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Read-through of SMM Monthly PMI Issue 1 | June 6, 2018
Readthrough of SMM May PMI: demand slows down __________________________________ 3
PMI had risen for 3 consecutive months, May demand slows down as expected _______________________________ 3
SMM composite PMI leads NBS PMI by 6-7 months ______________________________________________________ 3
Inventories of finished products likely to grow in the short term ___________________________________________ 4
Currently, prices are driven by demand _______________________________________________________________ 5
Analysis by sector _____________________________________________________________ 6
Investment growth in the property market slows down ___________________________________________________ 6
Investment in infrastructure declined _________________________________________________________________ 7
Growth in machinery continued, but likely to abate as construction slows down _______________________________ 7
Low inventories and a low base boosted sales and production of autos ______________________________________ 8
Shipbuilding industry expanded _____________________________________________________________________ 8
High inventories and a high base weighed on the home appliance sector ____________________________________ 9
Appendix: Methodology _______________________________________________________ 10
2
Read-through of SMM Monthly PMI
SMM May PMI fell from April, indicating a slower demand growth
The SMM composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in May was 51.71, down 4.26 from April, in line with our
expectations of a strong demand season in 2Q but demand growth to slow down in May and June. China’s
official PMI released by the NBS in May gained 0.5 from April to 51.9. Through our correlation analysis, the SMM
composite PMI is 6-7 months ahead of the official PMI, and the correlation coefficient between SMM PMI
(deferred by 6-7 months) and NBS PMI is 0.85.
Auto and shipbuilding performed well in May
Auto: SMM is optimistic on auto sector in 2018 due to low inventories and a low base of output and sales. The
SMM auto PMI stood at 55.65 in May, down slightly by 0.61 from April and up 144% year-on-year. This is
supported by China’s output and sales volume of vehicles released by China Association of Automobile
Manufacturers (CAAM), which was up 11.47% and 12.27% respectively year-on-year in April. Shipbuilding:
The demand from shipbuilding improved. The SMM shipbuilding PMI in May rose 0.53 from April and 31%
year-on-year to 56.01. According to MIIT, new orders at shipyards in January-April rose 171% year-on-year.
SMM expects real estate and infrastructure to weaken further
This, together with tighter restrictions on financing, will limit consumption of metals. The SMM construction PMI
(including real estate and infrastructure) dropped 9.47% year-on-year to 51.75 in May, as investments slowed.
NBS data showed that investments in January-April in property and infrastructure grew at a slower pace, in line
with the SMM construction PMI.
Growth in machinery and home appliance to decelerate on the construction cycle
SMM expects that a slower property market will slow down the growth rate of machinery and home appliance.
The SMM machinery PMI in May was 51.25, up 39% year-on-year, but slower than a growth rate of 50% in May
2017. The SMM PMI for home appliances in May grew at the same pace of 103% as May 2017 to 54.11.
Supplies to weigh on prices due to a slower demand in May and June
Funding will be tight at the end of 2Q as demand slows down in May and June. SMM expect supplies of metals
to increase in May and output of copper, lead, zinc, and steel to grow by 17%, 6%, 6% and 7% respectively in
May year-on-year. Prices of metals that have high inventories are likely to be pressured.
Please refer to SMM Monthly Base Metal Output Forecast and SMM Metals Macro Report.
3
Readthrough of SMM May PMI: demand slows down
PMI had risen for 3 consecutive months, May demand slows down as expected
The SMM composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in May was 51.71, down 4.26 from April, in line with our
expectations of a strong demand season in 2Q but demand growth to slow down in May and June. The strong
demand season for construction and machinery has ended according to SMM channel checks with downstream
players. The construction PMI and machinery PMI fell 3.84 and 2.71 respectively from April. The auto PMI
decreased slightly by 0.61, while the shipbuilding PMI rose slightly by 0.53, indicating a stable demand. May is
the peak sales season for home appliance, with the home appliance PMI grew 4.14 from April.
SMM expects demand to continue slowing down in June, and maintain our positive view on auto and
shipbuilding.
