April 2004 Reliability of PV stand-alone systems for rural electrification

Tackling the Quality in Solar Rural Electrification – Target

Action-C Contract No. NNE5/2002/98

Work Package 1

Part 1: Literature Findings

Frans Nieuwenhout Taric de Villers

Nitant Mate Miguel Egido Aguilera

UNIVERSIDAD POLITECNICA DE MADRID ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE OF THE NETHERLANDS INNOVATION ENERGIE DEVELOPPEMENT ITPOWER INDIA

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Abstract In this first report of the TaQSolRE project, an analysis of the current status of solar rural electrification in developing countries is presented, focussing on quality aspects. It is based almost exclusively on an extensive literature review. At the end of 2003, an estimated 3.4 million households benefit from solar rural electrification, of which 2.4 million through solar home systems. Combining survey results from different sources, it was found that 63% of the installed solar home systems are still working well, and 15% is not working at all. An overview is presented of field findings regarding the different technical- and non-technical problems causing these early failures of solar systems. Quality assurance activities have been implemented to a certain extent in a number of countries. But their impact on actual quality levels still remain under discussion.

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CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES 6 1. QUALITY ASPECTS IN SOLAR RURAL ELECTRIFICATION MARKETS 7 1.1 Introduction 7 1.2 Definition of quality 8 1.2.1 Quality aspects in rural electrification 8 1.2.2 National quality assurance schemes 11 1.2.3 Instruments to improve quality 14 1.3 Quality issues 16 1.3.1 Perception of required quality levels in the end-user demand driven market 16 1.3.2 Implementation of standards 16 1.3.3 Effectiveness of standards 17 1.3.4 Warranties 17 1.3.5 The role of standards in extending product lifetime 17 2. SIZE OF THE SOLAR RURAL ELECTRIFICATION MARKET 19 2.1 Solar home systems 20 2.2 Solar lanterns 19 2.3 PV battery charging stations 19 2.4 PV minigrids 20 2.5 Discussion 21 3. CLASSIFICATION OF RURAL PV-MARKETS 23 3.1 Institutional aspects of the supply chain 23 3.2 Product selection through public bidding versus end user choice 24 3.3 Conclusions and recommendations 26 4. DATA BASE ON RELIABILITY OF PV-COMPONENTS AND SYSTEMS 27 4.1 Objectives of the data base 27 4.2 Scope of the data base 27 4.3 Specification of required data 28 4.3.1 Operating status 28 4.3.2 Reliability and dependability 28 4.3.3 System performance 29 4.3.4 User satisfaction 29 4.4 Data base structure 29 5. RELIABILITY OF PV-COMPONENTS AND SYSTEMS 32 5.1 Operating status of solar home systems 32 5.2 Reliability of components 33 5.2.1 Reliability of PV modules 34 5.2.2 Battery charge regulators 35 5.2.3 Batteries 36 5.2.4 Fluorescent lights 38 5.2.5 Wiring and sockets 39 5.2.6 Solar lanterns 40 5.2.7 Solar battery charging systems 40 5.3 Satisfaction of users 40 6. IDENTIFICATION OF KEY STAKEHOLDERS INTEREST IN QA 41 6.1 Introduction 41 6.2 Definition of PV Supply and Service Chain 41 6.3 Definition of stakeholders 42 6.4 Definition of Quality Issues 42 6.5 Participative pre-survey method 43

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6.6 Identification of interest in QA for different stakeholders 44 6.6.1 Users of solar systems 45 6.6.2 Private operators 46 6.6.3 Public institutions 49 6.6.4 Funding sector 51 7. REFERENCES 52

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1 Number of distributed solar lanterns per country according to different sources . 19 Table 2.2 Solar battery charging stations in selected countries ............................................. 20 Table 2.3 Number of installed solar home systems per country and estimate of the total

number distributed in developing countries ........................................................... 21 Table 2.4 Estimated total size of the solar rural electrification market for domestic

purposes in developing countries [in million of households reached] ................... 22 Table 3.1 Major characteristics and differences between projects and fully commercial

distribution.............................................................................................................. 24 Table 3.2 Quality aspects in solar product selection for two cases: selection through a

bidding process with quality standards, and through en user choice only ............. 25 Table 5.1 Overview of status of solar home systems from 19 different sources (numbers

are percentages of investigated systems) ................................................................ 32 Table 5.2 Percentages of solar home systems that are working well, working partially or

not working at all for projects compared to retail sales......................................... 33 Table 5.3 Failure rates of BOS components in Nusa Tenggara province in Indonesia in

2001 ........................................................................................................................ 34 Table 5.4 Failure rates of PV modules ................................................................................... 35 Table 5.5 Breakdown frequencies of charge regulators in early programme stage in

Tunesia.................................................................................................................... 35 Table 5.6 Failure rates of battery charge regulators in % (with ‘N’ the number of surveys

with relevant information) ...................................................................................... 36 Table 5.7 Battery lifetimes in the Sukatani demonstration project in Indonesia .................... 37 Table 5.8 Average battery lifetime in months from different sources ..................................... 38 Table 5.9 Typical average battery lifetimes in years for different battery types and

different circumstances ........................................................................................... 38 Table 5.10 Fluorescent lights: failure rates of fluorescent tubes and ballasts ........................ 39 Table 5.11 User satisfaction in % of respondents (with ‘N’ the number of surveys)................ 40

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1. QUALITY ASPECTS IN SOLAR RURAL ELECTRIFICATION MARKETS

1.1 Introduction Solar PV systems can provide electricity reliably over many years, meeting electricity demands of households in remote rural areas. But generally, the picture looks less bright. Project evaluations show that a considerable number of these systems are not working anymore or only meet part of the design load. Technical failures often lead to high cost for users, disappointment with the solar energy solution and can result in strong negative publicity for solar rural electrification. Occurrence of minor technical problems, which still allow some level of electricity use, is often a reason for stopping credit instalments. Preventing avoidable technical problems is therefore one of the main driving forces behind activities to enhance quality in solar rural electrification. In this first report of the TaQSolRE project, an analysis of the status of solar rural electrification in developing countries is presented, focussing on quality aspects. The aim of this project is to enhance the technical quality of PV stand-alone systems by means of quality assurance procedures and the diffusion of “best practices”. The sometimes inferior technical quality of PV stand-alone systems hampers the confidence and acceptance by the consumers. The project tackles this issue with the help of a combined strategy - on the one hand, by promoting the quality control of PV systems according to standards that can be verified at local level and on the other hand, through development of reliability analysis software for PV installations. The methodology to reach both the targets is inherent in the critical significance of the “local” aspects and the need for improved feedback from field experience. Two of the scientific objectives of the project that will be dealt with in this report are: A. To identify the technical problems linked with the social acceptance of solar rural

electrification in developing countries; B. To establish technical parameters that permits on a temporal basis the quantification of PV

system reliability and confidence ensuring energy delivery. Work package 1 of the TaQSolRE project is called: Analysis and evaluation of solar rural electrification markets. Reporting is split into two parts. The current report consists of an analysis of quality aspects in solar rural electrification markets almost exclusively based on a literature survey. The second part of the work package 1 report will focus on findings of the field work done by the project partners. It is due at the end of the project, January 2006. This report is a follow-up activity of three previous activities of the TaQSolRE project partners, namely the Universal Technical Standard for Solar Home Systems [IES-UPM et al, 1998], the report: Issues of Quality Control of the JOULE III-funded CESIS-PV project [IED, 2001], and a review study of experiences with solar home systems [Nieuwenhout et al, 1999, 2000]. The CESIS-PV report provides an overview of the status of quality assurance procedures for solar applications in developing countries. This TaQSolRE report intends, among others, to provide an update on quality assurance status with experiences from more countries. In the CESIS-PV report, nine different PV rural electrification products were covered, with a focus on solar pumping. In the TaQSolRE report we cover quality issues with solar home systems in detail because they have become by far the largest part of the solar rural electrification market. Two other products are discussed in less detail: solar lanterns and solar battery charging stations. Quality assurance issues for these two products are expected to be more or less similar than for PV systems. In the overview of the solar rural electrification market there is a short section on PV (hybrid) mini-grids because they provide a more or less similar service level as solar home

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systems. However, quality issues in PV-mini grids are not discussed. Some of the quality issues will be different and be more in line with conventional quality procedures in utility-based grid extension activities. The report is divided into six chapters. The size of the solar rural electrification market is discussed chapter 2, and the market structure in chapter 3. A database has been developed for easy access to quantitative information on reliability aspects of solar systems and components from different sources. Chapter 4 provides an overview of the structure of the database and chapter 5 summarises the main findings from the database. In chapter 6, the interests of different stakeholders in quality assurance is discussed. The first chapter continues with defining the scope of quality issues for this report, providing an outline of the different quality assurance instruments and summarising the experiences with national quality assurance programmes.

1.2 Definition of quality In general, the term ‘quality’ refers to how good something is compared to a standard or compared to other products. From a technical point of view, product quality is achieved when certain product requirements are met. Quality can also be defined from a usage perspective as the extent to which a product or service meets user’s expectations. The main technical aspects of quality are service lifetime of the system and its components, performance (e.g. efficiency), safety, and reliability. From the social point of view, quality in solar rural electrification can be defined as the effectiveness and efficiency of PV in achieving general development objectives and more specifically rural electrification targets.

1.2.1 Quality aspects in rural electrification A) Information Dissatisfaction with the performance of a solar system can be caused by unrealistic expectations of the users. It is not uncommon to compare it with grid electricity that usually has less capacity restrictions, often at subsidised rates. Especially in undeveloped markets, awareness about the limitations of PV is crucial. In South Africa ‘fly-by night’ operators were active that sold car batteries with a 10W panel and an inverter to run an AC television. This would work for one or two days until the battery was flat. The small panel was not sufficient to meet the expected demand (see also box on user expectations). Another relevant factor is the difficulty for a buyer to obtain reliable information on the actual quality of the product. The lowest cost product involves the least amount of risk. This factor can be influenced by providing information of comparative tests or via the use of a quality seal.

User expectations and information quality A real life example of a new housing development in one of the middle class suburbs of Nairobi - all houses are un-electrified and will remain so for the next few years. This was thought to be a great market for systems of 50 - 80 Wp with 5 - 7 lights per Solar Home System. Sundaya Solar did a serious campaign in the area with even special offers. The result was that indeed a few households came out and had a proper system installed. But even more people that apparently were convinced about the benefits of PV went to town and purchased an A-Si module of 12 - 14 Wp with 4 - 5 lights connected. But soon, they were regretting their choice, as the cheap module did not live up to their expectations. [de Bakker, 2003]

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There is a widespread practice of providing an estimated amount of electricity from a solar home system by multiplying the nameplate Wp power by the equivalent number of peak sun hours (typically around 5 hours in tropical regions). This figure is then used to calculate how many hours the lights or the television can operate. But this does not take into account all sorts of losses, which typically reduces the available energy by about 50% [Nieuwenhout et al, 2002]. Household surveys in Indonesia showed that many users were not aware about their rights and obligations in government sponsored projects. People tried to sell their system while it was still government property for a ten-year lease period. Not everyone knew their rights of obtaining replacement for components under warranty [unpublished SHS monitoring results BPPT and ECN in Indonesia, 2003]. According to a survey in Chile 95% of the SHS users did not know where to obtain replacement parts. [Cancino et al, 2001] On the other hand, the initial TaQSolRE survey in India indicates that the user is more casual and callous about replacement of system components, especially when major price of the system is paid through government subsidy programs. B) Project design Many projects have failed due to poor follow-up and lack of capacity building. The ESD study: PV market chains in East Africa provided the following example from Ethiopia: “In 1996, over two thousand PV-powered radio receivers were sold to primary schools as part of a distance education program. The systems were well installed by Addis based suppliers, and all the aspects of the initial project were carried out well. However, at the planning stage, no consideration was made of the long-term maintenance and parts replacement for the systems installed, namely batteries. By the year 2000, virtually all the batteries in these systems had failed, and the schools were not using the otherwise intact equipment. They did not know how to replace the batteries, and they did not know which parts of the systems were not working.”[ESD, 2003] C) System design In the commercial markets for small systems in Eastern Africa, there is a trend where whole system suppliers are giving way to over the counter traders of inexpensive components that are sold on a piecemeal basis. In this process the attention towards good system design is decreasing. [ESD, 2003] According to Duke et al, the most common design problems they found in a survey of the commercial market in Kenya are: • PV panels are undersized relative to the loads, and batteries are oversized relative to panels • Between 70-90% of the design decisions are made by vendors and customers only, without

input of a technician. Only 7% of the shops that sell PV specialise in PV. • Even among solar technicians design knowledge is limited. Only 17% were able to correctly

size a battery for a solar home system. [Duke et al, 2002] In solar home systems that are only used for lighting it is common to find more than half of the electricity being ‘used’ when people are asleep (see e.g. the profile of use shown in figure 12 in [Parodi et al, 2000]. For orientation lighting, including one or two small 1 W incandescent lights can potentially save almost half of the investment cost [Nieuwenhout et al, 2002]. D) Component quality In PV rural electrification, there is a substantial number of faulty installations, in spite of the generalised idea of success yielded on the scientific project meetings, which is high enough to doubt on the maturity of this energetic source. However, it is also a reality that the modules as well as the BOS components are rather technologically advanced products, and the manufacturers can produce reliable and durable equipment [Maish, 1997]. Failures on the installations are linked not to the modules, but to the BOS components and also, largely, to the

