingency amount 10 4 14

c. Vehicles 100 6 66

d. Office equipment, tools andtechnical equipment 100 8 8

e. Other equipment 97 3 24 1 25

Sub-Totals 2/ 9

Price contingency factor - .075 .24

Price contingency amount 7 7

B. Operating Costs

a. Salaries and Allowances 39 20 13 14 14 95 49 32 34 34 244

b. Wages 3 7 314 26 50 8 19 39 72 139; 277

Sub-Totals 2/ 103 68 71 I l0 173 -Z

Price contingency factor- .09 .19 .29 .39 .50

Price contingency amount 9 13 41 87 170c. Office supplies and maintenance 10 22 22 23 23 2 3 3 15

d. Other supplies 10 10 12 24 44 14 14 15 34 63 140

e. Vehicle operating and transportcosts 35 15 16 17 17 30 14 15 717 84

Sub-Totals 2/ 46 31 3 15 847 Price contingency factor- .075 .)55 .24 .32 .42Price contingency amount 4 5 8 IL 36 70

C. Other items

a. Consultancies 10 36 52 1 1 78 282 408 8 8 784

b. Expatriate Salaries 33 33 34 51 51 51 153

c. Training courses 46 39 15 11 10 4 25d. Follow-up proJect preparation 20 50 50 _1 51 __- __-

Sub-Totals 140 343 514 59 8 1,64

Price contingency actorun .09 .19 .29 .39 .50

Price contingency amount .213 65 149 23 4 254

Total Price Contingencies 43 87 177 81 127 515

L/ Based on July, 1977 costs with anticipated start of project in January, 1978.2/ Civil works, salaries, consultancies: 9% (77-79) and 8% (80-82),

vehicles, equipment, materials :7.5%( " ) and 7% ( ).

ANNEX 1Page 1

PAKISTAN


Site Assessment and Inventory

Introduction

1. The areas provisionally selected for intensive plantations developmentto provide pulpwood to the proposed pulp and paper mill operation are summarizedbelow. These areas are within a 30 mile radius of the proposed mill site and areshown in Map 1. The areas stated are less than work plan estimates and are con-sidered to be conservative. An additional chir pine area in the Haripur divisionwould also be available, although this is considered less fertile; see footnote 4/.

Summary of Estimated Chir Pine Zone AreasFor Intensive Plantations Development

(thousands of acres)

Forest DivisionsHazara

Existing Forests: Siran Tribal Kagan Galis Total

Forest Reserve 1/ 16.5 11.5 - - 28.0Guzara Forests- Chir selection w.c. 11.0 2.5 2.5 16.0- Protection w.c. 2/ 6.0 2.0 3.5 2.5 14.0

Sub-totals 33.5 16.0 6.0 2.5 58.0

Area available for Plantations Development

Undemarcated Guzara 3/without tree cover 90.0

Gross area for selectingfinal Project Area 148.0 4/

w.c. = working circle.

1/ An additional area of Resumed Lands in Giddarpur and Shergarh of approximately6,500 acres and 6,000 acres respectively are available for inclusion in theproject area.

2/ Indicates stocking density is less than 60%; does not preclude production forestry.3/ About 2,000 acres of this area is reported to contain some existing chir pine.4/ Chir pine areas in the Haripur division, about 40 miles distant from Mansehra,

available for inclusion in the project area include:

Forest Reserve 6,000 acresif It (Protection) 10,000

Guzara Selection 8,500 "

" Protection 9,000

and an unquantified area of undemarcated Guzaraforests without tree cover.

ANNEX 1Page 2

2. The final areas to be allocated to pulpwood production will depend uponvariables including:

(a) Size and product mix of the pulp/paper mill.

(b) Proportion of existing Chir pine forests to be allocatedfor sale as saw-timber.

(c) Possibility of managing some of the Chir pine plantationson the basis of producing both saw-timber and pulpwoodon, say, a 35-year rotation with intermediate pulpwoodthinnings.

(d) Proportions of hardwood and softwood in total pulpwoodsupply.

3. On the basis of possible pulp/paper mill alternatives discussed in themain report, the area required for a sustained supply of pulpwood, assuming apure pulpwood rotation management, would be about 50,000 acres of pine and 35,000acres of hardwoods. These areas can be found within the gross area and can beexpanded to meet changes in size of pulpmill and the alternative forest managementobjectives discussed in para 2.

4. In order to make selections of areas with maximum growth potential andfor choice of species to be grown, a detailed site assessment of the total areawill be needed - see para 6.

5. There will be a trade-off between allocating most of the existing Chirpine mature forest to pulpwood to enable an early start-up of the mill or, retain-ing this timber for marketing as saw-timber and delaying mill start-up until thenew plantations are ready for harvesting. In order to assess the implicationsinvolved, a detailed forest inventory will be needed. Preliminary analysis of thepresent data indicates that, assuming pulp mill start-up in 1984, the bulk of theexisting Chir pine forests would need to be set aside for pulpwood to ensure anadequate flow of raw material. However, it is emphasized that no reliableassessment can be made of mill timing and the allocation of the existing pineforests until a complete inventory has been carried out. This is discussed inpara 7.

Site Survey and Classification

6. (a) Background. Having regard to the physical limitations of the forestsand the requirements for wood supplies and grazing to meet localdemands,l/ it is necessary to identify, map and classify landsavailable and suitable for pulpwood plantations. Site classificationinvolves compilation and interpretation of data from existing recordsand from new surveys; the data refer to topography, climate, soil andvegetation. The object is to tabulate and map the project area into

1/ Provision for local requirements is discussed in Annex .

ANNEX 1Page 3

major classes of environment and accessibility; where possible,environmental classes are related to actual or predicted tree growth(for both indigenous and exotic species). Site classification isundertaken on a more refined scale than that used for example inestablishing the existing Site Quality Classes for Chir pine. Thesite survey should be coordinated with the inventory of existingChir pine forests.

(b) Soil sampling has been carried out by the Soils Survey of Pakistanin part of the area in collaboration with the NWFP Aerial ForestInventory project. The results of this work would be incorporatedand additional sampling taken as needed and on areas not coveredby the Survey.

(c) Detailed Features. The site assessment survey would identify indetail areas suitable for industrial plantations and correlatethese with projected industrial requirements and the requirementsfor local wood consumption and grazing area. Although the grossarea for the development program has been selected, it is stillnecessary to undertake a site classification so that the resultof pilot plantations and research may be extrapolated with confidence.

(d) The site survey should include information from three main sources.Firstly, the project area should be mapped by ownership, land useand accessibility/roadability to determine possible plantation areas.Secondly, all available climatic data should be compiled for thegeneral district and for the specific project area; this includesmonthly means and ranges for rainfall, temperature and humidity fromas many meteorological stations as possible. (Prescriptions foradditional stations and rain gauges are given in the section on thecentral nursery - see Annex 2).

(e) Thirdly, soil samples should be taken at a sampling intensity of1 soil pit per 250 acres in the defined plantation areas requiringa maximum of 600 pits in the entire 150,000 acre area.

(f) At a sampling rate of 10 pits per week, this would require 1-1-1/2 years.A slow initial rate is expected because of the unfamiliarity of localstaff with this type of work and because of the need for detaileddescription of geology and topography/aspect, which have criticalinfluence on chir pine growth, plus estimates of current crop growth,age and yield (to correlate with site classification). The initialsampling, laboratory analysis and data acquisition/interpretation/reporting is expected to take 1-1/2-2 years. The intensity and rateof sampling could be increased in subsequent years to accommodate newareas or to refine the classification of existing areas.

ANNEX 1Page 4

The main features described for each sample include:

(i) Location (latitude, longitude, altitude, local name).

(ii) Topography and aspect.

(iii) Vegetation type including estimate of chir pine growthwhere applicable.

(iv) Land use.

(v) Climatic data with indication of nearness of source.

(vi) Visual description of soil profile including depth andcolor of main horizons, down to underlying strata wherepossible.

(vii) Mechanical analysis by sedimentation to estimate proportionsof sand, silt and clay.

(viii) Chemical analysis to determine pH, organic content, andcontent of N, P, K, Mg and Ca. There is no current evidenceof deficiency of trace elements but these could be analyzedin the laboratory.

(g) Site mapping would be on a scale of 1/25,000, providing soilmaps, integrated climatic diagrams and base management maps.They would be clearly related to the inventory of existingstock (see para 7 below).

(h) Administration. The site assessment program would requirecooperation between project staff (responsible mainly for fieldsampling and description) and PFI staff (responsible for mechanicaland chemical analyses of soil). The field survey team would beled by an ACF with two forest guards, a driver, two peons and twolocal laborers. Laboratory analyses would be conducted by thePFI Soil Chemist (1/4 time) and PFI technician (1/2 time). Alldata would be compiled by the ACF and mapped by a PFIdraughtsman (1/2 time).

(i) Both the ACF and the Soil Chemist should spend time in the fieldand laboratory with staff of the Soil and Geological Surveys ofPakistan to standardize sampling, analysis and description as faras possible. Depending on the experience of the ACF and Soil Chemistit may be desirable to request for 3 - 6 months the services of aforeign researcher, possibly a younger doctoral graduate with 1/practical experience in establishing a soil analysis laboratory. -

1/ E.G. a graduate of Reading or Rothamsted having some experience of tropicalsoils whose services could possibly be supplied through the U.K. OverseasDevelopment Ministry technical assistance programs.

ANNEX 1Page 5

(j) Estimated costs of the initial site survey are PRs. 565,000 and aresummarized in detail in the main report, Table 2.

Inventory

7. (a) An inventory will be needed for the existing Chir pine forests inthe project area to enable decisions to be made with respect to: -

(i) The distribution of the timber volumes between pulpwood andother uses, to be made by GOP and GONWFP.

(ii) On the basis of (i), the timing of pulpmill construction date andstart-up, in which it is probable that external financial agencieswould be involved.

(b) Present inventory data is contained in the different working plansfor the project area forests. This is based on field measurements withinindividual compartments and expresses total over-bark volumes. It does notindicate the distribution of total volume between tree sizes and log size classes;nor is any measurement made of defects or bark percentages, which is essentialinformation needed for making the management decisions discussed in para (a).

(c) The Aerial Forest Inventory project is currently undertaking anupdating of the project area forests based on Working Plan methods. Samplingfor bark %, incidence of defect and log size assortment was introduced into thework schedules in February 1977. The updated data will provide useful additionalinformation.

(d) The existing data will need to be examined in detail to determinewhether it can be used as a basis for compiling data to reliably assess:

(i) The distribution of the standing volume by diameter (DBH) classes.

(ii) The distribution of the standing volume by Log Size classes.

(iii) Adjustment of the volumes at (i) and (ii) for defect %.

(iv) Adjustment of the volumes at (i) and (ii) for bark %.

(v) Distribution of standing volumes between Forest Reserve andGuzara forests.

(d) If it transpires that existing data is insufficient to provide thisinformation, a decision will need to be taken as to whether:

(i) Further field measurements within individual compartments can beeconomically made to bring the total data to the required standard.

(ii) A new inventory, based on forest type maps made from existing aerialphotography, would be more economical. Field data would be gatheredon a sampling intensity to be determined by statistical method to giveresults of sufficient accuracy for the basic management decisions tobe taken as outlined in para (a).

ANNEX 1Page 6

(e) Administration. The inventory work would require cooperation betweenproject staff and FD Inventory Section, who would supply the specialist staff.The work is expected to take one year and would be under the direct responsibilityof an Inventory Specialist (ACF), with five field crews each in the charge of aRange Forest Officer, and support services of two photo-interpreters, twodraughtsmen, a photo-mapping machine specialist and clerical staff. Provisionis included for an international inventory specialist for an initial period ofthree months to assist FD Inventory Section to review the existing data andmake decisions under paras (c) and (d) above. If these results are positive,and an internationally acceptable inventory can be based on existing inventorydata, the Inventory Section could then complete the remaining work. In theevent option (d) (ii) is required, a full 12-month appointment of the inventoryspecialist would be necessary. This latter eventuality is provided for in thecost estimates.

(f) Since the results of the inventory will be required for defining thetiming of the industrial feasibility study, this activity would be completedin the first year of the project.

(g) Estimated costs are PRs 1.2 million and are tabulated in Table 2 ofthe main report.

(h) Terms of Reference for the inventory specialist are contained inAppendix 1.

Other Base Data for Feasibility Study

8. During the first two years of the project, the Project Director wouldbe collating and assembling other relevant data required for the feasibilitystudy scheduled for years 2 and 3 of the project. (See Annex 5 for Terms ofReference and additional data needed). The Project Director would consultwith other interested agencies, (e.g., PIDC, PFI, Department of Industries,NWFP), in preparing this aspect of the work program. Additional staff wouldbe made available for these duties on secondment from NWFP Forest Department.

ANNEX 1Appendix 1Page 1

Terms of Reference for Inventory Specialist Consultant

The present inventory data for the Chir pine forests of the projectarea is contained in the individual 10-year working plans and is based on totalvolume assessment of individual compartments. This data requires to be assessedfor its reliability and suitability for basing management decisions for theallocation of existing forests to pulpwood and the size and timing of theproposed pulpmill.

Stage 1. As a first stage, the consultant, in collaboration with FD InventorySection and Working Plans Officer, would assess the present data for:

(a) Completeness; ensuring all standing timber to be includedin the project area is included.

(b) Reliability for assessing standing volumes to 95% confidence.

(c) Suitability for undertaking volume compilation to provide data on:

( i) distribution of standing volume by DBH classes;

( ii) distribution of standing volume by Log Size classes;

(iii) adjustment of volumes at (i) and (ii) for defect %;

( iv) adjustment of volumes at (i) and (ii) for bark %.

( v) distribution of standing volume between ForestReserves and Guzara forests;

( vi) Forecasts of sustainable timber supplies under a number ofalternative management systems to be defined afterpreliminary study.

(d) In the event data is insufficient for compilation as under (c) above,determine the advisability of taking additional field measurementsso the supplemented existing data can be used to provide informationunder (c) above.

(e) Assuming results are positive under (a), (b), (c) or (d), designingthe additional sampling method and format for data presentationfor FD. Inventory Section to complete the outstanding workdescribed in (c) above.

ANNEX 1Appendix 1rage z

Stage 1 is expected to take three months work in the field, includingtwo weeks report writing. The report would summarize the activities coveredand set out the format in which the final inventory data would be presented andrecommend updating procedures for the future.

Stage 2. In the event that findings in Stage 1 are negative, the consultant,in collaboration with FD inventory staff, would proceed with a new inventory,based on forest type maps prepared from existing 1/20,000 aerial photography.The inventory would follow the accepted standards employed in this type ofwork and be designed to give data as in (Stage 1 (c)) above to a degree ofaccuracy suitable for making the necessary decisions for allocations of woodto end uses and for pulp mill feasibility and timing.

In the event of Stage 2 becoming operative, it is expected theconsultant would continue his assignment for additional nine months to finalizethis work.

PMLTS ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~NNX


Pilot P]antations, Reseqrch T and Pulipja Tests

Sae

A. Brief Reviw of PIantaticas and Forestry Research

Choice of 3pecies 1

Nurseries1

Yieldd Litation 1-3

B. ProJect Comvogat

Pilot Plantations 3

Nurery Research 41- 5

lslblisa nt and Cultussl Techniques 5 - 6

Genetic Trials 7

Species Trials 7Provenance Trials 7 - 8Progey Testing 8

Seed Production 8

Seed Trees and Seed Stands 8 - 9Seed Orchards 9

Annual Phasing of Nursery and Plantations Program 10

iNagMmat 10

Cask 10

Rbod Pulp Test. I0 - 11

1. Isferen"e2. Climatic Data3. TieldADta4. Pssdble Species ad Proveace. for Trials5. Calculation of Plat Requirenents for Nursery Techniques6. Calculation of Plant Requirementa for Cultural Techniques7. Calmilation of Plant Requirements for Gentic Triala8. Anual. Phasng of Nursery Program9. Arnua Phasing of Plating Program

10. Suary of Anml Planting and Nurswy Prosans11. Local and Scientific Names -Of Sesoted Tme Specie

-AKISTANPage 1


Pilot F]antationis, Reseairch TriaLs and PU]pInR Taste

A. BRS R F PLAFROMMS Dps

Choice of sRecies for plantation

]. Within Hazara district many species have been used in streetside andstreamside plantings, largely for firewood and fodder. These have not beencompared systematically for either purpose, nor for pole or sawnwoodproduction. No attention has been given to seed source within any of thesespecies.

2. For plantations on a larger scale, several species have been usedin the FAO/World Food Program project, including particularly P. roxburRhtiiRobina pseudoacacia, Ailanthus altissima and Eucalyptus camaldulensis.L2Sixteen thousand acres are reported to have been planted but the location /3and'survival percentage of these is not clear. Most planted trees seen bythe Mission members had been planted with the plastic bags still around theroots. Some species and provenances have been raised at a poor, floodednursery at Abbottabad by FRI and a formal trial of chir pine prbvenanceswas planted near Mansehra. For rigorous testing improved nursery stockwill be essential.

