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PV Thin Film Industry Analysis
EuPD Shared ServiceBonn, May 2008
2
A. Background and Approach
B. Industry Analysis 1. Products2. Players3. Purchasers
C. Results: Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
D. At a Glance: EuPD PV Thin Film Industry Analysis
Contact Information
Agenda
3
A. Background and Approach
4
BackgroundA.1.
Many established PV players are investing heavily in thin film technologies (e.g. Q-Cells, Sharp, SCHOTT),and many new market participants are ramping up production facilities (e.g. Avancis, Malibu, Signet). According to estimates from EuPD Research, global thin film production will grow faster than the global PV markets:
CAGR thin film capacity 2007-2010: 83% CAGR crystalline capacity 2007-2010: 32%CAGR global PV demand 2007-2010: 41%
Hence, the vital questions are: how realistic are the ambitious expansion plans of the PV thin film industry? Will the thin film modules be able to compete with the crystalline competition in relevant existing market segments? Which opportunities exist to open up new markets? Will the global demand for photovoltaic modules keep pace with the production output boom?
Over the year 2008, a sequence of successive market entries can be expected. However, it can be expected that not all the ramp-up announcements will be realized. At this stage of this evolving industry, first assessments on the potential of the various thin film market entrants are possible.
The departure of the thin film technologies from their niche position is a very important development for the global PV industry as well. For actors in this booming market, profound analysis and research backed prognosis are crucial: after all, the wheat must still be separated from the chaff. The main trends are analyzed in this study.
Industry Issues
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BackgroundA.1.
The EuPD Research Industry Analysis PV Thin Film is a systematic analysis of the industrystructure and the competitive intensity within the PV thin film industry.
The main questions regarding products, production and purchasers are:
1. In which market segments are PV thin film modules substitute products to crystalline modules?
2. What is the role of the supplier industry for the advancement of the industry?3. Which roll do spill-over effects from neighboring industries play?4. Which are the important thin film producers and what is the potential of the various market
entrants?5. Which are the most promising country markets for PV thin film products?6. Which are the main future trends regarding supply and demand of PV thin film modules?7. How high is the competitive intensity of the industry?8. Which are promising differentiation strategies?9. Will the global demand for photovoltaic modules keep pace with the expected production
output boom?
Analytic Questions
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As the analysis is based on both, secondary and primary data, the survey results are labeled with this EuPD icon.
ActionContacting of 92 PV thin film companies.Realization of interviews with ten thin film producers (100 percent of all producers) and 16 market entrants (approximately 20 percent of all entrants).Field time: January and February 2008.
ApproachQuestionnaire with 30 questions.Detailed questions on company development and industry structure.Operationalization of Porter’s Five Industry Forces Analysis through methodological items.
ResultsExclusive quantitative data on the assessment of the industry drivers in the PV thin film segment.Quantification of the intensity of rivalry among existing players, the threat of new entrants and substitute products, as well as of the bargaining power of suppliers and customers.
BackgroundA.1.
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Research Approach: Survey ParticipantsA.1.
2010 (or later)
2009
2008
2007
2006 (or earlier)
Year of market entry (expected)
Current development status
Source: EuPD Research 2008
Kaneka First Solar
Uni-Solar
Würth
Malibu
Signet
Genesis
SANYOMitsubishi Heavy
ersol
PV Flex
Scheuten
Avancis
Solar Plus
Honda
Lambda CSG
SCHOTTFree Energy
CIS Solartechnik
SHARP
Sontor
NexPower
Kenmos
Johanna
Calyxo
R&D Plant construction/Ramp-Up
Pilot Production Production >5MW Production >25MW
a-Si/TandemCdTeCIS/CIGS
Producers
a-Si/TandemCdTeCIS/CIGS
Entrants
26 companies participated in the quantitative survey:
Avancis (GER)Calyxo (GER)CIS Solar (GER)CSG Solar (GER)ersol (GER)First Solar (US)Free Energy (FR)Genesis (HU/ESP)Honda (JP)Johanna (GER)Kaneka (JP)Kenmos (TW)Lambda (MEX)Malibu (GER)Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (JP)NexPower (TW)PV Flex (GER)SANYO (JP) )Scheuten (NL)SCHOTT (GER)SHARP (JP) Signet Solar (US)Solar Plus (PT)Sontor (GER)Uni-Solar (US)Würth (GER)
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B. Industry Analysis
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Background: PV Technology Waves
This schematic illustration shows the three PV technology groups: crystal-line, thin film and organic PV.
While the crystalline modules can be expected to rather stagnate in the future, the new technologies will contribute to the growing product dif-ferentiation in the PV industry.
Cash cows
time
Quelle: EuPDResearch 2008
2007 2010 2015
0 %
100 %
Degreeof marketdiffusion
Cash cows
Time2007 2010 2015
0 %
100 %
R&
D
crystallinec-Si, mc-Sicrystallinec-Si, mc-Si
thin filma-μc-Si,CISCdTe
thin filma-μc-Si,CIS, CdTe
crystallinec-Si, mc-Sicrystallinec-Si, mc-Si
thin filma-μc-Si,CISCdTe
thin filma-μc-Si,CIS, CdTe
crystallinec-Si, mc-Sicrystallinec-Si, mc-Sithin film
a-μc-Si,CISCdTethin film
a-μc-Si,CIS, CdTe
organicnanocrystalline
organicnanocrystalline
organicnanocrystalline
organicnanocrystalline
organicnanocrystalline
organicnanocrystalline
Degree of market diffusionm
ass
pro
du
ctio
nSource: EuPD Research 2008
B.1.
