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Radar Logic Inc

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Page 1: Radar Logic Inc
Page 2: Radar Logic Inc

Who We Are: Radar Logic is a real estate data and analytics company that uses proprietary technology to produce daily price points for the value of U.S. housing markets. RPX™, the Residential Property Index™, provides the financial and real estate investment communities with efficient tools to analyze housing markets and act on their particular trading and management strategies. RPX has become the leading benchmark for residential property derivatives, enabling institutions to incorporate real estate into investment strategies with new levels of flexibility. Through RPX, investors can now “buy” and “sell” the value of residential real estate without the high costs and long timeframes associated with brick-and- mortar transactions. That reality is redefining the very nature of participation in this asset class.

What We Do: The Radar Logic Daily Prices, calculated and published every business day, are the basis of the RPX. These prices currently track housing values for 25 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), a composite index and the Manhattan condo market using a consistent metric: price per square foot. The daily values are calculated based on established patterns in public record sales data. Over time, the Daily Price “snapshots” depict a moving picture that reveals market trends as they develop. Data are gathered from public source sale records (county or municipal offices) and are published daily by Radar Logic as 1-day, 7-day and 28-day prices. The 1-day and 7-day numbers provide an indication of trends as they emerge, while the 28-day prices represent a more complete picture of the property mix in any given geography. In order to account for delays between the closing date, recording of the sale and data aggregation process we implement a 63 day lag between the date a sale closes and the date it is published by Radar Logic.

Why Residential?• Substantial underlying market value: In excess of $23 trillion* -- the highest value of any real estate asset class in the U.S. and larger than most U.S. financial markets.• Relevance to investors: Vast influence of housing market on many aspects of the global economy makes housing important to most investment portfolios.• Quality of data: High volume and frequency of actual sales transactions protects RPX from outliers skewing Daily Prices. Granularity of submarkets allows for efficient analyses and more creative investment strategies. • Easily measurable: Using price per square foot significantly reduces the influence of property sizes on housing price trends and is an accepted metric used by real estate professionals and investors.

*Flow of Funds Accounts for the United States, Federal Reserve, (December 2007, Table B. 100); includes nonprofit organizations

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What is the RPX™? The RPX (Residential Property Index) market is the framework in which residential property derivatives are traded based on Radar Logic’s Daily Prices. RPX values represent surrogate values for actual prices being paid for residential real estate on any given day. The high degree of relevance to the underlying market makes RPX an efficient platform for investors to express positions on the housing market as part of an overall strategy. It currently comprises indices for 25 MSAs, a 25-MSA composite, and the Manhattan condo market. RPX allows capital market participants to trade the future values of residential real estate in ways similar to other assets traded in the capital markets.

How is RPX Different?

Who is Trading? Radar Logic has licensed many of Wall Street’s largest firms to act as dealers to originate trades in the RPX market. For a complete list of licensed dealers, please go to: www.radarlogic.com/dealers.html

Inclusive: All available residential sales transactions are considered in the calculation of RPX values, including single family, multi-family, condos, new construction, existing homes and foreclosures. The records must include requisite information (closing date, sale price and square footage) and must be received before prices are locked for publication. Transactions that are not considered arm’s length are excluded. This methodology supports an index that mirrors the types of properties sold in each local market (i.e., an increase in condo sales in a specific region will be reflected in its Daily Price).

Transparency: The Radar Logic pricing methodology, data filters and MSA compositions are fully disclosed on our website: www.radarlogic.com

Frequency: Every business day, Radar Logic publishes 1-day, 7-day and 28-day prices. Frequent publication provides investors with highly relevant tools for tracking housing market values. These values are surrogates for the real cost of housing itself, enabling the opportunity for investment in residential property markets in ways similar to other commodity markets, like oil and gold.

Granular: MSAs can be segmented by location (zip code and county), property type (single family, multi-family and condo), property size, date range, and sale price. The ability to look at specific markets within an MSA allows industry participants to better understand and manage investments.

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RPX for the Institutional InvestorInstitutional investors can use RPX to invest directly in the value of housing markets. End users across the financial community – pension funds, asset managers and hedge funds – are able to benefit from the utility provided by RPX in ways that have never before been available for housing in the capital markets.

RPX Trading: The use of financial instruments like property derivatives gives the investment community access to a powerful set of options to efficiently measure and manage opportunity and risk. Investors can include real estate as a meaningful component of an overall investment strategy. RPX enables financial professionals to:

• Take strategic positions on the future direction of housing markets• Diversify or balance a portfolio• Directly hedge risk of current residential real estate investments• Participate in price fluctuations in both rising and falling markets• Manage investments in markets correlated to housing prices

Analytics Our analytics packages allow investors to obtain timely information on current housing price trends as well as historical data to analyze movements over time. The database is derived from neutral, public source records. Analytics packages provide relevant toolsets for investment strategies and decision-making in the RPX property derivatives market.

ResearchRadar Logic research reports provide insight and commentary on U.S. housing markets. Topics include the array of economic conditions affecting housing prices as well as specific data within local property markets. These analyses help capital market participants define housing price movements in both current and historical contexts.