Nurseries

3. Within the World Food Program excellent production of fruit treesand other hardwoods was observed. However, the nursery techniques forpines were inadequate with a poor soil mixture that allowed little aerationor irrigation and no root penetration. Nutrient content appeared low butno fertiliser was applied. Watering was done by hand from watering cansfitted with coarse spray-nozzles ("roses"); the amount of water reachingindividual plants was inadequate even if it had been able to penetrate thesoil in the plastic bags. Considerable research and development isnecessary to determine suitable nursery techniques for use in a commercialafforestation scheme.

Yield estimation

4. in preparing a plantation program and a pulpmill proposal it is necessaryto obtain estimates of wood yield but no formal sample plot statistics areavailable for plantations in Hazara. Many volume tables for different specieshave been prepared in Pakistan (see Appendix 1 ) but little informationon yield hsbeen published. Many temporary and permanent sample plots have beenmeasured recently in natural chir pine forests and data are bein; processed;however, at present the original Indian yield tables for chir piDn (Howard,1926), blue pine (Champion et 1., 1929) and deodar (Champion and Mahendru,1933) are used (by PFI staff, not by many local forest officers) and thepost-partition updated publications from FRI, Dehra Dun, are not availablein Pakistan (e.&. chir pine: Seth, Dabral and Lala, 1972; silver fir:Chaturvedi, 1973a; blue pine (kail): Chaturvedi, 1973b).

5. Extracts from several sources are given in Appendix 3. With theexception of a plantation at Supkhar, India, these are all from limples innaturally regenerating forests (sometimes of mixed species) with VadDusages, stockings, amounts of damage and thinnings; nevertheless tiey suggestthat mean annual increments for total yield of chir pine woos (uderbark to2 inches diameter) average approximately 100 cu.ft/acre (7 m /ha> to 20-25years on good quality sites. Data from sample plots in Murree UiLUs slightly1ar , _l al w yield dat! are contained ih 4Apendices 1,2 and S.

filso AG"iA &oA&&U, A2egculM Yj ea pOpLal8n/Inthe Daur and Kunhar watersheds.

Page 2

exceed this and these sites are believed inferior to many of the sites inHazara District (most of which are placed in the Chir Quality Class 1).

6. Yields from well managed plantations at 8 x 8 or 10 x 10 ft with littleor no thinning could be expected to be superior because of the better initi4igrowth obtained from vigorous nursery stock, good establishment and weedcontrol, andthe more uniform distribution of growth to all crop trees w.thno thinning. Yields should approach 120 cu.ft/acre (8.4 m3tha) at O0-2Syears. On the basis of current yield tables, the mean diameter at this agewould approximate 8-9 inches overbark, approximately 7-8 inches underbarkat breast height. A carefully documented 0.5 acre plot at Supkhar (MadhyaPradesh, Indk, south of the natural range of chir pine and at 2,280 ftaltitude but still subject to frost) planted at 6 3x 6 ft spacing in 1907,yielded an average3 MAI of 171 cu .ft/acre (12.0 m /ha) at 20 years and 174cu.ft/acre (12.2 m /ha) at 60 years with mean diameters of 5.5 inches and12.6 inches (see Appendix 3).

7. The use of seed from carefully selected provenances, s*ed stands andseed trees should improve yields by a further 5-10% for plantationsestablished from the third or fourth year. Another 10-15% gain may beobtainable from selective breeding for plastations established from thetenth year.

8. These yields obtained and predicted are summarised thus:-

Type of forest and source of information MAI to 20 years DM

cu.ft/ac. *3/ha oc, laches

Natural forests

Indian yield tables, class 1 88 6.2 5.8Murree Hills, PFI 1976 data, class 1 103 7.2 5.3Razara prediction (PFI assess better thanMurree) 110 7.7 6.0

Plantations

Predict Hazara with good stock and techaiques 120 8.4 8.0Predict Hazara with seed stands/seed trees 125 8.7 8.5Predict Hazara with seed orchards 140 9.8 9.0Supkhar 171 12.0 5.5

These are average underbark figures for the whole project area. It isrecognised that the considerable variation between geological, pedologicaland climatic characters that occur within the area will cause parallelvariation in wood yleld (on both a per-tree and a per-acre basis). Thesevariations inltensify the need for a detailed site survey of the projectarea. Bark thickness itself varies with site and genotype but particularlywith age; up to 25 years it approximates 20%.

9. In view of chir pine's adaptation to local conditions of high and lowtemperature, rainfall distribution, fire and soil type, it is possible thatno other coniferous species will compete with its growth rate. Neverthelessother,exotic species may yield better and should be tested under goodmanagement.

iTLiPage 3

10. Arising from this review, it is possible to consider a joint approachto timber and pulp production in a single, well-managed project. Long-fibredpulp may be produced initially on a 20-25 year clear-fell rotation to meet theinitial requLirements of a pulpuill; mean annual icrenents (MAI) should increasefrom a conservative estimate of 98 cu.ft/acre (7 m'/ha) initially to 126 ou.ft/acre(9 m3/ha) when improved species, provenancea and/or trees are available. This pulpphase should merge into a pulp-plus-timber phase with timber obtained from a 35-40year rotation to capitalize on maximum MAI's (140-154 cu.ft/acre; 10-11 m3/ha).Thinnings and smallwood would still be used for pulp.

II. 1hile the production of long-fibred coniferous pulp is desirable in theReserve forests, faster-growing hardwood species will be more attractive to Guzaraouera. Although many hardwood trees have been planted for fuel or fodder alongroadsides and streacsides virtually no pure plantation blocks have been establishedand no yield assessments have been made. However, with eareful ohoice of speopes/provenances (especially among eucalypts), with good nursery stock and with efficientplantation techniques, mean annual increments of 168-210 cu.ft/acre (12-15 m /ha)should be obtainable on 10-12 year rotations. It will be necessary to convinceGuzara owners of the feasibility of this proposal by demonstration in well-managedpilot plantations.

B. COMPCNENTS

12. A central core of the proposed project is a progrm of pilotplantations supported by intensive research into nursery and plantation techniques,by genetic improvement, and by tests of the suitability of the raw material forpulping.

Pilot p] antations

]3. (a) The proposed program includes the establishment of plantations ofpine and hardwoods (poplars and a-der on wet sites near streams, eucalypts andother species in drier sites - see Appendix 4 for suggested species); theplantations would be established in both Reserved Forest and in Guzara Forestswith emphasis on hardwoods in the treeless Guzaras to demonstrate their fastgrowth and economic advantages to private owners.

(b) The planting program would increase annually over the 5-year periodfrom a modest start with current techniques and locally collected seed of chir,eucalypt and poplar to a final annual target approximately that of the fullcommercial afforestation phase. By the third year improved nursery techniquesshould yield consistently better stock and improved planting techniques shouldyield better survival and initial growth. Throughout the period trials ofintroduced species and provenances and the provision of improved seed should continue.

(c) Pilot plantations sho-ald be located in compact blocks on land that istypical of the major areas to be afforested. Without prejudging the results of thesite survey and classification, it should be possible to select two or threedifferent site types (different in geology, soil, altitude and/or aspect),accessibl.e to the project headquarters and central nArsery, and with sufficient landin adjacent Reserve and Guzara Forests. The proposed planting program would thusbe approximately as follows :-

Sm!gezz_g]otiantation s bB yp c sjtetandyar (acres)

_____ 1~2 2 3 4 Toto

Chir pine Site type 1 100 100 200 kW 800(Reserve) Site type 2 lO0 l00 200 400 800

Site type 3 100 200 400 700Hardwoods Site type I (drY) 50 50 100 200 loQ 800

,Totals Site type 2 wet 150 3X ° 1 8 20 4i8

ANNEX 2Pare 4

Nursery Research

J4.(a)General. Current nursery practice is poor, particularly for chir pine,and contributes to poor field survival and growth. The present soil mixtureand watering regimes are not conducive to balanced root development. Someplants have virtually no lateral roots and those that are present areconcentrated in the upper few millimetres of soil; others have a tap rootthat has reached the bottom of the polythene bag and curled around, thuspredisposing the plant to a permanently deformed root system in the field.A thorough program of nursery research is desirable to determine economictechniques for the production of rigorous planting stock at the right timeof year.

(k) Almost all nursery operations are subject to significant variationand these variations have impotant effects on the size, vigour and survivalof planting stock. For each operation a range of techniques should betested in designed, comparative experiments. It is most convenient tolocate all nursery research in one central nursery but a satellite sub-station is provided in case a separate afforestation area is located inwhich some conditions differ. The main centre can also supply plants forthe pilot plantations and, later, it can be expanded to form the maincommercial nursery. Provision is made for staff, accommodation and equipment,including vehicles and irrigation system; the irrigation system wouldcomprise a diesel engine (e..&. Lister 3 cylinder with life of 6-10 years),a pump and a conventional, manually-moved, aluminium pipe and sprinklersystem providing approximately 0.30 inches water equivalent per plant perday. Enquiries of European suppliers indicate that total capital cost (f.o.b.)for a 5 acre nursery would be approximately PRs. 63,000. Provision is alsomade for a meteoroJogical station to be set up in the central nursery (temperature,rainfall, humidity, wind records) with six satellite rain gauges in the majorsite types.

(c) In the discussions below it is assumed that all planting stock willbe tubed. Bare-rooted plants of pine are known to be unsuitable in Hazaraand bare-rooted hardwoods are also unlikely to be successful. In thecalculations of nursery requirements a standard pot size is assumed althoughnursery research may indicate that different species require differenttube sizes. No allowance is made for the small area of sowing beds sinceall pot requirements have been rounded up. All pots should be covered withX inch medium gravel to prevent hardening of the soil surface. Most seedsshould be sown at a depth equal to 2-3 times the seed diameter.

(d)The derivations of the numbers of plants required for nursery experimentsare given in Appendix 5.

(e)Sowing time. This is normally related to the required size of plantingstock and to the conditions (rainfall, temperature and insolation) at thetime of sowing. Planting may be practised in winter or in the monsoon andthere is a range of sowing times that could produce suitable planting stock.

(f) Soil mixture and sand fraction. Various mixtures of soil, sand andhumus should be tested to obtain sufficient aeration, irrigation and rootdevelopment. Soil should be collected from chir forest to ensure mycorrhization.Humus is generally undesirable in pine nurseries because it increasesdamping-off disease and may transport spores of needle disease (Lophodermium).In tests of soil mixture a standard NPK fertilizer could be added.

AUA ZPage 5

Ct) Fertilizers. Trials of N,P,K and Mg at 3 levels each and traceelements (boron, copper and zinc at one level) are proposed since nurseryfertilization costs little yet has a significant effect on plant growth.It is also necessary to determine the frequency of application of fertilizers.

(h) Bag/tube size. Bags have commonly been used in Hazara because itwas believed that tubes lose soil and damage the plants in transit.Elsewhere this has not been found true; open tubes minimise root curlingand also allow root pruning where necessary. A range of sizes should becompared; large tubes may produce larger root systems but the costs oftransporting soil to the nursery and tubed plants to the field are high.Long narrow tubes encourage deep rooting which is suitable for naturallytap-rooted species.

(i) Root pruning. This is practised to stimulate lateral developmentof roots and the production of a dense, fibrous root system. Tubed stockmay be root pruned at various times of the year (depending on the size oftube and whether roots have reached the bottom). Comfion methods are tolift each tube individually and cut the protruding roots with a hand-knifeor to prune all the tubes in a nursery section by a long-knife or wire.

(j) Watering regime. Normally the nursery would be watered by theirrigation system and distribution rates can be calculated from knowledgeof the nursery area, pump capacity, tube diameter, sprinkler density andhours of operation (see e.g. Paul, 1972). However, water requirementsvary between species and trials of actual amounts are required, usingmeasured amounts applied by hand.

15. Development of establishment and cultural techniques

(a) General. Current practice requires replacement of 25% of all plantedstock in the first year, 10% in the second year and a few trees in the thirdyear. Later deaths or poor growth may also be expected from trees plantedwith the nursery tubes in place around the roots. This is an expensivewaste of nearly one-third of all nursery stock plus the supervision andlabour of replanting. Also an improvement to 95% survival in the firstyear would effectively reduce the rotation age by 1-2 years. An equalreduction may be caused by improved initial growth (in the slow portion ofthe sigmoid growth curve) obtained from better ground preparation and post-planting cultural treatments.

(b) Throughout the field trials it is recommended that two provenances ofchir pine be used to minimise the chance of using a source that is nottypical of the species. The derivations of plant requirements are given inAppendix 6. Allowance is made for a representative range of experiments at aSub-Station in a different area if one is identified.

ANE 2Pa,e 6

(c) Ground preparation. Excavated pits of different sizes should be com-pared with simple crowbar holes; different reponses may be detected on dif-ferent soil types.

(d) Spacing. The study of spacing effects is a long-term project but itshould be initiated early in the program since initial spacing affects peracre costs and yields, especially in plantations that may be managed on along rotation for timber. Ideally spacing studies would be coordinated withthinning studies but, at this stage, thinning trials cannot be initiated(until pilot plantations reach possible thinning age, although thinning maynot be necessary in pine pulpwood plantations).

(e) Spacing trials may be laid out with systematic designs (Nelder's cir-cular or "clinal" designs) but these are somewhat difficult to lay out andanalyse. Randomised complete block designs with equal plot areas (i.e.unequal numbers of tree per plot for the different spacings) are recommended.

(f) Altitudinal effects. These are particularly pronounced in chir pineand a trial of extreme altitudinal provenances on a range of plantationaltitudes and aspects is recommended.

(g) Size of planting stock. Size of plants and the root/shoot balance areimportant in survival and early growth particularly where long dry seasonsoccur or where weed competition is severe. In many afforestation programsplants are too large and a range of sizes from 20-40 cm should be tested.

(h) Fertilization. N, P and K applied soon after planting may have majoreffects, depending on the site type, and at least two levels of each (i.e.none vs. some) should be tested in all combinations. If significant majore3fects orinteractions are detected it may be necessary to proceed to a full3 factorial to determine the economic response surface. It will also bedesirable later to determine the effect of fertilizer on pole-stage crops.

(i) Season of planting. This study should be coordinated with studies ofnursery sowing time and size of planting stock. Late winter, early monsoonand mid/late monsoon are all potential planting times.

(j) Weeding intensity. The need for weeding will depend on the site con-ditions. It is expensive but desirable where weed growth is vigorous orwhere dry seasons are so severe that competition for limited water is serious.Tests should compare spot and strip weeding at various frequencies.

ANNEX 2

Genetic Trials

15 .(a)General. Although the nearest indigenous species is the safest andsimplest with which to initiate a plantation program, exotic species may befaster-growing or have superior properties. While chir pine may be grown inReserved Forest, its relatively long rotation (20-25 years for pulp) willnot be attractive to Guzara owners and a fast-growing species is required;in particular short-fibred exotic species such as eucalypts and poplarswould be economically attractive and technically acceptable for pulp. Inaddition some introduced species would produce firewood and fodder.

(b)The genetic component of the proposed project therefore includes threemain lines of attack:- (i) species trials (including two or more provenancesof some species) to identify well-adapted, fast-growing species for pulpwood,timber, firewood and fodder, (ii) provenance trials of wide-ranging species,including chir pine and the most likely hardwoods, to identify the best seedsources and (iii) selective breeding of chir pine through plus trees, progenytrials and seed orchards to improve the growth rate (and later the wood prop-erties if necessary) of this local, adapted species. The conduct of speciesand provenance trials in the nursery and field stages is described in detailby Burley and Wood (1976)/1. The trials in a given year should be raisedunder the nursery and plantation techniques that are currently believedoptimum ("best information technique"). Provision is made in the project forthree range officers to cover nursery development, establishment researchwith the pilot plantations, and genetic research. The genetic and silvi-cultural aspects of the program should be conducted with the advice and directparticipation of the PFI genetic and silvjc&lduial st ff. the Sites., replications andareas for the trials discussed below are ta UIa ea - Appenlxr.

(c)Species trials. It would be theoretically desirable but practicallyuneconomic to proceed through stages of species elimination (trials of manyspecies for short duration), species testing (fewer possible species,k-krotation) and species proving or crop performance (2-3 probable species for½-1 rotation in plots large enough to estimate yields and undertake manage-ment studies). In this project it is necessary to compress these stages andselect fewer species for initial comparison with the indigenous chir pine andwith the widely used hardwoods (e.&. E. camaldulensis, Robinia pseudoacacia).

(d) Possible species are listed in Appendix 4 together with indications ofpossible seed suppliers. The main groups of species are conifers for longfibre in Reserved Forests and thardwoods for firewood, pulpwood or fodder;these hardwoods would largely be grown commercially in Guzara Forests but thespecies and provenance trials would be conducted in secure, accessible buttypical sites in Forest Reserves.

(e) Provenance trials. These require careful collection and documentationof seed from known sources to determine the pattern of variation; if this isnot already known, and to identify the best provenance(s) for individualsites. In the case of exotic species written requests must be made tonational or international agencies for supply of seed; such material may beexpensive and should be carefully stored, and treated in the nursery and field.

(C) The most promising species at this stage for which provenance trials arealready justified are chir pine (for which a small provenance trial already

/1 A copy of this Manual was left with the Director-General, PFI, Peshawar.

ANNEX 2Pa -eM

exists near Mansehra) and the related eucalypts E. camaldulensis andE. tereticornis (see Pryor, 1967; Qadri, 1968). Seeds of dry zone prov-enances of these two may be requested from the Division of Forestry, CSIRO,Canberra. Considerable work on E. camaldulensis has already been done inother parts of Pakistan (see Hafeez and Sheikh, 1973; Qadri, 1969) but nobin Hazara District.