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installation. The reason of the bad operation is usually the malfunction of some of the components, although it is also frequent that the failure is associated to a bad installation or maintenance and in some cases, a wrong design of the system. Quality problems on the Kenyan market are overrating of modules, poor quality amorphous silicon modules, and low quality lamps and BOS components [ESD, 2003] The lack of economic resources, together with the ignorance of technical requirements of PV systems, led to the consideration of the regulator as the more dispensable element of the installation. (In Kenya, which has an important private market, only a 10% of the systems are provided with a regulator, of which 18% are by-passed [Van der Plas, 1999]). Taking into account that the system is often purchased in parts, the acquisition of the regulator is usually postponed. The result is that the battery lifetime is shortened –the mean SHS lifetime is about 1,5-2 years [Huacuz, 1995]–. Considering the best case, if the cost of a PV system accumulation is supposed to be the 33% of the initial cost, we can deduce that the battery is the most expensive element in photovoltaic electrification over the system lifetime. If this value is compared to the mean values reached in professional installations of some kW peaks, the difference is huge. The battery service life on these lasts up to ten years [Spiers, 1996]. The most important application of SHS is illumination, followed by TV. Given the simplicity of the technology necessary to produce the ballasts, they are usually manufactured locally. The advantages of this are the easy access to spare parts, as well as the adaptation to the local market. However, the lack of a generalised quality control system, impacts on the heightening of the failure rate. The improvement of the photovoltaic rural electrification situation is based on the analysis and comprehension of the characteristics of all the elements building up the installation. That is the reason why the standardisation task and consequently, the development of test procedures allowing the corroboration of the pursuance of the standards, are a priority. The results of the First Regional Solar Programme (PRS1), which have been evaluated quasi unanimously very positively by the scientific community, constitute an example of how this mechanism determines the success of a project [FONDEM, 1996]. The process of standardisation and certification of the specifications pursuance is far from being innocuous. The development of highly sophisticated normative procedures, either for standards or for certifications, can turn up into a curb on the local market development, which are, however, the main beneficiaries of the rural electrification programmes. Besides, sophistication does not necessarily imply reaching the aim of the quality improvement. On the contrary, it increases the technological dependence of developing countries, which hinder the sustainability of electrification programmes. The fact is that the technical committees that decide on the international standards are mainly composed of industrialised country representatives. PV rural electrification is applied basically in developing countries, but the technology and the manufacturing of the PV system components: PV modules, charge controllers, solar or stationary batteries and loads is lead by developed countries; consequently, there is a lack of feedback of field experiences in the components design. Given these serious quality issues, the global PV industry, supported by financial institutions and government agency funding programs jointly agreed on the need for a global PV quality assurance program. The result, with the guidance of the PV industry and the PV community, was the formation of the Global Approval Program for Photovoltaics ( PV GAP) in 1997. The PV GAP approval system includes the elements of a globally acceptable quality system. It also provides the approved manufacturer with a distinctive PV Quality Mark for PV components and a seal for systems, based on IECQ approval. However, the full technical standards package for PV stand-alone systems is not yet finished. Only PV modules standards are completed, but for the B.O.S. components the process is under

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way. In consequence, the PV GAP is proposing to use standard drafts not globally accepted or discussed. One of the key points on the technical success of PV rural electrification is proper maintenance; although PV systems were considered not to need it, this old idea has been rejected as a result of the experience, proving that no large-scale project can be implemented without ensuring this point. The maintenance is based on the availability of qualified technical staff, spare parts and affordable costs, as well as the necessary infrastructure to perform it. These conditions could be seriously compromised if the local PV market is not encouraged as the consequence of promoting a certification methodology in which the local actors are not being involved. From the photovoltaic material suppliers' point of view, the certification of their products by accredited laboratories can imply a notable increase on its fabrication costs. Several consequences are derived from this fact: increase of the electrification total costs, reluctance to include the certification of products as a contractual requirement, boost on the free market of non standardised products. The direct consequence is that the dissemination of photovoltaic electrification could be sharply restricted. Seven years after the PV GAP was launched, only three PV module brands have obtained the PV Quality Mark and no more than five laboratories have been accredited; none of the PV system have obtained the PV seal yet. E) Installation Projects usually arrange installation of systems through their own staff or by hiring local technicians. In retail sales markets, most systems are self-installed. Technicians rarely get a formal training. On-the-job training is more common, and likewise also more effective. Quality of the PV system depends to a large extent on the quality of the installation. Common problems are: insufficient module support, incorrect orientation and tilt of the module, shading of the module, use of too small wire sections, inappropriate fixing of wires on the walls, lack of connection boxes and twisting of wires instead of using switches. Low quality of installation leads to unnecessary losses in system functionality. F) User training When user training takes place it is usually a one-time effort, at the time of the installation, depending on the availability of the household. In a survey in Chile in a village in a dusty environment it was reported that 91% of the interviewed said that they were instructed to clean the panels. Most panels were difficult to access, and owners were often elderly people. On the other hand, even younger people did not clean their panels [Cancino et al, 2001]. This illustrates the need for follow-up activities after the initial training. G) After sales services It is seen that many PV systems fail duel to lack of an effective servicing network. The user is mostly not trained and moreover is not capable of maintaining the system. In Kenya and Uganda, efforts are being put in preparation of guidelines for, system design, installation and after sales services [ESD, 2003]. Initial TaQSolRE survey findings in India show that 5 years of after sales service is now included as part of the cost of the system. Efforts are being made to put a system in place for implementing a reliable after sales service network. Several manufacturers / installers of stand alone SPV systems in India seem to have taken up the service aspect seriously.

1.2.2 National quality assurance schemes Worldwide efforts to improve quality in solar rural electrification have focussed mainly on introduction of product standards. National standards have been formulated in a number of countries (e.g. India, Indonesia, and Morocco) where these are used to select suppliers for government projects. When each country has its own standards, this provides a barrier for international suppliers of hardware. PV-GAP is the lobbying organisation to get international standards and quality marks generally accepted.

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Projects of bilateral donors often have some component that supports industry in the donor country. This usually results in the application of high-quality and high-cost components, manufactured by large internationally operating companies. Their own internal quality procedures typically result in sufficiently high product quality. Since the focus is mainly on hardware sales, the other aspects such as installation, training, etc. receive relatively less attention. Consequently, there are lots of examples of failed donor projects in solar rural electrification. Nepal One of the few positive exceptions regarding explicit emphasis on quality issues in bilateral donor funded activities is the support of the Danish government to the solar photovoltaic sector in Nepal through the Energy Sector Assistance Programme (ESAP). Possibly due to absence of a photovoltaic home industry, the Danish support provides sufficient attention to all major quality aspects and not just product quality. Active support of the Nepalese government, among others through a subsidy scheme, has led to a rapid development of the PV sector in Nepal. PV-modules and batteries are imported from various manufacturers outside Nepal. Most of the remaining Balance of System components are produced locally. At first, product quality of the locally produced components was low. But the latest charge regulator designs now meet the Nepalese Interim PV Quality Assurance (NIPQA) standards. The whole quality assurance chain in Nepal contains procedures for attaining product quality, service quality, and a management information system to keep track of quality of PV installations in the field. Installers of solar home systems and other PV equipment are only eligible for government subsidy if their products meet the Nepal Interim PV Quality Assurance standards. These will be replaced by international standards such as PV-GAP. The NIPQA document specifies minimum standards of the PV system components and installation practices. For cables and switches, the Nepal Bureau of Standards and Metrology has developed a quality seal, which is mandated in the NIPQA standards. A Solar Energy Test Station (SETS) has been established to perform tests for quality control based on the NIPQA standards. Other SETS activities are support in product development and provision of manpower training. For promoting quality in service provision in Nepal, criteria and procedures have been developed for solar PV companies to qualify for the government subsidy programmes. Through a Performance Evaluation mechanism, the Alternative Energy Promotion Centre (AEPC) evaluates the performance of participating companies. Criteria exist how to grade the different companies. Default will result in disqualification. AEPC verifies the quality of installed SHS and the after sales service through regular visits of users. The Centre for Renewable Energy (CRE) has produced training manuals for solar electric technicians. This includes skill-testing standards. After passing the tests, installers receive a certificate. Through the Energy Sector Assistance Programme, a management information and monitoring system has been developed. This system is intended to enable a close follow up on the quality of the solar PV installations in the field and will be an integral part of the overall Management and Evaluation system for solar PV systems. [SEMAN, June 2003] Monitoring of field activities is an integral part of the quality assurance chain in Nepal. For the companies to obtain the government subsidy, the new owners of the SHS have to fill out a form with which the installer can obtain the subsidy through AEPC. Based on this information AEPC organises sample visits in the field to check if the right equipment has been installed correctly and if the regular maintenance visits actually took place. If not, the installing company has to reimburse the subsidy. If there are more of these occurrences, the company will be blacklisted.

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The quality of the equipment, the installation and service determines the ranking of the company (grade A, B or C) [Vreeken, 2004]. World Bank China The World Bank is active in promoting quality improvement in a number of countries, most extensively in a recent project in China. A range of quality improvement features have been applied in the World Bank/GEF-assisted China Renewable Energy Development Project: • Business development assistance to improve business planning, develop warranty

documents and setting up procedures for quality assurance; • Development of technical product standards; • Strengthening capabilities of local testing and certification institutions to support them in

obtaining ISO Guide 25 status that will allow international acceptance of product certificates;

• PV product design improvement through training of engineers of a university group. This group is now the centre that is providing design assistance services to local manufacturers;

• Manufacturing quality improvement training for companies, focussing on establishment of an ISO Guide 9000 quality compliant management system;

• Training in installation and maintenance services; • Information dissemination about qualified products and participating dealers [Cabraal,

2002]. World Bank Indonesia In the early nineties, the World Bank/ GEF assisted Renewable Energy Development (RED) project was conceived. The solar component had a target of 200,000 solar home systems. When everything was ready for the start of implementation, the financial crisis of 1997 made the provision of loans in rural areas impossible. Economic recovery in Indonesia was very slow and project design was not flexible enough to cope with these adverse circumstances. End of 2003 the project was stopped after about 7,000 solar home systems had been distributed. One of the positive outcomes of the project is the establishment of a comprehensive quality assurance infrastructure. To become eligible for support through the RED project, companies had to submit a business plan containing a description how they intend to install the systems and establish a local service infrastructure. Through the Project Management Office, companies could receive support in formulating these business plans and obtain training in business development. Technical specifications were formulated. Originally, the Staff Appraisal Report stated a minimum module capacity of 50 Wp. Modules have to meet the internationally recognised standards. Batteries were required to meet an Indonesian battery standard (SII 0160-77). Use of locally made car batteries is allowed. For the remaining BOS components standards were formulated. An existing solar energy laboratory (LSDE) was assisted to obtain official ISO Guide 25 accreditation as a certified solar component-testing laboratory. Post-installation monitoring was foreseen through random audits [World Bank, 1996] The first round of component testing was done by UL because LSDE was still preparing their testing facilities. Somewhat unexpectedly, the fluorescent lights had most problems in passing the tests. Fluorescent lights from four local manufacturers were submitted for qualification. A high quality, high-cost fluorescent light was the only one that immediately passed the UL tests. ECN was asked to assist the other three manufacturers to improve their designs. One was a simple one-transistor design that could not be improved to meet the standards. Adoption of a complete new design was the only alternative. The two others were based on the same principle. They were good quality designs, but both did not meet the efficiency requirement by a few percent. One of these designs had been in production already in Indonesia for years and more

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than 100,000 units had been sold at that time. The other design was a prototype that was not yet in large-scale production. Optimising the electrical component values resulted in a slightly higher efficiency, but still just below the requirement. Only when the cheap diode would be replaced by a much more expensive varistor, the efficiency requirement could be met. Due to the absence of a substantial project demand at the time of the ECN design assistance (1998), none of the manufacturers implemented the ECN recommendations. When the RED project eventually took off, the two fluorescent lights obtained a certificate from LSDE. This illustrates the need for well defined standards that prevent sales of low quality products, but not necessarily target at achieving the highest efficiency levels [Unpublished ECN laboratory work in 1998] Some years later, ECN became involved in monitoring a follow-up activity of a large, Australian funded solar home system project in Indonesia (the AusAid project). We encountered many problems with the fluorescent light inverter, which was produced by the company of which the prototype design just did not meet the requirements in the beginning. They had discarded their original design and instead were producing a modified version of the expensive design of another company, which immediately passed the UL test before. Some electrical components were replaced by cheaper ones. One of these components has a design value that is very close to the maximum current level that can be expected in the inverter. Consequently, the failure rate due to burned inverters is substantial. At least 120,000 of these inverters have been produced for the AusAid project and local government projects [field findings monitoring visits BPPT-ECN 2000-2003]. The overall impact of introducing standards for fluorescent light in solar home systems in Indonesia on the quality of fluorescent light inverters in the field has been negative. The low-quality producer stopped production before the RED project actually took off as a consequence of the financial crisis of 1997. The local producer for the government projects replaced its basically good design for a bad imitation of an expensive high quality design. The other local producer continued to produce his un-modified design, mainly for export. More then 1,000,000 have been sold at the end of 2003, which indicates that this design is meeting customer requirements. This example of a negative effect of introduction of product standards on the market in Indonesia is likely to be an un-typical case. However, it illustrates that formulation and implementation of standards does not necessarily always lead to the desired quality improvements. There is a need for sufficient flexibility that allows reacting on field findings of badly performing equipment that nonetheless have obtained an official certificate.

1.2.3 Instruments to improve quality In a fully commercial market, other instruments, besides standards and certification, are relatively more important. Some of these instruments are described in a paper by Duke et al 2002. These are product branding, warranties, domestic component testing and disclosure, certification and labelling, and minimum quality standards. Product branding Advertising and product branding primarily concern with provision of quality information. In general, companies that invest in branding must deliver high quality goods. In case of PV modules this mechanism does not work well to promote quality because users have no means to assess module performance except when degradation is very serious [Duke et al, 2002]. Warranties Ideally, warranties protect users against premature failure and under-performance of the product. For solar home systems the efficacy of warranties is limited because of difficulties in measuring module performance, lack of knowledge of user of their rights and the fact that some importers and vendors do not honour warranties [Duke et al, 2002].

