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PRÆSENTATION AF INSERO
ELBILER I ET NORDISK PERSPEKTIV
Søren Bernt Lindegaard – 17/11/2016
Vi udbreder bæredygtig transport og
understøtter vækst.
Vi omsætter vores indgående viden
om det globale marked for e-
mobilitet til analyser og strate-gier
for producenter og virksom-heder –
både internationalt og i Danmark.
Vi rådgiver kommuner og større
virksomheder gennem transport- og
flådeanalyser og hjælp til imple-
mentering af elbiler i flåden.
Vi er med til at drive udviklingen i
branchen gennem Nordens før-ende
erhvervsklynge, hvor mere end 30
virksomheder er repræsen-teret. Og
så udvikler vi hele tiden ny viden og
nye partnerskaber gennem vores
mange udviklings- og
demonstrationsprojekter.
Vil du være en del af et hurtigt
voksende marked? Følg strømmen
på LinkedIn/Insero E-Mobility eller
tag fat i direktør Mai Louise
Agerskov på 4177 0144.
E-mobilitet
19E-MOBILITET
3DAGSORDEN
HVEM ER INSERO SIDE 03
INSERO QUARTERLY SIDE 05
UDVIKLING I DE NORDISKE MARKEDER SIDE 09
INCITAMENTER SIDE 17
Insero Koncernen – bæredygtige løsninger på
morgendagens udfordringer
Hvor er vi?
Green Tech Center, Vejle
Unikt demonstrationscenter med testfaciliter og energipark, som huser dedikerede grønne virksomheder.
Vitus Bering Innovation Park, Horsens
Innovativ forretningspark, hvor iværksættere og studerende arbejder sammen om nye løsninger.
Sådan arbejder vi
R&D: Vi tiltrækker den nyeste viden gennem udviklingsprojekter.
Business development: Vi udvikler teknologier og forretningsmodeller –og tester og demonstrerer dem i hverdagen.
Consultancy: Vi bringer den ny viden i spil på markedet gennem ydelser og services
New businesses: Ser vi et potentiale på markedet, skaber vi vores egne nye selskaber.
Nogle kunder vi har løst opgaver for…
DE GRUNDLÆGGENDE SKRIDT FOR EN STRATEGISK TRANSPORTPLAN
8STRATEGISK ENERGIPLANLÆGNING - TRANSPORT
Kortlægning
•Kortlægning af eksisterende transport
•Forventet udvikling i befolkning, byudvikling, industriudvikling samt statsligt vej og transportnet
•Output: Baseline scenario
Løsninger
•Gennemgang af tiltagsportefølje fra andre byer
•Innovationsproces med udgangspunkt i lokale udfordringer med inddragelse af relevante interessenter
•Output: Idekatalog med mest relevante tiltag
Kvantificering
•Kvalificering af udvalgte tiltag fra idekatalog
•Udarbejdelse af 4 basis-scenarier for fremtiden
•Output: 4 Scenarier med kvantitative effekter og angivelser af timing og omkostninger ved implementering
Handlingsplan
•Kategorisering af de enkelte initiativer i relevante grupper og tidsmæssig og økonomisk prioritering
•Identifikation af interessenter relevante for realisering af tiltagene
•Output: Konkret handlingsplan for igangsættelse af første 3-års plan
Insero datterselskaber
• +30 års erfaring indenfor softwareløsninger til lufthavne • Kvalitet, fleksibilitet og fuld integration
• Enkel, prisvenlig og vedligeholdelsesfri varmeløsning• Ingen uforudsete omkostninger
• Attraktiv og prisvenlig delebilsordning• Fast og lav abonnementspris • Ambition om at fjerne 1.000 biler i Århus kommune• 26 biler pr. d.d. i hele landet – heraf 10 i Århus kommune • I Århus: 25 mere indenfor de næste par måneder + 12 ekstra i 2017 er på
plads men er ikke officielt – hertil kommer den organiske vækst • Delebilerne er både hos boligforeninger og private aktører
10DAGSORDEN
HVEM ER INSERO SIDE 03
INSERO QUARTERLY SIDE 5
UDVIKLING I DE NORDISKE MARKEDER SIDE 09
INCITAMENTER SIDE 17
11INSERO QUARTERLY
A quarterly publication visually presenting and
analysing:
• Nordisk Elbil- (EV) og plug-in hybrid- (PHEV) salg
hvert kvartal (Danmark, Norge, Sverige og
Finland).