(g)Progeny testing. The last stage of genetic improvement that involvescomparative trials is the phase of progeny testing in species that form amajor and well-established part of the project (initially chir pine here).It is undertaken for three main purposes:-

(i) Estimation of population variances, based on open-pollinatedprogeny of random dominant or co-dominant trees, to determine thegenetic structure of the population, to determine the breeding strategyand to predict genetic gain.

(ii) Evaluation of plus trees, based on open-pollinated or control-pollinated progeny of superior phenotypes (see below), to estimatebreeding values and facilitate secondary selection.

(iii) Creation of selection plantings, large blocks of known parentageto permit between-family and within-family selection.

Seed Production

17.(a)The amount of seed required each year will vary with species and plantingprogram but it is desirable to be self-sufficient in seed supply at theearliest opportunity for two reasons. Firstly, purchase of seed places thebuyer at the mercy of foreign suppliers (cost, availability and reliability).Secondly, local seed may be improved genetically from the outset of the pro-gram. Provision is made for purchase of simple equipment for extraction andrefrigerated storage of seed (particularly chir pine since this speciesflowers at 2-3 year intervals and several years' supplies must be maintained).Limited facilities for seed and pollen testing are also included.

(b)Seed trees and seed stands. Current seed collection in chir pine ishaphazard, from poor phenotypes and with little or no supervision by pro-fessional staff. In future seed should be collected from superior trees(selected at a low intensity of about 5 per acre in uniform forest) and fromseed stands (phenotypically the best stands available at fruiting age andthinned heavily to stimulate crown development and flower production). Thisshould secure a small amount of genetic gain, good control of seed origin andrecords, a greater interest on the part of field staff, and greater care inseed handling and nursery treatment. Gradually seed stand seed would bereplaced by seed from orchards derived from superior phenotypes ("plus trees")selected for form and vigour at moderate intensity (1 per 1-5 acres) in uni-form forest.

ANNEl 2Page 9

(c) Seed orchard requirements and vegetative propagation. Estimates of theage of onset of flowering in chir pine varied between 25 and 60 years with thePFI geneticists favouring the younger ages. Certainly trees of approximately20 years were seen to be flowering and by 25 years reasonable commercialcrops might be expected. Nevertheless this is too long to wait for seed pro-duction from a seedling seed orchard and vigorous attempts should be made toperfect techniques for vegetative propagation.

(d) Air-layering is successful with chir pine but it is tedious and expens-ive. Grafting has so far been unsuccessful, largely because grafts of theveneer type are difficult with thick-barked species. Tip cleft systems wouldbe more likely to succeed and should be developed. Successful grafting hasbeen reported in India (Khosla /1 , 1976). It is not recommended to studytechniques of rooting needle fascicles since these require careful controlof the rooting and aerial environments.

(e) Assuming that vegetative propagation of mature trees is adopted, grafts(ramets) should flower within 2-3 years of grafting. Cones yield 50 seeds inchir pine (cf. 100-130 in blue pine) and a large-crowned tree contains 50cones, or 2,500 seeds. At a spacing of 15 x 15 ft (to encourage crown andflower development) this produces 194 ramets and 485,000 seeds/acre at fullproduction. Assuming 750 plants per acre of plantation (allowing 10% replace-ment and 8 x 8 ft spacing) one acre of seed orchard would supply 650 acres ofplantation. However, good seed years occur every third year in chir pine sothat a store of seed must be maintained for the two poor years. An effectiveyield would thus approximate 300 acres of plantation per acre of seed orchard.

(f) If 50,000 acres are to be afforested with improved seed over 25 years,this requires 2,000 acres of plantations annually obtainable from 7 acres of

seed orchard or 1,358 grafts (say 30 ramets of 50 plus tree ortets = 1500grafts = 7.7 acres). For security the orchard should be repeated on twosites, espectally since excess seed can be used for other plantation areas(e..&. Azad Kashmir, Murree, Dir and Swat). Thus a total of 15 acres ofclonal seed orchard is desirable, at the rate of 5 acres/year for the lastthree years of the project. No allowance for the 2,910 seedling stocks isgiven in Appendix 7, since generous allowances for seedlings have been madein other nursery developments.

(g) The research on vegetative propagation and the seed orchard developmentwould be undertaken by the Range Officer (genetics) under the supervision ofthe project manager and with the advice and cooperation of the PFI geneticist.

/1 Pers. comm. Dr. P.K. Khosla, Department of Forestry, HimachalPradesh University

ANNEX 2Page 10

Annual phasing of nursery and plantation programs

18. (a) The pilot plantation and research programs are phased to allow aprogressive build-up in staff, facilities, expertise and information,beginning with small areas of known species and building up to a plantationlevel that is equivalent to annual requirements in the second phase (fullycommercial) of the pulpwood program. Most work is concentrated at the maincenter with representative samples in the sub-station.

(b) The main nursery research should be undertaken in the first twoyears and the main silvicultural and genetic research in years 2-4.However, it is emphasized that research and development of improvedtechniques or populations are dynamic processes that continue throughouta plantation program. Further no research or plantation program can bemeaningful without rigorous protection from animals, men and fires.

(c) Details of the annual nursery requirements for nursery research,silvicultural research, genetic trials and pilot plantations are given inAppendix 8. Field area requirements for silvicultural and geneticresearch and pilot plantations are listed in Appendix 11. A summary ofboth nursery and planting programs is given in Appendix 12. Includingthe possible sub-station, total area planted in five years would beslightly less than 5,000 acres and total nursery production wouldapproximate 3.7 million plants.

Management

19. The foregoing activities would be under the direct responsibility of theAssistant Project Director who would be responsible to the Chief Conservator ofForests, NWFP, (Project Director). He would be assisted by an internationallyrecruited specialist for the first three years of the project, (see Annex 3),three Range Forest Officers (Grade 17) and six Foresters (Grade 5). A detaileddescription of project management is given in Annex 6.

Costs

20. Detailed physical requirements and costs of the central nursery,research trials and pilot plantations are contained in Table 2 of the mainreport.

Wood and pulp tests

21. The Forest Products Research Division of PFI is able to examinethe physical, mechanical and anatomical properties of wood but has nofacilities for testing the suitability of wood for pulping. Most pinespecies have long fibres and have usually been found suitable for kraftpulping, although yields are sometimes low because of low wood density.Chir pine from natural forest appears to have acceptable density and, withmodern pulping technology, stem resin is no problem.

ANNEX 2Page 11

22. Before embarking on a major pulpwood plantations program however,it would be necessary to evaluate the pulping characteristics on a commercialbasis. This would provide a definitive assessment of timber properties onwhich to base forest industries development and associated plantationsdevelopment.

23. The project would finance bulk testing of 1-ton of Chir pine atan internationally recognized laboratory (e.g., Canada, Finland, U.SoA.)and include the costs of shipping, laboratory testing, literature searchand reporting. A Pakistan specialist should attend the test and preparehis own report on the processes and results and these expenses are includedin the costs. Estimated total costs are PRs. 305,000 and are detailed inTable 2 of the main report.

24. The project director would coordinate with the Pakistan ForestInstitute in arranging for the tests, for which PFI would take primaryresponsibility. The timing of the tests would be arranged so that resultswould be available for inclusion in the data presented for the industrialfeasibility study - see Annex 5.

25. Pulping tests of other likely species would be conducted in thefollow-up phase when their growth potential has been confirmed.

ANNEX 2d= ena I

Page I

References(Not all are quoted in thetext)

A. References relating to tree volumes,growth and yield in Pakistan

Anon. 1969. Standard volume tables for coniferous species of northern WestPakistan (Height-diameter-volume tables). Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar,For. Res. Ser., For. Rec. No. 2, 66 p.

Champion, H.G. and Mahendru, I.D. 1933. Multiple yield tables for deodar(Cedrus deodara London). Indian For. Rec. 15 (8), 116 p.

Champion, H.G., Suri, P.N. and Mahendru, I.D. 1929. Yield tables for bluepine. Indian For. Rec., Silvic. 13, 29 p.

Hafeez, M. 1973. Provisional mine timber and pit props tables for Acaciaarabica riverain forests and linear plantations for south part ofWest Pakistan. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.

Hafeez, M., and Cheema, M.A. 1971. Provisional volume tables for babul inlinear plantations. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.

Hafeez, M., Malik, M.A. and Moosvi, S-H.A. 1973. Volume tables for shishamin linear plantationsof West Pakistan. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.

Howard, S.M. 1926. Yield and volume tables for chir (Pinus longifolia.)Indian For. Rec. 12 (5), 21 p.

Hussain, R.W. and Abbas, S.H. 1947. Volume tables for shisham in irrigatedplantations of the Punjab. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.

Hussain, R.W. and Abbas, S.H. 1973. A typical stand profile of chir pine(Pinus roxburghii). Pak. J. For. 23: 372-6.

Hussain, R.W. and Cheema, M.A. 1970. Estimating precise diameter and breastheight (4.5') of tapped trees of chir pine in Haripur Forest Division.Pak. J. For. 20: 185-8.

Hussain, R.W. and Cheema, M.A. 1973. Provisional volume table for poplarin Mardan. Pak. J. For. 23: 64-73.

Hussain, R.W. and Qazi, I.H. 1973. Site index curves for chir pine (Pinusroxburghii). Pak. J. For. 23: 354-62.

Hussain, R.W. and Qazi, I.R. 1974. Volume tables for Kaghan walnut. Pak.For. Inst., Peshawar.

Malik, M.A. 1970. Local volume tables of the coniferous species of northernWest Pakistan. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar, For. Res. Ser., For. Rec.No. 3. 42 p.

Malik, M.A. and Hussain, R.W. 1971. Estimation of double bark thicknessfor mulberry in irrigated plantations. Pak. J. For. 21: 19-26.

Malik, M.A. and Hussain, R.W. and Cheema, M.A. 1971. Volume tables formulberry in irrigated plantation. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.

Appendix IPage 2

Malik, M.A., Hussain, R.W. and Hanif, M. 1967. Construction of volume tablesof the coniferous species of northern regions of West Pakistan.Pak. J. For. 17: 69-80.

Malik, M.A. and Moosvi, S.H.A. 1970. Commercial volume tables for willow.Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.

Qazi, I.H. and Abbas, S.H. 1974. Metric log volume tables with diameterconversion and basal area tables. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.

Qadri, S.M.A. and Hafeez, M. 1969. Volume tables for Acacia arabicariverain forests of West Pakistan. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.

Qazi, I.H. and Cheema, M.A. 1974. Local volume tables for babul ofBahawalpur canal plantations. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.

Qazi, I.H. and Hussain, R.W. 1975. Local metric volume tables ofconiferous species for Malakand Civil Division. Pak. For. Inst.,Peshawar, For. Res. Div., For. Mens. Br., Publ. 35, 27 p.

Seth, S.K., Dabral, S.N. and Lala, M.K. 1972. Yield and stand tables forchir (Pinus roxburghii Sargent) high forest. Indian For. Rec.,Silvic. 11 (8), 261 p.

B. Indian yield and stand tables not available in Pakistan

Chaturvedi, A.N. (1973a). Stand volume and yield tables for silver fir.Indian For. Rec. (N.S.) Silvic. 12(5), 11 p.

Chaturvedi, A.N. (1973b). Stand volume and yield tables for Kail (Pinuswallichianak. Indian For. Rec. (N.S.) Silvic. 12(11), 16 p.

Seth, S.K., Dabral, S.N. and Lala, M.K. (1972). Yield and stand tables forchir (Pinus roxburghii Sargent) high forest. Indian For. Rec. (N.S.)Silvic. 11(8): 151-261.

C. Other references quoted in text

Burley, J. and P.J. Wood (1976). A manual on species and provenance researchwith particular reference to the tropics. Trop. For. Pap. 10, Commonw.For. Inst., Oxford. 226 p.

Greaves, A. and J.F. Hughes (1976). Site assessment in species and prov-enance research. In: A manual on species and provenance research withparticular reference to the tropics (J. Burley and P.J. Wood, compilers).Commonw. For. Inst., Oxford. 226 p.

Jan, A. (1972). Land use survey of Siran and Daur Rivers Watersheds. NorthWest Frontier Forest Records Inventory Series (3). Aerial ForestInventory Project, PFI, Peshawar. 88 p.

Hafeez, M. and M.I. Sheikh. 1973. Eucalyptus camaldulensis provenancetrials in West Pakistan at age 6 years. In: Tropical provenance andprogeny research and international cooperation (eds. J. Burley andD.G. Nikles). Commonw. For. Inst., Oxford. 597 p.

ANNEX 2Apndix I

Page 3

Paul, D.K. 1972. A handbook of nursery practice for Pinus caribaea var.hondurensis and other conifers in West Malaysia. Wkg. Pap. 19, UNDP/FAQ FO:SF/MAL 12 (W8/F8204). 139 p. Kuala Lumpur.

Pryor, L.D. 1967. Past performance and future prospects for the use ofEucalyptus in West Pakistan. UNDP/FAO Pakistan National ForestryResearch and Training Project, Rept. No. 1. Peshawar. 19 p.

Qadri, S.M.A. 1968. The selection of Australian species for afforestationin West Pakistan: a rational approach. Dept. Agric., Govt. W.Pakistan. 144 p.

Qadri, S.M.A. 1969. Provenance trials of Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Dehn.in West Pakistan. In: Proc. Second World Consultation on Forest TreeBreeding, Washington, D.C., 7-16 August, 1969. Vol. 1 : 863-72.

Qureshi, I.M. and J.S. Yadav. 1967. Studies on forest soils during prep-aration of working plans. Indian For. 93(4) 199-219.

ANME 2ndix 2

Page ]

Climatic data for selected stations in Hazara

A. Monthly rainfall (inches)

/1 /2 /2 /3 GarhiABalakot - Balakot - Naran - Mansehra - Habibullah

January 2.89 3.02 2.54 2.10 2.54

February 5.74 5.12 11.58 1.92 3.14

March 5.75 5.37 13.27 4.29 5.64

April 6.51 5.63 10.07 3.10 5.24

May 2.90 2.40 3.55 2.13 4.17

June 2.30 2.91 1.01 0.95 0.75

July 10.90 13.33 2.30 6.55 14.03

August 10.80 9.52 1.50 5.97 9.45

September 6.33 4.19 2.44 3.28 2.39

October 1.32 2.03 3.63 1.71 3.71

November 2.31 1.95 1.93 1.41 2.26

December 3.41 2.42 3.05 1.96 2.14

TOTAL 61.16 57.89 56.87 35.36 55.46

/1 1958-65 Source: M.A. Khan. (1970). Working Plan of the Upper KaganGuzara Forests. 1967-68 to 1976-77. 286 p.

/2 1964-74 Source: M.A. Khan. (1970). Working Plan of the Kagan ForestReserve.

/3 1955-64 ̂ Source: F.R. Khan. (1967). Working Plan for Lower Kagan/4 1963-64 Guzara Forests. 1966-67 to 1975-76. 299 p.

B. Average rainfall (inches) for 1953-62

Station Elevation Rainfall Station Elevation Rainfall(ft) (ins) _ (ft) (ins)

Tarbela 1320 31 Mansehra 3884 35Haripur 1699 33 Garhi Habibullah 2855 55Khanpur 1984 35 Daddar 4113 53Abbottabad 4730 48 Balakot 3258 52Kakul 6107 49 Battal 4834 48Donga gali 9208 60 Oghi 3793 46

(Source: A. Jan (1972). Land use survey of Siran and Daur Rivers Watersheds.N.W. Frontier For. Rec., Inventory Ser. 3. 88 p.)

AME 2Appendix 2Page z

C. Temperature ( F)

NARAN BALAKOT

Months Max: Min: Average Max: Min: Average

January 38.0 19.5 28.7 57.7 33.7 45.7February 40.0 21.5 30.7 59.8 41.0 50.4March 45.0 27.0 36.0 66.6 46.9 56.7April 49.3 34.0 41.6 74.2 54.7 64.4May 64.6 47.6 56.1 83.8 62.0 72.9June 76.6 53.6 65.1 94.7 73.1 83.9July 77.0 51.0 64.0 89.3 70.6 79.9August 78.0 54.6 66.3 87.1 70.0 78.5September 68.6 49.3 58.9 86.3 64.8 75.5October 62.6 31.0 46.8 80.0 54.1 67.0November 52.3 36.0 44.1 69.2 42.5 55.8December 44.3 22.3 33.3 60.2 36.1 48.1

D. Relative humidity (%)

NARAN BALAKOT

Months 0800 Hours 1700 Hours 0800 Hours 1700 Hours

January 64 68 78 59February 75 70 72 58March 70 71 68 57April 69 68 61 49May 58 - - -June 45 39 48 36July 49 47 70 57August 55 53 81 69September 62 49 73 60October 60 58 70 52November 71 63 71 53December 61 64 75 55

NOTE: Naran - Average for four years (1962-65)Balakot - Average for seven years (1962-68)

4~ppndi.x 2Page 3

.i,

Temperat ure -

6j RRAINFALL IOYews Average

.4

3- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~9Fw

* _ _ Max. Oyears) i:

'4 p.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~a

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Oec

Rainfall and Temperature Data Recorded at Kakul.

