Measuring Public Governance

BALKAN BAROMETER 2016

Erhan Turbedar, PhD

RCC, Senior Political Advisor

23 June 2016

REGIONAL COOPERATION COUNCIL (RCC)

INTRODUCTION

The Balkan Barometer the first comprehensive effort of its kind, developed by RCC to measure attitudes,

experiences and perceptions in SEE on a range of issues, sectors and policy areas. a tool that rounds up the views of general public and the business community on a

variety of issues addressed by SEE 2020 Strategy.

one of RCC`s annual monitoring tools used to track progress on the SEE Strategy implementation.

an easy-to-access source of information. The web page of RCC (www.rcc.int) permits

download of both components of the Balkan Barometer - the Public Opinion Survey and Business Opinion Survey - as well as their datasets.

TARGET GROUPS - SAMPLES: Public Opinion Survey: Conducted among N = 1000 respondents in each economy, aged 18+ (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo*, Montenegro, Serbia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, including Moldova); a stratified two-stage clustered design sample with random route for the selection of addresses and respondents (last birthday method) was used. Business Opinion Survey: Conducted on the N=200 companies for each economy (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo*, Montenegro, Serbia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, including Moldova and Slovenia); nationally representative for companies that are not state owned and in business more then two years; Respondents: member of company management team. This year the Balkan Barometer has been expanded to include general public and the business community of Moldova and the business community of Slovenia. Our intention is to provide greater understanding of similarities and differences between Moldova and Slovenia on one hand, and the SEE 2020 economies on the other, with the aim of bringing their markets closer to each other. We will continue with similar practice in the future, by including other economies of the wider South East European region into the Balkan Barometer.

P: What do you think are the two most important problems facing your

economy? (All respondents - N=7002, share of total, %)

67 69 71

69 72

69

50

68

65 60

57

37

45

52

44

55

25

35

24

47

29 27

15

27

3 7

12

17

12 9

20

9

4 7 7

2 3 4 4 5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Serbia Albania Croatia Kosovo* Bosnia andHerzegovina

Montenegro The FormerYugoslav Republic

of Macedonia

SEE

Unemployment Economic situation Corruption Crime

Political disputes Brain drain/emigration Judicial system Refugees

Security issues/terrorism Protection of human rights Climate change (floods, droughts etc.) Problems with minorities

Border issues

*This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

P: How would you grade the following issues (SEE region) (All respondents - N=7002, scores are on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means very poor and 5 excellent)

2015 2016

Transparency of public services 2,50 2,64

Treatment of citizens in public

sector 2,46 2,58

Time required for obtaining

public services 2,37 2,47

Time required for getting

information in public sector 2,32 2,44

Price of public services 2,20 2,20

The satisfaction with public services is low. Compared to previous survey small increase in ratings…

P: Do you agree: (SEE region) (All respondents - N=7002, SEE region, share of total, %)

The majority disagree with all statements relating to the law and the judicial system: 83% disagree with

the statement that the law is applied to everyone equally, 78% disagree with the statement that judicial

system is independent from political influence and 75% disagree with the statement that the law is

applied and enforced effectively.

24

37 42

48

34

38 36

35

33

19 14 12

4 2 3 2 5 4 5 3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

that the administrativeprocedures in public

institutions are efficient?

that the law is applied andenforced effectively?

that judicial system isindependent from political

influence?

that the law is applied toeveryone equally?

DK/refuse Totally agree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Totally disagree

P: Do you have confidence in courts and the judiciary? (All respondents - N=7002, share of total, %)

45 36

49

29 28 25 23 35

36

41 27

38 39 36

27

36

16 21 18 24 27

31

35

22

1 2 1 3

4 6

7 3

2 1 4 6 2 1 7 4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Albania Croatia Bosnia andHerzegovina

Serbia Kosovo* The FormerYugoslav

Republic ofMacedonia

Montenegro SEE

DK/refuse I have full confidence Mostly I have confidence

Mostly I do not have confidence I do not have confidence at all

Most of the SEE population does not have confidence in the judiciary and the legal system. Only 25% have confidence, but among them only 3% have full confidence in the judiciary and the legal system (In previous survey 27% of the SEE population had confidence in courts and judiciary)

P: Do you think that the giving and taking of bribes, and the abuse of position and power for

personal gain, are widespread among any of the following? (All respondents - N=7002, maximum two answers, share of total, %)

40

21

36

21

36

52

18

32

23

38

23

20 22

13

26 26

35

17

25

15

23

15

12

22

17 17

10

20

14

40

12

18

11

25 28

10 10

5

27

18 17

21

15 16 16

12 13

17 14

6 8

6

25 24

5

11

6

13

9

16 13

12

16

11

6 3 4

10 9 12

7 6 4 4

2

8

14

5 7

5 2

5 3

7 6 4

6 4

1 1 2 5

0 2

6

11

8

15

5 2

19

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Croatia Serbia Bosnia andHerzegovina

The FormerYugoslav Republic

of Macedonia

Kosovo* Albania Montenegro SEE

Politicians at national level People working in the public health sectorPoliticians at local level People working in judicial servicesPolice Inspectors (health,construction,food quality,sanitary control and licensing)Officials awarding public tenders People working in the customs serviceOfficials issuing building permits Officials issuing business permitsPeople working in the education sector Other

At the level of the SEE region, similar to previous survey, it is considered that giving or taking of bribes and the abuse of power for personal gain is the most widespread among politicians at the national (32%) and local (22%) levels, and among people working in the health sector (26%).