• Overblik over udrulningen af ladeinfrastruktur I
landene.
• Status på nationale elbilincitamenter.
• Pris sammenligninger på tværs af lande og
segmenter.
• Tema-sektion om relevante E-mobility-relaterede
emner. Denne gang om Mobility-as-a-service
(MaaS).
• Abonnenter i 32 lande i hele verden, citeret I
nyhedsmedier i 45 lande
WHAT IS INSERO QUARTERLY?
CAR MODELS
CAR SALES
CAR SALES IN TOTALPercentages of cars sold across the Nordics:
2016
2015
2014
New PHEV modelsNew EV models
New EV and PHEV models each year:NUMBER OF CHARGING PLUGSTotal number of charging plugs across the Nordics:
3.410
334
616
11.411
5.550
DK NO SW FI
EV
PHEV
Number of PHEVs
and EVs sold in the
Nordics:
Most popular model:
Mitsubisihi OutlanderNissan Leaf
Q3 OUTLINE
Mitsubisihi OutlanderVolkswagen E-golf
Mitsubisihi OutlanderVolkswagen E-golf
INSERO QUARTERLY, Q3 2016
5.861
680
2.730 282
DK NO SW FI
Type 2
Schuko
CCS
Type 1
Tesla SC
CHAdeMO
Other
PHEVEVTotal sales of cars and vans
74,9%
92,8%
99,9% 96,0%
13,0%
12,1%
3,2%
FinlandNorway
Denmark Sweden
Nordics
0,8%
98,8%
4,0%
3,2%
0,3%
0,7%
1,0%
0,2%
646
212
4.851
173
391
134175
906
2.2221.996
131119
1.672
646
1.384
448
802
8.068
428 706
13DAGSORDEN
HVEM ER INSERO SIDE 03
INSERO QUARTERLY SIDE 05
UDVIKLING I DE NORDISKE MARKEDER SIDE 9
INCITAMENTER SIDE 17
14
Nordic │ The total number of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the Nordic
countries rose by a record breaking 15,771 vehicles in Q3. It is 259 more vehicles
than the previous record despite Swedish sales decreasing with 333 vehicles.
TOTAL EV & PHEV STOCK
• The total stock has increased by 15,771 electric vehicles
since Q2 2016. As a result, the total EV stock has increased
with 45% in the first 9 months of 2016.
• In Q1 and Q2 we predicted that sales would hit 80,000 this
year in the Nordic region. Our expectations are now in the
range of 60,000-75,000 vehicles sold in 2016.
• Q3 saw the introduction of new PHEVs and the Tesla Model
X, which has affected sales positively.
• The record quarter was a result of a new sales record in
Norway, continuing high sales in Sweden and a significant
sales increase in Denmark compared to Q2. Finally, Finland
delivered it’s second best quarter ever with 334 EVs sold.
COUNTRIES’ SHARE OF THE TOTAL EV & PHEV STOCK
• This quarter saw Sweden increase its share of the total
stock by 0,5%, while Norway and Denmark dropped by
0,25%. This is the third quarter in a row where the Danish
share of the stock has dropped.
• Sweden and Finland continued the positive sales trend, as
both countries had their second best quarters, while Norway
had a record selling quarter for the third time in a row.
Danish sales increased with 154% compared to Q2.
• Insero expects Sweden, Finland and possibly Denmark to
acquire market share from Norway during the coming
quarters, as EV sales seem to have stabilized in Norway.