Source Jan (1972)

ANNEX 26e -enr-..>l. 3

Examples of yield in natural forest and a plantation for severalconifers in Pakistan and India

Main crop MAISpecies, Age, 1 /2Quality years Diameter, Height, No/ SteuwoodL- Total-

o.b., inches ft o.ac cu.ft/ac. cu.ft/ac.

PFI, Peshawar _( /3

Chir 1 10 (100)

20 5.3 35 430 103

30 7.4 48 300 9 104

40 9.2 60 220 30 105

50 11.0 71 165 44 106

Chir 2 10 Many (60)

20 3.4 29 830 78

30 5.0 39 458 85

40 6.6 48 330 2 89

50 8.4 57 231 17 91

Chir 3 10

20 2.6 23 Many 70

30 4.2 30 675 74

40 5.6 37 450 77

50 7.1 44 310 2 80

Seth, Dabral and Lala (1972)

Chir 1 5 0 0

10 0 7

15 4.8 20 654 0 62

20 5.8 35 498 0 88

25 6.7 47 405 10 110

30 7.6 58 339 23 115

Chir 2 5 0 0

10 0 4

15 3.2 12 1083 0 30

20 4.2 24 762 0 51

25 5.2 34 566 2 66

30 6.2 43 445 10 80

=.U2ZRMndf 3Miage 2

Main crop MAISpecies, Age) 1- /Quality years Diameter, Height, No.tac Stevood- Total-'

o.b., inches ft cu.ftiac. cu.ft/ac.

Chaturvedi (1973b)

Kail 1 10 2.5 21 1142

20 5.8 43 621 29 152

30 9.1 63 367 107 197

40 12.4 82 248 158 230

50 15.1 97 189 180 242

Kail 2 10 1.8 16 2160 108

20 4.4 33 854 34 132

30 6.7 48 531 72 152

40 9.0 62 373 102 170

50 11.4 76 277 120 181

Chaturvedi (1973a)

Silver 40 4.4 37 988 15 70

fir 50 7.1 53 581 46 85

60 9.1 64 438 60 92

Supkhar, India/-

Chir 1 5 1.5 9 256

10 2.9 13 157

15 4.3 30 168

20 5.5 39 171

25 6.8 49 178

30 7.9 58 180

35 9.0 66 184

40 9.9 73 186

45 10.7 79 183

50 11.4 85 177

55 12.0 89 176

60 12.6 94 174

/1 Stem timber volume underbark to 8 inch diameter/2 Stem and branch timber volume underbark to 2 inch diameter/3 Data supplied by Mr. Ishaq, Mensuration Officer, PFI, from preliminary

analysis of Murree Hills samples which are believed to be of lower sitequality than Hazara District

/4 Data supplied to IBRD mission to Madhya Pradesh, 1975. Mean annual rain-fall 64 inches. Mean maximum temperature 95 F. Sandy loam soil overlaterite on gentle slope.

ANNEX 2Apeperi,i: X

Pate I

Notes on some possible species and provenances for replicated,comparative trials in various environments /1

A. Sub-tropical montane regions (2,500-5,000 ft) with summer rainfall (e.g.Hazara)

1. Conifers for pulp /2

Pinus caribaea (var. bahamensis from Bahamas for locations wherefrost is rare; seed from CFI, Oxford)

P. elliottii (as far as possible origins from lowP. palustris latitude simmer rainfall areas in USA;P. rigida seed obtainable from USFS Seed Centre,P. taeda Macon, Georgia)P. densiflora (origins from north of range in South Korea; seedP. thunbergiii from Institute of Forest Genetics, Suwon)P. kesiya (Burma, Thailand origins possible; also compare Assam)P. halepensis/ -P. brutia (several provenances within the natural

range, although this is essentially a Mediterranean species)P. tabulaeformis/P. yunnanensis (northern extension of P. kesiya

in China; seed may be obtainable through FAO)P. oocarpa, P. patula, P. radiata (unlikely to succeed in this zone

but worth including in species elimination phase)P. michoacana/P. douglasiana (thick bark, long needles, grass stage,

fire resistant but unlikely to adjust to photoperiod)P. pseudostrobus/P. tenuifolia (high altitude origins with more

evenly distributed rainfall may have potential; seed from CFI,Oxford)

P. ponderosa (high temperature, low latitude origins, e.&. LakeTahoe, California)

P. roxburghii (include both Pakistan and Indian sources)Cupressus arizonica/C. lusitanica/C. torulosa (more useful for timber

than pulp but worthy of trial in the early stages)

2. Hardwoods for pulp, matchwood, furniture, fuel or fodder:

Eucalyptus bicostataE. camaldulensis (4-6 dry zone provenances)E. tereticornisr)E. citriodoraE. cloezianaE. globulusE. melanophloiaE. microtheca (suitable for trial in arid, saline and waterlogged

areas)

/1 Many of these species have already been tested sporadically in Pakistanor are to be included in ARC/PL480 proposal by PFI.

/2 Even in a short-rotation unthinned pulpwood plantation, some butt logsmay be usable for timber. Although none of the species would be tappedfor resin during a 20-25 year rotation it may be feasible to injecttrees with paraquat one year before felling to stimulate the productionof resin that would be extracted in the pulping process.

AUN11 2Apoendix Page 2

E. paniculataE. rudis (All requests for eucalypt seeds should be addressedE. viminalis to Forestry Division, CSIRO, Canberra)Acacia arabicaA. modesta (Also yield tannin. Probably unadapted to local rain-A. mearnsii fall distribution but worthy of trial in the elimination

phase; seed from South Africa, or Tamil Nadu, India)Alnus nitidaPopulus ciliata (mainly for streamsides)Salix tetraspermaBroussonetiaGleditsia tricanthosMorus albaPopulus albaP. euamericanaP. nigraRobinia pseudoacacia (4-5 provenances from Georgia to Pennsylvania, USA)Sapindus mukorossi

B. Moist temperate coniferous region (6-9,000 ft) for pure and mixedplantations

Abies alba Picea abies Pinus flexilis Pseudotsuga menziesiiA. grandis P. obovata P. monticola Thuya plicataA. nordananniana P. omorika P. strobusA. pindrow P. smithiana P. wallichianaCedrus deodaraChamaecyparis pisiferaC. lawsoniana

ANNEX 2

PaOe 1Calculation of plant requirements for development of nursery techniques /1

Subject Year Treatment combinations No. of potsMain centre

Soil mixture /2 1 6 mixtures x 2 provenances 4800x 4 reps x 100 pots

Sand fraction /3 1 6 proportions x 2 proven- 4800ances x 4 reps x 100 pots

NPK Fertilizer /4 1 27 treatments x 1 proven- 8100ance x 3 reps x 100 pots

Mg Fertilizer /5 2 3 levels x 2 provenances 3600x 6 reps x 100 pots

Trace elements A6 2 4 treatments x 2 proven- 4800ances x 6 reps x 100 pots

Repeated fertilizer /7 2 10 treatments x 1 proven- 4,000ance x 4 reps x 100 pots

Bag/tube size /8 2 2 types x 5 sizes x 1 5000provenance x 5 repsx 100 pots

Root pryning /9 3 3 seasons x 2 methods 3600x 1 provenance x 6 repsx 100 pots

Sowing time /9 1 3 seasons x 2 provenances 3600x 6 reps x 100 pots

Watering regime /9, 10 1 4 regimes x 1 provenance 2000x 5 reps x 100 pots

Main centre total: 44,300

Sub-station

Soil mixture /2 2 6 mixtures x 2 provenances 4800x 4 reps x 100 pots

Sand fraction /3 2 6 proportions x 2 proven- 4800ances x 4 reps x 100 pots

NPK fertilizer /4 2 27 treatments x 1 proven- 8100ance x 3 reps x 100 pots

Repeated fertilizer /7 2 10 treatments x 1 proven- 4000ance x 4 reps x 100 pots

Bag/tube size M 3 2 types x 5 sizes x 1 5000provenance x 5 reps x 100pots

Root pruning /9 4 3 seasons x 2 methods x 1 3600provenance x 6 reps x 100pots

Sub-station total 30,300Grand total 74,600

/1 Largely with chir pine initially. Nursery located near Mansehra intypical chir pine zone. The same nursery will produce plants fordevelopment of establishment methods and cultural techniques and forpilot plantations. No spare plants are included for nursery trials sincean assessment of deaths and culls is one object of the experiments.

np277R 5Page 2

/2 Soil:sand:humus at 0:50:50; 50:0:50; 50:50:0; 100:0:0; 0:100:0; 0:0:100Soil would be collected from chir forest to ensure mycorrhization.

/3 Sand:clay/silt with no humus; humus could be undesirable in commericalpractice since Lophodermium pinastri occurs. A standard fertilizertreatment would be applied.

/4 Three levels each of N, P, K in all combinations using a sand-richstandard mixture; applied one month after mean germination.

/5 Three levels of Mg at standard treatment of NPK; applied 1 monthafter mean germination.

/6 Boron, copper and zinc at one level each, plus control with no traceelements, using standard soil and NPK Mg treatment; applied 1 monthafter mean germination.

/7 Standard NPK Mg treatment applied at the following months after meangermination: 0; 1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6; 1+3+5; 2+4+6; 1-6;

/8 Bags and open tubes with the following dimensions using standard soilmixture and NPK Mg fertiliser: 2.5 x 6"; 2.5 x 7"; 3 x 6"; 3 x 7";4 x 7".

/9 Using standard soil, fertiliser and tube size.

/10 Hand-watered, i" equivalent at the following intervals:Daily: a.m. only; a.m. and p.m.Alternate days: a.m. onlyThird day: a.m. onlyThe effective water depth supplied by the irrigation system can beboth calculated and measured.

ANNEt 2

Page ICalculation of plant requirements for development of e.tablishment

and cultural techniques for chir pine

No. ofYear plants Area

Main Centre A3 methods- x 2 provenances-3

Ground preparation 2 x 2 sites/3 x 3 reps/4 x 16trees@ 8 x 8 ft spacing /5 576 0.85

Spacing 2/3 4 spacings/6 x 2 provenances/2x 2 sites/7 x 4 reps/4 x 51trees/6@ 7 x 7 ft mean spacing/6 3264 3.68

Altitudinal effects 3/4/5 3 provenances/8 x 6 sites/9x 2 aspects/10 x 4 reps/4x 59 trees/ll@ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 7056 10.35

Size of planting stock 3 3 sizes/12 x 2 provenances/2x 2 sites/7 x 3 reps/4 x 16trees@ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 576 0.85

Fertilization 3/4 3 fertilizers/13 x 2 levels/13x 2 provenances/2 x 2 sites/7x 3 reps/4 x 16 trees@ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 1536 2.26

Season of planting 3/4 3 seasons/14 x 2 provenances/2x 2 sites/7 x 4 reps/15 x 36trees/15@ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 1728 2.54

Weeding intensity 2/3 4 weedings/16 x 2provenances x 2 sites/7 x 3reps/4 x 16 trees@ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 768 1.12

Sub-station

Season of planting 3 3 seasons/14 x 2 sites/7 x 6reps/4 x 36 trees@ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 1296 1.90

Size of planting stock 3 3 sizes/12 x 2 sites/7 x 4reps/4 x 16 trees@ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 384 0.56

Fertilization 3 3 fertilizers/13 x 2 levels/13x 2 sites/7 x 4 reps x 16 trees@ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 768 1.13

/1 2 pit sizes and 1 crowbar-digging/2 To reduce the chance of detecting atypical responses/3 Deep and shallow soils/4 To obtain a minimum of 10-20 degrees of freedom for residual variance/5 To minimize erosion and weed competition; could be modified by the results

of spacing experiments. On a slope of 45 , the horizontal inter-treedistance is 5.7 ft

A -Re-n-asLx 6Page 2

/6 Equalize plot area not number of trees:5 x 5 ft spacing requires 9 x 9 trees = 816 x 6 8 x 8 = 647 x 7 7 x 7 = 498 x 8 6 x 6 = 369 x 9 5 x 5 = 25

225

Average = 51 and7 x 7 spacing

/7 Either two diverse soil types or two altitudes, confounded with year ofplanting when experiment is planned to extend over two years of planting

/8 From extremes and centre of natural altitudinal range/9 At different altitudes spanning the range of likely planting sites; con-

founded with year of planting and possibly soil effects/10 North and south facing aspects/11 To allow assessment of yield at full rotation/12 20, 30 and 40 cms/13 Factorial combinations of 2 levels each of N, P and K initially; if major

responses or interactions are detected after 4 years, a second series oftrials with 3 levels of each nutrient may be required to examine thecomplete response surface. For young trees of chir pine; mid-rotationfertilization would be tested after 10 years.Fertilizer trials for other species await the results of species trials

/14 February/March; early monsoon; mid-monsoon/fB Effects of within-plot environmental variation will be small in comparison

with the major effects under test/16 Spot and strip weeding, once or twice per season

ANNEX 2APRendix 7Page 1

Calculation of plant requirements for genetic field trials at 8 x 8 ft spacing

No. ofYear Population/site combinations plants Area

Main centre

Species trials

Conifers, pulpwood 2/3/4 12 spp/l x 3 geology/2 x 2 6912 10.20aspects/3 x 6 reps/4 x 16trees/4

Hardwoods, firewood/ 2/3/4 12 spp/l x 3 geology/2 x 2 6912 10.20pulpwood aspects/3 x 6 reps/4 x 16

trees/4

Hardwoods, firewood/ 3/4/5 6 spp/l x 3 geology/2 x 2 5184 7.62fodder aspects/3 x 4 reps/5 x 36

trees/5

Provenance trials

P. roxburghii 2/3/4 10 populations/6 x 3 geology 5760 8.46/2 x 2 aspects/3 x 6 reps/4x 16 trees/4

E. camaldulensis 2/3/4 10 populations/7 x 3 geology 5760 8.46/2 x 2 aspects/3 x 6 reps/4x 16 trees/4

E. tereticornis 2/3/4 6 populations/7 x 3 geology/2 3456 5.07x 2 aspects/3 x 6 reps/4 x 16trees/4

Progeny trials, chir pine

Estimation of popu- 2/3 5 populations/9 x 20 parents 10000 14.70lation variances/8 /10 x 2 sites/il x 5 reps x 10

trees

Evaluation of plus 2/3/4 50 parents/13 x 3 sites/li x 6000 8.82trees/12 4 reps x 10 trees

Selection plantings/14 5 50 parents/13 x 340 trees 17000 25.0

Sub-total 60988 98.53

Sub-station

Species trials

Conifers, pulpwood 3 12 spp/l x 2 sites/li x 4 1536 2.26reps x 16 trees

Hardwoods, firewood/ 4 12 spp/l x 2 sites/il x 4 1536 2.26pulpwood reps x 16 trees

Hardwoods, firewood/ 5 6 spp/l x 2 sites/li x 5 960 1.41fodder reps x 16 trees

ANNEX 2

Page 2

Provenance trials

P. roxburghii 3 10 populations/6 x 2 sites 1600 2.35/11 x 5 reps x 16 trees

Progeny trials

Evaluation of plus 4 50 parents/13 x 1 site x 6 3000 4.41trees reps x 10 trees

Selection plantings 5 50 parents/13 x 68 trees 3400 5.00

Sub-total 12032 17.69

TOTAL 73020 116.22

/1 Possible species for trial are listed in Appendix 4. Seed of all species willnot be available at one time.

/2 Alluvial, sedimentary and volcanic geology; these may be reduced after the sitesurvey.

/3 North and south aspects./4 Many replications and small plots to minimise intra-block environmental variance./5 In estimating fodder production more trees will be needed per plot than to esti-

mate stem growth./6 Including Indian sources supplied by FRI, Dehra Dun, possibly through FAO/

Danish Tree Seed Centre, Humlebaek, Denmark./7 Especially dry zone and high latitude sources, obtainable from Forestry Division,

CSIRO, Canberra, Australia./8 To compare population genetic variances, to compare gain from between-population

and within-population selection, and to estimate population heritabilities basedon above-average phenotypes, not plus trees. (Family block design.)

/9 Representing the range of chir pine in Pakistan./10 Random healthy dominants or co-dominants./11 Representing major afforestation areas./12 To rank selected phenotypes, to estimate and to demonstrate gain (predicted and

realised, by comparison with commercial controls and seed stand/seed orchardmaterial) and to estimate genotype-environment interaction effects.

/13 The number of plus trees will increase continually throughout a breeding pro-gram; tested by open-pollinated progeny.

/14 Large scale plantings to permit later selection of best individuals in bestfamilies thus increasing the selection differential and genetic gain.

