Public Safety CP-WEB3

INTERNAL SECURITY AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

INTELLIGENCE REPORT:

Violent protests, terrorist bombings and natural disasters threaten the internal security of Southeast Asian

nations. Defence IQ examines the headline events over the last 12 months and future Government spending

to enhance public safety.

www.publicsafetyinternalsecurity.com

MAJOR NATURAL DISASTER

PHILIPPINES

MALAYSIA

ARMED INTRUSION

THAILAND

MILITARY COUP

Country Risk Assessment:

Thailand has experienced long-term political and civil unrest, resulting in violent clashes between protestors and police as well as periods of martial law. These incidents have stretched the resources of the police and military who have faced significant difficulties in maintaining public safety and internal security.

Following a military coup in 2006 that removed then Prime Minister Thaksin Chinnawat from power, large-scale street protests appeared in major cities between competing political factions. Though mostly peaceful, the demonstrations erupted in 2010 with violent confrontations between law enforcement personnel and protesters. The clashes resulted in at least 92 deaths, an estimated 2000 people injured and an estimated $1.5 billion in arson-related property losses.

Continued political discord led the ruling Government to dissolve parliament in December 2013, eventually leading to a military take over from the caretaker government on 22 May 2014 along with the enforcement of martial law. Observers are concerned that this period of martial law could lead to a repeat of the violence that occurred 2010. The temporary imposition of military rule is unlikely to solve the deep and longstanding political divide in Thailand. An added challenge is that martial law cannot remain imposed for the long-term, lest it come at the expense of the economy which would generate further discontent amongst those affected.

The future of Thailand’s political system remains highly uncertain, except that a heavy reliance upon law enforcement agencies will remain.

Insurgency in South Thailand

Thailand is also experiencing a long-term ethno-nationalist insurgency in the southern Malay-Muslim majority provinces. Since January 2004, thousands are estimated to have been killed and wounded. According to the region’s Internal Security Operations Command, there were 320 bombings in the four border provinces between January and December 2013, compared with 276 reported bombings in 2012.

The bombings continue to this day with 15 bomb blasts occurring on 24 May in Pattani and Narathiwat, resulting in 3 dead and 73 wounded. Targets of the attacks included a petrol station, five 7-Eleven convenience stores, a fish market, utility poles, a mobile phone signal tower and a navy patrol ship.

These attacks are not isolated incidents and continued violence is expected.

Government Investment:

• Hundreds of millions of baht used to curb anti-government protests. • Despite the on-going political unrest, the acting finance minister under the military council has predicted the economy to grow as much as 3 per cent in 2014. • Thailand’s Homeland Security budget is growing and will reach USD 8.7 billion by 2018.

THAILAND

Intelligence Security Assessment: HIGH RISK

Public Safety and Internal Security Issues:• Military Coup• Political Instability• Long-term Civil Unrest• Insurgency in South Thailand


MALAYSIA

Intelligence Security Assessment: STABLE

Public Safety and Internal Security Issues:• Armed Incursion in Sabah• Moderate Risk of Terrorism• Moderate Criminal Activity


Malaysia benefits from long-term political stability, economic growth and the non-occurrence of natural disasters that affect many of its neighbours. The country has enjoyed a steadily growing economy due to the development of its manufacturing, services and tourism sectors. The early years of the country’s independence struggled with communist insurgency, confrontation with Indonesia and claims from the Philippines to Sabah. However from 1969 onwards Malaysia avoided any significant terrorist incidents despite the presence of two active terrorist groups in Southeast Asia affecting other countries in the region.

One major recent event that has prompted change in Malaysia’s internal security was the 2013 intrusion of East Sabah known as the Lahad Datu standoff. In this event, 235 militants from the Philippines calling themselves the “Royal Security Forces of the Sultanate of Sulu and North Borneo” entered the area on the groundsof an unresolved historical claim to the territory.