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For the worst quality brand of PV-modules on the Kenyan market, the warranty terms are more or less similar compared to the best ones. However, in a survey reported by Duke et al, 2000, all the modules of this brand showed less than 75% of rated power, while 90% of these modules were still under warranty. Domestic component testing and performance disclosure In absence of minimum quality standards, testing system components can still influence product quality on the market. In an evaluation of the PV module quality in the Kenyan solar home system market, this was identified as a ‘promising instrument’ by the authors [Duke et al, 2002]. There are two main differences between component testing for performance only and testing for international certification (such as IEC 61646 for thin film PV modules). First, international module certification involves not only the power rating, but a wide range of quality aspects, requiring a considerable number of tests, but at a high costs. Secondly, the certification programmes result in a binary conclusion: pass or fail, while a performance test results in the measured output figures [Duke et al 2002]. The effectiveness of this instrument is still unclear. Sales of the lowest quality a-Si modules in Kenya have continued to increase from a market share of 20% in 1996 to over one-third in the first quarter of 2000. This took place, despite the fact that this low quality brand had the highest price per delivered Wp. But the price per rated Wp was similar to their competitors. Their somewhat higher rated power likely helped in marketing [Duke et al, 2002]. Certification and labelling IEC standards exist for crystalline and thin film PV modules. In 2000 only one of the brands of amorphous silicon PV modules on the market in Kenya was certified (Millennia of BP-Solarex). Certification is not expected to affect the market in Kenya very much, since buyers do not trust any seal. Low quality product vendors could easily confuse the public by misleading claims. An example is the claim by a low quality supplier that their modules have: "Quality Design to ISO 9001". This only means that their manufacturing facility commits itself to explicitly formulated management practices, but it does not say anything about the quality of the products [Duke et al, 2002]. Minimum quality standards Governments could legally prohibit import and sales of solar components that do not meet certain minimum quality standards. However, there is a fear for possible corruption, and high costs associated with establishing local testing facilities. Furthermore, minimum standards could be too strict, leading to reduced competition. [Duke et al, 2002]. The case of Kenya provides an illustration of the importance of quality issues. In Kenya, PV was left to the commercial world of private entrepreneurs. It developed into a component market where people buy components on a piecemeal basis and combine these into a system: Batteries are often second-hand, and usually grossly oversized. Controllers are rarely used (A rough estimate is that some 75 % of the solar home systems in Kenya still are not equipped with a controller), or cheap controllers are used that do only battery overcharge protection (HVD) and no under voltage load cut-off (LVD). Lamps are often of such poor quality that they need replacement in a couple of months. The result is that during a decade of free enterprise the image of PV suffered a lot and that government agencies generally do not consider PV as a credible alternative to grid-based electrification. Up to this very moment the government of Kenya has never been involved in any PV based electrification. If the performance of PV systems is indeed not drastically and worldwide improved a serious backlash might be expected [de Bakker, 2003]. Management information systems In Indonesia the first government project with a formal management information system was the AusAid project, through which 36,600 SHS have been distributed in 1997-1999. Management

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of a previous project (Banpres) by BPPT was seriously hampered by a lack of information on financial status and technical problems. To address these issues, a Management Information System was planned for the AusAid project. Computers were installed in government offices in the 14 regencies. Main objective of the MIS was to control the implementation of the monthly payments and the provision of SHS spare parts in each of the regions. Village co-operatives that were responsible for local management send hand written status reports to the regency offices, from which they were supposed to be send to Jakarta by modem. However, due to problems with the quality of the telephone lines, the MIS operators at regency level could not send their reports to BPPT in Jakarta. Consequently, the MIS was stopped in 1999 [Fitriani, 2003].

1.3 Quality issues

1.3.1 Perception of required quality levels in the end-user demand driven market In the commercial market, buyers focus primarily on the price. It appears that there is no interest in taking into account quality aspects. The reasons behind this seemingly irrational behaviour are complex. One important factor is that discount rates are much higher than what is common in industrialised countries due to the tightness of the availability of money (see box). Financial benefits of using high quality equipment will be mainly through longer component lifetimes resulting in lower future expenses and lower total expenditures over a longer period of time. However, due to high prevalent discount rates the net present value of these benefits is relatively low, making the choice for low-cost low-quality a rational decision.

1.3.2 Implementation of standards In the short term, implementation of standards results in protecting users from dangerous, in-efficient and short-lived equipment that will certainly lead to disappointment with the solar energy option. In the long run, standards will influence component developers in designing better, more suitable products. Strict standards can be beneficial for the long-term objective of product quality improvement, but can have negative consequences on the short term. Due to the limitation of choice, prices for consumers will be higher than otherwise, and the price/performance ratio is possibly higher than optimal. When suppliers can not meet the requirements, this can provide an incentive for cheating. Often, local production will not be able to meet strict standards. In the case of Kenya, imports have to be evaluated by the Kenyan Bureau of Standards, whereas local producers enter the market without any certification. Small local companies that do not meet any standards are likely to have a negative impact on the image of PV in East Africa. This might weaken government support for solar rural electrification. Ideally, one would like to have standards that become gradually more strict when the industry becomes more and more mature. However, the process of getting international standards formulated and accepted is difficult and slow and does not allow for frequent adjustments of quality levels over time. International manufacturers, the World Bank, research- and testing institutes dominate the current debate about standards for solar rural electrification equipment. These stakeholders

Discount rates - This is an example of how high discount rates affect user choices in developing countries. When a poor farmer is asked to choose between two plastic buckets for sale; Bucket A costs 2 dollars and last for 2 months and Bucket B costs 4 dollars and last for a year. Still, many people will opt for the absolute cheapest option. Money is that tight. [de Bakker, 2003]

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appear to have an interest in formulating relatively strict standards. These can push local producers out of the market. Standards should preferably not be made for each individual country but should be valid globally. The main reason is that from a manufacturer's point of view the quality of products should not have to meet a different set of standards for each country. This will help to reduce manufacturing costs through economies of scale.

1.3.3 Effectiveness of standards Some cases have been reported where tested equipment showed relatively high failure rates when applied in the field. In Indonesia, one of the local suppliers of fluorescent light inverters for solar home systems have a design that was tested in the framework of the World Bank Indonesia RED project. However, many of these light inverters had to be replaced due to burnt components. It turned out that the specified maximum current for the transistors is close to the design current, resulting in many early failures [personal communication BPPT, Oct. 2003]. ECN has tested a number of batteries for solar home systems. One of these is widely applied in Indonesia. Laboratory tests showed no degradation or loss of capacity over a nine-month period. Despite the use of charge regulators, many complaints about early failures come from the field (completely dead within a few months). It appears that the manufacturer is not able to maintain a sufficiently high production quality over time. Both examples illustrate that standards are not sufficient to guarantee a high product quality and long lifetime. Testing focuses on product design. But testing outcomes also depend on the production quality of the batch of the samples that were tested. This can change over time.

1.3.4 Warranties Both in retail sales and projects, it is common that warranties are provided for the modules, the battery and the charge controller. Providing a warranty is a marketing instrument that is used to create extra confidence with the buyer. It also provides continuous incentives for manufacturers to maintain a sufficiently high production quality level. In practice there are doubts to what extent warranties are actually being honoured. Transport costs back to the manufacturer are usually very high (see box). Many users do not seem to be aware of the possibility of getting replacements. In most countries this instruments needs further strengthening before it really has a positive impact on quality.

1.3.5 The role of standards in extending product lifetime To facilitate a sufficiently long component lifetime is one of the objectives of standards. Since expected lifetime can be a few years for batteries, and in the order of 10 years for battery charge regulators, testing for such long periods is impossible. Accelerated lifetime tests, such as e.g. thermal cycling for PV-modules, are less relevant for batteries and charge regulators. For some aspects, different standards have considerably different requirements, e.g. for the set-points of

Warranty implementation – In Kenya, Sundaya imports solar home system battery boxes with and without batteries included. Many companies in East Africa equip these with their own battery. On the other hand there is the box with battery included, imported from Indonesia. These imported batteries have been approved by the World Bank for their projects in Indonesia, Sri Lanka etc. The local Kenya batteries have no such approval, and are probably of somewhat lesser quality. However, if an imported battery fails within the one-year warranty period there is an instant problem. The manufacturer does warrant its batteries, but sending a single battery back to Indonesia is not a serious option. In that case it is much easier to use locally manufactured batteries instead of certified imported batteries [de Bakker, 2003].

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the charge regulators. Another example concerns fluorescent lights. On theoretical grounds one expects that the crest factor1 should be limited, as it is in most standards. However, recent work at IES shows that there is no relation between crest factor and fluorescent tube lifetime. These examples illustrate the limitations of the knowledge within the PV-community on the background behind certain lifetime determining parameters. Since not all relevant parameters determining lifetime and reliability of solar equipment are well known, overly reliance on product standards can be detrimental for overall quality. More emphasis is required on feedback of field experiences to complement the outcomes from testing laboratories. Procurement procedures need to be flexible to allow for reconsidering original qualification, whenever actual failure rates are higher than acceptable.

1 Crest factor is the ratio between peak and RMS voltage of the fluorescent lamp inverter wave-form.

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2. SIZE OF THE SOLAR RURAL ELECTRIFICATION MARKET

To assess the relative importance of solar PV as a rural electrification option, the total number of households in developing countries that have been reached with solar electricity has been estimated. Most of the literature is about solar home systems, resulting in a relatively reliable figure for the total number installed. Information about solar lanterns is much more difficult to obtain, and the resulting estimation is therefore much less reliable.

2.1 Solar lanterns Quantitative information on solar lantern distribution could be obtained only from three countries (see table 2.1). Through its subsidy programmes, the Indian Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Sources (MNES) has subsidised distribution of 441,000 units up to March 2003. A solar lantern manufacturer in the Netherlands estimated the Chinese market to have a cumulative size of 160,000 solar lanterns. China has a number of solar lantern producers, but most of the production is for the camping market in Europe and the USA. In Ghana at least 2,000 units have been distributed. In total 0.6 million lanterns were distributed in these three countries. On average, they have 0.26 solar lanterns distributed per 1000 inhabitants.

Table 2.1 Number of distributed solar lanterns per country according to different sources Quoted Population lanterns

Country Number Year in 2001 per 1000 Source ( x1000) (x1 million) population

Ghana 2 2002 19.7 0.10 SDG 2002/2003 India 441 2003 1032.4 0.43 MNES, 2003 China 160 2002 1271.8 0.13 Nijland, 2003

Total 603 2324 0.26

Source: TaQSolRE database

2.2 PV battery charging stations In a solar battery charging station, people bring their batteries to be charged in one or more days. It resembles the common practice of having a battery charged in a nearby town with a grid connection or by someone having a genset. In some African countries surveys found that around 10% of the population in areas without electricity grid use batteries in this way. When distances to the nearest place with electricity are too large, solar battery charging stations can become an option. In practice, very few of these installations exist worldwide. Only in Thailand the government solar PV part of the rural electrification programme focuses on solar battery charging stations. About 1.9 MWp of battery charging stations have been installed in Thailand, funded through two government departments (DEDP and PWD). More than 1600 stations have been installed, averaging about one per village without grid access. In a paper about the programme in Thailand, Donna Green presents the figures as presented in table 2.2 with numbers of installed battery charging stations in selected countries [Green, 2004].

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Table 2.2 Solar battery charging stations in selected countries # of SBCS in 2001 # of SHS equivalents Thailand, DEDP programme 260 16,900 Thailand, PWD programme 1,400 35,000 Thailand total 1,660 51,900 Morocco 30 300 Philippines 225 5,000 Total 1,915 57,200 Source: Green, 2004

2.3 Solar home systems From 31 countries, recent quotes of the number of installed solar home systems are provided in table 2.3. The total reported number of solar home systems is more than 1.5 million. Total population in 2001 of these countries amounted to 3.3 billion inhabitants (compared to 5.2 billion inhabitants in all developing countries). Per 1000 inhabitants there were 0.48 systems distributed.

2.4 PV mini grids Isolated village grids with PV only or as hybrid system with diesel or wind have been installed on a pilot scale in some countries already from the start of solar rural electrification. Besides technical problems there are problems with restricting supply per household. New advances in metering and dispensing have resulted in some renewed interest in PV mini grids. China has more than 70 PV hybrid mini grids. An evaluation of 43 mini grids in 2000 showed that almost all of these systems were operating below design specifications, and a high percentage of the systems were no longer operating. However, current programmes intend to overcome institutional barriers and have ambitious targets. The National Programme for Remote Township Electrification aims at 17 MW of mini grids in 600 townships, mainly with PV, with an authorised budget of about 200 million Euro [Li Junfeng et al, 2002]. Since the target is 100 W per household connection, about 170,000 households would be reached if this programme materialises completely. There is very little information about the market in other countries. A very rough order of magnitude estimate of the number of households in developing countries that have been reached with mini grids with PV is a few tens of thousands, at most 100,000. As in the other categories of domestic PV systems, this includes defunct systems.