AM 2MdMx 8

Page I

Annual phasing of nursery program(Number of plants '000)

YEAR1 2 3 4 5 Total

Main centre

Development of nursery techniques

Sowing time 3.6 - - - - 3.6

W atering regime 2.0 - - - - 2.0Soil mixture 4.8 - - - - 4.8

Sand fraction 4.8 - - - - 4.8

NPK fertilizer 8.1 - - - - 8.1

Mg fertilizer - 3.6 - - - 3.6

Trace elements - 4.8 - - - 4.8

Repeated fertilizer - 4.0 - - - 4.0

Bag/tube size - 5.0 - - - 5.0

Root pruning - 3.6 - - - 3.6

Sub-total 23.3 21.0 - - - 44.3

Development of establishment and cultural techniques (allowing 10% for cullingand early replacement/l) (i.e. 750/acre a 8 x 8 ft spacing)

Ground preparation - 0.64 - - - 0.64Spacing/2 - 1.64 1.64 - - 3.28Altitudinal effects - 2.59 2.59 2.59 - 7.77Size of planting stock - - 0.64 - - 0.64

Fertilization - - 0.85 0.85 - 1.70Season of planting - - 0.85 0.85 - 1.70Weeding intensity - 0.42 0.42 - - 0.84

Sub-total - 5.29 6.99 4.29 - 16.57

Genetic trials (allowing 10% for culling and early replacement/l)

Species trials

Conifers, pulpwood - 2.55 2.55 2.55 - 7.65Hardwoods, firewood/pulpwood - 2.55 2.55 2.55 - 7.65Hardwoods, firewood/fodder - 1.91 1.91 1.91 - 5.73

Provenance trials

P. roxburghii - 2.12 2.12 2.12 - 6.36E. camaldulensis - 2.12 2.12 2.12 - 6.36E. tereticornis - 1.27 1.27 1.27 - 3.81

Progeny trials

Estimating variances - 5.51 5.51 - - 11.02

Evaluating plus trees - 2.21 2.21 2.21 - 6.63Selection plantings - - - - 18.75 18.75

Sub-total - 20.24 20.24 14.73 18.75 73.96

AMEXl 2&Mfe!ndix 8

YEAR1 2 3 4 5 Total

Pilot plantations (allowing 10% for culling and early replacement)

Chir pine 75.00 150.00 300.00 600.00 1200.00 2325.00Hardwoods 37.50 75.00 150.00 300.00 600.00 1162.50

Sub-total 112.50 225.00 450.00 900.00 1800.00 3487.50

TOTAL 135.80 271.53 477.23 919.02 1818.75 3622.33

Sub-station

Development of nursery techniques

Soil mixture - 4.8 - - - 4.8Sand fraction - 4.8 - - - 4.8NPK fertilizer - 8.1 - - - 8.1Repeated fertilizer - - 4.0 - - 4.0Bag/tube size - - 5.0 - - 5.0Root pruning - - - 3.6 - 3.6

Sub-total - 17.7 9.0 3.6 - 30.3

Development of establishment and cultural techniques (allowing 10% for cullingand early replacement /1)

Season of planting - - 1.43 - - 1.43Size of planting stock - - 0.42 - - 0.42Fertilization - - 0.85 - - 0.85

Sub-total - - 2.70 - - 2.70

Genetic trials (allowing 10% for culling and early replacement /1)

Species trials

Conifers, pulpwood - - 1.70 - - 1.70Hardwoods, firewood/pulpwood - - - 1.70 - 1.70Hardwoods, firewood/fodder - - - - 1.06 1.06

Provenance trials

P. roxburghii - - 1.76 - - 1.76

Progeny trials

Evaluation of plus trees - - - 3.31 - 3.31Selection plantings - - - - 3.75 3.75

Sub-total - - 3.46 5.01 4.81 13.28

TOTAL - 17.7 15.16 8.61 4.81 46.28

ANNEX 2MlD =enix 8Page 3

/1 There is always controversy about beating-up in genetics trials; separateanalysis can be undertaken for original plants and replacements but this israrely warranted.

/2 Average spacing 7 x 7 ft with 889 plants per acre.

Ame 9Page I

Annual phasing of planting program (acres)

YEAR1 2 3 4 5 Total

Main centre

Establishment and cultural techniques

Ground preparation - 0.85 - - - 0.85Spacing - 1.84 1.84 - - 3.68Altitudinal effects - 3.45 3.45 3.45 - 10.35

Size of planting stock - - 0.85 - - 0.85Fertilization - - 1.13 1.13 - 2.26Season of planting - - 1.27 1.27 - 2.54Weeding intensity - 0.56 0.56 - - 1.12

Sub-total - 6.70 10.10 5.85 - 21.65

Genetic trials

Species trialsConifers, pulpwood - 3.40 3.40 3.40 - 10.20Hardwoods, firewood/pulpwood - 3.40 3.40 3.40 - 10.20Hardwoods, firewood/fodder - 2.54 2.54 2.54 - 7.62

Provenance trialsP. roxburghii - 2.82 2.82 2.82 - 8.46E. camaldulensis - 2.82 2.82 2.82 - 8.46E. tereticornis - 1.69 1.69 1.69 - 5.07

Progeny trialsEstimating variances - 7.35 7.35 - - 14.70Evaluating plus trees - 2.94 2.94 2.94 - 8.82Selection plantings - - - - 25.00 25.00

Sub-total - 26.96 26.96 19.61 25.00 98.53

Pilot plantations

Chir pine 100.00 200.00 400.00 800.00 1600.00 3100.00Hardwoods 50.00 100.00 200.00 400.00 800.00 1550.00

Sub-total 150.00 300.00 600.00 1200.00 2400.00 4650.00

Sub-station

Establishment and cultural techniques

Season of planting - - 1.90 - - 1.90Size of planting stock - - 0.56 - - 0.56Fertilization - - 1.13 - - 1.13

Sub-total 3.59 3.59

ANNR 2Appendix 9Page 2

YEAR1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL

Genetic trials

Species trialsConifers, pulpwood - - 2.26 - - 2.26Hardwoods, firewood/pulpwood - - - 2.26 - 2.26Hardwoods, firewood/fodder - - - - 1.41 1.41

Provenance trialsP. roxburghii - - 2.35 - - 2.35

Progeny trialsEvaluation of plus trees - - - 4.41 - 4.41Selection plantings - - - - 5.00 5.00

Sub-total - - 4.61 6.67 6.41 17.69

TOTAL (both stations) 150.00 333.36 645.26 1232.13 2431.41 4792.46

Page ISummary of annual planting and nursery programs

YEAR1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL

Planting (acres)

Main centre

Establishment techniques 6.70 10.10 5.85 21.65Genetic trials 26.96 26.96 19.61 25.00 98.53Pilot plantations 150.00 300.00 600.00 1200.00 2400.00 4650.00

Sub-total 150.00 333.66 637.06 1225.46 2425.00 4770.18

Sub-station

Establishment techniques 3.59 3.59Genetic trials 4.61 6.67 6.41 17.69

Sub-total 8.20 6.67 6.41 21.28

TOTAL 150.00 333.66 645.26 1232.13 2431.41 4792.46

(Rounded up 150 350 650 1250 2450 4850

Nursery plant requirements (000)

Main centre

Nursery techniques 23.30 21.00 44.30Establisbmer.t techniques 5.29 6.99 4.29 16.57Genetic trials 20.24 20.24 14.73 18.75 73.96Pilot plantations 112.50 225.00 450.00 900.00 1800.00 348.7.50

Sub-total 135.80 271.53 477.23 919.02 1818.75 3622.33

Sub-station

Nursery techniques 17.70 9.00 3.60 30.30Establishment 2.70 2.70Genetic trials 3.46 5.01 4.81 13.28

Sub-total 17.70 15.16 8.61 4.81 46.28

TOTAL (both stations) 135.80 289.23 492.39 927.63 1823.56 3668.61

(Rounded up )L0 290 500 950 1900 3780 )

APDendix IPage 1

Local and scientific names for selected tree species

Babul Acacia arabicaBahan Populus euphraticaBlue pine (biar, kail) Pinus wallichianaChir pine Pinus roxburghiiDeodar (paludur) Cedrus deodaraHorsechestnut (bankhor) Aesculus indicaKail (blue pine) Pinus wallichianaMesquite Prosopis juliflora, P. glandulosaNeem Azadirachita indicaOlive Olea cuspidataPhulai Acacia modestaPoplar Populus alba, P. ciliata, P. euamericana,

P. nigraSemul (simal) Salmalia malabaricaShisham Dalbergia sissooSilver fir Abies pindrowSoap nut Sapindus mukorossSpruce Picea smithianaTamarix Tamarix aphyllaWalnut (akhrot) Juglans regiaWattle Acacia mearnsii, A. mollissima

ANNEX 3Page 1

PAKISTAN


Training and Fellowships

Plantations Development

1. A critical aspect of plantations establishment is the rapiddevelopment of improved and economic techniques for nursery and plantationmanagement, followed by dissemination of knowledge to commercial plantationstaff. To achieve these objectives, in the 5-year project proposed above,provision would be made for the services of an internationally recruitedspecialist in nursery and plantation technology. The specialist would beemployed for the first three years of the project, and could be re-employedon a 1-month consultancy basis for-continuing advice in the last two years ofthe project. A job description for this specialist post is included inAppendix 1.

2. The plantation specialist would assist the project director inarranging training fellowships for himself (the project director), the assistantproject director and the nursery range officer. These should include two2-month visits to on-going plantation projects particularly in east, centraland southern Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Madagascar and possiblySouth Africa, Swaziland or Rhodesia) and may include Turkey or India. The assistantproject directorwould study all aspects of nursery and plantation organizationand management; the nursery range officer would spend one visit working in alloperations in a commercial scale nursery and the second visiting several nurseries;the project director would study the integration of forestry and forestindustries development.

Other Activities

3. In addition to the inventory specialist discussed in Appendix 1.provision is made for one month of specialist forestry consultancy in each of thelast three years of the project with flexibility for subjects (e.g., soils,entomology, genetics, pathology, seed technology or general management), as needarises. The project manager would arrange these consultancies in collaborationwith the PFI taking account of any special problems being encountered in thetechnical support of the project being provided by PFI.

4. The project itself would provide technical advice to the small forestrycomponent in the proposed hill farming technical development project by makingavailable information on technical developments and providing short in-servicetraining in nursery and planting techniques, funds for which would be providedfor in the hill farming project.

5. Estimated costs of training and fellowships are PRs 1.9 million and aredetailed on Table 2 of the main report.


PAKISTAN


Job Description and Qualificitions

Forestry Specialist

General

1. The project aims at developing improved technologies in reforestationthrough a series of nursery, establishment techniques, and genetic trials; and,prepare a basis for large scale integrated forestry and forest industry projectsby financing site assessment and inventory work, pilot plantations, a forestindustries feasibility study, pulping tests, a task force to determine effectivemethods of optimizing private "Guzara" forest owner participation, and specialisttraining. The forestry specialist would supervise the nursery, establishmenttechniques and genetic trials, pilot plantations, and assist the project directorin coordinating the other activities and follow-up project activities.

Specific Duties

2. (a) Initially set up the central nursery; assist with the selection,ordering and installation of equipment; nursery layout,irrigation system and supply of inputs;

(b) assist the project director to draw up detailed work program fortrials and pilot plantations and select suitable areas for these;

(c) development of nursery and field cultural techniques for researchtrials and pilot plantations, including in-service staff trainingand assembly of unit costs of nursery and plantation operations;

(d) assist the project director with the selection of staff foroverseas training and arrangements for itineraries;

(e) design, assessment and statistical analysis of nursery andfield research, and in cooperation with Pakistan ForestInstitute, conduct genetic research and development,including species and provenance trials, selection of seedstands and plus trees, creation of seed orchards, improvedseed handling, and the design and analysis of progenytrials;

(f) assist the project director in selection of consultants in siteassessment, genetics, pathology and other specializations asrequired;

(g) assist the project director in coordinating the other activitiesof the project and with the preparation of a follow-up project.


Reporting

3. The forestry specialist will be responsible to and subject to thedirection of the project director and will render to him such reports, plans,discussion papers and financial estimates as he, the project manager, mayrequire.

Qualifications

4. (a) Technical Qualifications.

(i) age preferably between 35 and 50 years;

(ii) a degree in forestry (or equivalent) with pre or post graduatetraining in research method and its application to establishmentand genetic trials;

(iii) at least five years experience in forest plantations establishment,preferably in upland areas of high rainfall intensity, including:

. practical use of site assessment systems for plantations planning;

. nursery management for plantations programs, especially pine species;

. designing plantations lay-out, including firebreaks and roads;

. preparing planting schedules and defining techniques to be followed;

. methods of nursery and plantations research, species and provenancetrials, and genetic improvement;

. assembly of data on yields, input requirements and costs, for thevarious activities described; and,

. co-ordination of work program with other agencies concerned with landdevelopment.

(b) General Qualifications.

(i) Candidates must be in good health;

(ii) Candidates must have demonstrated ability to form sound judgmentsand to work independently on their own initiative;

(iii) Candidates must be proficient in the English language; and,

(iv) because activities will be largely directed with the objective ofsecuring active support of small-farmer forest owners, (Guzara forestowners), in a follow-up reforestation program, a pre-disposition tothis aspect of the work will be needed and practical experience inthis field would be an added advantage.

ANNEX 4

Page 1

PAKISTAN


Guzara Forest Owners Task Force

Background

1. The total designated forest land area in Hazara district is about1.25.. acres, of ihich about I m. acres is privately owned land known as"Guzara". A large proportion of the Guzara land is marginal hill areaswithout tree cover and used mainly for grass fodder production and grazing.The Guzara land is partly privately owned and partly comunally owned"Shamlat" land. In both ownership patterns holdings are relatively small,averaging about four to five acres/family. Within the project area, some50% (30,000 acres) of the existing Chir pine forests are Ouzara and thegross area of 90,000 acres for new plantations establishment is entirelyGuzara. Developing a positive approach to forestry production and manage-ment among the Guzara owners is therefore crucial to the launching of theproposed intensive forestry and forest industries development.

2. The flrst forest conservancy rules for Hazara district were enactedin 1857, followed in 1872-73 by the first regular boundary settlement whichestablished Reserved Forests vested in the government and Guzara forests,which were recognized as privately owned lands and were declared forconservancy primarily to ensure the requirements of owners and otherrightholders for timber, firewood, grass-cutting and grazing. Governmentdeclared the right to conservancy management and a share in the proceeds ofany sales. Further legislation in 1879 gave power to government to demarcatethe Guzara forests and by 18846 some 150,000 acres has been demarcated. Therefonlowed some disputes regarding the procedure and in 1894, the originaldemarcations were upheld and two types of Guzara forests recognized; demarcatedforests in which new land could not be broken and undemarcated forests in whichnew land could be broken for cultivation. Both types continued to be subjectto control of tree felling. The second boundary settlement in l904/5 sawsmall adjustments to the boundaries and these were again reviewed in the thirdsettlement in 3935/6. All Guzara land, both demarcated and undemarcated onthe ground, is recorded in the Land Revenue Maps known as Latha (1" = 220').The Hazara Forest Act, 1936 codified the regulations for Guzara forestmanagement.

3. Up until 1950, executive management of the Guzara forests vestedin the Deputy Commissioner, with the Forest Department (FD) performing thefunction of technical managers, supervising the selection of trees forfelling for private use and commercial sales on the basis of conservancycontrol. IUnder the Hazara Management of Waste Iand Rules, 1950, executivemanagement was transferred to the FD. Since then, some 1O0,000 acres ofundemarcated Guzara have demarcated on the ground and 30-year workingmanagement plans prepared for the more richly forested areas.

ANNEX 4Page 2

4. In the procedure for commercial exploitation of the Guzara forests,the FD select the trees to be felled, authorize the contractors to carry outthe felling operations and receive full payment for the sales. At the timeof marking for felling the local Patwaril/records the names of the ownerson the felling schedules. Upon payment for the trees by the contractor,FD deduct 20% of the sale proceeds and forward the balance to the DeputyCommissioner, together with the felling schedules. This 80% of sale proceedsis then sent to the Tehsil office for payment to the beneficiary owners,some of whom reside up to 40 miles distance from the Tehsil office. Theprocedure results in long delays from time of sale to payment of owner;with as long as four years elapsing between the two transactions and commonlya delay of up to one year. Moreover, under the present management system,which relies upon natural regeneration to sustain 120-year rotation productionof saw-timber, the quantity of timber marketed, per unit area of forest isvery low and the interval between fellings of some 30 years, is excessively2ong. These are some of the principal reasons why Guzara owners are dis-enchanted with the present management system, which provide little realincome and no incentive to develop commercial forestry activities. Thepresent pause in forest exploitation caused by the cessation of privatecontractorst operations and failure to implement an alternative harvestingsystem is further aggravating relationships between the private forest ownersand FD.

5. Use of the Guzara forests to supply the domestic needs of ownersand other rightholders is contro]led by FD', see para. 2 above, under theGuzara Rules of 1950, attached as Exhibit A. The administration of theserules is a major task occupying a significant proportion of the workload ofFD staff and gives rise, together with infringements of commercial fellingregulations, to numerous legal confrontations between FD and owners/right-holders. In 1974, there were some 58,000 outstanding cases, equal to about20% of owners and rightholders, of breaches of forest rules in Hazara district.This demonstrates the need for a review of the present arrangements.

Approach to increased Guzara forest owner participation and productivity

6. All agencies at all levels of Government are well aware of themagnitude of the social problems that will accompany major forestry andforest industries development in the Hazara region. The Guzara forestowners presently exercise a land-use pattern which emphasizes grazing andfodder production rather than tree growth, which stems primarily from thehistorical approach to Guzara forest management discussed above. It isinevitable that the conversion of more land to forest use, and a change tointensive and concentrated forest management will introduce conflicts betweenthe local people and those charged with administering the forestry and forestindustry programs unless careful consideration is given to these problems.

