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RAO UES of Russia: Investment Stage of the Reform
9th Russian Economic Forum
London
24.04.2006
Anatoly Chubais Chairman of the Management Board
RAO “UES of Russia”
2
Maximum Load of Russian Power Plants
Source: RAO UES of Russia
143.5141.6
153.1
138.6142
139.1
133.5133.4130.3
135.3134.1
136.5
144.7148.3
157
160.1
100
125
150
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Th
sd M
WLoad of UES of Russia: Approaching a new consumption maximum
Electric Power Industry: New Trends
3
Regional Energy Systems : Exceeding the consumption maximum of the Soviet period
Source: RAO UES of Russia
102 104 105 106108 110 110
115121
124
160
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Udmurti
a
Vologda
Karel
ia
Belgoro
d
Kuban
Astra
khan
Lenin
grad
Tyum
en
Kalin
ingra
d
Mosc
ow
Dages
tan
2006 vs. 1990, %
1990 = 100%
On March 28, 2006 the list of top-priority projects for 19 400 MW was approved.
Russian power industry needs badly full scale long term investments
4
Electric Power Industry Reform: adjusting tactics while keeping strategy intact
Key Components of the Reform: Completion Status
200770% 4. Development of a markets system (for electric power, capacity, and ancillary services).
200770% 3. Setting up generation companies (WGCs and TGCs)
200770% 2. Consolidation of trunk grids and consolidation of the dispatching vertical
200690% 1. Split-up of vertically-integrated companies and separation of power generation from grids
Year of Completion% of completion Reform Components
The target of the Reform is not subject to change. The tactics for Reform completion require adjustment
The main initial target of the Reform is to launch the investment process
Main Point of Adjustment: Large-scale investments during the final stage of the Reform
rather than upon completion of the Reform.
Investments and the Reform
5
2005
2006
2007FINISH
The Finishing Line was close … Investments and the Reform
2006
2007
2008FINISH
Investment section of the road
but had to be pushed two years further along the road
6
Investments: Concept, sources and objects, volumes
Annual volumes of investments in RAO UES of Russia: 2005-2006 – about $5 bn, by 2008-2009 – about $15 bn.
Reform Concept
Investment Deployment Concept
Budgetinvestments
Competitive sectors (primarily – thermal powergeneration)
Private investments
Monopolistic sectors
Investment Deployment Concept
7
Thermal Power Generation: Mechanisms to attract investments
Investment Deployment Concept
Investment guarantee mechanism
Direct private investments
in local projects
Additional share issue of WGCs and TGCs
Private placement
Public placement
Project financing
Thermal power generation - a top priority object for investments
2/3 of electric power generation in Russia
8
Additional Share Issue of WGCs and TGCs
The logic and sequence of actionswas proposed by management and preliminarily approved by the Board of Directors.
It is up to the Russian Government to make key decision.
WGC-3, WGC-4, WGC-5, TGC-1, TGC-3, TGC-5, TGC-8, TGC-9, TGC-10
Selection of project consultants is starting as well as meetings with potential investors. Special conference for investors into above projects is planned for June 2006.
3-4 companies selected from the approved list of candidates will comprise a short list to make a decision on additional issue and placement of shares.
June 2006: RAO UES Board of Directors is expected to make a relevant decision on 3-4 companies to undergo share issue.
Long list of generation companies – top candidates for additional issue and placement of shares has been reviewed and approved by RAO UES management board In all cases,
placement of additionally issued shares is a tool for attracting investments in preselected projects with
total capacity of
6,700 MW
New Companies: Top-priority Projects
9
Additional Share Issue of WGCs and TGCs: Timeline
New Companies: Top-priority Projects
2006
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10-12'01-03
• Preparation and approval of the top candidates list
• Selection of consultants
• Consultations with potential investors
• Negotiations with shareholders
Preparation for share placement
Implementation of pilot projects
Selection of 3 to 4 pilot WGCs and TGCs from the top candidates list and approval of their share placement plans
10
WGC-5:Example of preparedness for share placement
Sources: MICEX; analysts reports (Aton, TroikaDialog, RenCap, MegatrustOil)
1.0
2.0
4.0
Current Mcap
19 Apr. 06
2.39
14 Sep. 05
(1st trading day)
Independent Appraiser’s evaluation
1.5
0.9
0.962
Analyst evaluation (min/max)
Prior to trading estimates
Current Mcap
$ bln
3.0 • Installed Capacity – 8,672 MW(5.53% of overall RAO UES’ installed capacity)
WGC 5
• Shares are traded on RTS, MICEX
• GDRs will be traded on London and Frankfurt stock exchanges
New Companies: Top-priority Projects
11
Reorganization of RAO UES of Russia:Pro rata principle for protection of shareholder rights
RAO UES of Russia
•Spin-off of 1-2 generation companies from the following candidates:
WGC-3, WGC-5, TGC-5
Shareholders Meeting (before the end of 2006)… Shareholders Meeting (in 2008)
• Reorganization of RAO UES of Russia by wayof split-up;• Pro rata distribution of the Company’s assetsamong shareholders;• Transfer of functions to the Government andinfrastructural entities of the energy industry