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Table 2.3 Number of installed solar home systems per country and estimate of the total number distributed in developing countries

Quoted Population SHS

Country Number Year in 2001 per 1000 Source ( x1000) (x1 million) population

Bangladesh 20 2003 133.3 0.15 Hirshman, 2002 Bolivia 20 1998 8.5 2.35 IEA PVPS Task IX, 2002 Chile 5 2001 15.4 0.32 Green 2004 China 500 2002 1271.8 0.39 Li Junfeng, 2002 Dominican Republic 3.5 2000 8.5 0.41 Martinot, 2000 Eritrea 1 2003 4.2 0.24 ESD, 2003 Ethiopia 8 2003 65.8 0.12 ESD, 2003 Ghana 4.3 2002 19.7 0.22 KITE, 2003 Honduras 2 2002 6.6 0.30 Soluz, 2002 India 235 2003 1032.4 0.23 MNES, 2003 Indonesia 100 2002 209 0.48 BPPT Kenya 180 2003 30.7 5.86 ESD, 2003 Kiribati 0.575 2003 0.08 7.19 IEA PVPS T9-07:2003 Lesotho 4 2001 2.1 1.90 IEA PVPS T9-07:2003 Malaysia 2 2000 23.8 0.08 http://www.aseanenergy.org/pressea/ Mali 4 1998 11.1 0.36 Diarra and Akuffo, 2002 Mexico 80 2000 99.4 0.80 Martinot, 2000 Mongolia 5 2001 2.4 2.08 Green 2004 Morocco 80 2001 29.2 2.74 IEA PVPS T9-07:2003 Namibia 2.6 2000 1.8 1.44 http://www.polytechnic.edu.na/reinnam/Info

rmation.htm Nepal 39 2003 23.6 1.65 Resha Piya,2003 Philippines 3 2000 78.3 0.04 http://www.aseanenergy.org/pressea/ RSA 50 2000 43.2 1.16 Martinot, 2000 Somalia 1 2003 9.1 0.11 ESD, 2003 Sri Lanka 45.0 2003 18.7 2.41 Kleiburg, 2004 Sudan 1 2003 31.7 0.03 ESD, 2003 Swaziland 1.2 1998 1.1 1.09 Lasschuit, 1999 Tanzania 25 2003 34.4 0.73 ESD, 2003 Tunesia 28 1999 9.7 2.89 IEA PVPS T9-07:2003 Uganda 10 2003 22.8 0.44 ESD, 2003 Zimbabwe 91 1998 12.8 7.11 World Bank, 2000

Total 1551 3261 0.48

Source: TaQSolRE database; population figures [World Bank 2003b]

2.5 Discussion Combining the findings for the main categories of rural electrification discussed above is summarised in Table 2.4. Apart from summing all the quoted numbers, also an estimation is provided for the developing country totals in 2003. An average growth rate of 15% per year has been assumed, to take into account growth in installations between year of reporting and 2003. Furthermore an estimate was made of the solar systems in the rest of the developing countries that are not in the list of Table 2.3. It is unlikely that the number of units installed per 1000 inhabitants in the rest of the countries is as high as in those countries mentioned in the table. There will be a selection bias: it is easier to find information from countries with substantial ongoing PV activities. On the other hand, the reported numbers from some countries in the table

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might be underestimated. For solar home systems, the team’s estimation is 0.3 systems per 1000 inhabitants in 2003. This compares with a number of 0.55 solar home systems per 1000 inhabitants for those countries in Table 2.3, including the 15% growth estimation. For solar lanterns a number of 0.1 units per 1000 inhabitants has been used as the team’s ‘guestimate’ for the remaining developing countries. Table 2.4 shows that currently, an estimated 3.4 million households in developing countries have been reached already with solar PV systems. This is equivalent to about 1% of the households that have no access yet to a grid electricity connection.

Table 2.4 Estimated total size of the solar rural electrification market for domestic purposes in developing countries [in million of households reached]

Category of solar rural electrification system

Quoted number of households reached (different dates)

[millions] *)

Estimated number of households reached at the end of 2003 [millions] **)

Solar home systems 1.5 2.4 Solar lanterns 0.6 0.9 Solar battery charging stations 0.057 0.06 Solar (hybrid) mini grids - 0.05 Total 2.2 3.4 *) Using the figures that are actually quoted for 31 countries, but for different dates (1998-2003) **) Corrected figure with 15% growth per year, and assuming for the rest of the countries 0.3 SHS per 1000 inhabitants and 0.1 lantern per 1000 inhabitants in 2003 Source: TaQSolRE team estimates, based on literature survey (tables 2.1 - 2.3) The numbers provided in this chapter 2 have to be interpreted carefully. For most countries the reported figures are estimates provided by someone involved in the market of the respective countries, either commercially or in a government organisation. Some of these estimates maybe too optimistic, but for the total world wide number this is expected to be compensated by estimates that are too conservative. Some of the figures are the cumulative total of systems installed through government programmes, e.g. in India. Since there will also be sales through the commercial market, these figures will be underestimates, provided the government figures are reliable. Since there is usually subsidy involved in government programmes, there is a possibility that actual distribution through these programmes is less than shown by the official numbers. In some countries there are reasons to expect un-official imports to avoid custom charges and other taxes [Diarra and Akuffo, 2002]. Some of the figures are based on surveys that are extrapolated to the whole country. For example the figure of 91,000 systems in Zimbabwe was based on 1998 ZESA National Energy Survey [World Bank, 2000]. The relatively well-to-do owners of solar systems can be expected to live in places not too far from good roads and are relatively easy to access. It is difficult to prevent this bias to affect the calculation of country total. There is a substantial chance that 91,000 overestimates the actual number of installed systems in 1998. All uncertainties mentioned here concern the numbers per country. For the calculation of the total number of solar home systems in developing countries based on individual country statistics, one expects that overestimates in certain countries are compensated by underestimates by others. However, the figure for solar lanterns is much less reliable due to the limited number of only three different sources.

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3. CLASSIFICATION OF RURAL PV-MARKETS

3.1 Institutional aspects of the supply chain Application of PV for household electrification started with small demonstration projects for mini-grids and solar home systems. In some countries these pilot projects were followed by increasingly larger government programmes (India, Mexico, and Indonesia). Elsewhere, the absence of government programmes allowed for a thriving commercial business that is driven by end user demands (such as in Kenya and China). In early demonstration projects hardware was often provided for free without provisions for maintenance. This unsustainable practice is not common anymore. Government projects usually involve product subsidies, typically in the range of 50-90% of the system costs. The five basic modes of distribution and ownership are the following: 1) cash sales through commercial dealers 2) subsidised distribution through government or NGO programmes where the user directly

owns the system 3) credit sales in which the user directly owns the system and has a credit agreement with a

bank or other financial institution 4) lease-purchase distribution in which ownership of the system is only transferred to the user

at the end of the contract period 5) fee for service or energy service company (ESCO) in which a utility type organisation

continues to own the system and users only have to pay a regular fee. Sometimes a mix of the above modes can be found such as for example the subsidised lease-purchase distribution through the AusAid project in Indonesia. These modes differ substantially with respect to financial and non-financial risks due to premature failure of equipment. In the list above, the five modes have been ranked in order of increasing risk to the project implementers and decreasing risk to the end-user. Un-serviced technical problems, including difficulties in availability of spare parts for normal replacements, usually leads to discontinuation of instalment payments. The higher the potential risks for the project implementers the stronger are the incentives for implementing adequate quality assurance procedures. The most fundamental classification of rural electrification activities is a division into projects and programmes on the one hand (modes 2 to 5 above) versus fully commercial distribution on the other hand (mode 1). They require different quality assurance mechanisms. In Table 3.1 the main characteristics of these two market types are summarised.

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Table 3.1 Major characteristics and differences between projects and fully commercial distribution

Projects and programmes Fully commercial distribution Driven by development objectives of governments or (bilateral) donors, political interests or export support of the home industry

Driven by end user demand and made possible by commercial interests of all the participants in the distribution chain

Always involves some sort of financial support, usually in the form of product subsidies, sometimes only overhead costs

No direct support provided, in some cases reduction of import duties

Growth in the number of systems distributed is determined by project size or annual programme budgets

Market growth is limited by human resource constraints, availability of working capital and availability of service infrastructure

Favouritism can influence the selection of beneficiaries of the project or programme, in some cases demand is higher than availability

Affordability is main criterion determining ownership in case there is sufficient access

Projects are often implemented by relatively large, modern companies

Retail sales are dominated by small informal sector companies (mainly self employed individuals)

Limited product choice by consumers: product selection is part of project procedures

Consumer has a major role in product selection: choices of today’s consumers influence product availability in the future

Payments are usually spread over one or more years

Payments usually by cash

Usually only one system size is promoted User chooses appropriate size System size often in the range of 35-55 Wp Small 10-20Wp module sizes dominate the

commercial markets High up-front cost barrier is dealt with by spreading payments over a longer period of time

High up-front cost barrier is dealt with by choosing smaller components, that are bought in a piecemeal fashion, e.g.: first television and a battery than a module, a second module and maybe a charge regulator

Complete systems Mainly separate components Charge regulator included Often applied without charge regulator Often installed through the project Mainly user-installed Often only one supplier active in a village A potential client can often choose between

different suppliers, that are usually based in a nearby town

3.2 Product selection through public bidding versus end user choice In a commercial market without formal quality assurance procedures, there are still some mechanisms in place that tend to promote advances in product and service quality. To a certain extent, consumers are capable of making well-founded decisions regarding the choice of suitable equipment. The promotional effect of a well-working system in the neighbourhood can not easily be overestimated. But ’free market mechanisms’ of quality control will always have strong limitations. They are not expected to work well in a pioneer market where people have very limited opportunities to experience working systems in their neighbourhood. It can be useful to assess how quality improvements can be achieved in the absence of standards and performance requirements that are usually applied in public bidding process of projects. In Table 3.2 the main differences in product selection are summarised for the cases of public bidding versus end user choice.

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Table 3.2 Quality aspects in solar product selection for two cases: selection through a bidding process with quality standards, and through end user choice only

Selection through quality standards and certification

End-user choice of equipment

Driving forces behind standards is to prevent application of low quality products that constitute a risk for the project implementers and donors.

User choice is driven by looking for low cost solutions, with sufficient reliability and meeting certain expectations

Actual product selection is based on results of testing product samples

Selection by consumer choice

Only quality and safety are taken into account The price/quality ratio is the most important, but other aspects such as the appearance are also relevant

Binary situation: requirements are either met or not

There is a trade-off between different aspects that are important for the consumer: lower quality can be acceptable if it is accompanied by lower prices

A one-time decision affects the availability of a product on the market for a longer period of time

Many individual decisions of customers choosing for equipment that is functioning well in their neighbourhood, eventually influences the access to products for future customers.

Product selection depends on a single decision of a test institute

Product availability and selection depends on many individual decisions of suppliers and consumers

Qualification is based on the design and production quality of the sample

Production quality over time is relatively more important

Some design aspects that affect lifetime, such as sensitivity to electronic component tolerances, are not well-covered in the standards

Products are ‘tested’ continuously in large quantities under real life conditions. All aspects that affect performance and lifetime are taken into account.

Information content of the outcome is very simple: quality is good enough or not

Information on quality of products is complex and not easy to formulate explicitly

Product lifetime is more difficult to assess than performance and safety

Lifetime is relatively easier to assess by users than performance. Some performance aspects are impossible to asses by users, for example delivered Wp [Duke et al, 2002]

Information is easily available at low cost to the consumer

Time and effort to find out experiences of others with certain equipment can be substantial

Risks to the consumer of exposure to low-quality and short-lived products are limited, especially for the most expensive components (PV-module and battery)

Risks of spending money on short lived equipment are relatively high

When warrantees are not implemented in projects with some sort of credit, users are often able to manage the risks of malfunctioning equipment by stopping payments

Consumer risks of non-certified equipment can be reduced when warranties are actually honoured

Financial costs of testing are relatively low compared to the possible damage due to the distribution of low quality products. These costs are not directly born by the consumer

Costs to the users of gaining experience with low quality products can be high and is largely born by consumers

Leaving product choice completely open to consumers has serious drawbacks. In Kenya, the increasing market share of the lowest-quality amorphous silicon module brand illustrates that the market is unable to discriminate between products of varying quality levels. Survey data

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also show that the majority of the owners do not know the brand name of their PV-modules [Duke et al, 2002].

3.3 Conclusions and recommendations Governments can influence Quality Assurance mechanisms in commercial markets only to a limited extent. The main mechanism, in which users gain experiences with systems using different components and spread this information through word of mouth, works best without much outside interference. Quality levels in projects and programmes can be influenced to a larger extent than activities in the commercial market. It can be expected that the effectiveness of Quality Assurance mechanisms in projects can be enhanced when some of the ‘free-market’ quality experiences are incorporated. The following recommendations can be made regarding projects: • Provide more room for user choice in system size, product brands and allow a wider range

of different price-quality levels; • Strengthen the relative importance of warranties, by focussing on implementation aspects of

warranties; Increase flexibility by allowing for feedback from field experiences with different products compared to relying mainly on an up-front selection through tests.

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4. DATA BASE ON RELIABILITY OF PV-COMPONENTS AND SYSTEMS

4.1 Objectives of the data base One of the aims of the TaQSolRE project is to identify technical parameters to quantify PV system reliability and confidence in ensuring energy delivery. Within the TaQSolRE project, the database on reliability of components and systems for rural electrification has to provide inputs for a model to quantify system reliability. Public availability of a structured source of information on reliability aspects is supposed to be useful to support discussions around quality assurance.

4.2 Scope of the data base This data base is limited to quantitative information on reliability of PV systems and components linked to a limited description of the quality assurance environment, i.e. a description or summary which quality assurance instruments have been applied in the cases for which data is available. This database is NOT intended to structure the information on quality issues gathered within the TaQSolRE project. A reliable solar system can be trusted to work continuously and to behave always in a way that one wants it to work. At the component level (battery, PV-module etc) reliability can be quantified by determining lifetime of the different components. Since a broken component does not necessarily mean that the system can not be used at all, at the system level a distinction can be made between three cases: systems that are a) operating well, b) completely broken, c) working partially, and still have some remaining functionality2. Besides this operating status, another reliability indicator that can be quantified for systems is the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP). Depending on data availability this can be quantified as the percentage of the days where Low Voltage Disconnect occurred, or the percentage of time in which the system is in LVD or the percentage of energy that could not be delivered due to LVD. It is expected that only in a very small number of systems LOLP can be calculated. The scope of the TaQSolRE project will be limited to the following solar rural electrification applications: • Only household applications and no institutional systems; • Small informal sector companies are included as far as their energy demand resembles those

of households (such as lighting and television); • DC + AC systems; • Only stand-alone systems and no mini-grids; • No upper limit on system size (most systems are expected to be below 100Wp, although in

some places, household installations of 1 kW or more exist); PV pumps will be included whenever they can be considered as household systems. Community water pumps will be excluded.