I/ Official representative of Revenue Officer.

nANNE 4Page 3

7. However, these changes will enhance the opportunities for revenuegeneration on privately owned land which is currently under-utilized, andalso bring employment potential in the forestry and industriai operations.Under well managed plantations, timber yields of over 100 ft. /acre/yearare expected, compared with present average yields of less than 10 ft.'/acre/year. Considerable orientation and motivation will be necessary from thebeginning to ensure that the local population is prepared and able to takeadvantage of these opportunities.

8. During the course of the proposed Forestry Pre-investmentproject relatively small land areas will be involved, and there should berelatively little disturbance to traditional land-use patterns. It isessential that this period be effectively utilized to develop the necessaryinstitutions and secure the participation of the local population beforethe commencement of large-scale planting operations in about 19800

9. A provincial inter-departmental group with operating funds providedby the Sarhad Development Authority has already initiated some studies inthis field. The group is represented by the FD, Department of Cooperativesand the Economics Section of the University of NWFP, Peshawar and expectsto complete a preliminary report by June, 1977. Aspects being studiedinclude :

( i) the collection of base data of areas, numbers offorest owners and rightholders;

( ii) assessment of the present operation of the forestrules and possible improvement to these;

(iii) assessment of the existing land tenure system andits implications for successful tree growingprogram;

( iv) preliminary assessment of the economic returns fromexisting uses of the land considered suitable fortree growth vis-a-vis the proposed use of land underforestry;

( v) attitudes of the local population towards the chang-ing land-use and the working through cooperativesocieties or through the Forest Department or themill;

( vi) collection of bench mark data on present income andincome sources and, demographic information on laborforce/earning member per family and their levels ofemployment, existing credit/subsidies facilities forland management activities, estimation of levels ofthe existing land-use technologies, and availablesocial institutions and characteristics for trans-mission and adoption of innovations;

Page 4

(vii) possibility of acquiring land for plantationsdevelopment by rental, compensation payments,cash-wage payments to forest owners forplantations development and maintenQz}ce work,or a combination of these incomes; ,(

(viii) possibility of forming Guzara forest owner"cooperatives". The possibility of "co-operatives" is being seriously pursued andapplications for registration are presentlybeing prepared for seven societies. It isenvisaged that the societies would be affiliatedto a Hazara Cooperative Board which would providetechnical and management services to individualsocieties and be the coordinating agency foroverall management of the forests;

( ix) possible projection of the socio-economic changeson account of the envisaged program;

( x) assessment of the development support communicationactivities needed to ensure public and privatesupport and development program and formulationof the needed extension program on the basis ofthe socio-economic information collected in theforegoing study.

10. These various alternatives will require further study and developmentin order to work out satisfactory management arrangements and it is proposedthat additional funds be made available from the proposed credit.

Project Activities

11. It is appropriate that the necessary studies and preparation offirm recommendations on which GONWFP can take decisions be undertakenprimarily by a task force composed of qualified and dedicated people fromwithin existing government institutions. Approaches must be developed on aflexible basis, responding to the expressed and observed reactions of thepeople concerned. The following notes are a guide towards achieving thedesired objectives, and provide a basis for defining the scope of activityin this field. Detailed Terms of Reference for internal activities and anyproposed external inputs to this effort would be prepared by the Departmentof Forestry with assistance from GONWFP and other relevant organizations.

12. The task force would be appointed by the Project DevelopmentCommittee and consist of a forest officer familiar with Guzara forestadministration and capable of conducting extension work; an economistwith knowledge of the customs of the Hazara people, or similar forest

L/ This is discussed in General Directorate Bulletin No.9, PFI-1976, pp.15-17.

ANNEX 4Pa ge 5

dwellers and competent in evaluating alternative land uses; a sociologistwith know]edge of the customs of Hazara people and experienced in conductingsurveys and interpreting current attitudes to existing customs andregulations and responses to proposed changes; and a cooperative specialistknowledgeable in the formation of new community enterprises. A task forcemember wou]d be appointed as team leader, who, in consultation with theproject director, would prepare a detailed work program for the team.Provision is included for employing the services of an internationallyrecruited sociologist to assist the team, as necessary, in compilationand assessment of base data, developing a strategy, evaluating resultsof studies and preparing action recommendations. In addition, the teamwould be supported by an agronomist and a livestock development specialistto evaluate and prepare proposals for complementary developments in farmingsystems and range management. It is expected these two specialists wouldbe seconded to the team by the rnWFP Department of Agriculture and/or theAgricultural Research Council.

13. Initially the task force would collect and present additions]relevant data for the proposed development area including :

( i) family structure of the target population; feltneeds; traditional social institutions;

( ii) educationa) background; employment patterns;assessment of employment potential;

(iii) forest land holdings; forest concessions, includ-ing those of rightholders; traditional patternsof forest use and forest usufruct;

( iv) attitudes to possible changes in forest land useand forest usufruct;

( v) agricultural holdings and proportion of familyincome derived from holdings;

( vi) numbers of livestock and grazing requirements,including an assessment of fodder and grazing inforest lands and rangelands used by the targetpopulation.

(vii) evaluation of present land use patterns in termsof manpower requirements and money costs; construct-ion of models of alternative land use under forestryproduction and comparison of these with presentland use patterns;

(viii) present taxation (fees) on forest production;

( ix) present systems of payments for forest productionto beneficiary Guzara owners;

( x) chains of communication between individuals, groupsand government agencies.

34. Based on this information, proposals would be prepared (see alsopara. 27) for integrating the local population in the development program,including :

ANNEX 4Page 6

( i) new institutions considered necessary; such asforest extension service; forestry publicity;"forestry cooperatives";

( ii) forestry training schemes;

(iii) comp)ementary agricultural improvements, particularlyin fodder production; assessment of possibilities forimproved fodder production; proposals for technical packagedevelopment, extension, input supply and credit to developrange lands pari passu with the proposed forest plantationsdevelopment;

C iv) apportionment of areas for commercial forestry, localforestry and agriculture, including grazing;

( v) arrangements for financing forestry, including the advance-ment of credit for tree growing and payments for woodharvested or for land use and the possibility of advancepayments to owners against future tree crops;

( vi) modification to existing forest rules, including presentleve3s of taxes and administrative charges;

(vii) a phased program for the implementation of these proposals;

1$. The responses of the target population to the various projectproposals and different approaches would be accurately measured and recordedto indicate the weighting given by these groups.

16. The task force would consider and make recommendations on

( i) methodology for expJaining to the target populationthe new strategies to be developed as the projectprogresses;

( ii) method of implementation of development activitiesand work program, including, for example, the roleof "forestry cooperatives"; function of vi3lageleaders.

17. The task force would prepare three-monthly progress reports forthe project development Committee and receive guidance from the Committee,and other relevant institutions as the Committee may direct, in the conductof their work. Intermediate consultation between the task force and theProject Development Committee would be essential to ensure that the taskforce work is proceeding along lines acceptable to government and thatspecific proposals for approval by GCNWFP resulting from the work have thefull support of the Project Development Committee.

18. The estimated costs for the task force are PRs. 660,000 and aredetailed in Tab)e 2 of the main report. Provision is made for employmentof 60 man-months of the Pakistan specialists discussed, two study toursby team members to review arrangements in other countries which have developedworkable solutions to similar problems, six months of outside consul tancy servicesand field and office expenses including clerical staff. Draft terms of referencefor the internationally recruited consultant and contained in Appendix 1. It isexpected that the costs of the agronomist and livestock devel opmnt specialist wouldbe met from the regular budgets of their department although cont&ngency Linano nghas been included to cover their costs if this is needed.

AMNEX hAppendix 2Page 1

PAKIS TAN


Guzara Forest Owners' Task Force

Consultant Sociologist : Draft Job Description and Terms of Reference

Background

1. The project aims to prepare a base over the next two to threeyears to implement an integrated forestry and forest industries developmentprogram in the Chir pine zone of Hazara district. Within the project area,some 58,o0o acres of existing natural Chir pine forests would form thenucleus resource base. About 30,000 acres of these forests are private"Guzara" forests, partly privately and partly communally owned but managedby the Forest Department under legislations dating back 100 years. Inaddition to the forested areas, there is some 90,000 acres of treelessGuzara land presently used for fodder gathering and rough grazing. It isproposed to reforest about 28,000 acres of these former forest lands aspart of the development program. The Government financed in 1976/77 apreliminary study to evaluate the pattern of forest holdings, which averages somefour to five acres per family, and investigate alternative methods to secureGuzara owner participation in reforestation. The project would finance anexpansion of the study to a task force, including a forest officer, economist,sociologist and cooperative specialist, and provides for six months consultancyservices of an internationally recruited sociologist or social anthropologistto assist the task force. The task force would be responsible for preparingfor Government approval an action plan for achieving a workable system throughwhich Guzara owners would participate in the development program.

Job Description

2. The main responsibilities of the sociologist would be :

(a) to provide scientific/methodological assistance in designingthe quantitative and qualitative studies of the Guzaraforest owners and other forest users, in line with theProject's objectives;

(b) to carry out the specific tasks discussed below and adviseon the direction of the work of the task force;

(c) to participate in the interpretation of the team's findingsand to work out the social engineering part of the project'soverall strategy; and,

(d) to provide in-service training to the task force sociologist.

ANNEX 4Appendix IPage 2

3. The consultant's six months assignment would be divided in threetime-sequences of two, one and three months respectively, so as to ensurehis presence in the critical periods of the task force's work. During hiswork in Pakistan, the consultant will be stationed in Hazara district.

4. The consultant would prepare a comprehensive analytical reporton his work which could be incorporated in the task force's findings. Thereport should cover the research questions defined in his Terms of Referenceand include a description of the social methodology for securing the positiveparticipation of the target population in the development program. Theconsultant would report directly to the Project Director, submitting a copyo2 his reports to IDA.

Terms of Reference

5. The consultant will assess the socio-economic information collectedby the preliminary Study Team and will determine the need of further relevantdata in view of the Project's objectives. In close cooperation with theeconomist and the sociologist of the task force, he will design the approachand the research procedures for the study of the project area population.More particularly, the consultant will assist the force:

(a) to assess the demographic and socio-cultural structure ofthe group of Guzara Forest Owners (size, density, settle-ment patterns, family and kinship patterns, occupations,ethnic, tribal and other relevant groups residing in theproject area);

(b) to identify the prevailing customary Guzara lan&dholdingrights, as well as formal legal rights, on the grazing,forestry and arable lands; to detenmine the productionand usufruct patterns, share cropping patterns and thetransmittal of ownership or usufruct rights along familyand/or tribal lines, through informal and formal inheritancerules. This information would form the basis to assessthe economic and cultural acceptability of the changespromoted through the project in the existing ownership,production and usufruct systems;

(c) to study the traditional authority and power structurein the project area and the customary self-managementinstitutions and bodies (e.g., village elders, headmen);based on this analysis, to evaluate the authority mechanisms forforest owners' participation in forestry development and forenforcing existing, and any proposed, rules of forestrymanagement; particular attention should be given to theaccepted systems of dispute/conflict settlement and methodsof community sanction;

AKNNEX 4APpendix ]Page 3

(d) to study the income sources and the subsistence needs

of the typical social unit in the project area and to

estimate the economic impact of the conversion of more

land to intensive forest use; e.g., can the target

group afford the immediate loss of some immediate

benefits in exchange for 3ong-term benefits from forestry?

what incentives or provisions would be needed to meet this

possible interim deficit?

(e) to work out an appropriate strategy for "socia2 extension",

by which the Project Management would explain the project

and the implementation procedure to the area population.

For this purpose the consultant would help to organize

experimental commmunity meetings and carry out consultations

with informal and formal leaders, so as to establish a

pattern for the task force's work, which could later be

embodied in the management structure for the subsequent program;

(f) in the last sequence of his work, the consultant would

devote part of his time to a series of training sessions

with the project staff, to impart the findings of the

studies made and convey the recomtended techniques for

the project's social extension methodology.

Qua] ifications

6. The consultant would be a sociologist or social anthropologist

preferably with a Ph.D or M.A. degree, with field experience in studying

forestry population. Experience in Pakistan or a country with a similar

social structure would be an advantage. Preference would be given to

a consultant with an applied/operational orientation and a keen interest

in development work, particularly in enhancing the productive capability

of the forestry zone population.

ANNEX 5Page 1

PAKISTAN


Draft Terms of Reference for Feasibility Study

I. OBJECTIVES AND BACKGROUND

1. The Governments of Pakistan and the North West Frontier Provinceare proposing a forestry and forest industry development program in theHazara district, in the vicinity of the town of Mansehra. The forestryprogram will result in the clear-felling of existing stands of Chir pine,replacing them with pine and hardwood plantations, and the establishmentof plantations on "waste lands" which do not presently have a forestcover. The industrial program envisaged would result in the setting upof a pulp and paper mill to utilize the fiber resources generated by theseforestry operations.

2. To assist in the development of this program, an IDA credit isproposed to finance the necessary preparation work including an inventoryof the existing forest, a site assessment for plantation establishmentpurposes, the development of plantation techniques, and a socio-economicstudy to examine the impact of the proposed program on the private forestowners and local residents and to develop mechanisms for ensuring theirparticipation in the project. The IDA credit would also finance an industrialfeasibility study to determine an appropriate development strategy and toevaluate its technical and economic feasibility. Preliminary detailed termsof reference for this study are contained in the following chapters.

3. A two-phase study is proposed. In the first phase (Section I to VIbelow),all of the necessary information concerning the resource base, markets,the existing industry and the socio-economic impact of any proposed pulp and paperdevelopment would be collected, evaluated and compiled in a series of interimreports. This information would then be used by the consultant to formulateone or more development programs for the Hazara region. At that stage, adetailed review of the consultant's proposals would be conducted, involvingall of the concerned Federal and Provincial agencies, together with representa-tives of any organizations who may be considering participating in, orproviding finance for, the proposed venture. The purpose of this reviewwould be to agree on a project concept for final detailed analysis and thetiming of the second phase of the study. The second phase of the study wouldentail a detailed feasibility study of the proposed project, presented ina form acceptable to likely financing agencies so that an immediate investmentdecision woulc be made, (see Section VII).

AN=5Page 2

II. REsOURC Bsz

A., General Outline

4. Fiber resource infomnation to be collected by the consultant wouldbe of two types:

(i) a general review of all fiber resources in thecountry which could be suitable for papermaking, in order to be able to assess thelike)y directions of future developments inthe pulp and paper sector, and

(ii) a specific and detailed analysis of the existingand potential EIazara resource base in order toprovide a sound basis for planning the Hazaradevelopment.

B. Overall Resource Base

5. Collect and assess pertinent information relating to the currentuse and projected future availability of :

(i) waste paper;

(ii) wheat straw;

(iii) rice straw;

(iv) grass;

(v) bagasse;

(vi) cotton linters; and

(vii) wood.

This information should be developed in a manner suitable for use in anassessment of the future growth prospects of the Pakistan pulp and paperindustry (Para.31).

C. The Hazara Resource

ProJect Area

6. Review and evaluate available information concerning the projectarea and prepare a detailed statement of land area by vegetation cover and

Page 3

land ownership. Delineate and define those areas to bs excluded fromcomaerciaJ exploitation because of topography, erosion control ox othErfactors.

7. Assess the land-needs of the Hazara populace for rnon-forestryuses (e.g.: crops, grain production, and grazing) and therebiy determinethe net areas of land likely to be avai.lable for forestry development.

8. Review the status of studies and negotiations aizmed at securingthe oooperation of the owners of private forest land (with and withouttree cover). Discuss the form of likely agreements, and determine thefinancial implications of any such agreements, including:

(i) likely royalties to be paid to forest-land ownersfor existing timber; and

(ii) the mechanism for reimbursing private land-ownersfor establishing pulpwood plantations on theirland.

Existing Forest Resource

9. Review and evaluate available information concening the existingforest resource and prepare a detailed statement of wood availability byspecies, log class, and land ownership. Conduct any necessary field checksto verify this data.

lo. Assess the timber needs of the Hazara populace and the productionof industrial timber for present markets. Thereby determine the net volumeof timber likeJy to be available for industrial usage. Also assess thepresent production of resin from chir pine, and take account of the effectson the resin industry of changes proposed in forest management in connectionwith the formulation of industrial proposals. This assessment should considerthe possibility of resin extraction in a proposed mill.

11. Review current and alternative timber extraction and transportationmethods and in conjunction with local authorities, propose methods suitablefor intensive and large-scale operations.

12. Prepare estimates of the capital investments required for roadconstruction, logging and transportation equipment, and of the cost oflogging and transport operations. Develop estimates of the cost ofsecuring, harvesting and delivering wood from the existing forests toa possible pulp mill site.

Plantation Potential

13. Review and evaluate the program of research trials and pilotplantations which are currently in the initiation stage. Ch the basis-of this and any other available information, determine:

ANNEX Page 4

(i) the potential suitability of indigenous and exoticspecies for reforestation; and

(ii) a realistically attainable planting program,giving due regard to any physical constraintswhich may exist;

(iii) probable rotation ages; and

(iv) likely attainable annual growth increments.

14. Compile the preceding data in sufficient detail to enable developmentplanning to proceed on the basis of a realistic assessment of the futureavailability of plantation pulpwood.

