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Reliability Must-Run Analysis 2006 – 2015 4 th BTA Presentation. Bob Smith Manager Transmission Planning June 6, 2006. Outline of Presentation. 2006 RMR Study Process Description of network and constraint SIL/MLSC determination RMR - demand, energy and duration - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Reliability Must-Run Analysis2006 – 20154th BTA Presentation
Bob Smith
Manager Transmission Planning
June 6, 2006
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 2
Outline of Presentation 2006 RMR Study Process Description of network and constraint SIL/MLSC determination RMR - demand, energy and duration Economic impact of transmission constraint Observations Comparison of RMR Studies to FERC SIL
Studies
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 3
2006 RMR Study Process Transmission Provider Coordination
January 21, 2005 meeting to coordinate plan Decision to study 2008 and 2015
SSG-WI cases to be developed
Basic Case Development SWAT Involvement
Approve study plan May 4, 2005 Update on study August 23 and October 25 Preliminary results presentation Jan 17, 2006
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 4
RMR Economic Analysis ABB GridView production-cost simulator Entire WECC modeled Hourly least cost dispatch with transmission
constraints Annual cost to serve area load determined Study repeated ignoring local import limit Difference is the RMR cost Environmental impact determined for each
generator using emission rates
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 5
Phoenix Area Load 2008
Westwing500KV
230KV
Surprise
Lone Peak Cactus Ocotillo
230KV
345KV
Pinnacle Peak
500KV
Rudd
Kyrene
500KV
PaloVerde/
Hassayampa
GilaRiver
Reach
500KV
230KV
Deer Valley
Brandow (2)Papago Butte
Rogers (2)
69Kv (3)
69Kv
Gavilan Peak
(3)
Agua Fria
DeerValley
69Kv (2)
Raceway
(4)
(2)
230KV
Buckeye
TS4
Liberty
230KV69Kv
Knox
500KV(2)
230KV
Browning
500KV
230KVSilverKing
Jojoba
(2)
(2)
Hayden
Kearny Tap
115KV
SpookHill
Coolidge
230KV
PhoenixArea Load
Phoenix AreaLoad (2008)
Critical Outage Limiting Element
Jojoba-Kyrene 500kV
Kyrene-Corbell 230kV
West Phoenix-Lincoln Street 230kV
Agua Fria-Glendale 230kV
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 6
2008 Phoenix Load Serving Capability
3674, 13860
2583, 12625
0, 9700
12625
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Valley Generation (MW)
Va
lle
y L
oa
d (
MW
)
2008 LSC Forecasted Peak Load
Jojoba-Kyrene 500kV OutageKyrene-Corbell 230kV Line
Safe Operating Area
West Phoenix-Lincoln Street 230kV OutageAgua Fria-Glendale 230kV Line
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 7
2008 Phoenix Load Durationand RMR ConditionsPHOENIX LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2008)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
HOURS
LO
AD
(M
W)
VALLEY LOAD
Total Valley Energy = 56,651 GWH
845 HOURS
PEAK = 12,625 MW
SIL = 9700 MW
650 GWH
2583 MW
10042 MW
8
2008 Phoenix Area Energy
Load Requiring no RMR, 56,001
GWh, 99%
RMR Energy "in the money", 637
GWh, 1%
RMR Energy "outside of economic
dispatch", 13 GWh, 0%
Phoenix Area Total Load = 56,651 GWh
$0M incremental cost
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 9
Phoenix Area Load 2015
Westwing500kV
230kV
Surprise
Lone Peak Cactus Ocotillo
230kV
345kVPinnacle Peak
500kV
Rudd
Kyrene
500kV
PaloVerde/
Hassayampa
GilaRiver
Reach
500kV
230kV
Deer Valley
Brandow (2)Papago Butte
Rogers (2)
69kV (4)
69kV (2)
Gavilan Peak
(3)
Agua Fria
DeerValley
69kV (2)
Raceway
(4)
(3)
230KV
Buckeye
TS4
Liberty
230kV
69kV
Knox
500kV
230kV
Browning
500kV
230kVSilverKing
Jojoba
(2)
(2)
Hayden