Chart 1: SMM Composite PMI Chart 2: SMM Composite PMI breakdown
SMM composite PMI leads NBS PMI by 6-7 months
A correlation analysis shows that the SMM composite SMM leads NBS PMI by 6-7 months, as the latter is based
on finished products while SMM conducts the survey when downstream producers start purchasing raw
materials. The correlation coefficient between SMM PMI (deferred by 6-7 months) and NBS PMI is 0.85, a
significant positive correlation.
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-1
7
Mar-
17
May-1
7
Jul-17
Sep-1
7
Nov-1
7
Jan-1
8
Mar-
18
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
Jan-1
7
Mar-
17
May-1
7
Jul-17
Sep-1
7
Nov-1
7
Jan-1
8
Mar-
18
May-1
8
construction machinery
auto home appliance
shipbuilding transport
composite PMI-RHS
4
Chart 3: Growth rates of SMM composite PMI, NBS PMI Chart 4: SMM composite PMI six-seven months before NBS PMI
Inventories of finished products likely to grow in the short term
The SMM production index stood at 53.49 in May, down 14.84 from April and 21.5% year-on-year. The index
leads inventories of finished products at industrial enterprises by 8-9 months, according to our correlation
analysis. The correlation coefficient between the two is 0.9 (defer SMM production index by 8-9 months), a
significant positive correlation. During August 2015 - June 2016, higher sales lowered inventories across
producers. Manufacturers stockpiled actively in July 2016 -April 2017. Currently, firms are stockpiling at a slower
rate and this will grow inventories of finished products at industrial enterprises in the short term.
Chart 5: SMM Composite PMI Chart 6: SMM Composite PMI breakdown
Chart 7: Inventories of finished products at industrial enterprises year-on-year (Inventory cycle in China)
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Jul-10
Mar-
11
Nov-1
1
Jul-12
Mar-
13
Nov-1
3
Jul-14
Mar-
15
Nov-1
5
Jul-16
Mar-
17
Nov-1
7
SMM-PMI-YoY
NBS-PMI-YoY-RHS
0.76
0.79
0.81
0.82
0.84
0.85 0.85 0.85
0.84 0.84
0.81
0.72
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.86
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
SMM/NBS PMI correlation
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Feb-1
1
Aug-1
1
Feb-1
2
Aug-1
2
Feb-1
3
Aug-1
3
Feb-1
4
Aug-1
4
Feb-1
5
Aug-1
5
Feb-1
6
Aug-1
6
Feb-1
7
Aug-1
7
Feb-1
8
SMM-manufacuture-YoY
inventory-YoY-RHS
%
0.74
0.78
0.82
0.85
0.87
0.89
0.90 0.90
0.89
0.87
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
SMM-manufacture/inventory correlation
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Feb-0
0
Aug-0
1
Mar-
03
Sep-0
4
Apr-
06
Feb-0
9
Nov-1
1
Jun-1
3
Dec-
14
Jul-16
Feb-1
8
5
Currently, prices are driven by demand
The correlation coefficients between SMM PMI and the monthly average prices of copper, aluminium and rebar
stay at 0.88, 0.82 and 0.92, respectively, after 2012. Metal prices are mainly driven by demand following a
slower economic growth in China after 2012. SMM expects metal prices to be pressured as the demand growth
slows down.
