REAL TIME PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS AND June 20, 2017 CORROSION MANAGEMENT ... · REAL TIME PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS AND CORROSION MANAGEMENT WITH PREDICT®-RT Sridhar Srinivasan June 20,

REAL TIME PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS AND

CORROSION MANAGEMENT WITH PREDICT®-RT

Sridhar Srinivasan

June 20, 2017

Honeywell Confidential - © 2017 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.

• Global Business Leader

Corrosion Asset Integrity SolutionsHoneywell International – USA

• Program Leader – Joint Industry Projects related

to refinery / oil & gas applications

• Solution Architect - Predict® and Predict-RT

applications for refinery corrosion management

• Author - 100+ papers / book chapters related to

corrosion, metallurgy, modeling and predictive data

analytics

• Board Member – AFPM (American Fuel and

Petrochemical Manufacturers)

• Chairman – STG62 (NACE committee on

Corrosion Monitoring)

25+ years industry experience developing corrosion

prediction and asset integrity management solutions

Speaker Bio1

1


Outline

2

• Why is process corrosion management critical?

• What is Predict-RT?

• A paradigm shift: Making corrosion visible, relevant

• Predict-RT: Functionality, Overview

• Honeywell Connected: Real-Time Predictive Intelligence

• Conclusions


Corrosion…The Cholesterol in Process Applications

Need to reduce incidents, increase reliability, and extend equipment life

Pro-actively understand and correlate

process to potential damage - critical to

asset integrity

33


Corrosion is Expensive….

7

6

3.7

1.71.4

1.1 1.1

0.1

Gas & LiquidTransmission

Pipelines

Pulp & Paper Refining Chemicals,PetroChem,

Pharma

O&GExploration &

Production

AgriculturalProduction

FoodProcessing

Mining

CO

ST

$B

4

Source: Corrosion Costs and Preventive Strategies in the United States, Report FHWA-RD-01-156. 2002


Conventional Reactive Corrosion Management Methods.. Don’t really work

Like Driving with only a Rearview Mirror

5

Inspection• Process corrosion quantification a complex task

• In Line Inspection (Smart Pigging) – Cost intensive

• Direct Assessment (Digging) – Cost intensive and loss of production

“Fix it when it breaks” • Loss of production and fatalities when they can be avoided

Chemical Injection• Inhibitor vendors driving the process “fox guarding the hen house”

situation

Corrosion Coupons• 90% of corrosion damage is caused during 10% of operational time!

• Corrosion is found after it happens


Real-Time Corrosion Prediction & Management

Knowing where you are headed……predictive and proactive

6

A real-time software

sensor

• Track damage and enforce appropriate limits

• Identify critical areas as operating conditions change

• Adjust your inspection schedule to address critical areas

“Mitigate before it can

break”

• Predict when wall thicknesses will reach critical levels

• Plan your maintenance before it becomes an emergency

Minimize Chemical

Costs

• Visibility means you can use chemicals effectively

• Optimal use translates into lower costs

Optimize process

management with real

time analytics

• Link corrosion and damage to relevant process parameters

• Know how you can optimize your process


Predict-RT: Solution in a Nut-Shell

Honeywell customers have a need to

improve safety and reliability of processes

(Big Data to parse)

• Corrosion Center of Excellence (CoE)

creates accurate laboratory simulations to

generate relevant, focused data

• CoE experts analyze data to provide ways

to correlate critical process parameters

• Modeling team builds prediction models

encapsulating domain intelligence and

data analytics

• Models work with DCS/Historian to

automate safety and asset

reliability/integrity

H2S Partial Pressuer - P

H2S (psia)

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10

Co

rro

sio

n R

ate

(M

PY

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140 T = 600FC1018 - Carbon SteelWSS = 15 Pa

TAN = 0

TAN = 1

TAN = 5.5

low sulfur region medium high very high

Experimental data:

-Mercaptan

-Thiophene

-predictions

-No additive

-Disulfide

7

H2S Partial Pressure, Psia

7

7


Current Situation…….

8

Control System

Operators

Process Data Historian

OPC Compliant

Corrosion

Engineer

Operations

Management Integrity

Management

Inspection

Personnel

Corrosion Prediction

Models

Plant Assets

Corrosion is

“Invisible” to

Operations


Making Corrosion Visible to Operations

13

Operate Plant

Online Corrosion

Rate Prediction

Real-time

Corrosion Rate

Present Corrosion

Rate to Operators

via Control System

9


Making Corrosion Relevant to Operations

14

Operate Plant

Online Corrosion

Rate Prediction

Real-time

Corrosion Rate

Present Corrosion

Rate to Operators

via Control System

Correlate Corrosion

Rates to process

variables

Optimize operating

variables to minimize

Corrosion rates

10


Making Corrosion Actionable by Operations

15

Operate Plant

Online Corrosion

Rate Prediction

Real-time

Corrosion Rate

Present Corrosion

Rate to Operators

via Control System

Correlate Corrosion

Rates to process

variables

Optimize operating

variables to minimize

Corrosion rates

Generate Alarms

& Alerts

Rate OK?

