PV impact on TEP load

Real-Time PV Power ForecastingWill HolmgrenPostdoctoral Research AssistantDepartment of PhysicsUniversity of ArizonaAlex Cronin, Associate Professor, PhysicsAntonio Lorenzo, Grad Student, Opt. Sci.

Eric Betterton, Dept. Head, Atmo. Sci.Mike Leuthold, Meteorologist, Atmo. Sci.Chang Ki Kim, Post doc, Atmo. Sci.

Ardeth Barnhart, Director, UA-RENRey Granillo, Developer, UA-REN

PV impact on TEP loadCan we achieve high PV penetration and maintain grid stability?Maybe if we have reliable power forecasts!

45 MW / 30 min25 MW / 2 min55 MW / 1 min on 9/26PV Power Variability

Predicting power using PV data

Real-time data sources map+ Springerville+ Black Mountain

TFS to UA 1 min warningTechnicians for SustainabilityLocal PV installerUA Physics andAtmospheric SciencesTFS to UA 1 min warning

TFSUATFS to UA 1 min warning

Retrospective forecasts based on data from 100 rooftopsNetwork-based ForecastsBuilding system to do this in real-time

Retrospective forecasts based on data from 100 rooftopsNetwork-based ForecastsBuilding system to do this in real-time

Hybrid forecastingPV Assets MapACE Scenario SimulationsReserve PolicyPV PowerForecastResource PlanningMarketingOperationsForecast GUIFor UtilitiesIrradiance SensorsDG Metering DataSky CamerasWRF ModelHybrid method forirradiance forecastingUtility Co.Hybrid forecasting utility integrationATMO Wind forecasting for TEP

Solar forecasting for TEP

Correct features, only wrong by 1 hourThis is good!Real time clearness maps

Website for TEP

Website for TEP

Website for TEP