Kearny Tap
115kV
SpookHill
Coolidge
230kV
PhoenixArea Load
Phoenix AreaLoad (2015)
500kV 230kV
TS5
500kV(3)
230kV
South EastValley
TS669kV (2)
Avery
TS1
500kV(3)
500kV
230kV
(2)
Critical Outage Limiting Element
Jojoba-Kyrene 500kV
Voltage Instability
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 10
2015 Phoenix Load Serving Capability
3674, 17051
2811, 16100
0, 13004
16100
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
17500
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Valley Generation (MW)
Valley L
oad
(M
W)
2015 LSC Forecasted Peak Load
Jojoba-Kyrene 500kV OutageVoltage instability
Safe Operating Area
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 11
2015 Phoenix Load Durationand RMR Conditions
PHOENIX LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2015)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
HOURS
LO
AD
(M
W)
VALLEY LOAD
Total Valley Energy = 72,083 GWH
548 HOURS
PEAK = 16,100 MW
SIL = 13,004 MW
419 GWH2,811 MW
13289 MW
12
2015 Phoenix Area Energy
Load Requiring no RMR, 71,664
GWh, 99%
RMR Energy "out of the money", 2
GWh, 0%
RMR Energy "in the money", 417
GWh, 1%
Phoenix Area Total Load = 72,083 GWh
$0M incremental cost
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 13
Expected Phoenix Reserves
951 MW
1235 MW
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2008 Expected Reserves 2015 Expected Reserves
Valley G
en
era
tio
n (
MW
)
Desired Reserves: 865 MW
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 14
Phoenix RMR Observations APS load is expected to exceed import capability for
845 hours in 2008, and 548 hours in 2015. RMR energy represents approximately 1% of the total energy.
The projected reserves in both 2008 and 2015 are greater than the 99% reliability reserve requirement of 865 MW.
Cost to run local generation outside of economic dispatch is less than $1M in both 2008 and 2015.
Expected RMR costs do not justify Construction costs to relieve RMR requirements.
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 15
2008 Yuma Transmission System
YCA
Knob
El Centro
Pilot Knob
161/69 KV
GT2 GT1
GT4 GT3ST1
Yucca
Cocopah
QF1
Riverside
Mittry
525/69 KVN.Gila
ImperialValley
Hassayampa
10 Streetth
Quechan
Ivalon
32 Streetnd
161/69 KV
GilaN.O.
Araby
Foothills
Marine AirBase
Laguna
San Luis
CFE (emergency tie)
161/69 KV69/34.5 KV
Sonora500 kV
161 kV
69 kV & below
Yuma Transmission System-2008
Metering point for the Yuma area load pocketTony\BLK/YumaCut
New
TS8
Critical Outage: Hassayampa-N.G. 500kVLimiting Element: Pilot Knob-Yucca 161kV
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 16
2008 Yuma Load Serving Capability
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Yuma Generation (MW)
Yum
a Lo
ad (M
W)
Forecast = 426 MW
0, 264
229, 540369, 545
134,426
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 17
2008 Yuma Load Durationand RMR Conditions
YUMA LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2008)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
HOURS
LO
AD
(M
W)
YUMA LOAD
Total Yuma Energy = 1,892 GWH
1703 HOURS
PEAK = 426 MW
SIL = 264 MW
134 MW
75 GWH
292 MW
18
2008 APS Yuma Energy
Load Requiring no RMR, 1,817
GWh, 97%RMR Energy "out of the money",
47 GWh, 2%
RMR Energy "in the money", 28
GWh, 1%
APS Yuma Area Total Load = 1,892 GWh
$1.3M incremental cost
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 19
2015 Yuma Transmission System
YCA
Knob
El Centro
Pilot Knob
161/69 KV
GT2 GT1
GT4 GT3ST1
Yucca
Cocopah
QF1
Riverside
Mittry
525/69 KV
N.Gila
ImperialValley
Hassayampa
10 Streetth
Quechan
Ivalon
32 Streetnd
161/69 KV
Gila
Araby
Foothills
Marine AirBase
Laguna
San Luis
CFE (emergency tie)