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Products: Further AnalysisB.1.
Research Topics Evaluation of the degree of product differentiation between the different PV thin film products. Definition of the substitutability between crystalline and thin film modules.Learning curve for production costs of thin film technologies. Definition of the threat of substitute products.
Differentiation: operational behavior
Production costs Price elasticity
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In 2010, around fifty percent of the PV thin film modules can be expected come from Asia.
Europe, especially Eastern Germany, has the potential to develop further as one of the most important production sites as well as technology clusters.
U.S. American companies are expected to continue to play an important role as technology leaders (First Solar, Uni-Solar and Nanosolar).
Global PV Thin Film Production 2007 and 2010B.2.
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Producers: Further AnalysesB.2.
Research Topics Industry structure on the supply side of the PV thin film production.Analysis of the PV thin film producers and market entrants regarding strategy, industry concentration and regional spreading. Multidimensional company rating.Definition of the rivalry among existing producers.Assessment of the threat of new entrants.
Positioning of companieson the EuPD strategy matrix
Company potential ratingThe three turnkey providers
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BCG Matrix of Country MarketsB.3.
A comparison of the world’s Top Eleven markets was calculated by applying the conventional BCG Matrix to the global PV markets. The relative market share is calculated in relation to the German leading market.
The general trend is a movement from the “Question Mark”field to the “Stars”segment.
However, Germany and Spain are expected to lower to the Cash Cow level, whereas Japan and the US are expected to accelerate their market growth.
Germany
Germany
Italy
Spain
Spain
France
France
Greece
China
China India
India
Japan
Japan
South Korea
South Korea
USA
USAItaly
Greece
Portugal
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
0.1 1.0 10.0
Diameter: Market volume (newly installed MW)x-coordinate: relative market share (logarithmic)y-coordinate: CAGR 2004-2007 resp. 2007-2010e
Question Marks
Cash Cows
Stars
Poor Dogs
Portugal
2010e2007
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Purchasers: Further AnalysesB.3.
Research Topics Prognosis on the future development of the most relevant global PV markets.Evidence on respective the market segmentation. Assessments on the PV thin film potential per market. Multidimensional rating of the top 15 country / state markets. Assessment of the bargaining power of the customers.
Market segmentation per technology
Detailed market information
Analysis and ranking of 17 country markets
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C. Results: Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
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Results: Porters Five Forces Industry Analysis
The analytic tool developed by Michael E. Porter divides the driving factors of an industry into five forces:
existing manufacturers,market entrants, substitute products, suppliers and customers.
Each competitive force is being analyzed. Taken together, the assessment gives a holistic picture of the current market situation. Customers
Bargaining power of customers
Competitive intensityof PV thin film industry
Substitutes
Threat of substitute productsSuppliers
Bargaining power of suppliers
Competitors
Rivalry among producers
New entrants
Threat of new entrants
C.
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Results: Competitive IntensityC.
Research Topics Assessment of the competitive intensity of the PV thin film industry by applying a Porter’s Five Forces Analysis. Evaluation of the estimations on global production output with regard to the development of demand. Development of scenarios on the further market development. Identification of connecting points for strategy formulation.
Development of global PV production and demand
Connecting points for strategy formulation
Porter’s Industry Analysis 2008 and 2010
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D. At a Glance: EuPD PV Thin Film Industry Analysis
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The EuPD Research PV Thin Film Industry Analysis delivers…
Assessments on the international PV thin film markets with a long-standing research background in the photovoltaic industry.Reliable evidence on the basis of a quantitative survey with all important companies.Systematic analyses of the competitive intensity of the industry.Special focus on the developments on the demand side.Connection points for strategy formulation and implementation.
Study Highlights
Profound information on the industry players, the sales markets and the supplying companies.Capability rating of the established companies and new entrants.Country market potential rating. Quantification of Porter’s Five Forces.
Unique Selling PropositionD.1.
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A. Preliminary Notes1. Background2. Research Approach
B. Products1. Thin Film vs. Crystalline: Product Differentiation 2. Thin Film vs. Crystalline: Price Differentiation
C. Production1. Supply Side1.1 Production Processes and Spillover Effects1.2 Supply Companies and Industry Concentration1.3 Outlook on Security of Supply2. Producers2.1 Production Clusters 2007 – 20102.2 Market Shares and Degree of Concentration 2007 – 20102.3 Brand Awareness of Producers and Entrants2.4 Strategic Groups of Producers and Entrants2.5 EuPD Company Capability Rating3. PV Thin Film Production Output 2007 - 2010
Agenda: Industry Analysis PV Thin Film
D. Purchasers1. Market Segmentation1.1 Customer Group Segmentation1.2 Geographic Segmentation2. Country Market Potential Analysis2.1 Overview and Potential Rating2.2 Country Markets in Europe, USA and Asia3. Global Demand for PV 2007-2010
E. Porter Analysis1. Competitive Intensity2. Strategic Options
Appendix: Country Profile Sheets
Editorial
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D. Contact Information
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Editorial
EuPD ResearchAdenauerallee 13453113 BonnTelephone +49 (0) 228-971 43-0Fax +49 (0) 228-971 [email protected]
ContactMarkus WackerbeckHead Energy and [email protected]
Stephan FranzProject [email protected]
EuPD Research® is a brand of HOEHNER RESEARCH & CONSULTING GROUP GmbH.
Member of ESOMAR World Research
