R&D for Sustainable Energy Dr. Gerd Eisenbeiß Buenos Aires

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R&D for Sustainable Energy

Dr. Gerd EisenbeißBuenos Aires, 14. Nov. 2008

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What I am going to speak about...• energy situation and

objectives• Germany: budgets,

structures and priorities • r&d strategies:

(not to be presented but available as handout)

• conclusion

• understanding of climate change

• impact of climate change• efficient technologies • new technologies, esp. in

energy• adaptation strategies• political concepts

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1242 1622 2072 2539

428 653 951 12670

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2002 2010 2020 2030 2002 2010 2020 2030

World (rest)OECD (rest)OECD-EuropeUSA/CanadaRussiaIndiaChina

Mio. toe

Electricity

Total Primary Energy Supply

Source: WEO2004, OECD

Mankind is obviously facing a big problem:

- 6,5 to 9 billion people want to live in prosperityand need large amounts of cheap energy

situation & objectives

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Mankind is obviously facing a big problem:

- 6,5 to 9 billion people want to live in prosperityand need large amounts of cheap energy

- this is driving the energy prices upwards, esp. oil, then gas and later on also coal, and uranium, too.

Depletion of hydrocarbons is the 1st bottleneck.


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But we know:- burning hydrocarbons and coal produces CO2

- CO2 causes climate change and global warming: 1° in the last 150 years

and it is accelerating, e.g. by methane from arctic regions


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Global warming causes many social and economic damages, even catastrophes (e.g. floods and droughts, sea level rise, vanishing of glaciers, spread of diseases).

The disposal of CO2 is the 2nd bottleneck


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The evolution of men never taught us global solidarity or intergenerational justice.

Most people see our planet still as an almost infinite environment that is not really affected

by their life, habits and consumption.

Thus, the global necessity of climate protection and sustainability in general is an

unprecedented challenge.

The man himself is the 3rd bottleneck


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The German Energy Situationsituation & objectives

Electricity production 2006: coal 45%, fission 26%, gas 12%, hydro 4%, other renewables 8%

consumption imports sustainability2007 (PJ) 2006

oil 4.701 96% nohard coal 1.990 66% only with CCSlignite 1.612 -1% only with CCSgas 3.118 84% CCS desirablefission 1.533 100% nohydro&wind 217 0% yesnet electr. Import -68 0% -waste, wood etc 775 0% yes

13.878 74% has to be improved!

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Strategies: solar energy

renewable electricity produced

biomass

hydro

wind

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Political Objectives of Aug. 2007 for 2020situation & objectives

These objectives are part of the EU energy & climate policy

CO2 reduction (basis 1990) 40%

RE share in heat 14%

RE share in electricity production 25-30%

Co-generation share in electricity 25%

RE share in fuel for transport ! 10%

Aver. fuel consumption of car fleets ! 5l/100km

Improvements of buildings etc etc etc

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Federal Government: budget for energy researchgov. budgets, structures & priorities

2008 (million €)efficiency 195 renewables 165 nuclear safety 70 fusion 135

565

almost the same amount for climate- and sustainability research

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Federal Government: responsibilities

resp. Federal Ministries

efficiency economics and technologyeducation and researchtransport

renewables environmenteducation and researchagriculture

nuclear safety economics and technologyeducation and research

fusion education and research

gov. budgets, structures & priorities

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Federal Government: thematic priorities

efficiency power generation/CCSfuel cells/hydrgen

renewables photovoltaics wind (off shore)biomass solar power (th)geothermal

nuclear safetyreactor safty final storage

fusion ITER (Tokamak) W7X (Stellerator)technology physics


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BMU projects 2007 gov. budgets, structures & priorities

more for off shore wind and solarthermal power (CSP)

2007terminated starting

project volumina (% of about 96 M€)photovoltaics 48 41wind 17 34geothermal 22 8solar heat 6 7solarth. power 3 6other Res 3 4

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Energy research organizations/institutes

UniversitiesHelmholtz centers (national labs)Fraunhofer institutes many ad hoc or Max-Planck institutes institutionalised

researchpublic-private partnership institutions associations

industrial r&d labs


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r&d strategies for a sustainable energy future

4 big options:

• efficiency/conservation

• solar energy

• coal

• nuclear fusion

4 medium sized options:

• water power

• wind power

• biomass

• nuclear fission

and a few smaller options with sometimes regional importance like geothermal or ocean energies

Strategies

Smart grids and integrated systems encessary!

