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Sustainability Science:Convergence or Confusion?

Rodel D. Lasco

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Outline

Introduction: an environmentally challenged world

Sustainable development: a brief historical review

Sustainability science: an emerging discipline Sustainability science and natural resources

management

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1. Introduction Sustainable development is a widely held social

and political goal (WSSD) World’s present development path is not

sustainable in much of the world, the environment is already

in very bad condition condition of environment is getting worse in many cases local success achieved by

exporting problems (e.g. dirty industries)

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An Environmentally-Challenged World CO2 concentration has increased by 30% since

the industrial revolution; methane, another greenhouse gas, has increased by 100%.

Total annual flux of sulfur to the atmosphere has increased 50% from pre-industrial levels.

About 50% of the total land surface has been transformed, 20% of land ecosystems have been converted to permanent croplands, and 25% of the world’s forests have been cleared.

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At present deforestation rates, tropical rainforests will be gone within 100 years while 50% of all mangrove forests and wetlands have already been destroyed.

About 22% of recognized marine fisheries are overexploited or already depleted and 44% more are at their limit of exploitation.

Extinction rates are increasing sharply in marine and terrestrial ecosystems around the world.

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Warming Climate

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Vanishing biodiversity

1-11% of species are being lost every 10 years. Of 250,000-270,000 species of plants, 13% are

threatened globally Philippines is a megadiversity and a hotspot most diverse country per unit area with about

50% endemism. 418 species are listed as threatened in the 2000

IUCN Red List.

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Changing land cover

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

M ha

1500 1900 1934 1988 1996

Year

Fig. 3 Philippine Forest Area (Million ha)

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Fig. 4 Area of secondary forest and primary forest in the Philippines (Source: FMB, various dates)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1971 1972 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1984 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Year

Are

a ('

000

ha)

Secondary Forest

Primary forest

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2. Sustainable Development: A Review Brundtland Commission (1987): “Development

that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of the future generations to meet their own needs…”

Since then: SD has transformed ideology, language and presentation of ideas

Essence: meeting fundamental human needs while preserving the life support systems of the planet

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WHAT IS TO BE SUSTAINED:

NATUREEarthBiodiversityEcosystems

LIFE SUPPORTEcosystem servicesResourcesEnvironment

COMMUNITYCulturesGroups Places

WHAT IS TO BEDEVELOPED:

PEOPLEChild survivalLife expectancyEducationEquityEqual opportunity

ECONOMYWealthProductive sectorsConsumption

SOCIETYInstitutionsSocial capitalStatesRegions

FOR HOW LONG?

25 years“Now and in the future”

Forever

LINKED BYOnly

MostlyButAndOr

Aspects where proponents of sustainable development differ Source: National Research Council, Board on Sustainable Development. 1999

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System Goals and Targets Target Year

Sources

Water Give to the satisfaction of basic needs and the safeguarding of ecosystems. National water conservation activities to prevent and control water pollution and protect groundwater

2000 UNCED, 1992

Atmosphere and Climate

Sulfur Reduce deposition of oxidized sulfur to below critical loads

N/A Sulfur Protocol (1994)

Nitrogen oxides (NOx)

Reduce emissions to, at most, 1987 levels

1994 NOx Protocol

(1988)

Volatile organic compounds (VOC)

Reduce emissions by 30-100% of 1988 levels

1999 VOC Protocol (1991)

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Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)

Complete phase out of specified forms of CFCs and halocarbons

1992 Montreal Protocol (1987, amended 1990, 1991, 1992)

Greenhouse gases (specified forms)

Prevent dangerous human interference in the climate system; reduce emissions by at least 5% below 1990 levels for industrial nations

2008-2012

Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992); Kyoto Protocol (1997)

Oceans Prevent, reduce, and control pollution and other hazards to the marine environment

N/A UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982)

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Species and Ecosystems

Whales Moratorium on harvesting of commercially exploited stocks

1986 International Whaling Commission

Fish Ensure the optimum sustainable yield of fish and living resources

N/A Convention on Fishing and Conservation of the Living Resources of the High Seas (1958)

Birds Prevent destruction of indigenous or migratory species

N/A International Convention for the Protection of Birds (1950_

Biodiversity Conserve biological diversity N/A Convention on Biological Diversity (1992)

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Since 1987: Mixed results

Modest agenda of the Brundtland and Rio did not materialize

Environment continues to deteriorate But many local success SD has entered mainstream thinking

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3. Sustainability Science: An Emerging Discipline scientists representing a wide array of

disciplines have banded together to find ways in which the S and T community could exert more influence in promoting sustainable development

S and T are central to both the origins of sustainability challenges, and to prospects of successfully dealing with them

requires the emergence and conduct of a new field of study.

