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Page 1: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:
Page 2: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Real GDP GrowthQuarterly Real GDP

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent Change, SAAR

Page 3: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

National Employment

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Thousands, Month-over-Month

Rece

ssion

18 M

onth

s

Rece

ssion

8 Mo

nths

Page 4: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

State Employment GrowthYear-over-Year October 2016

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

Page 5: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Labor Underutilization

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

U-6

U-5

U-3

Percentage of Labor Force

9.3%

4.6%5.8%

Average U-6

Average U-3

Page 6: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Labor Force Participation Rate

59.0

60.0

61.0

62.0

63.0

64.0

65.0

66.0

67.0

68.0

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

Page 7: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Labor Force Participation Rate

59.0

60.0

61.0

62.0

63.0

64.0

65.0

66.0

67.0

68.0

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

Page 8: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Labor Force Participation RatesNational by Age Cohort

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

LFPR

1986

Peak2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).

1998 1990 1997

2009

Current2015

2015

Age Group

Page 9: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Labor Force and Unemployment RateNational by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, 2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Less than a HighSchool diploma

High Schoolgraduates

Some college,no degree

Associatedegree

Bachelor'sdegree

Advanceddegree

Percentage

LFPR

Unemployment Rate

Page 10: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

U.S. Income and Consumption

Sources: Consensus Forecasts.

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Percent Change

Real Personal Consumption

2.4%

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Percent Change

Real Disposable Income

2.2%

Page 11: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Household WealthQ2 2001-Q2 2016

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Q2 2000 Q2 2002 Q2 2004 Q2 2006 Q2 2008 Q2 2010 Q2 2012 Q2 2014 Q2 2016

$ Trillions

Mutual FundsCorporate EquitiesReal Estate

Other Assets

Total Liabilities

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B.101) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Page 12: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Household Debt Burden

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

1994 1996 1999 2002 2005 2007 2010 2013 2016

FORDSR

Percent of Disposable Income

Financial Obligations Ratio (R)

Debt Service Ratio (L)

Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.

Page 13: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1991 1993 1995 1996 1998 2000 2001 2003 2005 2006 2008 2010 2011 2013 2015 2016

1985=100 Recession8 months

United States

Mountain Region

Index of Consumer Confidence

Recession18 months

Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.

Page 14: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody’s Analytics, U.S. Census Bureau (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2016

Retail and Food Services SalesAnnual Percent Change

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2016

Vehicle SalesThousands, SAAR

Page 15: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Nominal Corporate Profits and Business Fixed Investment

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Percent Change

Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits

2.2%

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts.

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Percent Change

Business Fixed Investment

3%

Page 16: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

ISM Indices

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

ISM Manufacturing Index

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Page 17: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

National FHFA Home Price GrowthYear over Year Q3 2016

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.

Page 18: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Housing Affordability Index

60

100

140

180

220

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Composite Index

Source: National Association of Realtors.

Page 19: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

National Housing Starts

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts.

1.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Millions

Page 20: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Federal Budget Balance

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.18B, Consensus Forecasts.

-1,600

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$ Billions

-$570

Page 21: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

International TradeMajor Export Destinations

Canada18%

Mexico14%

China8%

Japan6%

Republic of Korea

4%Malaysia

5%

Germany3%

Switzerland3%

Other39%

Export Destinations

Sources: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Broad Dollar Index, and National Bureau of Economic Research. Data through November 10, 2016.

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Index Jan. 1997=100

Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar, 2000-2016

Page 22: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Money, Interest Rates, and Prices

Page 23: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Interest Rates

Sources: Federal Reserve and Moody’s.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Interest Rates, 2000-2017 (Forecast)Percent

10-Year T-Note

3-Month T-Bill

Page 24: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

National Inflation

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Year-over-Year Percent Change

All items

Shelter All items less food and energy

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (SA).

Page 25: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Colorado Population, Employment, and Prices

Page 26: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Change in Population

2nd-fastest state for percentage growth

7th-fastest state for absolute growth

5th-most net migration

96% of growth along Front Range

Denver now the most populous county

Continued net migration into the state

Source: Colorado Demography Office.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2001 2005 2009 2013 2017

Thousands

Change in Colorado Population 2001-2017

Natural Increase

Net M

igration

Page 27: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Colorado Employment GrowthJobs Added

Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, BEOF Committee Members.

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Thousands

63,400

Page 28: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Employment Change2016-2017

Natural Resources and Mining

Information

Manufacturing

Other Services

Government

Financial Activities

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Construction

Professional and Business Services

Education and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16Thousands of Jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

Page 29: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Regional Employment Growth and Unemployment

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

Grand Junction

Colorado Springs

Pueblo

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood

Boulder

Fort Collins

Greeley

Percentage

Employment Growth YoY% Change September 2016

Colorado 2.7%

Sources: CES (Seasonally Adjusted) and LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

Grand Junction

Colorado Springs

Pueblo

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood

Boulder

Fort Collins

Greeley

Percentage

Unemployment Rate September 2015

Colorado SA 3.8%, 3.0% NSA

Page 30: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Agriculture

Phot

o co

urte

sy o

f Jill

Lam

bert.

