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Putting the workshop and importance of data in context
Eoin Magennis InterTradeIreland
Introductory remarks…
• Why the All-Island Freight Forum?
• Economic, organisational and regulatory contexts
• The past is a different country…
Sales slow to make a comeback with the second half of 2010 proving hazardous…
Lag in any employment upturn…Weighted data
Pe
rce
nta
ge
po
int
diff
ere
nce
-37
-42
-51
-38
-54
-49
-39
-53
7
5
7
7
2
3
3
2
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20
Don’t know
0%
0%
1%
0%
Weighted data
Base: unweighted /weighted
%
Higher levels of small firms more severely impacted by the downturn…
Positive impactModerate adverse impact
Severe adverse impact
No impact
OverallBase: 1029 / 1029
50 or more employeesBase: 110 / 28
11 to 49 employeesBase: 229 / 96
10 or fewer employeesBase: 690 / 905
Weighted data
Base: unweighted /weighted
%
Which of the following best describes the current position of your business?
OverallBase: 1029 / 1029
50 or moreBase: 110 / 28
11 to 49Base: 229/96
Growing/ expansion
StabilisingReducing/ contraction
Survival atAll costs
Winding down
10 or lessBase: 690 / 905
Don’t know
1%
0%
1%
1%-8
-3
-3
-7
-37
-21
-11
-35
-3
0
-2
41
55
59
43
11
21
27
12
-100 -50 0 50 100
-56
-72
-73
-63
-92
-58
-67
-69
24
12
12
20
5
27
13
16
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Decreased Net differenceIncreased
-53%
-54%
-31%
-87%
-43%
-61%
-60%
-32%
Base: unweighted /weighted
%
The same picture varies greatly by sectors…
OverallBase: 1029/ 1029
AgricultureBase: 55 / 57
ConstructionBase: 110 / 107
Leisure, hotels, cateringBase: 161 / 165
ManufacturingBase: 89 / 77
Business servicesBase: 221 / 230
Retail, distributionBase: 272 / 278
Other servicesBase: 121 / 114
Weighted data
Base: unweighted /weighted
%
Which of the following best describes the current position of your business?
OverallBase: 1029 / 1029
AgricultureBase: 55 / 57
ConstructionBase: 110 / 107
Leisure, hotels, cateringBase: 161 / 165
ManufacturingBase: 89 / 77
Business servicesBase: 221 / 230
Retail, distributionBase: 272 / 278
Other servicesBase: 121 / 114
Growing/ expansion
StabilisingReducing/ contraction
Survival atAll costs
Winding down Don’t know
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
4%
0%
0%
-10
-8
-6
-2
-12
-9
-4
-7
-22
-36
-41
-37
-34
-35
-29
-35
-1
-1
-1
-1
-14
-1
-3
-2
51
41
43
42
34
42
56
43
15
13
8
18
5
13
8
12
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Recovery in external trade in 2010 after several years of decline…
Falling levels of cross-border trade after a decade of growth…
Rise in the share of cross-border trade for construction-related goods and products to 2007…
…and a different story in the years since to 2009…
Challenges to business…
% stating a ‘huge issue’ for their business
2010 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Base 1,009 1,029 1,132 1,029
Cashflow and access to credit 28% 27% 27% 24%
A reduction in demand for good and services 28% 28% 27% 26%
Keeping up with innovation in the industry 12% 10% 10% 10%
Lack of appropriate skills in the workforce 4% 3% 3% 3%
Difficulty in recruiting appropriate skills in the workforce 5% 6% 6% 4%
Rising energy/fuel costs 27% 27% 33% 41%
Rising costs from other overheads 26% 29% 33% 41%
Business and consumer confidence 22% 29% 24% 23%
New competitors in your market 12% 12% 11% 13%
Discounting by competitors 12% 22% 19% 24%
Current exchange rate between sterling and the euro 12% 9% 8% 9%
Late payments from customers 27% 25% 25% 22%
Other challenges for the freight industry…
• Restructuring of the industry
• Costs and pricing
• Regulatory environment – including carbon emissions
• Congestion issues
• Connectivity off the island