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Other r&d strategies against climate change and its consequences

(resp. ministry: education and research, BMBF)

• why climate change and how it works

• global change and regional impact

• sustainable economy/ material efficiency

• innovation research and technology assessment

• socio-economical innovations/concepts

• protection technologies against dangers from climate change

Strategies

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Annual bilateral calls for Science & Technology Cooperation projectsWorkshops and innovation fora on specific issuesExploratory contact travels to potential partners

Instruments for the Support of ST Cooperation

In general, all the instruments are open for applications from research institutes and SME. Joint projects of research institutes and companies are very welcome.

Co-operation

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Environmental research and technology 23

Others 3New materials 5

Geosciences 6

Marine and polar research

7

Information technologies 7

Biosciences and biotechn.

14

Medical research 17

Priority Countries: ARG, BRA, CHL and MEX

Research areas of the 82 Mobility Projects Funded by the International Bureau in 2007

Co-operation

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STC with Argentina since 1969

Steering committee: Joint Commission for Cooperation in Scientific Research and Technological Development (last meeting in 1997)

Examples of Excellent Cooperation :New partner institute of Max-Planck-Society (second world wide) at Argentinean Center of excellence for Biomedicine (foundation in December 2007)

International Master Programme in Biomedical Sciences (universities of Freiburg and Buenos Aires)

Co-operation

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Thanks for yourattention

More about sustainable energy technologies in the handout and www.amrehsprung.de

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Sustainability needs improvements of efficiency in almost everything!

High prices are the best instrument in order to stimulate industrial r&d as well as private changes in consumption.

Strategies: efficiency

Poor results since 1990:

UK and D +1,8%, USA +1,6%, F +0,6%, I +0,3%, CH +0,3%, Japan 0%, E -0,3%

average Annex II countries: 1% per year)

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Coal is abundantly available, probable less expensive than others but the climate killer.

For many decades coal will provide the basis of power generation.Its efficiency has to be raised above 50%!High temperature materials are decisive.

Strategies: clean coal

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24/522010 2020 2030 .... 2050 Time

Mid

-term

Long

-term

decentralized

VisionCombined

C+H Economy

Pressurized Conceptsη = 55%

Good Economics

Gasification Concepts with CO2 Capture

η > 50%

Fuel Cell with Micro Gas Turbine

STC η = 50%GTCC η = 65%

Shor

t-ter

m STC η = 55%GTCC η = 70%

Priority CO2 Capture

Priority Economics

centralized

Power PlantClose to

Zero Emissions


The German COORETEC strategy for efficient power and possibly hydrogen production

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CCS (carbon capture and sequestration) means

- higher cost- less efficiency- problems with public acceptance

- problems with competitiveness


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Three r&d strategies:- post-combustion, cleaning the flue gases- pre-combustion, separating CO2 from

hydrogen after the gasification and shift process of a IGCC plant

- coal combustion with pure oxygen, needing a oxygen-nitrogen separation before the gasification (oxy fuel or oxy coal plant)

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… unless coal will be disqualified by its CO2unavoidable production!

Either we succeed in sequestration

or there will be no Kyoto follow up

or - very unlikely - a future without coal use


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Sleipner oil field with CO2 stimulated production

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Nuclear fission will remain a controversial technology in almost all democratic societies

Economic reasons will win over doubts in many countries, hopefully twinned with competence and utmost responsibility!

LWR

reactors in operation

Strategies: nuclear fission

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New developments will help beyond the next generation of EPRs …

Important issues of GIV developments:

-Improved (inherent) safety

-Security against terrorism and military use

-More efficient fuel use (breeding?)

-Reduction of (long-lived) radio-waste

-Safe waste deposits

Strategies: nuclear fission

Olkiluoto (SF)

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The technology of fusion has made great progress over the last 15 years. It is the most important long-term research strategy because of the huge energy potential without fuel shortages.The next big step is the erection of a test reactor called ITER in Cadarache (France).

Strategies: nuclear fusion

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ITER, a TOKAMAK test reactor, has to show that the plasma can “burn”for 8 minutes, generating 10 times more energy than the plasma heating consumes.

7 highly competent partners are sharing the burden of this multi billion $ endeavor: EU/EURATOM, USA, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, India.


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Fusion might become an attractive and acceptable kind of energy technology: - no fuel (lithium and

deuterium) bottlenecks, almost unlimited potential

- no risks of catastrophes- no long-lived dangerous

radio-waste.

75 mg D and 225 mg Li6 are the fuel for 4.000 kWh, a family’s annual electricity demand


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The problems to be solved until a possible start of commercialization in about 40 years are grave, e.g.

- plasma stability over longer burning periods- fast recycling of the Tritium breeded from the fusion

neutrons in the first wall- stability of this first wall suffering about 100

displacement per atom (dpa)- cost, cost, cost

It is still an open question whether and when fusion will be a commercially available energy source but the huge potential justifies the extraordinary effort

in which we are together.