2. SALES STATISTICS │ STOCK OF ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES
NO
FI
SE
DK
75%
17%
NO
DK
6%FI
2%
SW
18.529
40.623
74.883
108.569
834428 7.923
25.48316.1871.5969.905
9.026
7.926
1.124
3.185
2013
NO
DK
145.562
23.573
2015
2.484
2014
1.479
ytd 2016
+45%
FI
SW
52.565
100.475
2010
4.2273.351
2009
2.749 3.070
2012
3.524
2011
1.54612.8716.940
5.387
15
EV & PHEV SALES PER YEAR
• Danish EV sales increased with 154% compared to Q2, and
has returned as the third best EV country in the Nordic
region. Both Sweden and Finland have already exceeded
their 2015 sales, and Norway is expected to surpass 2015
sales by mid-October. Following the current trend, Danish
EV sales are expected to surpass 2014 sales.
• Norway delivered its best quarter ever – slightly higher than
Q2 2016. Sweden and Finland had their second best
quarters ever, while Denmark had their best quarter since
Q4 2015. Generally, Danish sales are similar to Q1 and Q2
2015, which indicates that the Danish EV market is
stabilizing after the introduction 20% registration tax.
COUNTRIES’ SHARE OF SALES YTD 2016
• In 2016 Norway accounted for 75% of the electric vehicle
sales in the Nordic Region.
• In contrast to Q2, Sweden has increased its share of sales
from 20% to 21%, whereas Finland and Denmark’s share
remain more or less unchanged.
• Norway’s percentage dropped from 76% in Q2 to 75% in
Q3, and Insero expects it to drop further over the next
quarters, with Sweden taking most of that market share.
2. SALES STATISTICS │ ANNUAL SALES OF ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES, 2009-2016 YTD
SW
75%
DKFI
2%
NO
21%
2%
NO
FI
SE
DK
Nordic │ Norway saw record sales in Q3, while Sweden and Finland had their
second best quarters. Denmark had their best quarter since Q4 2015, and has
returned as the third best EV country in the Nordic region.
4.7018.624
20.254
34.26033.686
9.2968.2644.701
2.244
4.741
434
2016
1.100
27.020
2014
45.087
1.005
47.910
2013
406
2015
645
10.909
1.474
1.659
2010
801859
2012
5232.907
629
2011
6.228
2009
489
16
Denmark │ The effects of the frontloading of sales in Q4 2015 have disappeared, as Q3 sales increased with
154% compared to Q2. B- and C-segment sales grew significantly and accounted for 92% of Q3 sales alongside
PHEVs. These three segments are expected to perform very well in Q4.
EV SALES 2016
• YTD sales have dropped with 19,8% compared to the same
period in 2015, which is a significant improvement
compared to Q2. The effects of the frontloading of sales in
Q4 2015 seem now to have disappeared, as sales have
reached a level similar to Q1 and Q2 in 2015.
• The B-, C- and PHEV-segments are driving sales, as they
accounted for 92% in Q3 and 84% of YTD sales.
• The B- and PHEV-segments are expected to perform well in
the coming quarters as the introduction of new, improved
models, presumably, will drive sales up.
SEGMENTS’ SHARE OF 2016 SALES (YTD)
• The B-segment increased its market share from 18% to
29%, as Renault Zoe sales increased to 228 vehicles in Q3,
due to new car sharing companies focusing on this model.
• The C-segment increased from 5% to 16% with massive
BMW i3 registrations, while the A-segment decreased from
7% to 3%.
• The E-segment continues to drop, from 10% to 5% in Q3.
which indicates some cannibalization between Tesla
vehicles, as the J-segment and Model X accounted for
similar sales.
• The Van segment dropped slightly again from 4% to 3%.
• The PHEVs account for 39% of 2016 YTD sales, which is a
decrease of 12% compared to Q2. However, PHEV sales is
still increasing, and the drop in market share should be seen
as a result of a significant increase in BEV sales.
2. SALES STATISTICS │ NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO DATE 2016
E-segment D-segment
B-segment
5%
39%
A-segment
3%
PHEV
C-segment0%
16%
J-segment
Van-segment
5%
29%
3%
The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below).