11


Real-Time Prediction Solutions

16

Control System

Operators

Process Data Historian

OPC Compliant

Corrosion

Engineer

Operations

Management Integrity

Management

Inspection

Personnel

Corrosion Prediction

Models

Plant Assets

Predict-RT

Online Corrosion Prediction

Prediction Engine

Online Corrosion

Prediction Models

Corrosion is now “visible” to

everyone and “actionable”

by operations / management

12


AccuratePrediction

Models

• Offline corrosion prediction and material selection models

• Predict-SW 3.0

• Predict-Amine 4.0

• Predict-Crude 2.0

• Predict-SA 2.0

• Predict-CDU-OH 1.0

Process Data

• Process data available in plant historian via DCS

• Operating parameters

• Design Variables

• Material of Construction

• Service Life

• Laboratory Data (LIMS)

…Through an On-line, Integrated Solution

• Corrosion prediction in real-time is possible

• Immediate mitigation actions can be planned

• Immediate quantification of material damage is possible

• Enabled by Predict-RT

Real-TimeCorrosionPrediction

13

2017 Hydrocarbon Processing Innovation Award Winner


Making the complex and invisible…..

Fla

sh

Dru

m

Atm

osp

heri

c C

olu

mn

Desalter Desalter

OH Separator

StabilizerDrum

Naphtha

Kerosene

Diesel

To VDU

Steam

Str

ipp

er

Str

ipp

er

Accumulator

FiredHeater

SG Compressor

Sour Gas

LPG

Crude OilFrom Storage

Water

Brine

Sour Water

Cold Reflux

Caustic

3 5 6 111

19 20 23 30 44

1 6

20 23

33

8 9

9

8

9 20

42

48

5266 9 8

1 6

1 6

1 6

1 6

2

2

2 8

9 20

42

66

19 18

1

20

1

6

20

23

48 52

2

20

8 9

42

1 – Sulfidation; 2 – Wet H2S Damage (Blistering/HIC/SOHIC/SSC; 3 – Creep / Stress Rupture; 5 – Polythionic Acid Corrosion; 6 – Naphthenic Acid Corrosion; 8 – Ammonium Chloride Corrosion; 9 – HCl Corrosion; 11 – Oxidation; 18 – Caustic Cracking; 20 – Erosion/Erosion Corrosion; 23 – Cl SCC; 30 – Short term Overheating / Stress Rupture; 33 – 885F Embrittlement; Dissimilar Metal Weld Cracking; 42 – CO2 Corrosion; 44 – Fuel Ash Corrosion; 48 – Ammonia Stress Corrosion Cracking; 52 – Liquid Metal Embrittlement; 66 – Organic Acid Corrosion

14 14


Simple, Visible, Relevant15

*PREDICT-RT IS PATENT PENDING REAL TIME DATA MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY

PREDICT-RT IS THE INDUSTRY’S FIRST EVER SOFTWARE SENSOR FOR CORROSION*


Predict-RT: Real-Time Corrosion Prediction & Management

Preventing Corrosion Is Knowing When and Where It Occurs

16

Transforming Process Data into Corrosion Intelligence for Enhanced Profitability and Reliability

Anticipate

Predict corrosion damage and avoid

unplanned shut downs

...

Understand

Correlate process changes to potential

corrosion consequences

!Manage

Flexible operations means improved

reliability without a corresponding increase

in costs

Deliver

Enhanced throughput and increased profits

Scalability

Monitor and expand corrosion visibility as

needed

Real-Time

Visibility into your asset integrity program for

better management of risk and inspection

Improved Margins

Optimize feedstock selection and

processing opportunity crudes for superior ROI


Optimized Feedstock Selection

17

North American Independent Refinery (189,000 bpd capacity)

Predict-RT implemented to monitor the 30 day rolling-average TAN envelope

vs 30 day fixed TAN envelope – providing visibility into the process – allowing

Refiner to purchase more economical Crudes for processing

Business Opportunity

• Process additional DCO cargo (600 kb/cargo)

• $3/bbl incentive to the next heavy barrel alternative

• Shipment incentive of $1,800,000/cargo

Solution

• Four (4) additional DCO cargos/yr. processed safely

• Annual saving of $7,200,000

• Payout in less than 1 QTR

• Plans for solution rollout to additional refineries

(900,000 bpd network capacity)

Predict-RT allows for crude slate flexibility while maintaining a robust

mechanical integrity program for the crude and downstream units.


