PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER ... PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER DYNAMIC MODELLING OF RIVER RESTORATION MEASURES

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Text of PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER ... PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER DYNAMIC MODELLING OF RIVER RESTORATION...

  • PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER

    DYNAMIC MODELLING OF RIVER RESTORATION

    MEASURES

    Samantha Jane Hughes1-2, Mario Santos1, Rui Cortes2, João Cabral1,

    Chris Gardner3, Bella Davies3

    1.Applied Ecology Laboratory, Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, Portugal.

    2. Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, Portugal.

    3. South East Rivers Trust, Denmark Road, Carshalton, Surrey SM5 2JG, United Kingdom

  • In a nutshell…

    • Altered systems • Different impacts across different scales

    • River restoration • Different measures across different scales

    • Links across different networks

    • The role of dynamic predictive modelling • Stochastic Dynamic Methodology

    • Concept – method - application

    • A conceptual model for river restoration • Case study challenge

  • Altered river systems • Impacts of human activity

    • Across spatial and temporal scales

    • Complex interactions in dynamic systems

    • Losses • Ecosystem processes, structure and function

    • System resilience • Stochastic events: flood, wildfire, storm events,

    human disasters

    • Ecosystem services

    • Components of well-being • Governance - compliance

    • WFD, Habitats, Flood

    • Socio-economic impacts

    • e.g. health

  • Uncertainty in dynamic systems

    Decomposition of variance in macroinvertebrate relative abundance data 3 spatial scales (Odelouca River, Algave, Portugal)

    Hughes, SJ, Ferreira MT Cortes RV (2008). Hierarchical spatial patterns and drivers of change in benthic macroinvertebrate communities in an intermitent Mediterranean river. Aquatic Conservation: marine and freshwater ecosystems 18: 742-760.

  • River restoration

  • Restoration objectives

  • The role of dynamic predictive modelling

    • A tool for decision support and governance

    • Able to embrace system complexity and stochasticity

    • Use existing data bases

    • Parameterisation using gradients in data

    • Assess cause-effect relationships - relevant scenarios, including stochastic events

    • Provide feedback to guide maintenance and inform future management

    • WFD context: to prevent deterioration or improve ecological status

    • Refine restoration measures

    • What issues still exist?

    • What can be done to address them?

    • What could be done next?

    • Demonstrate restoration benefits to inform future funding bids

    • Dynamic temporal outputs – graphs, tables, values

    • Visualisation – coupled with GIS

  • Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM) • A sequential modelling method

    • Comprises static and dynamic components

    • Holistic principles

    • Complex and dynamic processes that shape socio-ecological systems

    • Linear / non-linear / cumulative

    • Indicator response

    • Modular

    • Integrate different data sources / types

    • Sensitivity analysis

    • Assessment of uncertainty

    • StDM model complexity determinants

    • The problem

    • Choice of the key-components in studied ecosystem

    • Available data

    • StDM + GIS = spatial projection of results

  • Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM)

  • Assess explanatory and response variables

    Obtain correlative output to populate the dynamic model

    Data-base of explanatory and response variable values broad enough to capture a wider gradient of the pertinent scenarios

    National River Restoration inventories

    River Wiki

    Rivers Trust projects

    Funded projects

    Grey literature

    Statutory body data bases e.g. WFD

    A conceptual model for river restoration

    Restoration scenarios Stochastic events

  • A conceptual model for river restoration

    • Demonstration → Project

    • CITAB, RRC, SERT

    • Based on a small selection of restoration

    measures

    • NRRI and project data

    • LWD and deflectors

    • Assess processes conditions leading to project

    success

    • Objectives

    • Scenarios

  • Integrative Research in Environment, Agro-Chains and Technology

    Bio-Economy and Sustainability