15. Review and comment on projected plantation establishment costs.Determine the "stumpage" which would have to be paid at the time of harvestingp]antation wood in order to fully recover plantation establishment costs,and to reimburse land-owners in an equitable and agreed upon manner for theuse of their land.

16. Review proposed methods of extraction and transportation frompulpwood plantations and prepare estimates of the cost of harvesting anddelivering plantation pulpwood to a possible pulp mi.l site.

C. Interim Resource Potential Reports

17. Prepare and present the information concerning the overall pulpand paper-making fibre resource potential of the country in such a way asto facilitate the evaluation of projected expansion and new constructionplans of the existing pulp and paper industry (para. 29).

III, MARKEIS

A. General Outline

18. Market studies should be designed to provide :

(i) Past, current and projected future domestic consumptionfigures broken down into major grade categories;

(ii) specification applicable to those grades, including anylimitations as to the suitability of fiber-types fortheir production; and

(iii) the prices currently prevailing in the market, a reviewof price influencing factors, and an assessment oflikely future price movements.

B. Consumption Data

19. Using Pakistan import statistics, export statistics from prodlucing

ANNU -5Page )

countries, production data from existing miliis, consumption data from majorconsumers, and any other information which may be available, developestimates of past and current consumption of pulp and paper by majorgrade categories.

20. Assess the factors which will influence fu:ture pulp and peperconsumption, including:

(i) population growth and general economic expansion;

(ii) expansion of specific pulp and paper consumingindustries;

(iii) changing consumption patterns;

(iv) the effect of possible increased domestic supplies;

(v) tariffs and other Government policies which mayaffect import volumes;

21. On the basis of the preceding infonmation, prepare projectionscovering the likely range of future pulp and paper consugption.

C. Grade Specification

22. Collect and evaluate any available information concerningspecifications for important paper grade categories, as laid down byproducers, consumers and importers of these grades.

23. In conjunction with the review of the existing industry andits expansion plans (Paras. 29 - 31) 4etetaine which grades, if any,carry specifications which cannot be met using the traditional fibreresources of the country.

24. Using the projected consumption data developed above (Para. 21)identify and quantify the likely supply gaps in the pulp and paper sector.

Do Prices

25. Collect information concerning current and recent prices formajor grades of pulp and paper using records of the principal producersand consumers.

26- Analyze these prices in terms of their key components, including

() c.i.f. price for imported grades;

(ii) mill uorices for domestically produced grades;

(iii) any tariffs, duties, excise tax, or sales taxwhich may be applied to imported or domesticallyproduced grades;

(iv) unJoading charges, port charges and otherhand)ing charges as may be applicable; and

(v) freight charges from principal supply sourcesto principal consuming centers.

27. Discuss prices in terms of likely future trends including anassessment of the possible impact of :

(i) world pulp and paper prices;

(ii) the domestic production cost structure; and

(iii) Government pricing and taxation policies.

D. Interim Market Reports

28. Prepare a consolidated interim report presenting all of thematerial collected concerning pulp and paper markets in Pakistan, insuch a manner that it can be used to assist in formulating one or moreproject alternatives for evaluation (Para. 33).

IV. REVIEW CF EfT lSTNG INDuSTRY

A. General Outline

29. The Hazara resource is of particular value in Pakistan becauseIong-fibred pulp produced from pine has characteristics which cannot bematched by the non-wood fibres which have traditionally been used to makepaper and paperboard. The purpose of reviewing the existing industry istherefore to ensure that the proposed Hazara Project complements and doesnot compete with other potential pulp and paper mill developments in thecountry, and that optimum usage is made of the scarce 3ong-fibred resource.

B. Status of the Industry

30. By visiting each of the sixteen operating pulp and paper millsin the country, prepare a profile of the industry, including :

(i) Up-to-date capacity and recent production figures,by grade;

(ii) fibrous raw material sources and costs, including areview of any problems which may be encountered inprocurement;

(iii) normal market outlets, distribution channels andprices; and

ANNEX 5Page 7

(iv) an assessment of the profitability of the industry.

C. Plans and Potential for Expansion

31. Review with each company its expansion prospects, including anassessment of the availability of raw materials, market prospects, financialbacking and other factors. Also, review with appropriate Governmentorganizations any other plan for new capacity in the industry, therebyassess the likely growth in capacity of the pulp and paper industry inthe short and medium term future.

V. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

32. The active participation of private land-owners will be anessential element of any Hazara forestry development project. A separatestudy is being financed to assist in developing the necessary institutionsand securing the cooperation of the local population. As part of theFeasibility Study, the consultant will be required to analyze and reviewthe findings of the socio-economic study and to ensure that these arefully taken into account prior to final project formu]ation.

VI. PROJECT FORMUIATION

33. By combining the information described above concerning theresource base, markets, the existing industry and proposed expansion,and socio-economic factors, formulate one or more projects designed toutilize the Hazara resource. The projects proposed should be aimed atmeeting the needs for pulp and paper grades which are unlikely to beproduced elsewhere in the country. Prepare comparative statements ofcost and benefit for each alternative proposed.

34. At this stage, a detaiJed review of the work performed todate would be conducted. The review meetings would be attended bythe consultants, representatives of concerned Federal and Provincialagencies, and representatives of any organization who may be consideringparticipating in or providing finance for the proposed venture. Thepurpose of this review would be to agree on a project concept includingan implementation schedule for final detailed analysis.

VII. DETAILED FEASIBILITY STUDY

A. General Outline

35. Ilaving agreed on a project concept, prepare a detailed feasibilitystudy for it, to a standard acceptable to international financing agencies.

ANNEX 5Page 8

The feasibility study report would embody the principal findings of theinterim studies previously described and, in addition, would providedetailed information pertaining to :

(i) Site selection and site-related factors such assoil conditions, water supply, power supply,transportation of raw materials and products toand from the mill, and the requirement for anynew infrastructure to support the project;

(ii) process considerations, including an evaluation ofthe processes selected with specific reference tothe wood species involved and the proposed productmix and environmental aspects of the project;

(iii) capital investments required for plantationestablishment, logging operations, and industrialplants;

(iv) the annual cost of plantation operations, logging,and mill operations, during each stage of theproject's development;

(v) the financial anid economic rate of return of theproject.

B, Site and Site-Related Studies

36. Make a general survey of sites in the project area which appearto be suitable for the construction of pulp and paper manufacturing facilities.Include an assessment of :

(i) The geographical location with respect to theresource and existing transportation routes;

(ii) land availability with respect to ownership,cost of acquisition, zoning, etc.;

(iii) geological and foundation conditions and groundwater, fl ooding and earthquake characteristics;

(iv) the supply of suitable process water in termsof volume, reliability, and quality standards;

(v) the location and reliability of electric powersources and transmission lines, and the need toexpand or enlarge such services to supply plantrequirements;

ANNEX 5Page 9

(vi) the likely impact of eff3uent discharges, bothair and water borne;

(vii) location of communities in the area, as they mayprovide amenities for mill personnel, or influenceenvironmental considerations; and

(viii) the existence of, or possib]e future potential forany other development such as industrial, tourismor agriculture, which could have an effect on theproject.

37. After consideration of these and any other relevant aspects,select a site for the proposed pulp and paper mill.

C. Mill Description and Definition

38. On the basis of decisions reached regarding mill size, the rangeof products to be manufactured, and the processes to be employed, specifythe major process details and components required.

39. Prepare f ow sheets for a)l processes and operations, andpreliminary layouts and drawings for the proposed mill.

40. Assess the capability of local equipment manufacturers and indicatethe availability and cost of locally manufactured equipment components.Assess the requirements of plant and machinery which needs to be imported andindicate availability and cost.

D. Capital Cost Estimates

41. On the basis of the proposed design concepts, prepare detailedcapita] construction cost estimates. Estimates should be prepared in amanner which will permit the subsequent application of a "shadow pricing"method of economic analysis and should include the following cost categories :

(i) Land acquisition;

(ii) site preparation including clearing, grading andinstallation of services such as sewers, waterlines, power lines and roads;

(iii) structures, including material and erection costs;

(iv) equipment, including all charges incurred inpurchase and delivery, and labor costs forinstallation;

(v) design engineering and construction supervisioncosts; and

(vi) infrastructural costs such as town site.

Page 10

42. Prepare the above breakdown to show costs classified as follows :

(i) By major mill departments or functions;

(ii) by labor component and material component; and

(iii) by domestic currency cost and foreign currencycost.

43. Prepare estimates of the non-construction capital costs required tobring the mill into production, including :

(i) Financing charges and legal expenses;

(ii) inventories of spare parts;

(iii) recruitment and training costs;

(iv) start-up expense;

(v) interest during construction; and

(vi) working capital.

ES Manufacturing Cost Estimates

44. Collect all necessary field data and prepare detailed manufacturingcost estimates for the products to be manufactured. Estimates should bepresented in a manner which will permit the subsequent application of a "shadowpricing" method of economic analysis, and include :

(i) Raw material;

(ii) labor;

(iii) process chemicals and supplies;

(iv) power, fuel and water;

(v) maintenance materials;

(vi) administration and overhead costs; and

(vii) selling and delivery costs.

45. Include supporting schedules to show :

(i) Quantities and prices of process chemicals, andprocess supplies required;

(ii) labor manning tables and salary or wage ratesapplying; and

(iii) mill organization chart.

Page 11

F. Financial and Economic Analysis

46. On the basis of the estimated product mix, mill]-net sales prices,plant capital requirements and manufacturing cost estimates, prepare thefollowing statements :

(i) Earnings at various production levels;

(ii) working capital;

(iii) preparatory and opening-up expenses;

(iv) debt retirement and interest schedules;

(v) depreciation schedules;

(vi) projected profit and loss for a 25-year operatingperiod;

(vii) projected balance sheet; and

viii) projected cash flow for the period commencing withthe initial input of cash to the end of a 25-yearoperating life.

47. Evaluate the investment opportunity offered by the project, bypreparing and discussing :

(i) The internal rate of return;

(ii) a schedule of financial ratios, including interestcoverage, debt service, and current ratios; and

(iii) a sensitivity analysis showing the affects onproject returns of changes in key variables.

48. Examine the worth of the project to the economy of Pakistan, bypreparing and discussing :

(i) An analysis of the economic benefits to the country,using a "shadow pricing" technique;

(ii) the projected foreign exchange balance of the Project,including estimated foreign exchange savings; and

(iii) a review of any other quantifiable or non-quantifiablecosts or benefits to the economy to be expected as aresult of the project.

ANNEX 5Page 12

VIII. REPORTS

49. For the review and project formulation meeting described above(Para. 34), the consultant will prepare draft reports concerning:

(i) The resources base;

(ii) markets;

(iii) the existing industry;

(iv) socio-economic factors; and

(v) potential project alternatives.

At the completion of the study, the consultants wil] finalize theabove reports, and prepare a Project Feasibility Study which will embodytheir findings. This finsa report wiD also incorporate detailed capita) andmanufacturing cost estimates, and projected financial and economic rates ofreturn.

PAKISTAN


PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF COSTS

FOR FEASIBILITY STUDY('000 PRs)

Item Quantity Rate Amount(man-months) Local Foreign Total

Consultant's Professional Staff

Project Manager 12- Plantation Specialist 3- Forest Inventory Specialist 3- Logging Engineer 3 average- Industry Specialist 5 PRs 70,800 4,600 4,600- Market Analyst 5 per man-month- Cost Fngineers (2) 10 including- Financial Analyst 7 overheads- Process Engineer 5- Back-up & Supervision 12

Counterpart Staff

- Feasibility Study Coordinator 12 average- Industry Specialist 6 PRs 3,300- Merket Specialist 6 per man-month 90 - 90- Civil Fngineer 1/ 3 including overhead- Inventory Specia4sst- 6 -- General Forester;O 0- Clerical Servicesi/ -

Disbursements

- Travel and Expenses _ 350 400 750- Communications - 20 20 40- Beport Preparation - 20 90 110- Miscellaneous - 20 120 140Contingency (10%) - 50 520 570

Total 550 5,750 6,300

1/ It has been assumed that forestry and clerical counterpart staff would be available to assist inthe study at no cost to the project. Other counterpart staff would be recruited on short-termassignments from PIDC or from industry.

ANNEX 6Page 1

PAKISTAN


Organization and Management

Project Management

1. The project headquarters would be established at Mansehra. Theproject will be under the management of the Chief Conservator of Forestsas Project Director, who would be assisted by a fulltime assistant projectdirector of the rank of Senior DFO/Conservator. The Project Director wouldbe responsible for all forestry activities and, through the Secretaryfor Forests, to the Additional Chief Secretary, Planning and Development,for coordination of the work of the Guzara Forest Owners Task Force,pulping tests and feasibility study.

2. Inputs from a number of other agencies and advisers would berequired including :

(i) the Department of Industry, Commerce and Mining,NWFP, through its Sarhad Development authorityfor continuity of its present involvement inforestry development in Hazara, (see Annex 4);

(ii) the Forest Research Institute, Peshawar for allaspects of forest research and pulping tests,(see Annex 2);

(iii) the Pakistan Industrial Development Corporationfor the industrial feasibility study, (see Annex 5);

(iv) the Federal Inspector General of Forests fornational forest policy; and,

(v) the various consultants who will be retained aspart of the project, e.g., inventory and forestryspecialists and Guzara Task Force team member,(see Annexes 1, 2 and 4), and follow-up projectpreparation studies.

3. A Project Development Committee would be formed, composed of theAdditional Chief Secretary, P & D, NWFP as Chairman, the Inspector General ofForests, GOP, the Secretary for Forests, NWFP, the Secretary for Industry,NWFP, the Technical Director, Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation, andChief Conservator of Forests (Secretary). The committee would receive 3-monthly reports from the project director of project progress and givedirections to the project director for coordinating the various activities andinputs of the agencies discussed in para. 2.

ANNEX 6Page 2

4. The project directorwould set-up working relations with theinstitutions providing advisory and technical inputs, including PakistanForest Institute, Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation, Departmentof Industry, Commerce and Mining Development, NWFP, Sarhad Development

-.it3-oYity, Department of Cooperatives and University of Peshawar, andschedule timing of these specialist inputs to correlate with the timetableoC project activities (see Table 1 of main report). Funds for the paymentof these specialist services would be channelled through the project manager,except that special arrangements would be made for the feasibility study.He would also undertake the primary arrangements for engaging otherspecialist consultants and report progress to the Federal Inspector Generalof Forests.

5. The project director will also be assisted by a fulltime plantationsspecialist for the first three years (see Annex 3); an administrativeofficer (Grade 17); a site assessment section and an inventory section,the team leaders of which will be responsible to the project director.Other project staff would include three Range Forest Officers, six foresters andsupporting clerical and junior staff. The activities of the Guzara ForestOwners Task Force would be coordinated by the project director (see Annex 4)and the team leader of this group will make interim and final reports throughthe project director to the Project Development Committee.

6. Based on the various components of the project, the project groupwould comprise the staff and specialist services listed in Appendix 1. TheGONWFP would need to assign these staff from existing duties to the projectand, because of the importance of staff continuity in many of the technicaloperations, undertake that key staff would remain in post for the projectperiod.

Costs

7. The project would finance the construction of a headquarter's officeand store, three senior staff houses, two range forest officer houses, threeforester/forest guard hostels; the office/store and staff houses would beat Mansehra and junior staff hostels in the plantation areas; transport andoffice and field equipment; staff salaries and annual operating costs.Details of the physical requirements and costs are contained in Table 2 ofthe main report.

Follow-Up Project Preparation

8. By year-3 of the project, it is expected that sufficient plantationsexperience wi]ll have been gained, firm conclusions reached with respect toforest industries development, and, effective participation of Guzara Forestowners secured, to prepare follow-up large scale plantations and forestindustries projects. At this stage of the project, the project director,under the direction of the Project Development Committee, would take primary

ANNEX 6Page 3

responsibility for initiating and monitoring the work, including furtherstudies as may be needed, of follow-up project preparation. PRs. I millionis included in the project costs for this work Which would provide foradditional studies and an increase in project staff to assist in projectpreparation. Studies and other expenditure items exceeding PRs. 50,000(US$5,000) would require prior agreement with the Association.

Future Deve]opment

9. As a later development, it is possible that project activities wouldbe taken over by a newly formed Forest Industrial Development Corporation.The chart attached at Appendix 2 indicates how the initial linkages would bemaintained and a possible transition from the phase I technical developmentproject to a phase 2 full-scale plantations organization. A similar transitioncould be followed for the industrial development.