Page 31: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Gross Farm Revenue and Net Income2007-2017

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

$ Millions

Net Income

Farm Production Expenses

$7.1B

Photo courtesy of Sandy Wilt.

Page 32: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Livestock Cash Receipts2007-2017

Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

$ Millions

$4.1B

• 65% of total value of production in Colorado

• Rebuilding herds in favorable low cost environment

• Fed cattle numbers rebounding from the 2015 record low

• Number of cattle sales anticipated to drop to lowest level since 1986

Page 33: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Commodity PricesWheat and Corn

Sources: Bloomberg (USDA Toledo No.2 Yellow Corn Not on the River Spot Price, USDA No. 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat Spot Price/Kansas City Missouri). As of November 2016.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Dollars

Wheat

Corn

Page 34: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Crops Cash Receipts2007-2017

Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

$ Millions

$1.9B

• Corn prices remain low as yield is projected to reach record highs

• Major crops: wheat, corn, and hay

• Cash receipts expected to fall in 2017 to $321MM

• Government payments expected to increase in 2017

• Innovation will play an increasing role for agriculture

Page 35: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Net Farm Income

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$ Millions

$391

Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Agriculture Committee.

Page 36: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Construction

Value of Construction

Nonresidential30%

Nonbuilding17%

Residential53%

Photo Courtesy www.rtd-fastracks.com

Page 37: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Housing Units

Households

2001-2007 – 119,895 more housing units than households

2008-2015 – 109,817 more households than housing units

Source: Colorado State Demography Office.

Housing Units vs. HouseholdsAnnual Change

Page 38: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Source: Standard & Poor’s (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

New YorkWashington, D.C.ClevelandBostonChicagoMinneapolisPhoenixAtlantaSan DiegoLas VegasSan FranciscoDetroitLos AngelesCharlotteMiamiTampaDallasDenverPortlandSeattle

September 2016

Percent Change

Page 39: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

36,700

Residential Building Permits2007-2017

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Multifamily

Single Family

Residential Housing:

• Home appreciation among the fastest nationally

• Mostly single family permits in 2016

• Decrease in multifamily

Page 40: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Value of ConstructionResidential, 2007-2017

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$Millions $9.7 B

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Page 41: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Value of ConstructionNonresidential, 2007-2017

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

$ Millions

$5,400

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. Photo courtesy of Xcel Energy.

Page 42: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Value of Construction2007-2017

Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

$17.9 B

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$ Millions

Nonbuilding

Residential

Nonresidential

Page 43: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Thousands

166

Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

ConstructionEmployment, 2007-2017

Photo Courtesy of Breckenridge Brewery.

Page 44: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Natural Resources and Mining

Page 45: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Dollars per Barrel

December 2, 2016:$51.61

December 2, 2015:$39.93

June 3, 2008: $145.31

WTI Oil Price2006-2016

Average 2006-2016

Source: EIA, Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel).

December 2, 2014:$66.99

Page 46: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Value of Natural Resources

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$ Millions

Crude Oil

Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Minerals Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Natural Gas

CO2

MineralsCoal

$13.3

Page 47: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Millions of Barrels

Crude Oil Production

Largest Producers1. Texas2. North Dakota3. California4. Alaska5. Oklahoma6. New Mexico7. Colorado8. Wyoming9. Louisiana10. Kansas

2007-2017

Sources: Rankings from the Energy Information Administration. Production data from Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

109.1

Page 48: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Billions of Cubic Feet

Natural Gas Production2007-2017

Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission,Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

1,641 • Sixth-largest producing state

• Projected price higher due to expected colder temperatures

• Average residential gas prices in Colorado for 2016 were the 10th lowest in the country

• Total production stagnant due to low prices

• Value of production to increase slightly

Page 49: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Coal Production2007-2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Short Tons (Millions)

12.0

Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission,Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

• Lowest production levels since the mid-1990s

• State ranking slipped to 10th in 2016

• Government mandates for renewables limiting production

• Decreasing demand from TVA

• Power plants divesting from coal

Page 50: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Colorado O&G Severance Taxes

Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB; Colorado Department of Revenue.

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

Severance Taxes, 12-Mo. Rolling Sum

WTI, 12-Mo. Ave. $/Barrel

WTI Spot Price (R Axis)

Severance Taxes(L Axis)

Page 51: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Renewables

• First renewable portfolio standard in the country

• Includes wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, and biomass

• 17.2% of net generation in 2015

• Most of Colorado’s renewable energy comes from wind resources

• Colorado ranks 10th nationally for total megawatts installed for wind energy Photo courtesy of Xcel Energy.