Predictive Analytics for Refinery Integrity Management

18

Leading North American Refiner & Distributor (1.1M bpd capacity)

Predict-Crude and Predict-SW implemented to support the largest US refinery’s integrity

management program


• Better manage corrosion rates for complex crude

throughput

• Provide crude corrosion prediction due to naphthenic

acid and sulfidic corrosion

• Provide accurate sour water prediction and modeling to

ensure safe operations

Solution

• Predict software suite for refineries encapsulates

comprehensive data from thousands of laboratory

simulations

• Refining industry’s first-of-its-kind predictive, analytical

model designed to convert process data into predictive

intelligence, facilitating enhanced safety and reliability

while driving optimized unit operations

Predict corrosion suite predictive analytics for enhanced reliability

and integrity management.


Enhanced Refinery Safety and Productivity

19

Oil & Gas Industry leader and Member of Honeywell Refinery JIPPredict-SW implemented across refineries worldwide to standardize corrosion prediction

and material selection


• Deploy a global standardize solution to support NH4HS

corrosion programs

• Increase engineering productivity across corrosion and

integrity management programs

Solution

• Predict-SW is the only solution that can help guarantee

against NH4HS corrosion in refinery operations

• Over 60 global users of the solution across different

locations and continents

Predict corrosion suite enables accurate corrosion prediction and

material selection for improved decision making.


Real Time Analytics…Monitor Rates at Multiple Locations

20

Predict-RT provides a real time quantified picture of unit and piping

integrity; transforming your data into knowledge.


Correlate Rates with Operating Conditions

21

Predict-RT provides

the ability to safely

process opportunity

crudes, better manage

your corrosion costs

and improve operating

margins.


Evaluate Multiple Materials for Better Asset Life Assessment

22

Predict-RT translates

to extended asset life

and better manage

your asset integrity

and corrosion costs.


Smart Operations and Predict®-RT

Work Process Transformation

Enabling Enterprise Optimization

through Connected Integration

Leveraging Operational Best Practices (API 584) and Domain Expertise (JIP Models) to transform work processes to maximize benefits from predictive data analytics and intelligence

23

Connecting the Enterprise to drive Smart Decisions

Reporting /

Dashboards

Predictive

Analytics

Data

Integration

Enterprise Decision

Support System

Operating Assets

Evaluate

Opportunities

Prioritize /

Execute

Process Data > Corrosion

Knowledge > Intelligent

Action

Closing the Loop to Drive

Efficiency, Safety, Reliability

and Agility

23


Predictive Multi-Parametric Analyses means Dynamic IOWs24

Sour Water Flow Rate

(gpm)Value

Minimum 15

Maximum 45

Operating Point 30

IOW Low 15

IOW High 32

Multi-parametric analysis includes:

- Temperature

- NH4HS conc.

- H2S, NH3 conc.

- Vapour flow rate

- Liquid HC flow rate

- Total pressure

Max allowable CR = 8mpy

Max allowable CR = 8mpy

SW flow rate, gpm

Imposing effect of other variables

After reduction of NH4HS conc.

IOW to 2.7wt%

PATENT-PENDING

PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS

FOR DYNAMIC IOW

MANAGEMENT


Asset Integrity - Predictive Maintenance/Reliability Framework

25

Data

Collaboration

Asset Integrity

Dashboard

Predictive MaintenanceSafety Reliability

Profitability

Corrosion

damage

Quantification

& ID of critical

zones

Prediction of

current state of

equipment

Deviation

Management

and Reporting


Real Time Corrosion Management is a complex task

Stop by Demo room for a Predict-RT functional

demonstration

Predict-RT facilitates throughput flexibility, process

optimization and enhanced safety / reliability

Request a demo download to see how Predict-RT

makes the invisible visible

Wish to implement the first ever predictive software

sensor for corrosion?

Please contact your Honeywell Account Manager

Conclusions / Path Forward

26 26

Honeywell Proprietary27

HVGO Process Graphics – Detail View


Data Detail


Data Trends

• RT corrosion

rates in line

with

measured

rate

• Ability to see

remaining

thickness and

cumulative

metal loss


Predict-RT ATU-3: Modeling Points


Process Graphics


Real-Time Data on Dashboard


Data Trends

Documents

REAL TIME PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS AND June 20, 2017 CORROSION MANAGEMENT ... · REAL TIME PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS AND CORROSION MANAGEMENT WITH PREDICT®-RT Sridhar Srinivasan June 20,