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SS seeks to improve on the substantial but still limited understanding of nature-society interactions

premised on the need for a better understanding of the complex and dynamic interactions between society and nature

requires fundamental advances in to address such issues as the behavior of complex self-organizing systems as well as the responses of the nature-society system to multiple and interacting stresses

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3.2 Research Themes and Strategies

The nature of sustainability science dictates that new methods and approaches be developed and used

Span the range of spatial scales between diverse phenomena (e.g. economic globalization and local farming practices)

Account for both the temporal inertia and urgency of processes (e.g. ozone depletion)

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Deal with functional complexity (e.g. environmental degradation resulting from multiple stresses)

Recognize the wide range of outlooks regarding what makes knowledge useable within both science and society

Scientific exploration and practical application must occur simultaneously

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Core Questions of Sustainability Science

Q1: How can the dynamic interactions between nature and society be better incorporated into emerging models and conceptualizations that integrate the Earth system, human development, and sustainability?

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Q2: How are long term trends in environment and development, including consumption and population, reshaping nature-society interactions in ways relevant to sustainability?

Q3: What determines the vulnerability or resilience of the nature-society system in particular kinds of places and for particular types of ecosystems and human livelihoods?

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Q4: Can scientifically meaningful “limits” or “boundaries” be defined that would provide effective warning of conditions beyond which the nature-society systems incur a significantly increased risk of serious degradation?

Q5: What systems of incentive structures—including markets, rules, norms, and scientific information- can most effectively improve social capacity to guide interactions between nature and society toward more sustainable trajectories?

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Q6: How can today’s operational systems for monitoring and reporting on environmental and social conditions be integrated or extended to provide more useful guidance for efforts to navigate a transition toward sustainability?

Q7: How can today’s relatively independent activities of research planning, monitoring, assessment and decision support be better integrated into systems for adaptive management and societal learning?

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Science and society: a new contract

large gap between what scientists think they can offer and what society has demanded and supported

S and T community must convince society that it can offer solutions to sustainability problems

society must be ready to commit greater support for research and development efforts.

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an enhanced level of collaboration between the S and T community and the various of sectors of society needed

improved dialogue between researchers and problem-solvers pursuing sustainability goals.

Partnership with the private sector must also be cultivated as they drive much of the research efforts in certain fields.

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Reaching decision makers

Saliency: an important problem/solution seen as urgent by society

Clarity: a core message that is succinct, with quantitative indicators

Credibility: transparent, representing the views of prominent scientists

Constructive: action oriented, offering policy options without being prescriptive

Legitimacy: supported by government, private sector, and civil society

Vision: basic and applied knowledge that provides early warning

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Some Caveats appears to exclude many of the conventional

disciplines (e.g. plant genetics, immunology); appears to be a bias toward their fields of interest (e.g. climate change).

Implies that the complexity of human-nature interaction can be embraced within a single intellectual endeavor; a “science of everything”.

danger of encouraging new forms of exclusivity by identifying a need for new discipline rather than new ways of doing conventional science.

Proponents could be seen as building a new intellectual power base. Danger: being an end in itself.

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5. SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE AND NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT Filipino scientists to focus their energy in finding

solutions that will help guide policy decisions. Case: sustainable forest management Much of the debate on the issue is perhaps

guided more by emotions rather than sound science

harvesting of natural forests (logging) can be viewed from a nature-society interaction perspective

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From this vantage point, sustainable forest management is more than just tree cutting and regeneration

If this is merely cutting trees, then it is just a question of silviculture (ie. regeneration after cutting).

logging entails a whole series of interlocking interactions between man and the forest ecosystem

the question is not, can the forest be logged sustainably?

The answer to this question is invariably yes given the capacity of the forests to regenerate.

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But what if the question is, can forests be logged sustainably given:

(a) the condition existing in much of rural upland communities in the Philippines,

(b) the administrative structure and competence of government regulatory agencies,

(c) the political dynamics at the local level, etc.? Will the answer be the same?

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several scales to this interaction lowest level: poverty of local people could be the

driving force behind tree cutting national level: the supply and demand for wood

products dictates how much trees are cut The challenge for scientists to find solutions on

how forests can be managed to attain a sustainable trajectory considering the whole gamut of nature-society interactions.

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In the Philippine context, this implies the need for natural resource scientists to be more active in the policy arena.

They must be sensitive to the needs of policy makers and civil society.

They should craft a research agenda that will help find solutions to their nagging problems.

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6. Conclusions

Sustainable development is the common aspiration of humanity today.

It is a journey whose ultimate result will determine how future generations will fare.

However, it is also a journey where the road map is at best sketchy.

We learn to navigate as we move along.

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The S and T community does not have a monopoly of knowledge.

But because of their advanced learning in the natural and social sciences, they are in a unique position to grapple with the issue of sustainability.

In collaboration with other stakeholders, they should use the tools of science to help mankind attain this dream.