Page 52: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Natural Resources and MiningWorkers Added, 2007-2017

Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission,Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Thousands

-0.2

Page 53: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Mesa County

Page 54: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Percentage ChangeMillions of Chained 2009 Dollars

Real Gross Domestic ProductGrand Junction MSA

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 55: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0Thousands

87 Months . .

+3,800 jobs, +6.5%

Non-Ag EmploymentGrand Junction MSA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Data Series, SA.

Page 56: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

Year-over-Year Percent Change

Non-Ag EmploymentGrand Junction MSA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Data Series, SA.

Labor Department expected revisions

Page 57: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

Q22002

Q22003

Q22004

Q22005

Q22006

Q22007

Q22008

Q22009

Q22010

Q22011

Q22012

Q22013

Q22014

Q22015

Q22016

$ Millions

Mesa County WagesAnnual Rate (4Q Rolling)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.

-117 M-4.6%

Page 58: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Mesa County Average Wages

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Q2 2002 Q2 2004 Q2 2006 Q2 2008 Q2 2010 Q2 2012 Q2 2014 Q2 2016

$ Millions

Annual Rate (4Q)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.

+2.9%

Page 59: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

2015 Average Annual Wages

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000Dollars

Colorado Statewide

Western Slope Colorado

$41,378

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.

Page 60: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000Percent ChangeDeposits, Millions

Percent Change (R-axis)

Deposits(L-axis)

Grand Junction Bank Deposits1994-2016

Source: FDIC, Deposit Market Share Report.

Page 61: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Grand Junction MSA Employment ChangeOctober 2016

Month over Month 1-Year

3-Year (CAGR)

5-Year (CAGR)

10-Year (CAGR)

Total ‐0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.4%Mining, Logging, and Construction 0.0% ‐3.1% ‐1.0% ‐3.2% ‐2.2%Manufacturing ‐3.3% 0.0% 1.2% 2.2% ‐1.3%Wholesale 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 2.6% 1.3%Retail 1.2% 1.2% 2.1% 1.0% ‐0.2%Transportation and Utilities 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% ‐0.7% 0.0%Information 0.0% ‐14.3% ‐9.1% ‐5.6% ‐4.0%Financial Activities 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 2.0% ‐0.6%Professional and Business Services 0.0% 0.0% ‐1.2% 1.1% 0.6%Education and Health Services ‐1.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.0%Leisure and Hospitality ‐2.5% 4.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.1%Other 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8%Government 0.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.0% 1.5%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Excludes expected revisions from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.

Page 62: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)House Price Index

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

Grand Junction

Colorado Springs

Pueblo

Fort Collins

Greeley

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood

Boulder

Percent

Colorado 11.4%

Federal Housing Finance AgencyHome Prices by MSA

Q2 2015 – Q2 2016

0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

Grand Junction

Colorado Springs

Pueblo

Fort Collins

Greeley

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood

Boulder

Percent

Colorado 3.0%

Federal Housing Finance AgencyHome Prices by MSA

CAGR Q2 2006 – Q2 2016

Page 63: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Single Family v. Multifamily PermitsGrand Junction MSA

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Permits

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2015YTD

2016YTD

Permit

Page 64: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Residential Permits and ValuationGrand Junction MSA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600Permits $ Millions

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2015YTD

2016YTD

Page 65: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

WEL

D

GAR

FIEL

D

LA P

LATA

ADAM

S

JAC

KSO

N

RIO

BLA

NC

O

MO

RG

AN O

TER

O

MO

FFAT

GU

NN

ISO

N

ARAP

AHO

E

LAR

IMER

WAS

HIN

GTO

N

ARC

HU

LETA

DO

LOR

ES

LIN

CO

LN

FREM

ON

T

KIT

CAR

SON

LOG

AN

MO

NTE

ZUM

A

PRO

WER

S

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000Permits

Weld and Garfield = 84.0%Western Slope = 33.6%Mesa County = 0%

Drilling Permits by County2016 YTD

Source: COGCC.

Page 66: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016YTD

Rest of Colorado Western Slope Share

Drilling Permits by County1989-2016 YTD October 1st

Source: COGCC.

Page 67: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Thank You

Page 68: Real GDP Growth - Grand Junction Chamber of Commerce · Business Research Division| Leeds School of Business| University of Colorado Boulder Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Sources:

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Colorado Ranking Among Other States

Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (2015), Bureau of Labor Statistics (10/16), U.S. Census Bureau (2015), Bureau of Labor Statistics (2015), Bureau Federal Housing Finance Agency All Transactions Index (Q3 2016), BRD calculations. Note: 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year are based on the compound annual growth rate.

Metric 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Real GDP Growth 4 3 5 11Employment Growth 6 5 3 4Population Growth 2 3 3 4Personal Income Growth 23 1 2 7PCPI Growth 43 1 2 30PCPI 13 18 22 13Average Annual Pay % Growth 28 26 18 23Average Annual Pay 12 13 12 10Unemployment Rate 9 18 29 18Labor Force % Growth 6 11 7 4FHFA Home Price Index 3 2 4 3