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Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Real GDP GrowthQuarterly Real GDP
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Percent Change, SAAR
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
National Employment
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Thousands, Month-over-Month
Rece
ssion
18 M
onth
s
Rece
ssion
8 Mo
nths
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
State Employment GrowthYear-over-Year October 2016
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Labor Underutilization
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
U-6
U-5
U-3
Percentage of Labor Force
9.3%
4.6%5.8%
Average U-6
Average U-3
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Labor Force Participation Rate
59.0
60.0
61.0
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
68.0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Labor Force Participation Rate
59.0
60.0
61.0
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
68.0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Labor Force Participation RatesNational by Age Cohort
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
LFPR
1986
Peak2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).
1998 1990 1997
2009
Current2015
2015
Age Group
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Labor Force and Unemployment RateNational by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Less than a HighSchool diploma
High Schoolgraduates
Some college,no degree
Associatedegree
Bachelor'sdegree
Advanceddegree
Percentage
LFPR
Unemployment Rate
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
U.S. Income and Consumption
Sources: Consensus Forecasts.
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Percent Change
Real Personal Consumption
2.4%
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Percent Change
Real Disposable Income
2.2%
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Household WealthQ2 2001-Q2 2016
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q2 2000 Q2 2002 Q2 2004 Q2 2006 Q2 2008 Q2 2010 Q2 2012 Q2 2014 Q2 2016
$ Trillions
Mutual FundsCorporate EquitiesReal Estate
Other Assets
Total Liabilities
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B.101) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Household Debt Burden
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
1994 1996 1999 2002 2005 2007 2010 2013 2016
FORDSR
Percent of Disposable Income
Financial Obligations Ratio (R)
Debt Service Ratio (L)
Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990 1991 1993 1995 1996 1998 2000 2001 2003 2005 2006 2008 2010 2011 2013 2015 2016
1985=100 Recession8 months
United States
Mountain Region
Index of Consumer Confidence
Recession18 months
Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody’s Analytics, U.S. Census Bureau (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2016
Retail and Food Services SalesAnnual Percent Change
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2016
Vehicle SalesThousands, SAAR
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Nominal Corporate Profits and Business Fixed Investment
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Percent Change
Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits
2.2%
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts.
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Percent Change
Business Fixed Investment
3%
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
ISM Indices
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
ISM Manufacturing Index
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
National FHFA Home Price GrowthYear over Year Q3 2016
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Housing Affordability Index
60
100
140
180
220
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Composite Index
Source: National Association of Realtors.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
National Housing Starts
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts.
1.3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Millions
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Federal Budget Balance
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.18B, Consensus Forecasts.
-1,600
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ Billions
-$570
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
International TradeMajor Export Destinations
Canada18%
Mexico14%
China8%
Japan6%
Republic of Korea
4%Malaysia
5%
Germany3%
Switzerland3%
Other39%
Export Destinations
Sources: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Broad Dollar Index, and National Bureau of Economic Research. Data through November 10, 2016.
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Index Jan. 1997=100
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar, 2000-2016
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Money, Interest Rates, and Prices
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Interest Rates
Sources: Federal Reserve and Moody’s.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Interest Rates, 2000-2017 (Forecast)Percent
10-Year T-Note
3-Month T-Bill
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
National Inflation
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Year-over-Year Percent Change
All items
Shelter All items less food and energy
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (SA).
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Colorado Population, Employment, and Prices
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Change in Population
2nd-fastest state for percentage growth
7th-fastest state for absolute growth
5th-most net migration
96% of growth along Front Range
Denver now the most populous county
Continued net migration into the state
Source: Colorado Demography Office.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
Thousands
Change in Colorado Population 2001-2017
Natural Increase
Net M
igration
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Colorado Employment GrowthJobs Added
Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, BEOF Committee Members.