Chart 8: SMM PMI vs monthly average price or rebar Chart 9: Correlation coefficient of SMM PMI/ rebar price
Chart 10: SMM PMI vs monthly average price or copper Chart 11: Correlation coefficient of SMM PMI/copper price
Chart 12: SMM PMI vs monthly average price or copper Chart 13: Correlation coefficient of SMM PMI/copper price
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jul-10
Mar-
11
Nov-1
1
Jul-12
Mar-
13
Nov-1
3
Jul-14
Mar-
15
Nov-1
5
Jul-16
Mar-
17
Nov-1
7
rebar monthly average price-YoY
SMM-PMI-YoY-RHS
0.80
0.84
0.87 0.89
0.91 0.92
0.89
0.81
0.75
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jul-10
Feb-1
1
Sep-1
1
Apr-
12
Nov-1
2
Jun-1
3
Jan-1
4
Aug-1
4
Mar-
15
Oct
-15
May-1
6
Dec-
16
Jul-17
Feb-1
8
copper monthly average price-YoY
SMM PMI-YoY-RHS
0.77
0.81
0.85
0.88 0.88
0.85
0.82
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.90
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jul-10
Feb-1
1
Sep-1
1
Apr-
12
Nov-1
2
Jun-1
3
Jan-1
4
Aug-1
4
Mar-
15
Oct
-15
May-1
6
Dec-
16
Jul-17
Feb-1
8
aluminium monthly average price-YoY
SMM PMI-YoY-RHS
0.77
0.77
0.80
0.82
0.79
0.74
0.68
0.65
0.67
0.69
0.71
0.73
0.75
0.77
0.79
0.81
0.83
0.85
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
6
Analysis by sector
Investment growth in the property market slows down
The SMM construction PMI was 51.75 in May, down 9.47% year-on-year, indicating a slower growth of
investment in real estate. China’s investment of real estate development in January-April slowed to 10.3%
year-on-year, according to NBS, in line with the trend of the SMM construction PMI. Land purchase fees mostly
drove investment growth. The slower growth of newly-started floor space suggests that funds were mostly used
for land purchases, and this is a standard move by property developers to increase land purchases for a higher
market share when growth in the industry loses momentum. But this does not augur well for metal consumption.
Property developers will face cash flow issues in the mid to long term as sales slow and financing costs climb.
Overall investment growth in the property market is likely to decline.
The SMM construction PMI leads cumulative land areas purchased by 4-5 months, and the correlation coefficient
between the two is 0.88 (defer SMM construction index by 4-5 months) is 0.88. As Land areas purchased fell 2.1%
in April and SMM construction PMI declined 9.47% year-on-year in May, the growth of land area purchased is
likely to continue slowing down.
Chart 14: SMM PMI vs monthly average price or copper Chart 15: Correlation coefficient of SMM PMI/copper price
Chart 16: Sales vs. floor space completed year-on-year Chart 17: Residential housing for sale and year-on-year change
Source: NBS, SMM
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-1
7
Feb-1
7
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-17
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct
-17
Nov-1
7
Dec-
17
Jan-1
8
Feb-1
8
Mar-
18
Apr-
18 -100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
Jul-10
Feb-1
1
Sep-1
1
Apr-
12
Nov-1
2
Jun-1
3
Jan-1
4
Aug-1
4
Mar-
15
Oct
-15
May-1
6
Dec-
16
Jul-17
Feb-1
8
land purchase area-YoY SMM-construction-YoY-RHS
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
Feb-1
6
Apr-
16
Jun-1
6
Aug-1
6
Oct
-16
Dec-
16
Feb-1
7
Apr-
17
Jun-1
7
Aug-1
7
Oct
-17
Dec-
17
Feb-1
8
Apr-
18
housing completed area-YoY
new operation area-YoY-RHS
%%
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0100200300400500600700800
Feb-1
2
Jul-12
Dec-
12
May-1
3
Oct
-13
Mar-
14
Aug-1
4
Jan-1
5
Jun-1
5
Nov-1
5
Apr-
16
Sep-1
6
Feb-1
7
Jul-17
Dec-
17
area for sales YoY-RHSmn meter square %
7
Investment in infrastructure declined
The fixed-assets investment in January-April grew 7% year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage point from
January-March. Year-on-year growth of fixed-assets investment in infrastructure projects (excl. electric power
and heat power) stood at 12.4% in January-April, down 0.6 percentage point from January-March. China’s
fixed-assets investment and infrastructure investment are likely to extend their declines given tighter controls
over the local government’s debts, rising costs for financing, and deleveraging.
Chart 18: Sales vs. floor space completed year-on-year Chart 19: Residential housing for sale and year-on-year change
Source: NBS, SMM
Growth in machinery continued, but likely to abate as construction slows down
The SMM machinery PMI was 51.25 in May, down 2.71 from April, and year-on-year growth slowed to 39%.
SMM expects that growth of machinery will continue to decline as the construction sector slows down.