2 ‘Working partially’ is defined here as the status of systems in which at least one of the following conditions is met: a) one or more of the lights are broken, but at least one appliance can still be used; b) low battery capacity; c) charge controller is absent or bypassed. This definition is likely to differ for the different sources from the literature. Usually, the definition actually used in the field surveys is not explicitly stated in the evaluation documents. One has to be careful in comparing results from surveys done by different teams.

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4.3 Specification of required data Four key aspects have been chosen from the viewpoint of Quality Assurance: operating status (part of the systems that are still functioning well), reliability (lifetime of components and loss of load probability) satisfaction of users, and system performance (efficiency and losses). All four indicators can be quantified to a certain extent and information is accessible in the framework of past and ongoing projects. Quality has to be evaluated in relation to costs. Users will focus on quality and performance in relation to price. Money is scarce in developing countries, and high implicit discount rates make buyers extremely sensitive to first-cost differences. Only substantial performance advantages that can be communicated to potential buyers will make them choose for alternatives to the cheapest products on sale.

4.3.1 Operating status What percentage of installed systems is still operational and what is their current condition? This is an indicator to assess how effective solar PV is for rural electrification in general, being dependent on technical quality of the system components, system design, installation practices and existence of a well-functioning service infrastructure.

4.3.2 Reliability and dependability The general term ‘dependability’ is related to the concept of reliance (to depend upon something). It has four main aspects: reliability, availability, maintainability and safety [Bonnefoi, 1990]. In general, reliability can be defined as the probability that something performs a required function under stated conditions for a stated period of time. Average lifetime of components, or more precise, the Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) will be determined for the main components of rural electrification systems: PV-modules, batteries, battery charge regulators, fluorescent lamp inverters and fluorescent tubes. When a sufficient amount of information is available, a further breakdown can be made. For example for batteries one can look at differences in lifetime between car batteries, modified car batteries, and gel batteries. Different lifetime values can be calculated for components under different circumstances: commercial sales, projects, no BCR used, battery standards applied, owner installed the system himself and so on. Obtaining reliable MTTF figures is not simple under field conditions. Very few sources are available where all components have been replaced, and where straightforward MTTF calculations can be made. Usually information is available in the form of a percentage of failed components at a given point in time after the end of a project. To be able to calculate the MTTF one have to assume a mathematical model representing the failure rate of the component over time (this curve has the shape of a bath: high in the beginning due to infant mortality, low and constant in the middle and then increasing in the “wear out” period). [Diaz Villar, 2003] Dependability aspects that are included in the database are: • Reliability (failure rates, LOLP); • Maintainability (length of time with no service after a failure); • Safety; • Availability. Reliability is analysed in terms of: • PV-system design; • Quality of PV-modules and Balance of System components; • Dimensioning of system components in relation to loads.

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Technical quality will be analysed from the point of view of safety, performance, lifetime, climatic endurance and mechanical strength, with an emphasis on lifetime and performance. For each of the data items that we intend to gather, it is important to decide beforehand what will be the possible use or output or deliverable for which this data item is required.

4.3.3 System performance An important output of the monitoring work is information about the main energy losses in the systems. They fall into five categories, of which the first two are capture losses, and the other three are BOS losses. Numerically, the losses are presented as percentage of the reference yield (calculated by multiplying daily irradiation by the nameplate power of the PV-module). The ratio between useful energy to the load and the reference yield provides the performance ratio. Losses in between can be divided into the following five categories:

a) Module related losses Maximum power point of the PV-module can be measured with an IV-tracer. In the field an approximate value can be obtained while charging a battery by multiplying the measured module current with the module voltage (calculated from the battery voltage and the voltage drop over the charge regulator), and scaling this to 1000 W/m2. The difference with the nominal array power is caused by the combined effects of: dust on the module, differences between actual and nameplate capacity of the module, temperature effect, low light losses, cable losses and operation outside the maximum power point. Field measurements usually do not allow to distinguish between these individual loss items.

b) Shading and high voltage disconnect (HVD) losses The difference between what could have been generated by the module (at times without HVD) and what is actually generated as measured via the module current (array yield), is supposed to be caused by high voltage disconnect losses and shading by trees.

c) Losses in the charge regulator With the known (constant) voltage drops within the BCR and its own consumption one can calculate energy dissipation in the electronics.

d) Storage losses In absence of changes in the battery state of charge this is equivalent to energy losses in the battery and can be calculated as the difference between energy or charge in and out of the battery

e) Wiring losses [Nieuwenhout et al, 2002].

4.3.4 User satisfaction Satisfied users are essential for successful solar rural electrification. A positive attitude can be expected to result in better maintenance and better payment discipline. Information will be obtained through household surveys. To a much greater extent than with the other three quality aspects, the findings with regard to user satisfaction depend on subjective choices of researchers. The answers to direct questions about satisfaction with the equipment and service cannot be trusted due to the possibility of socially desirable answers. Indirect indicators are required to assess user satisfaction, and the choice of these is subject to discussion. Despite these difficulties, the importance of knowing more about how users appreciate their systems shifts the balance in favour of including user satisfaction as a relevant quality aspect.

4.4 Data base structure 1. Introduction

The TaQSolRE website contains information about stand alone solar systems from eight (at present) countries around the world. The site caters to two types of audience: people browsing the web for information, and people updating and maintaining their information on the site. To establish a consistent terminology, we will call 'user' the person who wants

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basic information and 'manager or partner' the person who logs into the site to enter/update his/her listings and search using an advanced reporting tool; while ‘administrator’ maintains the web site.

2. Database Entry

The Database section has the following purpose: a) to let managers log in and administer their systems and projects, thus contributing to the total content of the database and b) to allow the managers to review results based on own data and that entered by the other managers.

Information Collection:

The information that goes into the database can be gathered by different means. Some information will be collected through direct surveys of the systems accessible to the partners. On the other hand consolidated or system wise data can be used from the surveys the partners or other agencies may have conducted in the past (written acceptance required from the owner of the reference database in such case). At a later date, data could be entered based on contributions from some users after proper validation by the partners. The website will have a downloadable template for submitting such data to the partners.

Nature of the information:

The information will be about the system specifications, operating status of the system and components, end-user information, quality aspects of installation, information dissemination (training of the installer and the end-user, available choice, financing schemes, etc.), service and maintenance, and proper use of the system, user awareness and satisfaction.

3. Website Structure

The website has the following sections: Home, About Us, Database, Results, The Project, Partners, Links, and Contact Us. The access to the website is free and not restricted to any specific category of individuals. A person accessing the website will be able to see all the options. However, access to the results will be restricted to registered users only (‘download’ option will be available to only special users); while the database section will be completely accessible to only to managers. Mechanism of registration is straight forward and the users will be able to follow it very easily. There are no passwords to remember.

Information Available without Registration:

Home page will give different links. It will have attractive pictures and eye-catching explicit representation of the TaQSolRE project. ‘Project’ page gives an outline and the objectives of the present work. The ‘Contact Us’ section gives ‘mail to’ links and mailing addresses and contacts to all partners. The ‘Partners’ page gives link to the website of each partner. The ‘About Us’ page gives brief outline of the roles of each project partner. The ‘Links’ page gives related links on the world wide web, which provide similar or relevant information.

Restricted Area of the Website:

Results and interpretation of the data entered on the TaQSolRE website can be accessed by simple standard queries. This area can be used by any one registered with the website. The registered members will have a choice of opting for alerts on the latest updates of the website. While any one will be able to view results of the standard queries, the managers will be able to build own query and download any results in Microsoft Excel compatible format. On recommendation from any of the managers, a simple registered user can be given ‘Special’ status. In this case, the user will also be able to build queries and download results. However, data entry will be restricted to the partners (managers) only.

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Results:

Standard reports will be generated on the fly from the database at the click of a link. The page should have a list of reports that can be viewed with descriptions about each report. Attempt will be made to provide maximum standard reports based on the inputs from the partners. At present, it is envisaged that there will be at least about ten standard reports. The output will be a table with general statistics based on all entries in the database. It will be displayed in one page width while up/down scrolling will be available. In case further details are required on the report, the download link will give more columns in the excel file.

A ‘query building’ tool will help to prepare own reports based on the database. This report will also be provided with an option to download the result. If any of the queries is being used frequently, it is expected that the partners will inform the ‘administrator’ to incorporate it as an additional standard report. The objective is to reduce the time and efforts to use the website while providing the relevant information at the finger tips.

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5. RELIABILITY OF PV-COMPONENTS AND SYSTEMS

This chapter summarises the contents of the TaQSolRE data base on reliability of components and systems. The focus is on quantitative findings. In the section on component reliability, also qualitative findings from the literature have been incorporated.

5.1 Operating status of solar home systems For all solar home system activities for which information has been gathered in this reliability database 63% of the solar home systems is still working well, 23% is functioning only partly, while 15% is not working at all. Based on the figures of Table 5.1, it can be concluded that quality issues are important, serious quality problems occur in most projects, and there is still a lot of scope for improvements.

Table 5.1 Overview of status of solar home systems from 18 different sources (numbers are percentages of investigated systems)

working

working

not age at time

Activity Country well partially working of survey Source [%] [%] [%] [months]

World Bank Indonesia 77 23 0 27 Fitriani, 2003 Sukatani demonstration project

Indonesia 11 130 Djamin et al, 2000?

Sukatani demonstration project

Indonesia 3.2 108 Reinders, 1999

Sukatani demonstration project

Indonesia 100 0 0 12 BPPT?, 1991?

Retail sales Swaziland 73 17 10 31 Nieuwenhout et al 2001

Retail sales Swaziland 77 36 Lasschuit, 1999 ESMAP-programme Kenya 77 2 21 18 EAA, 2000 Test marketing small batteries Kenya 56 33 11 >6 ESMAP, 1999 Ramakrishna Mission (survey)

India 2 30 TERI, 2000; Sinha 2000; Stone 1998

SWRC India 71 27.5 1.5 29 Maithel et al, 2000? Urjagram project MNES India 42 12 TERI, 1993 ASTEC project India 90 5 5 18 Sharma, P.C., 1996 PLAN International Guatemal

a 53 4 43 36 Fundacion Solar,

1999 SEC retail sales Kiribati 10 48 Akura 2000 SHS project Camarones Chile 41 59 0 Cancino et al, 2001 ESKOM programme RSA 46 24 30 36 Hochmuth and

Gorris, 1998? Pilot dissemination phase Tunesia 34 32 34 84 AME/GTZ, 1999 Intermediate phase Tunesia 6 48 AME/GTZ, 1999

Average 63 23 15 44 Source: TaQSolRE database

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In the list of Table 5.1 there are four studies dealing with retail sales: the ESMAP programme study in Kenya, the two studies on Swaziland and the SEC retail sales in Kiribati. In Table 5.2 a distinction is made between retail sales and projects. The Kiribati study is relatively old and deals with the experiences of only one company. Therefore also the average operating status has been presented for those cases where Kiribati is excluded.

Table 5.2 Percentages of solar home systems that are working well, working partially or not working at all for projects compared to retail sales

working working Not Number Selection Kiribati

included well partially Working

of studies

[%] [%] [%]

19 All studies included Yes 63 23 15 18 All studies included except Kiribati No 65 20 15 15 Only projects No 64 20 16 4 Only retail sales Yes 59 21 19 3 Only retail sales (Kenya,

Swaziland) No 76 9 15

Source: TaQSolRE database From Table 5.2 it can be concluded that the figures for only retail sales are very similar to the total average of the projects only. When Kiribati is excluded from the analysis, the retail sales in Kenya and Swaziland have a somewhat higher percentage of systems that are still working well than the average of studies dealing with projects. Because of lack of uniformity in definition of ‘working well’ versus ‘working partially’ and the very small number of studies dealing with retail sales, it is not possible to draw a firm conclusion that retail sales perform better than projects. The only firm conclusion that can be drawn is that our data do not show any indication that systems distributed through retail sales perform less well than those distributed in projects. Conclusion: current field findings do not show a substantial difference in operating status between projects and retail sales. Since formal quality assurance procedures are mainly applied at the moment in projects, this might suggest a lack of effectiveness of the formal quality assurance procedures in place at the moment.

5.2 Reliability of components Information on lifetime of components can be obtained from statistics of failure rates. However, one should be very careful in interpretation of the results. To be able to calculate a mean time to failure, statistics of (cumulative) failures per year are required for a number of years. Another problem with data interpretation is that not all fault occurrences are actually reported. An example of failure rates of BOS components in one programme in Indonesia showed large differences between different regions (see Table 5.3), probably due to underreporting.

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Table 5.3 Failure percentages of BOS components in Nusa Tenggara province in Indonesia in 2001

Region Date of install.