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RPX for the Real Estate ProfessionalReal estate industry participants can use RPX to manage and efficiently participate in price movements within U.S. housing markets.

RPX Trading: Trading property derivative contracts based on RPX provides a way to take advantage of price trends in the residential real estate market without having to actually buy or sell ‘bricks and mortar’. RPX enables real estate professionals to:

• Invest in real estate without the high transaction and opportunity costs associated with property ownership• Enter or exit housing markets ‘invisibly’ using derivative contracts• Expand or downsize geographic exposure without having to buy or sell any property• Take investment positions on rising markets with greater flexibility• Directly hedge investments • Increase leverage and achieve a lower cost of capital• “Pre-sell” a development and secure value prior to breaking ground

Analytics Our analytics database enables real estate professionals to perform specific asset analyses by examining price trends in markets where they are invested in relation to other locations or parameters over time. Analytics provide toolsets for decision-making by illustrating a property market’s recent price movements as well as its past direction.

Research Radar Logic research reports provide analysis to anyone investing in U.S. residential real estate. Its basis on neutral, public source transaction data makes it unique. Real estate professionals using housing price data can analyze the feasibility of prospective developments under various market conditions. Our data contains a level of granularity and inclusiveness that is key to effective market analysis.

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By a variety of measures, 2007 was a difficult year for the housing market. The prices tracked by Radar Logic show that the weak trend continued in November 2007. The markets that are declining are declining faster, while only three of Radar Logic’s MSAs show persistent strength. As shown in Exhibit 1, only five markets show a positive 1-year annual return, while the remaining 20 are negative. Twelve markets posted their weakest month in terms of

annual appreciation since the market began to soften in late 2005, six of which posted a double-digit decline in price per square foot. A US Census Bureau report issued for December 2007 demon-strates a similar conclusion; new home sales were off 40.7% from the previous year while the median price of new homes saw a 10.4% year-over-year decline, the largest drop in 37 years.1

Markets are also ranked based on 2-year and 5-year annualized returns in Exhibit 2. The markets with the largest 2-year annualized decreases,Sacramento, San Diego, Las Vegas, Detroit and Phoenix are the markets that have seen the largest decline since markets tracked by Radar Logic first peaked in 2005. The 5-year annualized return rank-ings show how markets are valued relative to the pe-riod before the housing boom. Even after the recent market troubles in Miami and Los Angeles, these two markets have still appreciated the most on an annual basis over the last five years, at 11.3% and 10.6% respectively. Seattle, and Washington, DC, also experienced annual returns better than 10%. In contrast, Detroit, Columbus, Denver, and Cleveland have experienced declines (or very modest gains) over the 5-year period.

Markets can possess significant local momentum. The leading markets appreciated consistently in the last half of 2007; four of the five top markets in November were among the top five for the preceding six months. Milwaukee and New York showed 1-year gains of 5.6% and 5.0% this month. Seattle’s rapid decrease in rate of appreciation (9.2% one-year appreciation in the July 2007 RPX Monthly Housing Report, 6.2% in August, 4.8% in September, and 1.2% in October) halted its slide, posting a 1.5% gain year-over-year for the month of November. Northwest MLS data show that November single-family home inventory in King County (Seattle) is up 41.4% over the previous year, and has been increasing year-over-year since April 2006.2 If supply continues to rise as it has without a corresponding uptick in demand, Seattle is poised to post a year-over-year decline in price in upcoming months. Seattle has not posted an annual loss during the historical period published by Radar Logic.

The five trailing markets based on 1-year percentage change in price per square foot are Sacramento; Las Vegas; San Diego; Tampa; and Los Angeles. No-vember 2007 was the worst month for each of these markets in the historical period for which Radar Logic publishes prices. Prices continue to weaken in these markets, and the pace of their declines is ac-celerating. Las Vegas, San Diego, and Sacramento are at price levels last seen in the second quarter of 2004. Los Angeles and Tampa are at price levels last seen in the second quarter of 2005.

1 U.S. Census Bureau News. New Residential Sales In December 2007. Washington, D.C., January 28, 2008. <http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html>2 NWMLS. Housing Activity Shows Seasonal Slowdown, Stable Prices. December 6, 2007.