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Thousands
63,400
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Employment Change2016-2017
Natural Resources and Mining
Information
Manufacturing
Other Services
Government
Financial Activities
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Construction
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16Thousands of Jobs
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Regional Employment Growth and Unemployment
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
Grand Junction
Colorado Springs
Pueblo
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood
Boulder
Fort Collins
Greeley
Percentage
Employment Growth YoY% Change September 2016
Colorado 2.7%
Sources: CES (Seasonally Adjusted) and LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
Grand Junction
Colorado Springs
Pueblo
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood
Boulder
Fort Collins
Greeley
Percentage
Unemployment Rate September 2015
Colorado SA 3.8%, 3.0% NSA
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Agriculture
Phot
o co
urte
sy o
f Jill
Lam
bert.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Gross Farm Revenue and Net Income2007-2017
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
$ Millions
Net Income
Farm Production Expenses
$7.1B
Photo courtesy of Sandy Wilt.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Livestock Cash Receipts2007-2017
Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
$ Millions
$4.1B
• 65% of total value of production in Colorado
• Rebuilding herds in favorable low cost environment
• Fed cattle numbers rebounding from the 2015 record low
• Number of cattle sales anticipated to drop to lowest level since 1986
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Commodity PricesWheat and Corn
Sources: Bloomberg (USDA Toledo No.2 Yellow Corn Not on the River Spot Price, USDA No. 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat Spot Price/Kansas City Missouri). As of November 2016.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Dollars
Wheat
Corn
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Crops Cash Receipts2007-2017
Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
$ Millions
$1.9B
• Corn prices remain low as yield is projected to reach record highs
• Major crops: wheat, corn, and hay
• Cash receipts expected to fall in 2017 to $321MM
• Government payments expected to increase in 2017
• Innovation will play an increasing role for agriculture
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Net Farm Income
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ Millions
$391
Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Agriculture Committee.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Construction
Value of Construction
Nonresidential30%
Nonbuilding17%
Residential53%
Photo Courtesy www.rtd-fastracks.com
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Housing Units
Households
2001-2007 – 119,895 more housing units than households
2008-2015 – 109,817 more households than housing units
Source: Colorado State Demography Office.
Housing Units vs. HouseholdsAnnual Change
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Source: Standard & Poor’s (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
New YorkWashington, D.C.ClevelandBostonChicagoMinneapolisPhoenixAtlantaSan DiegoLas VegasSan FranciscoDetroitLos AngelesCharlotteMiamiTampaDallasDenverPortlandSeattle
September 2016
Percent Change
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
36,700
Residential Building Permits2007-2017
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Multifamily
Single Family
Residential Housing:
• Home appreciation among the fastest nationally
• Mostly single family permits in 2016
• Decrease in multifamily
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Value of ConstructionResidential, 2007-2017
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$Millions $9.7 B
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Value of ConstructionNonresidential, 2007-2017
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
$ Millions
$5,400
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. Photo courtesy of Xcel Energy.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Value of Construction2007-2017
Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
$17.9 B
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ Millions
Nonbuilding
Residential
Nonresidential
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Thousands
166
Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
ConstructionEmployment, 2007-2017
Photo Courtesy of Breckenridge Brewery.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Natural Resources and Mining
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Dollars per Barrel
December 2, 2016:$51.61
December 2, 2015:$39.93
June 3, 2008: $145.31
WTI Oil Price2006-2016
Average 2006-2016
Source: EIA, Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel).
December 2, 2014:$66.99
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Value of Natural Resources
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ Millions
Crude Oil
Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Minerals Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Natural Gas
CO2
MineralsCoal
$13.3
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Millions of Barrels
Crude Oil Production
Largest Producers1. Texas2. North Dakota3. California4. Alaska5. Oklahoma6. New Mexico7. Colorado8. Wyoming9. Louisiana10. Kansas
2007-2017
Sources: Rankings from the Energy Information Administration. Production data from Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
109.1
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Billions of Cubic Feet
Natural Gas Production2007-2017
Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission,Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
1,641 • Sixth-largest producing state
• Projected price higher due to expected colder temperatures
• Average residential gas prices in Colorado for 2016 were the 10th lowest in the country
• Total production stagnant due to low prices
• Value of production to increase slightly
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Coal Production2007-2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Short Tons (Millions)
12.0
Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission,Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
• Lowest production levels since the mid-1990s
• State ranking slipped to 10th in 2016
• Government mandates for renewables limiting production
• Decreasing demand from TVA
• Power plants divesting from coal
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Colorado O&G Severance Taxes
Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB; Colorado Department of Revenue.
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Severance Taxes, 12-Mo. Rolling Sum
WTI, 12-Mo. Ave. $/Barrel
WTI Spot Price (R Axis)
Severance Taxes(L Axis)
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Renewables
• First renewable portfolio standard in the country
• Includes wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, and biomass
• 17.2% of net generation in 2015
• Most of Colorado’s renewable energy comes from wind resources
• Colorado ranks 10th nationally for total megawatts installed for wind energy Photo courtesy of Xcel Energy.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Natural Resources and MiningWorkers Added, 2007-2017
Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission,Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Thousands
-0.2
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Mesa County
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percentage ChangeMillions of Chained 2009 Dollars
Real Gross Domestic ProductGrand Junction MSA
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0Thousands
87 Months . .
+3,800 jobs, +6.5%
Non-Ag EmploymentGrand Junction MSA
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Data Series, SA.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Non-Ag EmploymentGrand Junction MSA
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Data Series, SA.