Average life

[month] *)

SHS installed

[#]

FL inverter[%]

Battery [%]

BCR [%]

Ngada 1989-1999 30 2439 13.8 12.9 7.3 1997-1998 42 814 13.6 16.1 3.8 Ende 1999 24 867 1.8 3.5 3.2 1998-1999 30 753 3.0 1.2 0.5 1998 36 700 7.1 0.0 0.3 1997+1999 36 377 6.0 2.9 6.6 *) Based on date of installation Source: Based on data from the local governments of Ngada and Ende districts as cited in [BPPT, 2002]

5.2.1 Reliability of PV modules Because of international certification, most PV-modules are very reliable and rarely cause problems in solar rural electrification. Only when PV-modules are applied without mounting structure there is a substantial chance of breakage. For solar lanterns using small portable modules this can be a problem. In a GEF project for solar lanterns in Botswana, module breakage was the main technical problem [Nieuwenhout, Vervaart and Jacobs, 2003]. In East Africa a lot of uncertified PV modules are imported, mostly from India and China. Problem is both outdated and substandard production technology, as well as the lack of quality control: Only some factories do "flash" their modules before leaving the factory, but most do not. There is one enterprise in Nairobi that puts on its own sticker with a Wp rating which will be an estimated over-exaggeration by 100 %. (His argument will be "that no one in Kenya can verify it anyway!"). In addition there is an A-Si module (old Chronar technology) coming in from Harbin, China. That extremely cheap module also flooded Mozambique, and it was a plain disaster. [De Bakker, 2003] Many of such substandard panels have their power ratings overstated. Poor frames and sealant that are not UV stabilised result in disappointed service lives. [De Bakker, 2003] Average age of PV modules in a survey in Swaziland was 2.6 years. A relatively large percentage (7%) of the modules was replaced. Main causes of failure were lightning and theft. Dust collection can severely deteriorate power output when the module is not frequently cleaned. Measured power output from 11 year old PV modules in Indonesia increased from 32% to 57% of nameplate power after cleaning [Djamin et al, 2000] The available data do not allow making an estimate of the lifetime of PV-modules because most of the systems have been installed recently. An average failure percentage of 5% due to broken or stolen modules is found. The only exceptional case was a study in Botswana, where 23% of small amorphous silicon modules for solar lanterns were broken after one year. Without the figures of Botswana the average failure percentage of PV-modules is only 3% (see Table 5.4). This figure of 3% is supposed to be typical for PV modules that have a fixed position. For smaller modules that are moved regularly, the failure percentage due to breakage may be up to an order of magnitude larger.

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Table 5.4 Failure percentages of PV modules Activity Country Module broken Module Age at time Source

or replaced stolen of survey [%] [%] [months]

Sukatani demonstration project Indonesia 11.4 130 Djamin et al, 2000 Sukatani demonstration project Indonesia 1.0 12 BPPT?, 1991? Retail sales Swaziland 7.0 31 Nieuwenhout et al 2001 Retail sales Swaziland 0.0 0.0 36 Lasschuit, 1999 ESMAP-programme Kenya 0.0 18 EAA, 2000 a-Si module survey Kenya 11.5 >6 Jacobson et al, 2000 ASTEC project India 0.0 0.0 18 Sharma, P.C., 1996 Utility projects Brazil 1.0 Ribiero, C.M. et al., 1995 Utility projects Brazil 1.7 Barbosa and Fraidenraich,

1997 SHS demo project Argentina 0.0 0.0 Parodi et al, 2000 Pilot dissemination phase Tunisia 5.0 AME/GTZ, 1999

Average 3.5 0.0

Source: TaQSolRE database

5.2.2 Battery charge regulators One of the problems with charge controllers is that the load disconnect function is often bypassed by direct connections to the battery. In Indonesia 58% of respondents in a survey replied that they would bypass the charge controller after low voltage disconnect. Decreasing the low voltage disconnect setpoint is a common practice when charge controller provides easy access to the potentiometers used for setting the setpoints. A sample of 44 BCRs in Sukatani showed a range in LVD setpoint from 11.0 to 11.5V (average 11.1), while the recommended LVD setpoint is 11.6V [Reinders, 1999]. Especially in the in early stages of solar home system technology development frequent occurrences of charge regulator failures were common. For example in Tunisia almost half of the controllers showed technical problems in the pilot dissemination phase, while the following (intermediate) phase the frequency of problems was reduced to about one quarter of the systems.

Table 5.5 Failure percentages of charge regulators in early programme stage in Tunesia Technical problems Pilot dissemination phase Intermediate phase [% of interviewed hh] [% of interviewed hh] No breakdowns 55% 76% One or two breakdowns 34% 24% Fuse melted (due to manipulation of the user)

11% 0%

Total number of hh interviewed 44# 29# Source: Table 9-30 of [AME, 1999]

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About one-third of the battery charge regulators in the surveys reported in the literature showed problems. In more than half of these cases, the charge regulator is missing or bypassed. This suggests substantial dissatisfaction with the functioning of the charge regulators.

Table 5.6 Failure percentages of battery charge regulators from different sources in % (with ‘N’ the number of surveys with relevant information)

Charge regulator Range Average N Failure mode [%] [%] Broken, replaced or missing 0.7-72 13 12 Malfunctioning, but not broken 2.6-9 6 2 Bypassed 6-22 14 2 Source: TaQSolRE database

5.2.3 Batteries On a system lifetime basis, batteries constitute the highest contribution to the life-cycle cost. Most of the serious problems with solar systems are battery related. The quality of a battery is difficult to assess from the outside. User behaviour is as important to the lifetime as the initial product quality. For battery quality in the field, not just product qualification but also production quality control and handling and storage procedures are essential. EAA reports that a major cause of problems of batteries in the Bungoma K-REP systems in Kenya are the long periods on the shelf under self-discharge before delivery. All these batteries were modified SLI and most of them were more than one year old when they failed. Only two of them did not use charge regulators [EAA, 2000]. A survey in Swaziland showed that modified car batteries that were delivered originally with the systems were replaced with cheaper automotive batteries [Nieuwenhout et al, 2001]. In a survey in Swaziland, 80% of the batteries had open circuit voltages (5 minutes after disconnecting panel and load) of 12 volt or less. This suggests that people tend to drain their batteries as much as they can while hardly allowing the battery to fully charge up. [Nieuwenhout et al, 2001] In the demonstration project in Balde de Leyes in Argentina, 100 Ah tubular plate batteries were used. After 3.5 years, still 85% of these were still in good condition. However, due to the much higher costs than automotive batteries, and some occurrences of misuse (starting of cars) in future projects car batteries will be chosen by the project participants [Parodi et al, 2000]. In the World Bank assisted project in Indonesia a survey of solar home system users found broken batteries in that had a lifetime from 10 to 30 months, and one unit with a lifetime of only 1 month. One of these old batteries is still used to directly run a small black and white television for about an hour, implying a remaining capacity of around 2 Ah. [Fitriani, 2003]. At the beginning of operation in a solar home system, the battery has not yet reached full capacity due to insufficient plate forming. Usually after installation, the user starts to use the appliances directly. It is sometimes suggested not to use the system for 2 or 3 days so that the module can supply enough energy to the battery [Fitriani, 2003]. It is unlikely that this is actually implemented in practice. Another option is that plate forming should take place at the workshop when the battery is filled with acid.

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Sizing of batteries in relation to the load and optimal battery lifetime is a complex issue. In a demonstration project in Indonesia a relatively high module capacity of 80Wp was used for typical loads of 150 Wh per day. Consequently, battery lifetimes were about twice as long as reported from other projects.

Table 5.7 Battery lifetimes in the Sukatani demonstration project in Indonesia Nominal battery capacity Average lifetime Number of full cycles

*) [Ah] [months] [#] 65 (car battery) 34 188 70 (car battery) 42 216 100 (solar battery) 49 176 *) Calculated from average lifetime, assuming 12 Ah/day output to the load Source: [Reinders, 1999] From this table it can be concluded that 70Ah is an optimal battery size for these systems, although the differences are relatively small. This was already concluded from earlier monitoring work in Sukatani. Since that time 70Ah has become the most common battery in government projects in Indonesia. However, most PV modules are in the range of 50-55Wp. If battery capacity has to be related primarily to expected daily loads of around 150 Wh, then 70 Ah is still the optimal choice. However, if one wants to relate battery capacity to PV-module capacity, the optimal battery capacity should be around 50Ah. Based on field experiences in Australia, Dale Butler recommend to cycle batteries in solar home systems with daily depth of discharge (DOD) of 50%. At this rate, the cycle lifetime will be equal to expected corrosion life in tropical circumstances. [Butler, 1999]. This differs from the UTS, where an autonomy of 3 to 5 days is recommended [IES-UPM et al, 1998]. Early failure of batteries is the major technical problem of solar home systems because of the high costs involved of replacing the battery and the severe impact on the functioning of the system. Fluorescent tube or inverter failure is also common, but if one light fails, the systems still remains partially operational. Average battery lifetime can not be determined precisely if the survey is conducted before all the batteries have been replaced. In that case, just calculating the average lifetime of the batteries that have been replaced is underestimating the actual lifetime. In case of Sukatani, the lifetime can be determined accurately because the survey took place 10 years after the solar home systems have been installed. In the two cases in Swaziland, an estimate was made of the remaining lifetime of those batteries that were not yet replaced.

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Table 5.8 Average battery lifetime in months from different sources Activity Source Battery type Life Calculation method [mo] World Bank, Indonesia

Fitriani, 2003 Car 19 Average lifetime of batteries that have been replaced

Sukatani, Indonesia

Reinders, 1999 Modified car 50 Average lifetime

Sukatani, Indonesia

Reinders, 1999 Car (70Ah) 43 Average lifetime

Sukatani, Indonesia

Reinders, 1999 Car (65Ah) 34 Average lifetime

Swaziland Nieuwenhout, 2001

Modified/car 24 Including an estimated lifetime of batteries not yet replaced

Swaziland Lasschuit, 1999 67% solar/modified 33% car batteries

34 Including an estimated lifetime of batteries not yet replaced

Kenya ESMAP, 1999 Car? 13 Average lifetime of batteries that have been replaced

Source: TaQSolRE database Battery lifetimes in Sukatani are much longer than from other sources. This is probably related to the overdimensioning of the PV-modules: 80 Wp for three lights and sometimes television. The Sukatani systems are compared with the rest of the systems and a correction has been applied because of the fact that one can expect the numbers of the Kenya and World Bank Indonesia studies to underestimate lifetimes. The resulting typical average lifetime figures for the two main types of batteries are shown in Table 5.9. Furthermore a distinction has been made for cases where systems have been oversized, i.e. where PV-module size is large with respect to expected average daily load.

Table 5.9 Typical average battery lifetimes in years for different battery types and different circumstances

Battery type PV module oversized with respect to typical demand *)

Normal or undersized PV module with respect to typical

demand Modified car/ solar batteries 4 2 – 3 Car batteries 3 1.5 – 2 *) This column summaries the findings in Sukatani only Source: team estimates based on table 5.8 and other field experiences

5.2.4 Fluorescent lights Fluorescent lamp fixtures and inverters are a frequent source of problems. Locally made fluorescent lamp inverters sometimes cost only around 1 €. Many solar home systems function only partially due to fluorescent lamp failures. Fluorescent light inverters often cause interference with the radio or television signal. In a survey in Indonesia, 29% of the respondents complained about the disturbance caused by the inverter [Fitriani, 2003] In most programmes in Indonesia three fluorescent lights per system are provided. A survey in Sumatra found 12.9% of the inverters broken after about 2 years. However, many users stated to

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be satisfied with one or two electric lights, and still use a small kerosene lamp to compensate for the broken fluorescent lamp. [Fitriani, 2003] A survey in a demonstration village in Indonesia showed that after nine years, the average number of fluorescent tubes decreased from 3 to 2 per household. In the same period, the use of small (<5W) incandescent bulbs increased from 0 to more than 2 per households. These small bulbs are often used as orientation lights in bedrooms. [Reinders, 1999].

Table 5.10 Fluorescent lights: failure percentages of fluorescent tubes and ballasts Activity Country tube flickeri

ng ballast broken

tube age at time

Source

blackening or replaced

replaced of survey

[%] [%] [%] [%] [months]

World Bank Indonesia 19.4 27 Fitriani, 2003 Retail sales Swaziland 37.0 31 Nieuwenhout et al 2001ESMAP-programme

Kenya 12.0 12.0 18 EAA, 2000

Ramakrishna Mission (survey)

India 5.9 14.4 0.7 30 TERI, 2000; Sinha 2000; Stone 1998

Ramakrishna Mission (Rupayan)

India 5.2 13.4 30 TERI, 2000

ASTEC project India 3.0 2.0 18 Sharma, P.C., 1996

Utility projects Brazil 6.0 46.0 Ribiero, C.M. et al., 1995

Utility projects Brazil 22.3 Barbosa and Fraidenraich, 1997

ESKOM programme

RSA 11.0 24.0 36 Hochmuth and Gorris, 1998?

SHS demo project Argentina 0.0 2.0 Parodi et al, 2000 Pilot dissemination phase

Tunesia 16.0 21.0 48 AME/GTZ, 1999

Average 11.3 14.4 8.3 19.8 30 Source: TaQSolRE database

5.2.5 Wiring and sockets In Chile there were reported problems with the polarity of the sockets. Typical loads also do not have polarity marked explicitly. Therefore the majority of the people did not feel secure enough to plug their equipment to the solar home system [Cancino et al, 2001]. In Sukatani in Indonesia, users were prohibited to add extra wiring. Nine years after installation, 56% of the households had extra wiring to add appliances or to connect neighbours. In 43% of the cases, these extensions had been executed in a amateurish manner, which could cause the system to fail [Reinders, 1999].

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5.2.6 Solar lanterns Paul Polak evaluated the performance of 100 lanterns of six brands that were used for about a year [Polak, 1997] They were part of a World Bank funded test marketing activity. After 12 months the failure rate of the lanterns were at least 50%. All five brands showed technical problems such as: malfunctioning switches, non-functioning jacks for plugging the wire from the module into the lantern, and attachment of the wire to the panel. None of the lanterns had a well working low voltage disconnect. According to Polak, the high failure rate is the main reason why solar lanterns never caught on in developing countries.