Release Date: February 1, 2008

www.radarlogic.com

Rank Prior Rank MSA Code PPSF % Change

1 4 Milwaukee, WI MW $112.11 5.6%

2 2 New York, NY NY $289.79 5.0%

3 3 Seattle, WA SE $221.57 1.5%

4 6 Philadelphia. PA PH $149.36 1.5%

5 1 Charlette, NC CH $95.29 1.1%

6 10 Columbus, OH CO $93.82 -1.4%

7 7 San Jose, CA SJ $453.84 -1.5%

8 11 Washington, DC DC $224.09 -1.8%

9 5 San Francisco, CA SF $424.32 -2.2%

10 17 Chicao, IL CG $179.86 -3.8%

11 9 Cleveland, OH CL $89.95 -3.8%

12 8 Minniapolis, MN MN $149.35 -4.0%

13 12 Boston, MA BO $218.04 -5.0%

14 24 St. Louis, MO SL $105.50 -5.9%

15 13 Denver, CO DV $134.99 -6.6%

16 18 Atlanta, GA AT $94.24 -7.1%

17 14 Detroit, MI DT $100.14 -7.7%

18 22 Jacksonville, FL* JX $115.86 -8.7%

19 16 Pheonix, AZ PX $140.96 -9.5%

20 19 Miami, FL MI $182.43 -10.6%

21 15 Los Angeles, CA LA $348.12 -10.7%

22 20 Tampa, FL TA $123.66 -11.7%

23 21 San Diego, CA SD $278.25 -17.1%

24 23 Las Vegas, NV LV $150.40 -17.2%

25 25 Sacromento, CA SC $185.98 -18.6%

Exhibit 1: 25 Metro Residential Areas (1 Year % Change)

Source: 28-Day RPX™ index value for each MSA as of 11/30/2007*Due to an anomaious delay in certain reporting in the Jacksonville MSA during the period examined on year ago, its year-over-year change may be exahherated.

HOUSING MARKETREPORTNovember 2008

M O N T H L Y

For November 2007, of the 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) examined, five residential markets showed price increases and 20 markets showed price declines. Milwaukee and New York remain strong with 5.6% and 5.0% annual appreciation, respectively. Six markets (Miami, Los Angeles, Tampa, San Diego, Las Vegas, and Sacramento) show double-digit losses and are at price levels not seen since the second quarter of 2005.

The announcement of the government stimulus-package may impact housing prices; however regional differences are likely to appear. Specifically, the proposed plan (House version) would allow Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to buy mortgages above the current limit of $417,000. Based on the amount of housing stock under the proposed and current limits, mortgage data and median home prices suggest the stimulus could have the largest effect in California markets.

The New York MSA continues to appreciate. The effect is further amplified by the composition shifting to favor Manhattan. The number of included transactions in the New York MSA declined in recent months, while the number of transactions on the island of Manhattan increased slightly. This “neighborhood” shift increases the weight of the higher-priced Manhattan properties, shifting the index value higher. When considering only condos, the median price per square foot increases 32.8% over the last year.

RPX ResearchRadar Logic publishes research on the U.S. housing market with detailed analyses of the MSAs for which we currently publish Daily Prices. Our research is driven by our database, enabling us to offer information at a level of neutrality, segmentation and specificity never before available.

RPX Monthly Housing Market ReportsRadar Logic’s RPX Monthly Housing Market Reports provide timely, neutral analysis of all housing markets we track. The reports highlight and explore the forces that influence notable price movements in metropolitan areas as well as contextual regional trends. The report identifies certain common characteristics influencing housing markets, such as mortgage rates, but also evaluates local factors affecting particular MSAs. As there is no ‘national’ housing market per se, it is critical to examine influences and trends as they relate to specific geographies.

RPX Research AlertsRadar Logic offers RPX Research Alerts that identify relevant trends and events in the U.S. housing markets. Reports are released on a case-by-case basis in response to pertinent and influential indicators that may affect future trends in the MSAs tracked by RPX. Radar Logic’s evaluative tools enable rapid output of research products in order to provide clear insight for the real estate and financial communities.

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RPX AnalyticsProfessionals in the real estate and financial communities rely on information as a catalyst for investment actions. RPX Analytics delivers a relevant array of data for effective market analysis and financial strategy. Our web-based tools provide multi-faceted views of current and historical price trends for all markets and sub-markets we track. Our analytics suite provides a means for all entities associated with or affected by housing prices to maintain market data streams on a constant, neutral and daily updated basis.

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Custom SolutionsRadar Logic can tailor its capabilities to offer competitive advantages to entities seeking opportunities in specific housing markets or to enhance marketing or customer education efforts. Customized analytic packages and reports are available on a case-by-case and subscription basis for effective support of client business and investment strategies.

Custom AnalyticsSpecific analytic toolsets can be designed to analyze the multitude of data combinations necessary for astute management of investment in residential property values. These data tools provide valuable insight in response to an extensive number of potential query criteria.

Custom ResearchOur research team can respond to dynamic queries with timely information about housing market movements, trends and opportunities. The centrality of housing values to the overall economy and virtually all other invest-ments make it a key factor in any market or investment analysis. Our capabilities allow us to customize our reports to the exacting and specialized requirements of clients.

To learn more about Radar Logic’s Custom Solutions, please contact [email protected] or call (212) 965-0300.

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Radar Logic IncorporatedRadar Logic Incorporated, a real estate data and analytics company, calculates and publishes the Radar Logic Daily™ Prices.

The prices track housing values for major U.S. metropolitan areas and are the basis of the Residential Property Index™ (RPX™), a market that enables real estate to be traded as a liquid asset, via property derivatives offered by major financial institutions.

RPX allows real estate and financial professionals to manage opportunity and risk, invest in real estate values without owning physical assets and effectively analyze markets using a consistent metric: price per square foot.

For more information on Radar Logic and the RPX, including licensed dealers, please contact us at:

Radar Logic Incorporated 180 Varick Street, Suite 502

New York, New York 10014

(212) 965.0300

[email protected]