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General Economy
Real GDP Growth
Source: IMF – January 2009
Percent
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Advanced Developing World
W Texas Crude Oil Price$ per Barrel
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Actual DOE Forecast
Source: Department of Energy – January 2009
US $ vs Cotton ImportersAnnual Percent Change
-5%
27%
37%
23%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
China Mexico Turkey Indonesia
05 06 07 08
US UnemploymentPercent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
Source: BLS – Monthly Seasonally Adj
US Federal Budget
Source: CBO – January 2009
Billion $
-1,600-1,400-1,200
-1,000-800-600-400-200
0200400
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Baseline Stimulus Package
Int’l Cotton Outlook
China Cotton Supply & UseMillion Bales
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08e 09f
Net Imports Production Use Stocks
India Cotton Supply & UseMillion Bales
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08e 09f
Net Exports Production Use Stocks
Selected Countries
08/09 09/10 Change
Net Imports (Million Bales)
Mexico 1.16 1.15 -0.01
Turkey 2.34 2.77 0.43
Indonesia 2.14 2.24 0.10
Net Exports
West Africa 2.23 2.15 -0.08
Brazil 2.02 1.77 -0.25
Australia 0.90 1.43 0.53
Int’l Cotton Supply & Use
08/09 09/10 Change
(Million Bales)
Production 96.8 92.9 -3.9
Mill Use 108.3 109.9 1.5
Loss -2.5 -2.5 0.0
Ending Stocks 54.7 51.3 -3.4
Net Imports 11.5 11.2 -0.3
US Cotton ExportsMillion Bales
024
68
101214
161820
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08e 09f
Upland ELS
US Cotton Market
US Mill Use
• Apparent Retail Consumption Down
• Expiration of China Quotas at End of ‘08
• Economic Assistance in Farm Bill
US Cotton Retail UseMillion Bale Equivalents
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Retail Market Imported Product
US Textile Imports(2008 Jan-Nov)
Billion Sq Meters
China
China
West Hem
West Hem
Other Asia
Other Asia
Rest-of-World
Rest-of-World
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Non-Agreement Agreement
US Cotton Mill UseMillion Bales
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08e 09f
Southeast 1,923 1,580 -17.8Mid-South 1,876 1,438 -23.4 Southwest 5,205 4,746 -8.8 West 292 202 -31.0
ALL UPLAND 9,296 7,965 -14.3
ALL ELS 174 142 -18.6
ALL COTTON 9,470 8,107 -14.4
2009 U.S. Planting Intentions
2008 2009 % Actual Intended Change
Total may not add due to rounding.
Thousand Acres
US Cotton ProductionMillion Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08e 09f
Upland ELS
* National Average Abandonment Rate: 9.4%** National Average Yield: 834 lbs./harvested acre
US Cotton Supply & Use
08/09 09/10 Change
(Million Bales)
Production 13.04 12.76 -0.28
Mill Use 4.10 3.90 -0.20
Exports 11.50 11.18 -0.32
Ending Stocks 7.50 5.19 -2.31
Summary
World Cotton Supply & UseMillion Bales
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08e 09f
Stocks Production Use
World Stocks/Use & A IndexStocks/Use
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
91 94 97 00 03 06 09f
$0.40
$0.55
$0.70
$0.85
$1.00$/Lb
Stock-to-Use Ratio A Index
Recap
• 2008/09 – Uncommon Outcomes– Lower Production– Reduced Demand due to Economic Situation– Prices Fall
• 2009/10 – Uncertain Opportunities– Lower Area & Production– Demand Recovery Depends on General
Economy– Decline in Stocks, but…