AEX 6

ARgSdi 1

Summary of Project Group staff and Specialist Services2I

Designation Recruited From Duration of kpointment

NurserZ and Plantations1 Project Director/Asst. Project

Director NWFP Forest Dept. 5 years1 Nursery and Plantations Specialist Internationally 3 yearsI Range Officer (Nursery) NWFP FD or P.F.I. 5 years1 Range Officer (Plantations) " 5 yearsI Range Officer (Genetics) 5 years

Other ftecialists Internationally 3 man-monthsOthr Specialisto P.F.I. 30

Site Survey and Inventory

I Survey Officer (ACF) NWFP FD or PFI 2 years1 Soil Chemist PFI ¼ time1 Iab. Technician n ½ n1 Draughtsman n½n1 Inventory Supervisor (ACF) Aerial Inventory or I year

P.F.I.5 Range Forest Officers n1 FD 12 Photo Interpreters n ½s time 1 nI Photo Mapping Specialist n 1 n2 Draughtsmen or p.F.I. I nI Inventory Specialist Internationally 3 to 12 months

Pulping Tests

1 Pulp Technoloogist PFI, PIDC or industry 6 months, initially

Ouzara Forest OFners Task Force

I Forest Officer (ACF) NWFP, FD 1½ yearsI Sociologist ) Universities, Other 'f n1 Economist ) Government Agencies or 1 n3 Cooneratives Specialist ) private sector 1 n1 Sociologist Internationally 6

Industrial Feasibility Study

I Industry Specialist PIDC or industry 6 months1 Market Specialist PIDC or industry 6 months1 Civil Engineer PIDC or industry 6 monthsI Project Manager ) 12 monthsI Plantation Specialist ) 3 months1 Forest Inventory Specialist ) 3 months1 Oggng Engineer ) 3 months1 Industry Specialist ) Internationally 5 monthsI Markot Analyst ) recruited consultancy 5 months2 Cost Engineers ) 20 man-monthsI Financial Analys ) 7 monthsI Process &igineea ) 5 months

Back-up Speciali,s ) 12 man-months

j Sea details of staffing under the various project activities in Table 2of the main report.

ANNEX 6Appendix IPage 2

Designation Recruited From Duration of Appointment

All Programs

I Administrative Officer GCNWFP 5 years20 Foresters (Inventory) NWFP FD 1 year

6 Foresters n n 5 years2 Forest Guards (Site Asssessment) n 2 years

6-8 Forest Guards n n 5 years4 Clerical Staff (Inventory) GONWFP I year3 Clerical Staff 5 years5 Drivers (Inventory) 1 year2 Drivers (Site Assessment) 2 years4 Drivers 5 years

10 Peons/Sweepers 5 years

Dia,rgam ifJustmting possible maniagement chan,&es ANNI= 6ar fol3ow-up prolets inlementation 2

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PAKISTAN


Pre)iminary Program Evaluation

Introduction

1. An important objective of the proposed technical developmentproject will be the selection and detailed evaluation of the overallprogram of forestry development for the Hazara region. A broad assess-ment of likely program results is however, desirable. On the basis ofthe preliminary information now available, one possible program hasbeen devised which appears to provide a reasonable match between anticipatedfibre availability and the demands of the pulp and paper market. Apreliminary evaluation of this program, has been made to indicate whetherthe activities of the technical development project are likely to leadto forestry and forest industries projects which are viable. This isdiscussed in the following paragraphs.

The Program

2. Key features of the program as presently conceived are as follows :

(i) The technical development project would commence in1977 and extend for five years;

(ii) by 1980, large scale commercial planting of bothpine and hardwood species would begin. Plantingwould stabilize at a level of about 5,900 acresannually, sufficient to meet the fibre needs ofthe proposed pulp and paper mill;

(iii) the first stage chemical pulp mill would start upin I98h, using chir pine from the existing naturalstands. This mi]l would have a production capacityof 26,000 tons of bleached pulp and 8,000 tons ofunbleached pulp. Pulp would be flash-dried, baled,and sold to existing paper mills; and

(iv) a chemical-groundwood pulp mill (pulping plantationhardwood) and a newsprint mill would start up inthe latter part of 1979. Approximately 10,000 tonsof bleached pulp from the chemical pulp mill wouldbe diverted to newsprint production. At full capacity,annual saleab]e output from the pulp and paper millwould be as follows :

- 16,000 tons bleached pulp- 8,000 tons unbleached pulp- 4o,000 tons newsprint

Page 2

Costs and Benefits

3. The following preliminary cost and price data have been used toestimate the likely return from such a program.

(i) Although there would be differences due to thetype of land and the species to be planted,overal1 planting costs would average US$140per acre;

(ii) the type of forest (natural or plantation) andthe species would give rise to differing logg-ing and transport costs. An overall averageof US$6.85 per cubic meter has been used.

(iii) payments to the owners of eidsting timber (bothpublic and private) wil: have to be negotiated.For this study a figure of PRs 5 per cubic foot(US$17.65 per cubic meter) has been used. -2/

(iv) the plant capital required for the pulp milland subsequent newsprint mill addition wouldtotal US$135 million with an additional US$6million in working capital. Conversion costshave been estimated on the basis of chemical,energy, labor and other costs currentlyprevailing in Pakistan.

(v) an average mill-net price for both pulp andpaper of US$550 has been used. Actual deliveredprices in Pakistan have ranged from US$500 toUS$1,000 over the past two years, but arecurrently at about the US$500 level.

4. Using these estimates, a preliminary projection of project financialcosts and benefits has been prepared (Table 1). The financial internal rateof return determined from this projection is 11%; the economic rate of return,using a shadow value of 4C% of market wage for unskilled labor and an exchangerate of PRs. 11 - US$1 ,/is 14%. Additional unquantified benefits are improvedwatershed management and employment generation, both of which are significant.

Conclusion

5. Although not overly attractive, the projected rate of return (whichcovers forestry plantations, logging operations, and the pulp and paperindustry) is typical of the levels currently found in projects of this type.

3/ Based on last data available for contract purchase of Chir pine, 1974.2/ These shadow values have been taken from the Appraisal of the Khairpur

Ti]e Drainage and Irrigated Farming Development Project (Khairpur II)Report No. 106 2-a PAK, June 1976.

ANNEX 7Page 3

It is confidently expected that similar results would be obtained from areplication of this integrated approach to forestry development, for examplewith a combined plantations/sawaill/boirds mill in Mirpur or Murree MillsChir pine zones. On the basis of the data presented here, it appears likelythat the Technical Development Project will lead to forestry and forestindustry projects which will be capable of generating acceptable rates ofreturn.

PAKISTAN


PRELIMINARY PROJECTION OF COSTS AND BENEFITS-"(U0$4 Million)

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992-99 2000-07 2008

Forestry Operations

- Plantation Establishment 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.51- 0.5 0.5 0 .51/ - -- Royalties on Standing Timber - - - - 1.6 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 - -

- Logging and Transporting - - - - 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6

- Total Cost of Forestry Operations 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 3.2 4.3 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.3 4.7 4.9 4.9 1.6 1.6

Industrial Operations

- Plant Capital 6.0 8.0 20.0 25.0 6.0 0.6 0.6 6.0 18.0 21.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -

- Working Capital - - - - 3.0 1.0 - _ _ 2.0 - - - (6.0)- Operating Costs _ _ _ _ 4.4 5.8 4.9 5.2 5.2 7.0 8.4 8.8 9.4 9.4 9.4

- Total Cost of Industrial Operations 6.0 8.0 20.0 25.0 13.4 7.4 5.5 11.2 23.2 30.0 13.4 9.8 10.4 10.4 3.4

Revenues

- Pulp Sales (tons) - - - - 17,000 26,000 31,000 34,000 34,000 33,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 24,000 24,000

- Paper Sales (tons) - - - - - 6,000 24,000 34,000 40.000 40.000 40,000

- Total Mill Net Sales Revenues _ _ 9.4 14.3 17.1 18.7 18.7 21.5 28.6 33.0 35.2 35.2 35.2

Net Benefit (Cost) (6.5) (8.5) (20.8) (25.8) (7.2) 2.6 6.6 2.0 (10.0) (13.8) 10.5 18.3 19.9 23.2 30.2

1/ Pine planting would continue after 1988, and eucalyptus planting after 1999, but the costs have not been included here because the benefitswould not be obtained during the period of the projection.

2/ The financial internal rate of return is 11%, the economic internal rate of return is 14%. For a discussion of these results see Attachment 7 page 3.

Appendix I

PAKIS3N

RAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT

Preliminary Program Evaluation

Estimated CommerciaJ Plantations Costs

PRs/Acre

Capital Cost of Nurseries, StaffHousing and Office Buildings 65

Equipment and Transport ho

Roads and Firebreaks 100

Surveys 5

Nursery SeedJings 180

Planting, Weeding, Beat-Up 320

Protection 20

Overheads and Administration 280

Sub-Total 1,010

Maintenance over Rotation (20%) 200

Contingencies (10%) 120

-,330


PAKISTAN


PreliminarY Prograsm Evaluation

Logging Methods Suitable for the Program

1. This program, as it is now conceived, wi]l have two different sets oflogging conditions with which to contend. Ultimately it is expected that thepulp mill will be supplied from 20 year old coniferous and 10 year old hardwoodplantation. This will call for a suitable logging method to annually clear-cutabout 10 million cubic feet of unifornly small diameter trees from about 6,000acres of plantation. Some of the plantations will be in large contiguous blocksand some might be very small, scattered areas of private farm forests. Topographywill vary from gently rolling to very steep, with most of the area in the steepcategory.

2. Considering the large numbers of unskilled laborers who are presentlyin need of work in Pakistan, it is recommended that pulpwood extraction fromthese future plantations use labor intensive methods, with mechanization beingused only in the form of trucks for hauling from the forest to the pulp mill.Table 1 details estimated costs of the plantation logging. If, in the future,availability of labor decreases and labor costs increase, then mechanizedloading methods and possibly cable extraction systems might be considered.But, at the present time, mechanization, which would require purchase ofsophisticated machinery and spare parts from abroad, is not recommended.

3. The other set of logging conditions which must be considered in thisprcject are those connected with extraction of the present chir pine forestspreparatory to establishing pulpwood plantations. Many of the trees in thisforest are large, mature trees in stands presently being managed under theuniform shelterwood system. The conditions under which these stands will belogged for this project will depend on GOP decisions regarding timing ofconversion from the present scattered cutting under a 120 year rotation to thatof clear cutting and planting under a 20 year rotation. Logging conditionswill also depend on decisions regarding how much of this present chir pine forestwill be used to supply the proposed new pulp mill instead of being used tohelp supply construction timber into the market.

4. To provide an adequate pulpwood supply for an early start up of the pulpmill and to accomplish a smooth transition of the existing chir pine forest to aproper distribution of plantation age classes, it will be necessary to commit allof the existing chir pine in the project area to an end use as pulpwood only.This will call for a logging method suited to clear-cutting the existing58,000 acres of forest over a 16 year period, beginning in ]984 and ending in1999. It is recommended that the same labor intensive methods be used as arerecommended for plantation logging. The principal difference is the variabilityin diameters of the trees in the natural chir forest. Some of the trees inthe natural forest will contain logs too large in diameter to be easilyextracted by hand methods, so they will have to be split at the falling siteinto manageable sizes. Table 2 details estimated costs of this operation.


5. Present logging methods extract only sawn scants from individuallymarked, large trees. These trees are felled and sawn or hewn into scantsaveraging about 6 inches by 10 inches by 8 to 12 feet long. These areusually carried by mules for distances of up to four miles down the L:ountainside to the nearest collection point on a road. Some small diameter roundposts are also brought out as well as the larger side cuts. These are allsold at auction at the roadside depot. What remains in the forest iscollected by villagers for firewood, so in effect very little is wastedexcept sawdust and chips.

6. The proposed logging operation will differ from these existingoperations in several ways :

(i) The entire stand will be clear-cut including smalldiameter trees}

(ii) aJl of the wood will be extracted by manual laboror by animal power down the mountain side, mostin round form, with only logs too large to hand)nebeing split. No sawing will be done, as splittingis cheaper and produces an acceptable wood formfor pulpwood;

(iii) many contour type truck roads will be built so thatmaximum extraction distance downhill frcm stump toroad will be about 400 meters;

(iv) logs need not be moved to sale depots, as they canbe loaded on trucks for hauling to the pulp millfrom whichever point they most naturally reach theroad.

7. The principa] preparation for this type of logging will be the planning,engineering, and construction of many miles of forest truck roads. To estimatelogging costs, we have suggested a road density of one mile of road for each 160acres of productive plantations (25 meter per hectare) at a construction cost ofR8 40,000 per mile. Actual road costs per cubic foot of wood-produced will alsodepend on how much road will have to be constructed across agricultural landsn*t under forest cover and whether part of the cost of such multi-purpose roadscould come from another source. It is recommended all construction exceptdrilling and blasting of rock be by hand methods.

8. For the first five years of the mills operation (1984 through 1988)all logging will be in the natural chir forests. This will require at least110 miles of new road to serve between 17,000 and 18,000 acres of reservedand guzara forests. Since logging must start in 1983 for a mill start upof 1984, planning and engineering for logging road construction must startby at least 1980 so that road construction for the first 2,000 acres isfinished by the end of 1982. About 20 to 25 miles of road will need to becompleted every year thereafter until 1989 when logging of hardwood plantationswill commence. For the 10 years after 1989 about 40 to 50 miles of new roadwill need to be completed each year. After about the year 2003, all logging

ANNEX^ 7kopendix 2Page 3

wlll be in plantations where roads have been previously constructed androad cost wil thereafter be reduced to the cost of maintenance only.

9. Two likely sources of bottlenecks in this type of logging operationare: an adequate number of trucking contractors with suitable contractsfor hauling pulpwood without delay; and adequate advance planning, engineering,and road construction so log extraction distances can be held to a minimum.

J0. No specific training programs are anticipated for this logging androad construction operation, since it contemplates essentially the samemanual methods now being used. However, the logistical problems of employing,caring for, and supervising such a large number of men will. have to berecognized and allowances made far enough in advance so as not to delayoperations.

11. There will likely be conflicts between desirable logging blockboundaries for the new system of clear-cutting with short extraction distancesto new roads and the presently existing compartment boundaries as demarcatedon the ground and in working plan maps for reserved and guzara forests.The locations of the present compartment boundaries were selected so as tohave a homogenous timber stand within each compartment. This facilitatedallocation of each compartment into PBI, PBII, PBI3I, or PB IV status forcontrol of the uniform shelterwood system. Since this management systemwill be replaced by clear-cutting to a plantation system, this previouscriteria for compartment boundaries will no longer be valid. New compartmentboundaries should be selected based on the new logging system of shortextraction to frequent roads and also based on requirements of the even-agedplantations which will thereafter constitute the forest. Ownership boundarieswithin new compartments can be designated and payments made accordingly,without necessarily making the new plantation compartment boundaries coincidewith ownership boundaries.

Appendix 2Table 3

ESTIMATED COST OF PULPWOOD UNLOADED AT MILL

FROM PINE OR HARDWOOD PLANTATIONS

(excluding stumpage payments) 7

Based on 5 million cubic feet per year from 2,500 acres of pine plantationsand 5 million cubic feet per year from 3,500 acres of hardwood plantationsproduced at the rate of 40,000 cubic feet per day for 250 working days peryear. All work by manual labor except trucking and rock drilling and blast-ing during road construction.

Number of Number ofCubic feet Men Foremen Logging Costper man aay @ Rs 15/day @ Rs 25/day Rs per cubic feet

Felling 420 96 10 0.04

Debranching 247 162 16 0.06

Bucking 290 138 14 0.05

Extraction to Road 70 572 60 0.21

Loading 214 188 20 0.07

Unloading 250 160 20 0.06

Trucking (Based on current contract prices) 0.50

Road Construction 156 26 0.13(Pine Plantations15.6 miles/yr)

Road Construction 219 35 0.17(Hardwood Plantations21.9 miles/yr)

Supervision 96 0.12(Pine Plantations)

Supervision 105 0.13(Hardwood Plantations)

Supervision 70 0.09(No Road Construction)

Overhead - 0.25

Pine Plantations Hardwood Plantations Plantations withRequiring Requiring Roads Previously

Road Construction Road Construction Constructed

1.49 1.54 1.33

.22 (Contingency 15%) .23 .20

Rs 1.71 per cft Rs 1.77 per cft Rs 1.53 per cft

(US $6.16 per m3) (US $6.37 per m3) (US $5.51 per m3 )1] Cost of p]antations establishment has been included as a direct cost in the model.

ANNEX 7Axpendix 2Table 2

ESTIMATED COST OF PULPWOOD UNLOADED AT MILL

FROM EXISTING CdIR PINE FORESTS(including atiwpage payment)

Based on 5 million cubic feet per year jroduced at the rate of 20,000 cubicfeet per day during 250 days per year. All work by manual labor excepttrucking and rock drilling and blasting during road construction.

Number of Number ofCubic feet Men Foremen Logging Costper man day @PRs 15/day @PRs 25/day PRs per cubic feet

Felling & Bucking 60 333 30 0.30

Splitting (25 % ofvolume) 50 100 5 0.08

Extraction to Road 30 667 40 0.56

Loading 214 94 10 o.08

Unloading 250 80 10 0.072/

Trucking (Based on current contract prices) 0.50

Road Construction 208 20 0.19(20.8 miles/yr) 3/2

Overhead and Administration,ineluding staff salaries and ancillary 15O(ancillaries) 40 (staff) 0.25workers

Contingency @ 15% 0.30

Royalty 5.00

Rs 7.33/cft

(US $26.39/m )

Total Labor Required - 1,632

Total Foremen and Staff - 155

*Total Manpower Requirement - 1,787

*Does not include personnel engaged in contract trucking.

31J Based on average standing volume of 15OO ft. /acre.2] At PPs 5/mile for 5-ton (400 ft.3) load over 40-mi3e round-trip.2/ Based on roading density of I mile/1 6 0 acres.

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