Photo courtesty of Douglas Boldt

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Changes in climate are already happening throughout the Great Lakes region including a 2.3°F increase in average temperature from 1968 to 2002. By the end of the century average temperatures are expected to increase between 3.6°F and 11.2°F. The Great Lakes region can also expect the following changes:

• While winter precipitation may increase, less average rainfall is expected with more hot summer days with temperatures above 90°F.

• More extreme weather events and intense rain storms are expected. • Lake related predictions include more fluctuation in water levels, less winter ice

cover, and significant changes to plants, insects, and overall aquatic ecology.

Climate changes now felt in the greater Erie area include recent winters with an ice-free bay and the lowest Lake Erie level in recent memory. Residents have also noticed more erratic weather with spring warm spells followed by damaging hard freezing. Extended dry spells, intense storms and flooding, and a proliferation of invasive species are also expected for the future. Below is more about what Erie might expect.

Public Health RisksGiven a poverty rate of close to 30% and an aging population, Erie residents are particularly vulnerable to projected extreme heat events and associated increases in air pollution. Warmer temperatures and an extended warm season also increase the occurence of diseases such as West Nile virus and Lyme disease. Severe weather events can also result in greater risk of physical injury.

TourismWarmer lake waters and stomwater runoff may increase e-coli contamination, algal blooms, and swimming advisories that may reduce visitation to Presque Isle beaches.

World class fishing in Lake Erie and its tributaries is likely to decline due to fewer fish, a result of warmer water temperatures, fluctuating stream flows associated with drought and intense storms, increased competition from invasive species, and the development of low oxygen ‘dead zones’. Warmer winters are also reducing the number of days for winter sports such as ice fishing, snow mobiling, and skiing.

Infrastructure Water supply and sewer services are vulnerable to both extreme drought and precipitation events. Extreme weather events (rain, snow, and ice storms) are likely to result in more frequent damage to transportation and energy distribution systems. As a result, our emergency responders will be taxed by more frequent and severe weather related emergencies. Less rain will mean lower lake levels and a reduction in the weight Great Lakes ships can carry; expensive dredging could be in store for the Port of Erie and local marinas.

AgricultureThe agriculture sector has long been sensitive to weather and climate. More droughts and more erratic and intense precipitation events are already creating hardship for local farmers.The early spring

Photo courtesy of Anna McCartney

warmth followed by hard freezes observed in 2012 had a substantial impact on local vineyards, orchards, and maple syrup producers. Over time, changing conditions may make cultivation of many crops impractical.

Environment Less winter ice on Lake Erie and protective ice dunes along the shore will expose more of Presque Isle’s beaches to bluff collapse and soil erosion. Warmer water temperatures may increase the occurrence of dead zones and toxic algal blooms, and create new opportunities for invasive species to expand their ranges northward to include the Erie area.

What Can Erie Do to Become Resilient? Successful climate adaptation planning includes severel key steps: 1) identify and assess the hazards and risks; 2) consider actions to minimize the impacts and cost; and 3) establish a process to implement those actions.

Many cities and states are now planning to ensure that government agencies, businesses, and community organizations are working together to build resilient communities. There is no one size fits all approach to adaptation planning, as each jurisdiction must decide what works best. For example, the City of Chicago developed a stand-alone adaptation plan that takes a comprehensive approach to the issue. Other jurisdictions have opted to “mainstream” adaptation

planning by integrating climate adaptation into existing plans and strategies. Examples of existing plans that can be modified in light of climate related impacts include plans for infrastructure, capital investments, land use, and disaster or emergency response.

Some local agencies have already begun to incorporate adaptation planning into their operations. An overall approach is necessary to pull these efforts together, identify and fill gaps, and ensure that Erie is out of harm’s way. Adaptation resources can help in this process, and are available to assist Erie in developing an adaptation planning process that will reduce the risks posed by climate related changes.

Visit http://www.paseagrant.org/climate-adaptation-resources-and-references/ to view adaptation resources.

References:Anderson, J.S., Hilberg, K. Kunkel. 2012. Historical Climate and Climate Trends in the Midwestern USA. In: U.S. National Climate assessment Midwest Technical Input Report. J. Winkler, J. Anderson, J. Hatfield, D. Bidwell, and D. Brown, coordinators. Available form the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center. <http://glisa.msu.edu/docs/NCA/MTIT_Historical.pdf.

Winkler, J.A., R.W. Arritt, S.C. Pryor. 2012: Climate Projections for the Midwest: Availability, Interpretation and Synthesis. In: U.S. National Climate Assessment Midwest Technical Input Report. J. Winkler, J. Andresen, J. Hatfield, D. Bidwell, and D. Brown, coordinators. Available from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessment (GLISA) Center. <http://glisa.msu.edu/docs/NCA/MTIT_Future.pdf

Gregg, R. M., K. M. Feifel, J. M. Kershner, and J. L. Hitt. 2012. The State of Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Lakes Region. EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA. Available at http://ecoadapt.org/data/library-documents/EcoAdapt_GreatLakesAdaptation.pdf

United States Global Change Research Program. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009. Available at www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts

Union of Concerned Scientists. (2008) Climate Change in Pennsylvania: Impacts and Soulutions for the Keystone State. A Climate Impacts Assessment for Pennsylvania. www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/climate-change-pa.html

National Academy of Sciences. (2010) America’s Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impact of Climate Change. Available at http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/sample-page/panel-reports/panel-on-adapting-to-the-impacts-of-climate-change/

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Photo courtesy of Anna McCartney

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Photo courtesy of Sara Grisé, Pennsylvania Sea Grant.