Chart 20: SMM PMI for machinery Chart 21: excavator output lags behind of construction investment
Source: NBS, SMM
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
Feb-1
7
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-17
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct
-17
Nov-1
7
Dec-
17
Jan-1
8
Feb-1
8
Mar-
18
Apr-
18
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Feb-1
7
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-17
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct
-17
Nov-1
7
Dec-
17
Jan-1
8
Feb-1
8
Mar-
18
Apr-
18
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-1
7
Mar-
17
May-1
7
Jul-17
Sep-1
7
Nov-1
7
Jan-1
8
Mar-
18
0
10
20
30
40
(50)
0
50
100
150
Jan-0
8
Aug-0
8
Mar-
09
Oct
-09
May-1
0
Dec-
10
Jul-11
Feb-1
2
Sep-1
2
Apr-
13
Nov-1
3
Jun-1
4
Jan-1
5
Aug-1
5
Mar-
16
Oct
-16
May-1
7
Dec-
17
excavator output-YoY
FA planed investment-YoY-RHS
%
8
Low inventories and a low base boosted sales and production of autos
The SMM auto PMI was 55.65 in May, down slightly by 0.61 from April, but year-on-year growth accelerated to
124%. This is supported by China’s output and sales volume of vehicles released by China Association of
Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), which was up 11.47% and 12.27% respectively year-on-year in April. The
auto sector is going through a new round of inventory cycle in 2018 after previous rounds during 2014-2015 and
2016-2017, based on vehicle inventory alert index released by the China Automobile Dealers Association. A
lower purchase tax that drove the early release of demand in 2016 accounted for slower growth of automobile
production and sales in 2017. However, demand and restocking will rebound in 2018, boosting demand for
metals.
Chart 22: SMM PMI for auto Chart 23: Automobile output and year-on-year growth
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacture, SMM
Shipbuilding industry expanded
The SMM PMI for shipbuilding in May was 56.01, up 0.53 from April and year-on-year growth reversed from -21%
a year ago to 31%. The industry grew significantly as the 8-10 year Juglar cycle set in. New orders in January –
April surged 171% year-on-year to 18.02 million dead weight tonnage (DWT), according to MIIT. This bolstered
demand for medium plates and widened the price spread between the medium plates and HRC to 150-200
yuan/mt in May.
Chart 24: SMM PMI for shipbuilding Chart 25: New orders and year-on-year growth
Source: MIIT, SMM
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-1
7
Feb-1
7
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-17
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct
-17
Nov-1
7
Dec-
17
Jan-1
8
Feb-1
8
Mar-
18
Apr-
18
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan-1
7
Mar-
17
May-1
7
Jul-17
Sep-1
7
Nov-1
7
Jan-1
8
Mar-
18
auto output volume YoY-RHS1,000 units %
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
Jan-1
7
Feb-1
7
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-17
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct
-17
Nov-1
7
Dec-
17
Jan-1
8
Feb-1
8
Mar-
18
Apr-
18 -200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Feb-1
2
Aug-1
2
Feb-1
3
Aug-1
3
Feb-1
4
Aug-1
4
Feb-1
5
Aug-1
5
Feb-1
6
Aug-1
6
Feb-1
7
Aug-1
7
Feb-1
8
shipbuilding order
YoY-RHS
1,000 ton
9
High inventories and a high base weighed on the home appliance sector
The SMM PMI for home appliances was 54.11 in May, up 4.14 from April, and year-on-year growth stayed flat at
103%. China’s output and sale volume of air-conditioners was 16.84 and 17.19 million units, respectively, in
April, according to ChinaIOL, and the year-on-year growth narrowed to 16.9% and 17.5% due to a higher base
April 2017. Inventories of air-conditioners in December 2017 and March 2018 grew 44.3% and 33.1%,
respectively, from the start of the year, according to NBS. SMM expects the growth of home appliance sector will
continue to decline, due to high inventories, a high base, and a slowdown in construction sector.
Chart 26: SMM PMI for home appliances Chart 27: SMM home appliances PMI and output of air-conditioners
Source: Industrial Online, SMM
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-1
7
Feb-1
7
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-17
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct
-17
Nov-1
7
Dec-
17
Jan-1
8
Feb-1
8
Mar-
18
Apr-
18
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
Jul-10
Jan-1
1
Jul-11
Jan-1
2
Jul-12
Jan-1
3
Jul-13
Jan-1
4
Jul-14
Jan-1
5
Jul-15
Jan-1
6
Jul-16
Jan-1
7
Jul-17
Jan-1
8
air conditioner output-YoY
SMM home appliance-RHS
10
Appendix: Methodology
Year-on-year growth rate of PMI
Calculating the year-on-year growth of the PMI: The PMI reflects monthly changes in economic conditions, so
SMM calculates the year-on-year growth of PMI from monthly changes. The table and formula below shows how
SMM calculates the year-on-year growth of PMI in May.