5.2.7 Solar battery charging systems Thailand has the largest programme with solar battery charging stations. Different systems have been distributed by two government agencies: DEDP and PWD. More than 60% of the battery charging systems visited in a recent survey showed technical problems. These are mainly related to incorrect charging techniques, such as polarity reversal. Many of the junction boxes of the PV modules were damaged and a lot of control boards were destroyed. In DEDP stations a special plug connector was supposed to prevent the user of other batteries than those provided by DEDP that had a corresponding plug. To get around this restriction, villagers frequently removed the plugs so that the wires became exposed to allow connection of any battery. In PWD stations, most of the use of the system was for charging the smaller and cheaper 6V batteries. This is problematic, since they can be easily damaged by overcharging [Green, 2004]. Another earlier survey showed a very high percentage (more than 70%) of the charge regulators that were not functioning. Usually the cause is a broken fuse. In these cases, strings are directly connected to the battery. Substantial energy losses were found, such as inappropriate use of 6V batteries (causing inefficient charging); non-utilisation of part of the system due to inadequate planning, and losses due to non-removal of batteries when they are fully charged. [Sriuthaisiriwong and Kumar, 2001].

5.3 Satisfaction of users A number of surveys were found, where respondents have been asked if they were satisfied with their solar system. These types of questions are notoriously difficult to interpret, because in some cultures it is not common to formulate open criticism. In some of the questionnaires, indirect questions have been added that can be expected to be linked to user satisfaction. Examples are the questions if people would recommend the system to others, or if they want to keep the system even when it is possible to obtain a grid connection. The findings are shown in Table 5.11.

Table 5.11 User satisfaction in % of respondents (with ‘N’ the number of surveys) User responses in surveys [%]*) N Respondents state that they are satisfied 63 8 Would recommend the system to others 88 3 Keep the system, even when the grid comes 81 1 Respondents state that supply is insufficient 53 3 Source: TaQSolRE database *) Non-weighted average of the percentage of respondents of the different sources About two thirds of the respondents claim that they are satisfied with their systems. As expected this is approximately the same figure as the percentage of well working solar home systems.

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6. IDENTIFICATION OF KEY STAKEHOLDERS INTEREST IN QA

6.1 Introduction Previous chapters have already presented many aspects of the quality issues in solar rural electrification markets, but this chapter propose a look beyond the product and end-user point of view. The objective of this chapter consists in the definition and identification of the interests in Quality Assurance (QA) for each of the stakeholders of the PV market. It is proposed to assess the perception of and the need for Quality Assurance amongst the various players, from both literature and partners’ experiences. A meticulous analyse of QA problems, not only by themes and projects, but also from different stakeholders involved in rural electrification programmes, will definitely contribute to elaboration of a strategy to increase the confidence in PV stand alone systems.

6.2 Definition of PV Supply and Service Chain In Developing Countries, the deployment of PV technology for rural electrification is a complex financial and organisational issue because it implies numerous actors from various sectors to diffuse expensive PV systems and services from the upstream manufacturer down to the low income isolated end-user, with each actor aimed to make profit or at least to be paid for its involvement. The figure below illustrates the common delivery chain of PV systems with the main stakeholders and sectors involved.

• Manufacturing activities include components development & manufacturing, system integration, …

• Distribution and marketing activities are dealt by vendors, wholesalers, retailers, … • Installation and after sales services are managed by national or local contractors, … • Project implementation is managed by public or private project developers, consultants,

… • Financing activity (loan, grant, gift) includes private investors, development

organisation, development bank, financial institutions, …

ManufaturersWholesalers /

Retailers /Contractors

End users

Project developers/ Consultants Financiers

Private Sector Final Customer

Private / Public Sector Funding Sector

Delivery Chain of PV Systems

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6.3 Definition of stakeholders In any rural electrification programme using photovoltaic systems, there are many different stakeholders from various sectors involved in the supply and service chain, as illustrated above. They usually have a variable but rather low level of PV technology knowledge and very few of them are concerned by product and service quality. Depending of the type of PV electrification scheme, one can identify up to 4 groups of stakeholders that are involved in the PV systems supply/service delivery chain. A non exhaustive list of actors is given here under:

Final Customer Private sector Public institution Funding sector

“cash” buyer manufacturer ministry, gvt official international donor

“credit” buyer distributor/dealer/ vendor national gvt agency national donor

“hire/purchase” buyer installer/contractor local administration financial institution

“fee-for-service” user project developer regulatory body development organisation

consultant utilities

private investor NGO

local operator research institute/testing lab.

6.4 Definition of Quality Issues Quality concept of PV systems has already been defined in the chapter 1 in terms of product quality and service quality (see also the “definition” box beside). Some specific case studies in developing countries were also presented to illustrate the complexity of QA procedure implementation. It is generally acknowledged that a lack in quality, in terms of PV product, installation and service quality as well as in organisation and management of implementation programmes, is often responsible of PV project failures. As the PV market is growing, consciousness of technical standards, training accreditation and PV practitioners’ certification is becoming more and more important to increase the reliability and performance of PV systems [IEA PVPS T9, 2003]. Unfortunately, many stakeholders from developing countries perceive QA concerns as developed for rich countries (high level and heavy procedures) and not relevant for poor countries. The implementation of appropriate QA procedure will be developed through the Work Package 2 of this TaQSolRE project.

Standards: A recognised set of standards usually help to increase quality of a product and contribute to reduce project failures. Draft international technical standards (IEC and CENELEC) for some components exist already for some time. For whole systems a first IEC draft is being circulated. A number of countries have implemented national standards for government supported projects (for example in India, China, and Indonesia). Major work is done to develop “recommended” standards, practices and guidelines throughout the world, but not always in a harmonised way. Quality assurance: Technical standards need to be really applied but standards alone are not sufficient to improve efficiently quality levels; to implement successfully a PV programme in the long term, one should pay attention to quality through the whole implementation process, from PV components to final services for end-users.

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Quality assurance system: a QA system should be developed at least at national scale to control the quality level at different stage of a project and to ensure real satisfaction of all stakeholders, from end-users to private sector and funding agencies if any. QA procedure: The implementation of a QA system requires that components and systems meet international or national recognised standards, that the personnel for PV design, installation, commissioning, training, maintenance and management is recognised or certified and that quality control mechanism by a independent organism is put in place in the country. Quality control: In an efficient QA system, it is crucial to control regularly the compliance of circulating products with established standards or norms through local or regional recognised testing laboratories and the skill of individual local practitioners.

6.5 Participatory pre-survey method Major objectives of the TaQSolRE project, the implementation of QA procedures in PV electrification programmes and the formulation of strategies to increase the confidence in PV Stand Alone Systems, requires better understanding in the quality perception of the various actors.

A preliminary analysis was necessary and has been done during the first phase of the project to investigate the stakeholders interests in QA procedures. After identification of the key stakeholders in the usual delivery chain of PV systems, IED has developed a participatory pre-survey method (see following figure). It allows a meticulous analyse of problems encountered by stakeholders in RE programme implementation and reasons of lack of confidence. Their interest in QA process (quality concept, standards, quality control, quality assurance, procedures, …) is not trivial.

A template with indicative points has been used as guideline for oral discussions and interview with stakeholders. This pre-survey has been conducted by IED in 2003 through expert contacts and through field trip in Kenya, Burkina Faso and Mauritania.

Quality Assesment and Strategyto increase PV Confidence

Project parameters- operation status- Reliability- Performances- User Satisfaction

Data base designData Collection :

- Litterature- ongoing projects

Project Analysis

Identification of QAProblems :

- stakeholders identific.- pre-questionnairedesign

Pre-survey :- surveying method- targeted contacts- data collection

Analysis :- list of QA interests

Analysis per Stakeholder

QA Surveyparameters :

- key indicators- for each stakholder

PV QualityAnalysis

Thematical Analysis

Analysis of existing evaluation reports

Follow up &Monitoring :

- software

Monitoring DataCollection :

- ongoing projects

Surveyquestionnaire

design

Survey DataCollection :

- ongoing projects

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6.6 Identification of interest in QA for different stakeholders Each of the stakeholders involved in solar rural electrification have their own interest in relation to quality aspects. These objectives do not necessarily have to be in line with each other [Hankins et al, 2002]. For a PV consumer, the main objective of a QA procedure is to increase his satisfaction, usually in the long term, but sometimes also in the medium or short term. QA should inform and help consumers to choose best price/quality product. For Private operators, the main objective is to make profit or to take benefits in developing business and increasing sales. Whereas Public institutions are expecting higher effectiveness of the project and to get “value for money”. Finally the Funding agencies are in priority oriented to reduce as much as possible the financial risk of introducing PV technology in remote areas and to optimally use the funding. A more detailed investigation of the stakeholders’ interests is presented hereafter. The underlying principle in the use of QA systems is to improve reliability and performance of PV solar systems that will have repercussions throughout the length of the supply chain and impacts on each stakeholders category. Information dissemination at each stakeholders level about end-users needs, PV technology, product quality, existing certificates and labels, etc. is of the utmost importance. Technical guidelines and manuals on PV systems should be available for each group of stakeholders [BCEOM, 2001]. A list of interests in quality assurance have been worked out from the pre-surveys and key questions have been translated in terms of needs or requirements for each stakeholders (see the following tables).

Sectors Stakeholders Major interests

End users cash buyer least costcredit buyer least costhire/purchase buyer system service lifefee-for-service user system service life; no extra cost; O&M easiness

Private operators manufacturer profit; production volume; price/perform. ratioditributor/dealer/vendor profit; sales volume installer/contractor profit; # of installation; easiness of installationconsultant/project developer profit; price/perform. ratio; system service life (over the project duration)local operator (in projects) profit; max.income with min. effort; local prestige; syst. service lifeinvestor profit; return on investment; price/perform. ratio; syst. service life

Public institutions gov't RE sector (Min., Agency) least-cost RE options; international funded projects; syst. service liferegulatory body for RE planning : acceptable alternative to conventional options (grid…)

for Bureaus of Standards : consumer protectionutility Ultimate investment recovery; least-cost RE options; price/perform. ratiolocal administration satisfy local electorate (political); total repayment in financing schemesproject developer (NGO, …) electrify project's villagers; system perform. & service life; cost recoverytesting lab./research institute consumer protection; technical evaluation of systems/components

Financing sector international donor optimal use of funding; reduced risks (techn.+ financial)national donor optimal use of funding; reduced risks (techn.+ financial)financial institution reduced risks (financial); system service life (beyond loan period);

(dev.bank, dev.org., ngo, …) syst. resale value (collateral)

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In the next table, major tools or instruments are proposed to enhance quality and to achieve required quality level at each stage of the delivery chain: standards, certification, labelling, warranties, guidelines, best practices guides, training, testing infrastructure, service contracts, monitoring and feed-back (MIS) and technical assistance. Some of those instruments have already been presented in the previous § 1.2.3.

6.6.1 Users of solar systems Users of domestic solar systems primarily expect electricity services at the least cost and they are not aware about quality aspects. Only informed consumers are looking for the best price/quality product. The user of a PV system in a fee-for-service scheme is the least concerned by hardware quality as he is paying for a guarantied service, contrary to buyers (cash, credit). In lease-purchase schemes, PV users usually stop instalments as soon as they become dissatisfied with the quality, thereby shifting risks to the project implementers. But all of them are sensitive to service quality. Rural people want electricity to light their houses and power their radio; they don’t want specifically a PV product [Marsh G., 2003]. A PV project in developing countries can benefit from local market surveys to gather useful information about the characteristics of PV purchasers and their needs [The World Bank, 2003]. But direct feed backs from field experience are also worthwhile. Service should be reliable and not be interrupted prematurely and unexpectedly. Risks for having to pay for large extra expenditures should be as low as possible. This implies requiring a long component life, especially for the battery. The equipment must be safe and should not provide any unwanted side effects such as noise and EMC. Easy operation and maintenance is important. Provision of reliable and honest information on system performance before households obtain their systems is essential to prevent unrealistic expectations and inappropriate usage.

Sectors Stakeholders

need

squ

ality

of r

aw

mat

eria

l &

com

pone

nts

inho

use

& e

nd

prod

uct q

ualit

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res

qual

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f PV

sy

stem

s

war

rant

ies

on

prod

ucts

qual

ity o

f ins

talla

tion

qual

ity o

f tra

inin

g

qual

ity o

f afte

r sal

es

serv

ices

war

rant

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on

serv

ices

PV

tech

nica

l adv

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qual

ity m

anag

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t pr

oced

ures

End users cash buyer x x xcredit buyer x x xhire/purchase buyer x x x x x xfee-for-service user x x x x x x

Private operators manufacturer x x xditributor/dealer/vendor x x x xinstaller/contractor x x x x x x xconsultant/project developer x x x x x xlocal operator (in projects) x x x x xinvestor x x x x

Public institutions gov't RE sector (Min., Agency) x x x x xregulatory body x x x x x x

utility x x x x x x xlocal administration x x xproject developer (NGO, …) x x x x x x x xtesting lab./research institute - - - - - - - - - -

Financing sector international donor x x x x x x x xnational donor x x x x x x x xfinancial institution x x x x x x x x

(dev.bank, dev.org., ngo, …)

NEEDS / REQUIREMENTS

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Nevertheless, it is very difficult for users, especially for buyers, to choose between different PV systems and practitioners (suppliers, dealers, installers) in terms of quality; they are usually reduced to take the cheapest option or to believe the salesman. They haven’t any means or knowledge to assess quality and competency for their PV system installation. Similar assessment problem occurs when the PV system fails; and the consumer, if he is not assisted, will stop to pay the instalments or lose his initial investment. It is interesting also to see the negative reaction of rural people, as in Mauritania, when a project offers a PV module with a label “Made in China”, even if the module is IEC certified. QA procedure should inform and help them to choose the best price/quality product and the appropriated skilled practitioners. The implementation of quality control and standards will also help to protect users from unsafe, in-efficient and short-lived equipment that will certainly lead to disappointment with the solar energy option. The expanse of customer dissatisfaction is the main restraints for PV solar option take-up for rural electrification. In terms of users’ dissatisfaction, the most frequent is the discontinuity in the energy supply either due to solar availability and low quality components, or degradation in performances, bad design, slow response of after sales services, and lack of spare parts. Another frequent reason for dissatisfaction is that the equipment is often undersized and doesn’t meet their real needs. This could be partly solved by certifying good practitioners that will carefully inform consumers about the limitations and the most efficient use of their PV system. Most of SHS projects pre-require from local installers certain warranties on products and services. But for the buyer/end user, the immediate relation between quality/warranty and cost of components is not clear. He has to be convinced that initial extra cost for high quality SHS compared to retail shop prices is really for warranties and servicing (components, after sales services with multiple field inspection visits, … over a certain number of years) and not for windfall profit. The user still has to believe in the authenticity of the certificates, standards, etc. in countries where official papers are often tampered!