Labor Department expected revisions
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
Q22002
Q22003
Q22004
Q22005
Q22006
Q22007
Q22008
Q22009
Q22010
Q22011
Q22012
Q22013
Q22014
Q22015
Q22016
$ Millions
Mesa County WagesAnnual Rate (4Q Rolling)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.
-117 M-4.6%
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Mesa County Average Wages
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Q2 2002 Q2 2004 Q2 2006 Q2 2008 Q2 2010 Q2 2012 Q2 2014 Q2 2016
$ Millions
Annual Rate (4Q)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.
+2.9%
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
2015 Average Annual Wages
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000Dollars
Colorado Statewide
Western Slope Colorado
$41,378
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000Percent ChangeDeposits, Millions
Percent Change (R-axis)
Deposits(L-axis)
Grand Junction Bank Deposits1994-2016
Source: FDIC, Deposit Market Share Report.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Grand Junction MSA Employment ChangeOctober 2016
Month over Month 1-Year
3-Year (CAGR)
5-Year (CAGR)
10-Year (CAGR)
Total ‐0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.4%Mining, Logging, and Construction 0.0% ‐3.1% ‐1.0% ‐3.2% ‐2.2%Manufacturing ‐3.3% 0.0% 1.2% 2.2% ‐1.3%Wholesale 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 2.6% 1.3%Retail 1.2% 1.2% 2.1% 1.0% ‐0.2%Transportation and Utilities 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% ‐0.7% 0.0%Information 0.0% ‐14.3% ‐9.1% ‐5.6% ‐4.0%Financial Activities 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 2.0% ‐0.6%Professional and Business Services 0.0% 0.0% ‐1.2% 1.1% 0.6%Education and Health Services ‐1.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.0%Leisure and Hospitality ‐2.5% 4.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.1%Other 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8%Government 0.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.0% 1.5%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Excludes expected revisions from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)House Price Index
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%
Grand Junction
Colorado Springs
Pueblo
Fort Collins
Greeley
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood
Boulder
Percent
Colorado 11.4%
Federal Housing Finance AgencyHome Prices by MSA
Q2 2015 – Q2 2016
0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Grand Junction
Colorado Springs
Pueblo
Fort Collins
Greeley
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood
Boulder
Percent
Colorado 3.0%
Federal Housing Finance AgencyHome Prices by MSA
CAGR Q2 2006 – Q2 2016
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Single Family v. Multifamily PermitsGrand Junction MSA
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Permits
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2015YTD
2016YTD
Permit
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Residential Permits and ValuationGrand Junction MSA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600Permits $ Millions
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2015YTD
2016YTD
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
WEL
D
GAR
FIEL
D
LA P
LATA
ADAM
S
JAC
KSO
N
RIO
BLA
NC
O
MO
RG
AN O
TER
O
MO
FFAT
GU
NN
ISO
N
ARAP
AHO
E
LAR
IMER
WAS
HIN
GTO
N
ARC
HU
LETA
DO
LOR
ES
LIN
CO
LN
FREM
ON
T
KIT
CAR
SON
LOG
AN
MO
NTE
ZUM
A
PRO
WER
S
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000Permits
Weld and Garfield = 84.0%Western Slope = 33.6%Mesa County = 0%
Drilling Permits by County2016 YTD
Source: COGCC.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016YTD
Rest of Colorado Western Slope Share
Drilling Permits by County1989-2016 YTD October 1st
Source: COGCC.
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Thank You
Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Colorado Ranking Among Other States
Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (2015), Bureau of Labor Statistics (10/16), U.S. Census Bureau (2015), Bureau of Labor Statistics (2015), Bureau Federal Housing Finance Agency All Transactions Index (Q3 2016), BRD calculations. Note: 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year are based on the compound annual growth rate.
Metric 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Real GDP Growth 4 3 5 11Employment Growth 6 5 3 4Population Growth 2 3 3 4Personal Income Growth 23 1 2 7PCPI Growth 43 1 2 30PCPI 13 18 22 13Average Annual Pay % Growth 28 26 18 23Average Annual Pay 12 13 12 10Unemployment Rate 9 18 29 18Labor Force % Growth 6 11 7 4FHFA Home Price Index 3 2 4 3