426
18172
123
12291
368
175
150
103
756322
236198
Mar-16
94
Feb-16Jan-16
57
apr-16Q1
54
71
Q2
57
94
1.100
Q3 2016
1.372
YTD 2015
YTD 2016
616315
sep-16
52
aug-16
88
242114
Jun-16
213
jul-16Maj-16
242
D-segment
Van-segment
B-segment
PHEV
E-segment
A-segment
C-segment
J-segment
17Norway │ Norway sets new sales record by 259 vehicles, as PHEV sales remain high despite a little sales drop.
BEV sales increased with 8% compared to Q2, as C- and J-segment sales increased considerably.
EV SALES 2016
• The Norwegian EV sales YTD 2016 are 34% higher than in
2015, which is still some way from the 77% increase in
2015. Following the trends in Q1 – Q3 2016, it seems that
EV sales has stabilized in Norway. Compared to 2015,
PHEVs account for a significantly larger proportion of total
sales.
• For the second consecutive quarter, Norway breaks the
11,000 milestone, making Q3 2016 the best selling quarter
ever.
• With the rise in sales over the quarter, Norway is on its way
to break even more records, and Insero does not expect
quarters with less than 10,000 vehicles sold going forward.
SEGMENTS’ SHARE OF 2016 SALES (YTD)
• As mentioned in Q2, J-segment sales has affected E-
segment sales, as the J-segment market share has
increased with 2%, whereas the E-segment has decreased
with 1% indicating cannibalization among Tesla Models.
• The PHEV-segment is still gaining market share, as it
increased by another 1,5%, while both the A-, B- and C-
segment decreasing with 1%.
• The van- and D-segment market shares remained
unchanged throughout the quarter.
2. SALES STATISTICS │ NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2016
The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below)
Van-segment
47%
2%
E-segment
5%D-segment
J-segment
2%
PHEV
7%
A-segment
32% C-segment
0%
4%B-segment
2.042
4.196
10.719
2.4683.383
Q2
5.736
Jun-16
33.6864.587 11.411
3.826
jul-16
5.550
3.243
Mar-16
11.974
2.470
15.787
2.998
11.152
3.140
aug-16
3.645
Q3 2016 YTD 2016
799
+34%
YTD 2015
25.181
5.065
3.240
Q1Jan-16
2.863
4.267
4.501
Apr-16 sep-16
2.22411.123
Maj-16
3.555
4.705
Feb-16
E-segment
J-segment
B-segment
PHEV
Van-segment
C-segment
D-segment
A-segment
18
Sweden│Q3 continued the strong PHEV trend in Sweden, however, the change in the Super Green Car Rebate seems
to drive sales from PHEVs to BEVs, as PHEV sales decreased with 10%. BEV sales remained at a level similar to Q2.
September was the best selling month ever indicating that both BEV and PHEV sales will grow in Q4.
EV SALES 2016
• 2016 YTD sales increased with 87% compared to 2015
YTD sales, despite Q3 sales decreasing with 9% compared
to Q2. Swedish EV sales in 2016 has already exceeded the
total EV sales in 2015.
• PHEVs accounted for 80% of sales in Q3, whereas they
accounted for 81,3% in Q2, which indicates that the
Swedish EV market, slowly, is moving towards BEVs.
• Especially the VW Passat GTE and Mitsubishi Outlander
PHEV continue to perform very well, with a small increase in
Passat sales, and a small decrease in Outlander sales.
SEGMENTS’ SHARE OF 2016 SALES (YTD)
• PHEVs continue to have a strong market share and are up
another 1%, now accounting for 77% of the market. This
happened despite a 10% decrease in PHEV sales.
• The E-segment has stopped the negative trend and
increased from 6% to 7%.
• The C-segment and B-segment continues to drop, while the
A-segment remains with a 1% share of sales.
• The J-segment has gained a 1% market share with the
introduction of the Tesla model X. In contrast to Norway,
there seems to be no cannibalization among Tesla’s
models, as both the E- and J-segment saw sales increases.