6.6.2 Private operators In the solar business in developing countries, many private companies or individuals are in the dilemma to “make money” from their activity and to take care also about social aspects and economical impacts of their activity. Nevertheless, quality concerns are rarely considered as a priority and are considered to generate extra-costs in the overall project. However an appropriate quality assurance system could be beneficial for their business development and might be necessary for those who want to be selected by large programme sponsors, government agencies or development organisations involved in rural electrification. Hardware Manufacturers A favourable ratio between price and quality compared to competitors is one of the main considerations for manufacturers of components for solar systems. Risks for claims under warranty should be limited. Usually there are obligations to meet certain technical requirements to be able to supply under contracts for governments or NGOs, but there is usually no restriction on the retail market. Preventing negative publicity is important, especially related to safety issues but also to early failures. To manage this product quality issue, the local manufacturer should integrate regular in-house controls at different levels (raw material, half-finished product, final product) to avoid off-graded products and to comply with minimum standards. On the other hand, the manufacturer looks also for increasing volumes of production and sales. This means he needs efficient manufacturing processes together with quality control to increase its productivity. Therefore the manufacturer needs recommended guidelines on testing procedures and on quality management.

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With a minimum of efforts and for limited additional cost, the manufacturers can integrate a QA system in their process and propose on the market some reliable PV products and systems. In China for example, thanks to design assistance from outside, some local suppliers have improved their product quality without additional cost, or with even decreasing costs. The main benefit for the manufacturer is to improve his brand image in the long term with reliable products. As soon as the consumer have tools to make the right choice, the manufacturer will be forced to improve the quality of his product and to adopt standards to remain competitive on the market. Quality improvement and business development are closely linked and need to be strengthened simultaneously. For international suppliers, there is a strong interest in having to deal with only a single set of standards, instead of national standards for each market. Ideally, the level of the standards should be just below the quality of their own products. China has for example established technical standards for controllers and inverters that have been accepted by PV GAP and recently submitted to the IEC for international approval. It is interesting to note that an early version of the draft standard didn’t include low voltage disconnection value (LVD) for charge controller. Designers of hardware Depending on the operational supply chain in the project, the designer of components or system can be directly the distributor or the installer but also a developing organisation, a consulting company, a local agency or a public utility. To achieve its quality design task, he needs among other to have qualified staff and to have access to basic information as end-users surveys, PV technology, product quality and existing certificates and labels, etc. Distributors, dealers, vendors One generally agree that there are two predominant schemes for delivery of PV systems in developing countries: either related to development aid projects with specific distribution mechanisms or schemes based on direct commercial sales with vendors and dealers. For the commercial scheme, one can distinguish two main operator categories : the “professional” sector and the “retail/informal” sector. Their target markets and sales, delivery and supply methods are quite distinct from each other. The “professional” sector does a capable job of delivering “quality”. Problems experienced by this sector are just as often due to lack of maintenance planning (i.e. battery replacement) or system misuse by users as they are due to poor installation. The companies that trade in this sector are well-capitalised and have trained staff. They are aware of the after sales services quality and they usually include the cost of delivering systems into the cost equipment sold. Nevertheless they will be much concerned by recommended guidelines on quality management to improve their business. In some case, the local SHS market can be destabilised by unscrupulous dealers/distributors who sell low quality/low price products. Local government might be helpful to assist serious actors to be protected against such dealers/distributors. In Kenya for example, a Renewable Association (KEREA) has been created and serious businesses have signed a code of conduct to become member. Such self-regulation enforced by local authorities could be an efficient and a fast way to regulate the market, and thus also the quality aspects. The retail/informal market presents a number of challenges that should be addressed when setting up a PV program. In many countries, retail consumers were either bringing in systems from outside or purchasing them over the counter in country and installing them themselves. Dealers simply cater to the financial capacity of consumers, without offering “standard” packages. Little technical advice is offered to consumers. Choice of key items such as wire size selection, installation and siting of the module, system interconnection and configuration and batteries are left completely up to the customer. Without proper guidance, is not surprising that most consumer PV systems do not perform correctly and are rapidly gaining a poor reputation.

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Users should be informed about the risk of self-buying and self-installation and they should be advised with specific technical manuals. Nevertheless, in the commercial sector there is less interest in product quality than in development aid projects. They will obviously insist on having product warranties through appropriated documents (contracts), but preventing early failures, also within warranty periods, will help creating consumer confidence especially in new markets. Private companies can survive on the long term only by promoting their brand image for reliable products and qualified services. Service operators: installers and contractors (training, maintenance, repairing) As private companies looking for profit, installers aim to increase their number of installations, often to the detriment of the quality. The easiness of installation by using well designed products (electronic protections, easy connectors, coded cables, and simple manual) might be one of their prior interests, but nevertheless PV components should be warranted and systems should be certified. For the reliability and performance of the PV installation, it is of the utmost importance that service operators have a recognised knowledge and adequate skills. More and more development organisations will require practitioner certificates for their participation. It has been demonstrated that many PV system failures in developing countries are still due to technical barriers, as improper installation or maintenance. The direct benefit of certification process for the service operator is the reduction of frequency and costs for maintenance and after-sales services. It is a major concern to plan specific training for service operators and to develop “professional consciousness” in their daily activity. The notion of “rule book” (Règles de l’Art) remains usually very abstract in many countries, and recommended/approved guidelines on installation and after-sales services are of a great importance for quality assurance. Appropriated infrastructures should be devoted to accreditation and certification of practitioners. Under the World Bank coordinated QuaP-PV project, training manuals and certification programmes have already been prepared and field-tested in four quality areas: Q of design, Q of manufacturing, Q of test labs and Q of installation and maintenance [World Bank 2000b]. Certification of practitioners should definitely concern individuals and not companies; the instability of solar market in developing countries often push the company managers to recruit non permanent and inexperienced staff for selective project. Nevertheless, service companies should also integrate quality management procedure, following approved guidelines. Those practitioners are in close relation with the end-users and play an very important role in informing and training the consumers about the use, the maintenance and the limitations of PV systems. The certification process will improve the know-how transfer and troubleshooting identification when systems failed. Consultants and project developers Consultants, together with private project developers, have direct interests in promoting low cost rural electrification options that have good performances and a service life at least longer than the project duration. In other words, they preferentially look for systems with a low price/performance ratio. To integrate quality assurance procedures in their management, they require on the one hand standards and specifications on PV systems, installation and training, warranties on after-sales services, and on the other hand specific guidelines on quality management. Local operators Local operators are usually actors in national projects for various tasks as local infrastructure management, follow-up, monitoring, recovering, etc. Depending on the type of contract they

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have, their main interest might be to earn a maximum of money with least possible effort and/or to have a prestigious position in the village. Those interests usually dominate the PV system reliability and service life. Nevertheless they need to be informed and advised about quality issues to satisfy the end-users that make their business possible. Therefore, they will require warranties on products and services through certification process, accredited after-sales services and spare parts management. Some direct benefits of a certification process are the reduction of the time spent for money collection and the higher collection rates, considering that users will be less reluctant to pay for a reliable service. Private investors The major concern of an investor is of course to assure the return on his investment. If the quality of the system is poor, the risk is to face power shortage or discontinuity and afterwards interruption of instalment. The investor should therefore give priority to the quality of components and the system service life against the lowest possible price option.

6.6.3 Public institutions Governments and utilities Government Rural Electrification sector, including ministries and agencies, is firstly concerned by the selection of least cost electrification options for their RE programmes: Are Solar Home Systems an acceptable alternative to grid extension in terms of service quality and cost? One usually counts a whole areas as electrified if there are just a few grid connections for each administrative village. But rural electrification targets that aim to provide access to electricity services to the rural population at large can be achieved more easily when PV solar systems can be included. Their major interest is to implement effective RE projects if possible with international funding. The “effectiveness” of a project is directly linked to the price-performance ratio for products and services. Therefore, as all project developers, they look on the one hand for system reliability and service life beyond the loan period, and on the other hand for least-cost options. In several countries, local government ministries are closely involved in the planning and the implementation of PV systems for rural electrification programmes. Although renewable energy policies on the national level are not always very clear, these ministries are key actors in QA system promotion because they are either directly or indirectly responsible to the funding organisation upstream and the beneficiaries of the programmes downstream. They can for example integrate quality requirements (standards, certification, accreditation) in the official tender documents (terms of reference). Heavy bureaucratic administrative procedures should definitely be avoided to allow short reaction time when problems occur. As mentioned before, it is crucial (i) to develop a simple quality control procedure in order to check regularly the compliance of the realisations with the requirements and (ii) to point out – or to create if necessary – an independent infrastructure that will be in charge of this regular quality control of the PV components, the installations and the associated services. Those infrastructures in addition to the technical tests will certify key PV components. To have an efficient and sustainable testing facility, one should not neglect the necessary investments for the infrastructure establishment, the testing equipment and the specific personal training. To be recognised world-wide as an approved testing laboratory and to be assured that the tests will be internationally accepted, the testing infrastructure should improve its internal capabilities by specific training and international expert assistance. ISO-25 accreditation has been implemented

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for “Quality Labelling” purpose (*). Monitoring, follow-up and equipment testing of PV programmes will require other continuous additional costs that should be taken into account. In many cases, the local private sector (sales and marketing, installation and services) is rather weak in terms of financial capacity and personal skills. Even if “soft” standard levels are established, it might happen that none of local private companies could comply with requirements. Thus, any QA procedure implementation should be worked out with the participation of key stakeholders (suppliers, dealers, testing labs, international experts, …) and should necessarily be accompanied with private sector capacity reinforcement. Specifying the requirement of quality components, training and practitioner systems contribute already to the local capacity development. In practice, tenders usually aim at the lowest cost for a certain minimum level of quality. In some countries a local photovoltaic industry exists that is supported by government policy measures to promoting domestic industrial production. In these cases, too high standards are not beneficial for the local industry. Safety and consumer protection are often important aspects of government regulation (Bureau of Standards). Project developers Development aid projects often focus on achieving quantitative distribution targets for the lowest project related cost. Equipment cost is usually born by others. Any claims, even within the warranty period have to be prevented as much as possible because of the negative publicity that may effect achieving project targets. Project developers have an interest in the highest possible quality. Equipment cost and price/quality aspects are usually considerations of lesser importance, provided one has substantial subsidies. However a side effect of a highly subsidised PV projects is the risk of emerging a flourishing retail or resell market where quality becomes uncontrollable. Before to undertake the work, project developers (NGO, development organisation, …) have a more objective means to evaluate the skills of the candidates when they are pre-qualified or certified. QA systems are also appreciated in this sector because their implementation often simplify document and formalise the work processes which are usually already in place in the organisation. Development aid projects encounter often a quality problem in the medium/long term, after the project duration. For example one come across manufacturers that win a contract to install a large number of PV systems, open a subsidiary in the country in question (to qualify for the contract) and then when the programme ends they close their subsidiary, leaving their systems without any backup or support mechanism in place. Local administration In PV systems diffusion projects, administrations in the villages are often involved in the financial scheme as moral guarantor for the a total repayment. Their prior interest is political as they want to satisfy their electorate. They are not closely concerned by quality assurance but warranties on products and services are definitely required to meet end-users’ expectations.

* Accreditation to ISO 25 (ANSI/NCSL Z540-1 in the United States) requires that a laboratory have a quality system similar to ISO 9000. More important, it also requires that a lab facility have adequate equipment to perform its testing or calibration tasks, as well as laboratory personnel with the competence to perform the testing. Therefore, ISO 25 is a recognition of laboratory competence, while ISO 9000 alone is simply a recognition of conformance to a quality system.

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6.6.4 Funding sector The financing sector, including national and international donors (institutions, agencies, development organisation, NGO, etc.), is often reluctant to support PV technology projects given that the financial risk is very high; this is mainly due to slow return on high initial investment and to the low income level of the beneficiary group. Even if they are not experienced in PV project, those financing organisations are usually aware that many PV installations around the world are not reliable, have at the end poor performances and lead to user dissatisfaction. They immediately perceive the risk that “rural poor” will not pay back the investment or its foreseen contribution if the electrification service is not satisfactory. Therefore it is understandable that the financial sector does not make loans easily available for this rural PV supply sector. An other complaint often encountered by this sector is their inaptitude to evaluate the capability of the organisations (or individuals) requesting the funds and to evaluate the quality of the equipment proposed and the competence of the practitioners. To overcome those restraints and to bear financial sector to play its role in the provision of renewable energy services for rural communities, one should develop quality assurance system that includes standards, licences, certifications and specific documentation/guidelines to provide a basis for conventional risk analysis in evaluating loans and investment opportunities for PV projects. This quality assurance framework should allow them to evaluate the qualification of all the actors concerned by the funding and involved in the supply chain. Once they have decided to invest in PV technology project, their first preoccupation is to have an optimal use of the funding, to get “value from money”; it means that they need all tools that can improve the effectiveness of the project and the end-user satisfaction : warranties, certificates, standards on products and services, manuals, guidelines, standard documents, … The donor or the lender will take the financial risk only if he is sure that the PV system is of good quality, has a real “resale value” (as collateral) and that he can easily bring back the PV systems when customers stop to pay (for any other reasons than “quality”).

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