The attack took Malaysian security forces by surprise leading to three weeks of negotiations in which the Malaysian government demanded that the militants surrender. After the three weeks, Malaysian armed forces clashed with the militants, successfully routing them and resulting in minor casualities for the Malaysian forces but with the majority of the militant force either killed or captured.

In response to the incident, Prime Minister Najib Rasak declared that, “The armed intrusion in Lahad Datu is a black mark for Malaysia...What is important is that we will not allow even an inch of our land to be taken away by anyone. Sabah will remain with Malaysia forever.”

Although the security environment has been stable in Malaysia for decades, the Lahad Datu standoff served as a reminder that Malaysia cannot be complacent with its investment into public safety and internal security provisions.


• The 2014 budget indicates that the Government will allocate RM8.8 billion to the Royal Malaysia Police and RM13.2 billion to the Malaysian Armed Forces (ATM) to reduce crime and enhance military preparedness.

• In direct reaction to the Lahad Datu standoff the Prime Minister declared that, “To safeguard our territorial waters from foreign threat, particularly in Sabah and Sarawak, the Government established the East Coast Special Security Area (ESSCOM) early this year. To further strengthen ESSCOM operations, the Government will allocate a sum of RM75 million for 2014.”

• Speaking on the spending on internal security, Prime Minister Nazib Razak revealed that, “In the fight against serious crime, the Government has allocated RM200 million to equip [The Royal Malaysia Police] with the latest tools and equipment such as firearms, ammunition, bulletproof vests, narcotic detectors, biometric systems and forensic vehicles. The Government also will provide 496 closed-circuit cameras (CCTV) in 25 local authorities involving an allocation of RM20 million.”


THE PHILIPPINES

Intelligence Security Assessment: HIGH RISK

Public Safety and Internal Security Issues:• Major Natural Disasters• Active Terrorist Groups • Guerrilla Insurgencies• Significant Criminal Activity (particularly in cities)



The Philippines is beset by numerous internal security issues that threaten public safety and political stability. Made up of approximately 7,000 islands with a population of 96.5 million, the Philippines has one of the highest birth rates in Asia, leading forecasters to predict that the population will double within three decades.

The Philippines is prone to storms, earthquakes and eruptions from around 20 active volcanoes. In 2013 alone, 24 typhoons hit the Philippines area of responsibility. Most notable was Typhoon Haiyan (aka Typhoon Yolanda) which hit the Philippines on 8th November 2013, with sustained winds of over 195 miles per hour and sea level storm surges of over 13 feet. Over 16 million people are estimated to have been affected, including at least 6,000 dead and over 27,000 injured.

The extreme devastation caused by Typhoon Haiyan caused the Philippines rethink its disaster management strategy based on lessons learned. It was found that after the typhoon struck, the communications systems in place were unable to function. An additional challenge was that after the storm had affected the landscape and blocked roads, there were up-to-date maps and no way to disseminate the maps that were available.

The lack of contingency planning as well as resilient and reliable communication and information dissemination systems were significant inhibitors to recovery efforts. The Philippines is now prioritising investment into the resources, technology and infrastructure to withstand similar disasters in the near future.

Terrorism and Insurgency

Numerous terrorist and insurgent groups are active in the Philippines, frequently causing kidnappings, bombings and the loss of life.

The communist New People’s Army (NPA) has waged a protracted guerrilla campaign across much of the country since 1969. To fund their activities, the group conducts the practice of collecting revolutionary taxes from civilians and businesses in the areas they operate. Whilst the Government has renewed efforts to negotiate a peace agreement with the NPA, incidents between both parties continue to occur.

The radical Islamist group Abu Sayyaf remains active on the islands of Jolo and Basilan. Abu Sayyaf has been attributed to Philippines’ worst terrorist attack and the world’s deadliest terrorist attack at sea, the bombing of Superferry 14, which occurred on February 27, 2004, killing 116 people. The group has previously received funding from Al-Qaeda and continues to conduct bombings, kidnappings, assassinations and extortion to this day.