2. SALES STATISTICS │ NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2016
D-segment
B-segment
3%
9%
7%
77%
PHEV
1%
Van-segment
J-segment
C-segment
0%
1%
E-segment
1%
A-segment
The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below)
779
865
720
620
828
3.045
1.086
1.420
Apr-16
924
aug-16
1.175
May -16
3.743
jul-16Jun-16
988
1.343
Q2
1.225
628
Jan-16
1.253 2.143
262
Feb-16 Q1Mar-16
2.730
269
1.500
+87%
Q3 2016 YTD 2015
YTD 2016
9.294
289
1.021
sep-16
4.974
7.195
2.685
318
3.410
Van-segment
J-segment
PHEV
E-segment
D-segment
A-segment
C-segment
B-segment
19
Finland │ Finland had their second best quarter in Q3 and is still dominated by PHEVs accounting for 84% of total
EV sales in 2016 sales. Tesla Model X entered the Finnish EV market in September, and is expected to increase
BEV sales in Q4. Finnish YTD sales are close to Danish YTD sales, which was inconceivable just a year ago.
EV SALES 2016
• Finland has more than doubled its sales in the first three
quarters of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 with
a growth rate of 105%
• Finland saw a sales increase of 19% compared to Q2, and
came close to the record sales in Q1. Despite the significant
sales increases, there is still room for improvement, and
Insero expects Finland to at least maintain the current
growth rate.
• Finnish EV sales is still driven by PHEVs, which accounted
for more than 84% of sales in Q3.
SEGMENTS’ SHARE OF 2016 SALES (YTD)
• PHEVs continued to gain market share in Q3, as the
segment increased from 83% of sales in Q2 to 84% in Q3.
Finland has the largest share of PHEV sales within the
Nordic region.
• The E-segment remained at a 7% market share, which
emphasizes that Tesla is experiencing difficulties in
penetrating the Finnish EV market.
• The C-segment drops another 1%, now representing 7% of
2016 YTD sales.
• The J-segment has entered the market with the registration
of 14 Tesla model X in September, which is expected to
grow in Q4.
2. SALES STATISTICS │ NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2016
1%
D-segmentVan-segment
J-segment0%
PHEV
84%
E-segment
7%
B-segment
0%7%
0%
C-segmentA-segment
0%
The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below)
127
97
312
76
71
100
247
94
71
117
282
841
309
88
116
70
55
73
334
aug-16
80
mar-16 jun-16feb-16 Q1 jul-16maj-16
104
113
apr-16
390
161
88
jan-16 YTD 2015
+105%
83
sep-16
105
281
YTD 2016
Q3 2016
125
490
Q2
146 1.005
Van-segment
E-segment
PHEV
J-segment
D-segment
C-segment
B-segment
A-segment
20DAGSORDEN
HVEM ER INSERO SIDE 03
INSERO QUARTERLY SIDE 05
UDVIKLING I DE NORDISKE MARKEDER SIDE 09
INCITAMENTER SIDE 17
21
Nordic │ The Nordic countries have added no new significant incentives in Q3, however, Norway has announced
that the current tax incentives will stay in place at least until 2018. Danish politicians and the minister for taxation
are talking about a green car rebate of up to 5360€ for the first 1000 vehicles sold to private customers.
• Norway has launched no new incentives compared
to Q2. However, the Norwegian government has
decided that the current tax incentives will stay in
place until at least 2018, and announced that local
governments will decide incentives such as waivers
on access restrictions and free parking from 2017.
• In Denmark, there has been no changes to the tax
incentives structure since Q2. However, the Danish
politicians are discussing the introduction of new
financial incentives for the first 1.000 vehicles sold to
private customers. The green car rebate will consist
of a subsidy of up to 5360€ funded by the Danish
Government and car importers. From January 2017,
the registration tax reduction will be reduced to 60%.
• In Sweden, there have been added no new
incentives since Q2. The Super Green Car Rebate
remains unchanged, and Sweden is still planning to
introduce new tax reductions for low-emission cars
and adding taxes for high emission cars.