𝑃𝑀𝐼 𝑦𝑜𝑦 =𝟓𝟏. 𝟕 ∗ 𝟓𝟏. 𝟒 ∗ 𝟓𝟏. 𝟕 ∗ 𝟓𝟐. 𝟒 ∗ 𝟓𝟏. 𝟔 ∗ 𝟓𝟏. 𝟖 ∗ 𝟓𝟏. 𝟔 ∗ 𝟓𝟏. 𝟑 ∗ 𝟓𝟎. 𝟑 ∗ 𝟓𝟏. 𝟓 ∗ 𝟓𝟏. 𝟒 ∗ 𝟓𝟏. 𝟗
5012 − 1
Table 1: NBS Manufacturing PMI
Source: NBS, SMM
Table 2: SMM PMI by Sector
Source: SMM
Chart 28: Year-on-year growth of SMM construction PMI Chart 29: Year-on-year growth of SMM machinery PMI
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jul-10
Jan-1
1
Jul-11
Jan-1
2
Jul-12
Jan-1
3
Jul-13
Jan-1
4
Jul-14
Jan-1
5
Jul-15
Jan-1
6
Jul-16
Jan-1
7
Jul-17
Jan-1
8
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Jul-10
Jan-1
1
Jul-11
Jan-1
2
Jul-12
Jan-1
3
Jul-13
Jan-1
4
Jul-14
Jan-1
5
Jul-15
Jan-1
6
Jul-16
Jan-1
7
Jul-17
Jan-1
8
11
Chart 30: Year-on-year growth of SMM auto PMI Chart 31: Year-on-year growth of SMM home appliances PMI
Chart 32: Year-on-year growth of SMM shipbuilding PMI Chart 33: Year-on-year growth of SMM transportation PMI
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Jul-10
Feb-1
1
Sep-1
1
Apr-
12
Nov-1
2
Jun-1
3
Jan-1
4
Aug-1
4
Mar-
15
Oct
-15
May-1
6
Dec-
16
Jul-17
Feb-1
8-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
Jul-10
Jan-1
1
Jul-11
Jan-1
2
Jul-12
Jan-1
3
Jul-13
Jan-1
4
Jul-14
Jan-1
5
Jul-15
Jan-1
6
Jul-16
Jan-1
7
Jul-17
Jan-1
8
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Jul-10
Jan-1
1
Jul-11
Jan-1
2
Jul-12
Jan-1
3
Jul-13
Jan-1
4
Jul-14
Jan-1
5
Jul-15
Jan-1
6
Jul-16
Jan-1
7
Jul-17
Jan-1
8
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%Ju
l-10
Jan-1
1
Jul-11
Jan-1
2
Jul-12
Jan-1
3
Jul-13
Jan-1
4
Jul-14
Jan-1
5
Jul-15
Jan-1
6
Jul-16
Jan-1
7
Jul-17
Jan-1
8
12
Related Research
1. SMM Metals Strategy Monthly Report (Issue 1, May 3, 2018)
2. SMM Monthly Base Metal Output Forecast (Issue 1, May 8, 2018)
3. SMM Metal Strategy Monthly Report (Issue 1, June 5, 2018)
4. Demand of Cobalt and Nickel to Benefit from China's EV Subsidy Policy in 2018
5. 2018 Annual Copper TC Set at US$82.25/ton; SMM Bullish on 2018 Copper Prices
6. China's Supply-Side Reform Continues to Reduce Capacity
7. China's Elimination on Excess Capacity in Steel Continue to Act Positively
8. Spot Copper Concentrate TCs Fall Further in Q2, in Line with SMM Expectation
9. Base Metals Diverge on Rising Supply and Delayed Demand Pickup
10. Aluminium and Nickel Return to Fundamentals with Sanctions on Rusal in Flux
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