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The most elegant way to use solar energy is intelligent solar architecture saving heating and lighting energy. “Active” components like collectors provide hot water and support heating systems in many countries.Also process heat needed in the temperature range of up to 300°C can be delivered by solar collectors and solar troughs.R&D can still improve on these technologies although they are on the market already.The most economic way to produce solar power is……


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… concentrating solarthermal power as shown since 1990 in California.

Now new plants in Spain

(here ANDASOL I),

Nevada, Algeria etc


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PLANTS IN SPAIN

PS10 and PS20 in Sanlucar, Seville

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Photovoltaic panels offer solar power in rural areas, off grid applications and – due to tremendous subsidies – even connected with a strong and denslyavailable grid like Germany.

Silicon wafer technology is mature and an almost conventional industrial product.Thin film from other materials may become a cheaper alternative in the future


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PV installed

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PV panels have shown an impressive learning curve over 2 decades

But doubts remain about the chances to become a main supply source of electricity

in industrialised countries

Source: T. Surek NREL

0,1

1,0

10,0

100,0

10 100 1.000 10.000 100.000akumulierte Gesamtproduktion (MWp)

PV M

odul

prei

s (€

/Wp)

80%

20% cost cut by doubling of module production20% cost cut by doubling of module production

end of 2005


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Water and wind (on shore) technology are mature technologies with some improvement potential, but less high tech challenge.

Strategies: water & wind

With about 23 GW 25% of all global wind energy capa-city is located in Germany.

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Wind power on its way to the first 100 GW


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Off shore wind is still under development in many countries, if the wind parks are far outside in deep water and operating under rough wind conditions

Nysted wind park with 72 turbines (166 MW)


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Therefore, the arable field and the forests can‘t solve the energy problems; as far as they offer a (sustai-nable) contribution, it will be a contribution to the heat and electricity markets by biogas from wet biomass and by direct (co-)combustion of solid biomass.

Some simple figures about agriculture:

The total global crop of cereals is about 2 billion t, perhaps 4 billion t including leaves, roots and straw.

The coal equivalent of all agro goods including animal feed, vegetables etc is about 2,5 billion t or 20% of the global energy consumption of today.

Strategies: biomass

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Potential in EU 28

Quelle: Weber/Thrän Institut für Energetik und UmweltLeipzig, 2006

Can we really expect energy crops from arable land beyond the rather small amount of waste biomass?

Energy plants

Waste biomass

Wood

10 EJ

Strategies: biomass

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What biomass enthusiasts don’t see:

There is less arable land (and water for agricul-ture) than ever; growth of population, desertifica-tion and deterioration of soils etc will reduce the area per capita from about 0,22 ha to 0,15 ha.

The same billions of Chinese, Indian or Thai people coming to wealth now will not only buy oil, but also more food, especially meat.

The world needs urgently reforestation, not deforestation that is still a main problem in many regions.

Strategies: biomass

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When oil becomes scarce and very expensive …

• Electric mass transport systems will gain market shares

• Natural gas (CNG) or GTL-FT-Diesel will intermediately replace oil

• Coal based FT-Diesel, DME etc will follow • Bio-fuels will be restricted by shortage of waste

biomass, arable land and water

Strategies: fuels for transport

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In the long run:


Coal based liquids are the main solution with or without CCS: hydrogen or CTL Diesel?

Renewables and nuclear electricity• directly loading battery cars or• producing hydrogen via electrolysis for fuel cell cars or ICE cars.

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Electric Cars –Hydrogen against Batteries

electrolysis

water oxygen

or compressed (decentralised/ pipeline?)liquid per truck

transport through the normal grid into the garage

heavy by batteries, short refuelling distance

hydrogen storage, long refuelling distance

for liquifaction or compression

comparison of costs not yet possible


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• electricity is cheaper than gas (hydrogen from electrolysis)

• buildings are well insulated• the heating season is just a few days a year• capital intensive heating systems not cost

effective• hot water tanks can be loaded in off peak times• the alternative of gas from coal/CCS does

not exist?

Strategies: heating of buildings

And why not electric heating of buildings if …

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Mankind is facing an unprecedented challenge- nourishing up to 9 billion people- providing enough low cost energy- stopping global warming and other detrimental

impacts of global change.

conclusion

Energy technologies are the key of a solution - energy saving, efficiency, coal with CCS and

the sun offer valuable contributions- biomass, wind and fission must contribute- fusion opens long-term hope, but after 2050.The importance of electric power will increase,

possibly even for the transport sector!

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Thanks for yourattention

more about the author see www.amrehsprung.de

Documents

R&D for Sustainable Energy Dr. Gerd Eisenbeiß Buenos Aires