• In Finland, BEV owners pay only 2.5% in registration
tax compared to 5% in 2015, and are eligible to pay
the minimum rate (5%) of the CO2-based ownership
tax.
5. INCENTIVES | COMPARISON OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND CONVENIENCE INCENTIVES
Overview of incentives
Specific incentives
Tax incentives
Financial incentives
Convenience incentives
Denmark
Norway
Sweden
Finland
Tax incentives
Financial incentives
Convenience incentives
Denmark 80% reduction in registration tax
Tax exemption for FCEV
Tax reduction (0,13 EUR per kWh) for businesses
EV subsidies for business and municipalities.
Reserved parking spaces for EVs
Differentiated prices
Norway Registration tax exemption
VAT exemption Road tax exemption Reduced company car tax
(50%) Exemption from VAT
(25%) on leasing
Free parking spaces Toll road exemption Free public charging Higher mileage allowance No charges on ferries
Bus lane driving Reserved parking spaces Fast charging station every
50 km on all main roads by 2017
Sweden Vehicle tax exemption for 5 years*
Company tax benefits
Super Green Car Rebate. EV: Max €4,500. PHEV: Max €2,200**
None
Finland Registration tax reduction (BEV buyer pays 2,5%)
Ownership tax benefits
Cheaper parking/ Free parking
None
*all Euro 5 or 6 level emission vehicles
**a subsidy of 35% of the price difference between a low-emission vehicle and a comparable conventional vehicle
22UDSKIFTNINGSPOTENTIALE I A-SEGMENTET
e-Up!’en i A-segmentet kan ikke konkurrere med den
konventionelle udgave af Up!’en. Ved en ejerperiode på mellem
3 og 8 år. Er der ikke situationer hvor den elektriske Up! Vil
være billigere end den konventionelle. Dog er forskellen
minimal når vi kigger på 6-8 årige ejerperioder, hvor der er 1-5
øre forskel pr. km. Hvis vi kiggede udover de første 8 år vil E-
Up!’en sandsynligvis være en anelse billigere hvis man kører
30.000 Km om året, men det vil være marginalt. Som et resultat
af dette, kan der ikke identificeres et udskiftningspotentiale i A-
segmentet under de opstillede forudsætninger. Det er dog
samtidig et af de mindre segmenter i virksomhedsflåderne, og
det er derfor ikke nogen overraskelse af udskiftningspotentialet
er så småt.
Vi har her valgt at sammenligne e-Up! med en High Up!. Som
det fremgår af tabellen er en e-Up! økonomisk attraktiv allerede
fra 3 års ejerskab, såfremt man kører min. 30.000 km om året.
Hvis man ejer bilen i 5-7 år er den økonomisk attraktiv hvis man
i gennemsnit kører 25.000 km om året. Endelig er den
økonomisk attraktiv allerede fra 20.000 km om året ved 8 års
ejerskab. Den vil altså aldrig blive økonomisk mere attraktiv
end en konventionel bil i A-segmentet hvis man kører 15.000
km om året i gennemsnit. Årsagen er den noget højere
indkøbspris og den højere afskrivning der ikke kompenseres i
tilstrækkelig grad af de lavere driftsomkostninger.
