Ray Moy December 01, 2010 Federal Aviation Administration Research, Requirements and Transition

Ray Moy

December 01, 2010

Federal AviationAdministrationResearch,

Requirements and Transition

2Federal AviationAdministration

Weather Research Review December 01, 2010

Agenda

• NextGen Evolution and Weather Requirements• Research Transition• Weather Product Access and Processing• Weather Product Translation and Integration



Building Towards NextGen

•2009 •2013 •2018 •2025 (FOC)•Prob. •Increased Coverage•Deterministic

•Aviation Wx HazardsAviation Wx Hazards

•Aviation Wx InfoAviation Wx Info

•Enhanced Accuracy/Longer Lead Times•Enhanced Accuracy/Longer Lead Times

•4•Federal Aviation•Administration

Weather Research Review

December 01, 2010

Sample Requirements Matrix for Convection

Property Current CDM (CCFP) IOC (CoSPA (1.0) FOC

Weather Parameter 2-D convective coverage

2-D VIL and Echo Tops

3-D Convective Hazards (hail, lightning, CIT, wind shear, tornados, etc)

Spatial Resolution (horizontal)

N/A 3km 1km (Enroute)

0.5km (SD Terminal)

Temporal Resolution 2hrs 15 minutes 15min <2hrs (Enroute)

1hr 2-60 hrs (Enroute)

Update Rate 2hrs 15 minutes (5 minutes < 2hrs)

10min <2hrs (Enroute)

30-60min 2-10h (Enroute)

Forecast Horizon 6hrs 8hrs 7 days

Deterministic (D) or Probabalistic (P)?

P (levels of confidence)

D D & P

Latency 2hrs 2hrs 5 min <2hrs (Enroute)

15min 2-4hrs (Enroute)

Accuracy TBD TBD 92%, ≤ 2 hrs

88%, ≤ 2-4 hrs

85%, ≤ 4-10 hrs

82%, ≤ 10-24h

75%, ≤ 24-60 h

60%, ≤ 60 h- 7d

Coverage CONUS CONUS Global



Aviation Wx Research Transition

• Wx research and transition to be managed in accordance with Research for Service Analysis (RSA)– Matures ops concepts, reduces risk, and/or defines requirements– Performs portfolio management to ensure alignment across related

initiatives as maturing concepts move through the AMS lifecycle • During RSA, two key activities are performed:

– Research Engineering and Development (RE&D) Activities to gain knowledge/ understanding of science and concepts that could potentially benefit the aviation community

– Concept Maturity and Technology Development (CMTD) activities mature and evaluate concepts, inform acquisition management System (AMS)

• Feasibility studies• Technical analyses• Prototype demonstrations• Operational assessments



• 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube Will contain:– Continuously updated weather observations

– High resolution analysis and forecast information• Turbulence

• Icing

• Convection

• Ceiling and visibility

• Winds (surface and aloft)

• Others

• All made commonly accessible to users

• Conceptual cube, not all in one location

Weather Data Access- 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube



Weather Data Access-NNEW

• FAA’s infrastructure for aviation weather information dissemination– Information provided from NWS’ NextGen 4-D Weather Data

Cube– Tailored information provided by value added services – Dissemination of Weather Translations

• Makes available FAA weather products including FAA observations to NWS



NextGen Weather Processor (NWP)

• Re-hosts and streamlines the current weather processing systems

• Provides translation of weather information for integration to support ATM decisions

• Designed to handle the addition of new Wx products to support new decision support tools



4D Wx

SAS

Performance Feedback

Weather Information

Translated Weather

Impact Estimate

NextGen Weather Integration Concept

e.g., Convective Weather Avoidance

Model (CWAM)

Weather Avoidance Fields (WAF)

e.g., Turbulence, Icing, Convection



Translating Weather to Impacts

Weather Translation Techniques

Estimated AirspaceAvailability

Precipitation Echo Tops

Pilot Deviation Prob

Weather Avoidance Field (WAF) -10 min

+10 min

+20 min

0 min

FCAA05

-10 min

+10 min

+20 min

0 min

FCAA08



Integration Evolution • Near Term -- Route/Volume Data Extractor for utilization in DSTs. Initial translation service.

• Mid Term – Translations integrated into DSTs. • New datasets will be available that translate weather information into threshold events or NAS constraints.

• Far Term –Fully automated translations including advanced weather data.

* Translations in use to support decision making will be available to users (e.g., FOC, Flight Deck) to allow for common situational awareness



BACKUP 1



Primary: NWS FAA-MET FAA-ATM

State of the NAS

NextGen 4-D Wx Cube / SAS

•Observations

•Sensors

•Reports

Met Community ATM CommunityResearch Community & Components

State of the Atmosphere

* Translation of weather data & other components into

characterization of potential NAS constraints

** Conversion of potential NAS constraint into

specific NAS impact(s).

*** DSTs use specific NAS impact to develop strategic/ tactical TFM

strategies.

Th

resh

old

s/B

ehav

ior

Direct FAA Users

Direct

Exte

rnal

Users

NextGen Weather Integration Concept



NNEW Implementation

• Application will ride on the System Wide Information Management (SWIM) Segment 1 and 2 platforms

• Development of the NNEW Software Platform will be accomplished by the NNEW Program Office

• Allocation of NNEW hardware infrastructure will be determined as part of the Investment Strategy



A special subset of the wx cube:4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source

• Is only a portion of the 4-D Weather Data Cube

• Provides a source for decisions by the ANSP (FAA in the US) in collaboration with airlines and other users

– May be a single chosen source

– May be generated by intelligent merger of multiple sources

• To be the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management in the FAA

• Freely accessible by users

• All will know what the FAA is using for its weather decisions, but airlines and other users can choose to believe other sources



Highlights• NNEW 4-D Wx Data Cube

• NNEW Interagency Capability Evaluation, Sep 2010

• Processing and Integration Demonstrations• In-situ Turbulence Demonstration, Ongoing•CoSPA/LCH Convective Forecast Demonstration, Jun-Sep 2010

• Weather integrated into TBFM - NextGen Integrated Airport (ERAU) Evaluation, 2011

• Plans and Requirements • ATM Weather Integration Plan v2.0, Sep 2010• Observation Rightsizing Analysis Report, Dec 2010 • Liquid Water Equivalent Initial Requirements Document, July 2010

Documents

Ray Moy December 01, 2010 Federal Aviation Administration Research, Requirements and Transition