P: Do you agree that your government fights effectively against corruption? (All respondents - N=7002, share of total, %)

25 33 30

25 36

50 60

36

30 24

39 40

44

33

27

37

34 26

26 23

18 13 9

20

7 6

3

3

1 2 1 3 4

10 2

8 1 2 3 4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

The FormerYugoslav

Republic ofMacedonia

Montenegro Albania Serbia Croatia Kosovo* Bosnia andHerzegovina

SEE

DK/refuse Totally agree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Totally disagree

The majority of the SEE population do not consider that their government effectively fights corruption (73%). (SEE - 73%, EU - 64%)

P: Have you ever done something that could affect any of the government

decisions? (All respondents - N=7002, share of total, %)

5 5 5 8

14

7 7 6 5

2 2

8 8 7

4 4 2

1 4 3

6

3 4 3

44

32

23

39

25

39

24

33

41

51

57

34

41

37

54

46

3

9 10 8

6 6 8 7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Croatia Serbia Bosnia andHerzegovina

The FormerYugoslav

Republic ofMacedonia

Kosovo* Albania Montenegro SEE

Yes, in protest Yes, comments on social networks Yes, in public debate

Only discuss, not publicly decleared do not even discuss DK/refuse

46% of the entire population do not even discuss the government’s decisions while 33% discuss only with people they know, not publicly. Only 6% of them protested, 4% commented the government’s decisions on social networks and 3% participated in public debate.

The most common reason for the lack of active involvement in government decision making is the opinion that an individual cannot influence government decisions (50% of those who are not actively involved). There are 22% of those who do not want to be publicly exposed while 21% do not care about government decisions.

B: How much do you feel the government takes into account the concerns of

businesses? (All respondents - N=1404, share of total, %)

1

5

2

1

2

1

3

7

5

10

11

22

21

9

55

36

32

52

59

42

44

49

37

54

56

36

24

32

30

38

4

4

1

1

4

2

4

3

Serbia

Kosovo*

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Croatia

Montenegro

Albania

The Former YugoslavRepublic of Macedonia

SEE

Very much Quite a lot A little Not at all DK/NA

Half of SEE companies agree the government takes care of businesses to a small degree. However, the worrying fact is that almost two fifths (38%) think that government pays no attention at all to their businesses.

B: Agreement with the statement - Information on laws and regulations

affecting my firm is easy to obtain? (All respondents - N=1404, scores are on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means completely disagree and 5 strongly agree, mean)

3 2 8

3 6 8 2 6

10 11

12

9 10

12

11 11

19 31 16

19

22 24 39

23

46 29 33

57

34

31 36

35

21 24 29

10

24 24

11

23

1 3 1 4 3 2 2

3,7 3,7 3,6

3,6 3,6 3,5 3,4

3,6

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Alb

ania

Monte

negro

Bosn

ia a

nd

Herz

egovin

a

The F

orm

er

Yugosl

av R

epublic

of

Macedonia

Serb

ia

Cro

ati

a

Koso

vo*

SEE

DK/NA Strongly agree

Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree

Tend to disagree Completely disagree

Mean

Business leaders in the SEE region can get information on laws and regulations relevant for their company (the average score is 3.6) more easily than they did last year (3.4).

B: Agreement with the statement - Interpretations of laws and regulations

affecting my firm are consistent and predictable? (All respondents - N=1404, scores are on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means completely disagree and 5 strongly agree, mean)

4 3 3 6 11

16 22

14 9 14 12 14

15

19

20

17 25

30 40

38 27 22

25

27

50 39

36 25 33 27 18

28

9 13 8 13 10 14 14 12

5 1 2 4 3 2 1 2

3,5 3,5 3,3 3,3 3,2

3,0 2,8

3,1

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

The F

orm

er

Yugosl

av R

epublic

of

Macedonia

Alb

ania

Koso

vo*

Monte

negro

Serb

ia

Bosn

ia a

nd

Herz

egovin

a

Cro

ati

a

SEE

DK/NA Strongly agree

Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree

Tend to disagree Completely disagree

Mean

Compared with the previous survey (the average score was 2.9), business people in the region are more satisfied with the predictability and consistency of interpretations of relevant laws and regulations (the average score is 3.1).

B: Agreement with the statement: It is common for firms in my line of business to

have to pay some irregular “additional payments/gifts” to ‘’get things done” (All respondents - N=1404, scores are on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means completely disagree and 5 strongly agree, mean)

23 19 22 32

27 17

52

28

9 21 19

15 14

29

25

17 18

29 21

17 18 14

9

18

21

23

19 21

12 16

11

19 15

8

5

10

9 2

3

8

14

2

14 5

20 23

1 10

3,0 2,8 2,6

2,6 2,5 2,5

1,9

2,6

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Bosn

ia a

nd

Herz

egovin

a

Koso

vo*

Serb

ia

Cro

ati

a

Monte

negro

The F

orm

er

Yugosl

av R

epublic

of

Macedonia

Alb

ania

SEE

DK/NA Strongly agree

Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree

Tend to disagree Completely disagree

Mean

Compared to last year, a significantly greater number of business people in the SEE region is certain of the existence of irregular “additional payments or gifts” to “get things done”(the average score is 2.6 compared to 2.3 in previous survey).

Concluding remarks Credibility of public institutions is low. Dissatisfaction with the efficiency and

fairness of the public institutions continues to be high.

Governance is perceived as the main obstacle to growth and development.

Corruption is seen to be quite widespread. Citizens do not see nor recognize efforts of respective governments in fighting corruption. They expect much more to be done.

The business environment is not sufficiently supportive. There are complaints regarding the accessibility of information, responsiveness of the governments, and about the predictability of laws and regulations affecting businesses.

THANK YOU!