11.401 7.907 19.308 Leasing
Køb
e-Up!-High-Up Køb Leasing
3 4 5 6 7 8 2 3
15.000 0,55 0,48 0,41 0,36 0,31 0,27 15.000 0,53 0,69
20.000 0,36 0,31 0,26 0,22 0,18 0,15 20.000 0,33 0,45
25.000 0,24 0,20 0,16 0,13 0,10 0,08 25.000 0,21 0,31
30.000 0,15 0,11 0,08 0,05 0,03 0,01 30.000 0,11 0,19
Andel der kan skiftes ud Andel der kan skiftes ud
3 4 5 6 7 8 2 3
15.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.000 - -
20.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.000 - -
25.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.000 - -
30.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 30.000 - -
Total antal der kan skiftes ud Total antal der kan skiftes ud
7.907 3 4 5 6 7 8 11.401 2 3
15.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.000 0 0
20.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.000 0 0
25.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.000 0 0
30.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 30.000 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0
I alt 0 i alt 0
Rød betyder at elbilen er
dyrere end den
sammenlignelige
konventionelle bil
Grøn betyder at elbilen er
billigere end den
sammenlignelige
konventionelle bil
23UDSKIFTNINGSPOTENTIALE I B-SEGMENTET
I B-segmentet findes den største forskel mellem konventionelle
biler og elbiler. En Renault Zoe er væsentlig dyrere pr. km. end
en Renault Clio. Ved 3 års eereskab er merprisen pr. km. 51-
91 ører. Selv ved 8 års ejerskab er merprisen pr. km stadig min.
40 øre pr. km. Dette er et resultat af den underliggende
forretningsmodel hvor man kontinuerligt betaler leje af batteriet
i en Zoe. Forskellen i omkostninger er så stor at der ikke er
noget økonomisk incitament til at købe en elbil i b-segmentet,
tværtimod er der et kraftigit incitament til at lade være.
Samlet set betyder det at der ikke kan identificeres ét
udskiftningspotentiale i dette segment, baseret på listepriser.
Her har vi valgt at sammenligne en Renault Zoe med en
Renault Clio. Som det fremgår af tabellen er en Renault Zoe
ikke økonomisk attraktiv hvis man kører under 30.000 km og
ejer bilen i højest 8 år. på trods af den relativt kompetitive
indkøbspris kan en Zoe ikke anbefales som køb ud fra en
streng økonomisk betragtning. Årsagen er Renaults
forretningsmodel med batterileje, der gør at
driftsomkostningerne er meget høje sammenlignet med andre
elbiler. til gengæld kan en Zoe lade hurtigere end andre elbiler
ved almindelige ladestandere, hvilket gør det muligt at køre
flere km pr. år. Dog ikke nok til at den bliver billigere.
19.909 11.440 31.349 Leasing
Køb
Zoe-Clio Køb Leasing
3 4 5 6 7 8 2 3
15.000 0,91 0,85 0,80 0,76 0,72 0,68 15.000 0,12 0,23
20.000 0,72 0,67 0,64 0,60 0,57 0,55 20.000 0,11 0,19
25.000 0,57 0,54 0,51 0,48 0,46 0,44 25.000 0,08 0,14
30.000 0,51 0,48 0,46 0,43 0,41 0,40 30.000 0,08 0,14
Andel der kan skiftes ud
3 4 5 6 7 8 2 3
15.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.000 0 0
20.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.000 0 0
25.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.000 0 0
30.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 30.000 0 0
Total antal der kan skiftes ud Total antal der kan skiftes ud
11.440 3 4 5 6 7 8 19.909 2 3
15.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.000 0 0
20.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.000 0 0
25.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.000 0 0
30.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 30.000 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0
I alt 0 i alt 0
Andel
der kan
Rød betyder at elbilen er
dyrere end den
sammenlignelige
konventionelle bil
Grøn betyder at elbilen er
billigere end den
sammenlignelige
konventionelle bil
24INSERO QUARTERLY
A quarterly publication visually presenting and
analysing:
• En aftagende vækst i Norge (stor vækst de sidste
3 år, stadig relativt få modeller)
• En stigende vækst I Finland (, mindre
gennembrud I år, dog afhænger væksten af
incitamenter)
• Yderligere vækst I Sverige (incitamenter er
stabile, der er mange PHEV modeller)
• Stor stigning I andelen af PHEVs i Danmark
(mindre vækst i rene elbiler medmindre der laves
om på nuværende afgiftssystem)
• Sammenlagt forventer vi at elbiler og Plug-in
Hybrider vil udgøre mere end 10% af salget i
Norden i 2017
INSERO FORVENTER:
TAK FOR OPMÆRKSOMHEDEN
Søren Bernt Lindegaard
+45 41 77 24 69