161/69 KV69/34.5 KV
Sonora500 kV
161 Kv & above
69 kV & below
Yuma Transmission System-2015
Metering point for the Yuma area load pocketTony\BLK/YumaCut
New
TS8
525/230 KV
Critical Outage: Cocopah-Riverside 69kVLimiting Element: Riverside-10th Street 69kV
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 20
2015 Yuma Load Serving Capability
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Yuma Generation (MW)
Yum
a Lo
ad (M
W) Forecast = 563 MW
0, 453
322, 826
95, 563
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 21
2015 Yuma Load Durationand RMR Conditions
YUMA LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2015)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
HOURS
LO
AD
(M
W)
YUMA LOAD
Total Yuma Energy = 2,492 GWH
553 HOURS
PEAK = 563 MW
SIL = 453 MW
95 MW 14 GWH
468 MW
22
2015 APS Yuma Energy
Load Requiring no RMR, 2,478
GWh, 100%RMR Energy "out
of the money", 2.8 GWh, 0%
RMR Energy "in the money", 11.2
GWh, 0%
APS Yuma Area Total Load = 2,492 GWh
$0M incremental cost
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 23
Expected Yuma Reserves270 MW
231 MW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 Expected Reserves 2015 Expected Reserves
Yu
ma G
en
era
tio
n (
MW
)
Desired Reserves: 138 MW
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 24
Yuma RMR Observations Yuma load is expected to exceed import capability for
1,703 hours in 2008, and 553 hours in 2015. The projected reserves in both 2008 and 2015 are
greater than the 99% reliability reserve requirement of 138 MW.
Cost to run local generation outside of economic dispatch is $1.3M in 2008 and less than $1M in 2015.
Addition of 100mw of generation in Yuma in 2008 and a new 500kV line from the PV area to North Gila and a 230kV line from North Gila into the Yuma load area effectively manage RMR conditions.
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 25
Overall RMR Observations Benefits of local generation
Increase reliability Local voltage support Contingency response Operating flexibility
Reduced losses Lower transmission investment
26
ACC RMR Studies Compared to FERC SIL Studies
SELIGMAN
ROUNDVALLEY
POWER PLANT
115KV & ABOVE SUBSTATION (EXISTING)
LEGEND
NORTH
SAGUARO
N.GILA
PALO VERDE-HASSAYAMPA
YUCCA
GILA BEND
TO CALIF.500KV
REDHAWK
JOJOBA
GILA RIVER
RUDD
LIBERTYKYRENE
SANTAROSA
DESERTBASIN
WESTWING
YAVAPAI VERDE
PINNACLE PEAK
PREACHERCANYON
CHOLLA
TO CALIF.
TOCRYSTAL
TO MEAD /MARKETPLACE
MOENKOPI
NAVAJO
FOURCORNERS
TUCSON
5/23/06Transmission Planning
COCONINO
Substation locations and line routings depict an electrical connection only anddo not reflect any assumed physical locations or routing.
CASAGRANDE
TAT MOMOLI
KNOX
GAVILANPEAK
FLAGSTAFF
GLEN CANYON
EXISTING 500 KV LINESEXISTING 345 KV LINESEXISTING 230 KV LINESEXISTING 115 KV LINES
NUCLEAR POWER PLANT
CORONADO
BROWNINGSILVERKING
RMR Load Pockets
APS control area used for FERC SIL
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 27
ACC RMR Studies Compared to FERC SIL Studies ACC RMR Studies
Load Pockets Phoenix - Combined APS/SRP Yuma
SIL Load Pocket import capability with no generation
FERC SIL Studies Control Area simultaneous import limit
Decrease internal control area generation Increase external control area generation Stop when reach reliability limit
June 6, 2006 4th BTA 28
ACC RMR Studies Compared to FERC SIL Studies FERC SIL Studies (cont.)
Issues FERC methodology not consistent with operations in
Western Interconnection TTC calculation Oasis posting
Scaling of generation Uniform vs. maximize imports
RMR limits for Phoenix & Yuma used in SIL Study FERC did not have issues with Phoenix & Yuma
RMR limits