On the southern island of Mindanao, a group known as the Moro rebels have been fighting for a separate Islamic state within the mainly-Catholic country. The conflict lasted 40 years and claimed more than 120,000 lives before a peace deal was reached in 2012 which granted greater Muslim autonomy in the south. Yet this has failed to bring peace to the region, as a rogue faction of the group attempted to claim control of Zamboanga City on 9th September 2013. The conflict waged for almost three weeks between the rebels and the Philippines armed forces and law enforcement agencies, in what commentators have called the Zamboanga City Crisis. The rebels were either killed or captured, with many civilians and Government forces also suffering causalities. The duration and collateral damage of the incident has provided the impetus for additional funding towards counter-terrorist capabilities to improve the handling of similar situations.

Despite Government efforts to negotiate ceasefires with terrorist and insurgent groups, the number of groups and the scale of their continued activity suggest that these incidents are unlikely to stop in the short-term.


• The Department of National Defense has allocated P123.1 billion (USD 28 million) for 2014.

• Philippine National Police has been allocated P71.9 billion (USD 16.4 million) for 2014.

• In response to the Zamboanga City Crisis, a new counter- terrorist unit is being created by The Department of National Defense. Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin declared, “we were sort of unprepared to meet that kind of threat in an urban setting, so we need a bigger unit to address this”.

Members of the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) Rescue Unit clear debris from Tyhoon HaiyanPhoto credit to Bruce Reyes-Chow

http://www.aboyandhiscamera.com/Events/Typhoon-HaiyanYolanda-Photos/

The internal security threats facing nations in Southeast Asia are broad and varied, including terrorism, insurgency and political unrest. However the one common trend that links these incidents is the increased Government spending to combat them. This is primarily linked to continuing economic growth in the region and the availability of funds to invest towards enhancing public safety. In addition to this, major events such as Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines are acting as turning points, causing Government investment to focus on ensuring that events of similar scale be handled better in the near future.

Having interviewed senior decision makers from the region’s law enforcement agencies, research by IQPC has determined that the internal security incidents listed above are not just increasing the size of available budgets but also the demand for technology and equipment. The technology areas of greatest opportunity for the Southeast Asian region have been identified as:

SOURCE:

Thailandhttps://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/th.htmlhttp://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/thailand/coup-2014.htm http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/security/411755/south-bombings-put-navy-into-crisis-modehttp://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Bt343-billion-budget-sails-through-the-House-30212764.html http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-story/asia-report/thailand/story/thailands-finance-ministry-proposes-budget-100b-new-fiscal- http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/2604674/the_thai_defense_industry_market_attractiveness

Malaysiahttps://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/my.html https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=13812http://english.astroawani.com/news/show/lahad-datu-invasion-a-painful-memory-of-2013-27579 http://www.pmo.gov.my/bajet2014/Bajet2014E.pdf

Philippineshttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-15521300 https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=15294http://preparecenter.org/topics/preparedness-issues-philippines-typhoon-haiyan-recovery#preparedness-lessons http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2013/05/06/939112/govt-drafts-new-framework-guide-peace-talks-leftist-rebels http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3732356.stm http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-15521300http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/479925/senate-body-approves-p135-b-proposed-dilg-budget-for-2014


The continued investment in these systems has a direct effect on internal security and public safety. To find out how these systems are already being adopted in Southeast Asia and to meet the senior decision in charge of these projects, click here to find out about Public Safety & Internal Security Asia 2014.

Main conference: 12 - 13 August 2014 n Workshops: 14 August 2014Venue: Grand Millennium, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

ENHANCING OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES THROUGH STRATEGY AND TECHNOLOGY

SOUTHEAST ASIA SECURITY ASSESSMENT

Systems: Software: Equipment: Platforms:

C4 GIS Non-Lethal Weapons Armoured Vehicles

Tetra Cybersecurity Ruggedised Computing Operational Vehicles

CCTV Biometrics Scanners UAVs



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Public Safety CP-WEB3