I. Identification:1. It is a type of forecast that uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis for a forecast.2. These Techniques work best when a series tends to vary about an average.3. Technique that averages a number of the most recent actual values in generating a forecast.4. A weighted averaging method that is based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error.5. It is used when a time series exhibits a linear trend.II. PROBLEM SOLVING: The manager of a call center recorded the volume of calls received between 10 and 12 a.m. for 21 days and wants to obtain a seasonal index for each day for that hour. Compute for the following: season average, overall average and, seasonal index.DAY

WEEK 1 WEEK 2WEEK 3SEASON AVERAGE OVERALL AVERAGESEASONAL INDEX

Monday505560

Tuesday606570

Wednesday657075

Thursday556065

Friday455055

Saturday707580

Sunday758085

Answer:1. Nave forecast2. Time-Series Forecasting - Averaging3. Moving Average4. Exponential Smoothing5. Adjusted Exponential SmoothingSolution:DAY

WEEK 1 WEEK 2WEEK 3SEASON AVERAGE OVERALL AVERAGESEASONAL INDEX(SEASONAL AVERAGE / OVERALL AVERAGE)

Monday505560(50+55+60)/3=55650.85

Tuesday606570(60+65+70)/3=65651

Wednesday657075(65+70+75)/3=70651.08

Thursday556065(55+60+65)/3=60650.92

Friday455055(45+50+55)/3=50650.78

Saturday707580(70+75+80)/3=75651.15

Sunday758085(75+80+85)/3=80651.23

OVERALL AVERAGE(55+65+70+60+50 +75+80)/7= 65