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1
Reinhard Haas
Vienna University of Technology
Promotion systems for
electricity from
renewable energy sources –
Lessons learned from EU
countries
2
SURVEY
1. Introduction
2. Historical developments
3. Success of strategies
6. Conclusions
5. Effects on electricity markets
4. The success story of PV
3
1 INTRODUCTION
CORE MOTIVATION:
Policy targets for an
INCREASE of RES-E!
e.g. 2020/20/20/20 targets
RES-E directive: increase share of
RES-E from 12% 1997 to 22% in 2010)
4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Ele
ctr
icity g
enera
tion [T
Wh/a
]
Large-scale hydro Small-scale hydro 'New' RES-E excl. hydro
RES-E EU-27 1997:
12%
2009:
17%
2. HISTORY
5
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Str
om
erz
eug
un
g [
TW
h/a
]
Geothermie
Photovoltaik
Biomüll
Biogas
Biomasse (fest)
Wind (Offshore)
Wind (Onshore)
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
FROM „NEW“ RENEWABLES
IN EUROPE
1997: 1 %
2009: 7 %
6
• Since about 1997 triggered by EU-
directives and EU initiatives
REMARK ON RES – DEPLOYMENT
IN THE EU-COUNTRIES
• Yet, specific country success stories very
strongly related to national policies design!
7
3. SUCCESS OF
STRATEGIES
8
SUCCESS CRITERIA
FOR STRATEGIES
MW /Number of plants
(=effectiveness)
Co
sts
(E
UR
/ kW
)
(=e
ffic
ien
cy)
Major objectives:
• increase the
amount of
electricity from
renewables and
• reduce costs!
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Va
lue
of
ce
rtif
ica
te (
c/k
Wh
)
Sweden UK Belgium (average) Italy Poland Romania
PRICES OF
CERTIFICATES
Italy, UK; Belgium: Continuous high level!
Sweden: Shortage in banked certificates!
11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ce
nt/
kW
h
AT DE ES
LEVEL OF
FEED-IN TARIFFS
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Valu
e o
f cert
ific
ate
(c/k
Wh
)
Sw eden UK Belgium (average) Italy Poland Romania
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ce
nt/
kW
h
AT DE ES
SUPPORT LEVELS:
COMPARISON TRADABLE
CERTIFICATES FEED-IN TARIFFS
13
EFFECTIVENESS VS COSTS
14
METHOD OF APPROACH:
STATIC COST RESOURCE CURVES
cheapest capacities
more expensive
capacities
kWh
EUR/
kWh Predicted
Uncertainty
e.g small Hydro
e. g. Wind
e.g. biomass cofiring
15
EURO/
kWh
kWh
PFix
QOut
Costs
?
HOW FEED-IN
TARIFFS WORK
16
Total costs for customersTotal costs for customers
EURO/
kWh
kWh
Market
price
PF
IT_A
Target
Producer surplus
Cost curve
(PREMIUM) FEED-IN TARIFFS
PF
IT_B
PF
IT_C
C
A
B
Total costs =
Additional
generation
costs
+
17
EURO/
kWh
kWh
PZert
Costs
?
QUOTA
HOW QUOTA-BASED
TRADABLE G O -
CERTIFICATES WORK
18
EURO/
kWh
kWh
Market
price
Target
Producer surplus
Cost curve
TRADABLE G O CERTIFICATES
PC
ER
T
C
A
B
Additional
generation
costs
Total costs for customersTotal costs for customers
Total costs =
+
19
EURO/
kWh
kWh
Market
price
Quota/ Target
Extra generation costs
risk premium!!!
Total
costs
Minimal
Monetary
generation
costs
TRADABLE GREEN
CERTIFICATES
Producer surplus
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Additional (up to 2020) realisable
potential for RES-E [TWh]
Ge
nera
tio
n C
ost
[€/M
Wh
ele]
Cost-resource curve (RES-E in the EU27)
Power price
Required
RES-E
deployment
Marginal cost for RES-E
Producer Surplus
THE SHAPE OF THE
COST CURVE E U - 27
Required
RES-E
deployment
Electricity market price
Additional
generation
costs
Producer surplus
Total
costs
21
THE CASE OF SWEDEN
22
CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS (1)(1)
• To ensure significant RES-E deployment in the
long-term, it is essential to promote a broad
portfolio of different technologies
• A well-designed FIT provides RES-E-deployment
fastest and at lowest costs;
• Strategies with lower (financial) risk -> less profit
requirements -> lower costs for society.
IMPROVE/OPTIMIZE THE
CURRENT SYSTEMS
BEFORE HARMONISING
OR IMPLEMENTING
MAJOR CHANGES! • A European- wide trading system would lead to a
much higher burden for European citizens than a
comparable FIT for meeting the 2020/20%RES target!
23
4. THE SUCCESS STORY OF
PHOTOVOLTAIC DEPLOYMENT
(IN GERMANY)
24
PV increases in recent years in PV increases in recent years in
EuropeEurope
Spain Czech
Republic
Germany
Italy
25
Source: EPIA (2012) Source: EPIA (2012)
Total installed capacity 2011: 27.7 GW Total installed capacity 2011: 27.7 GW
(compared to 16.6 GW in 2010)(compared to 16.6 GW in 2010)
26
FIT Germany
Costs
Costs of and FIT for PV
27
PV: cumulative development PV: cumulative development
in Central Europein Central Europe
In Germany in 2011/2012: PV contributes
at peak production times to
about 25% of load!
28
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Insta
llie
rte L
eis
tun
g (
MW
)
Thermisch Atomkraft Wassser Wind PV
SINCE 2000: INVESTMENTS
MAINLY IN RENEWABLES!
PV
WIND
2020: ca.
25000
MW
PV
29
5. EFFECTS OF PROMOTING
RES-E ON ELECTRICITY MARKETS
30
LONG-TERM MARGINAL
COSTS C
osts
(E
UR
/MW
h)
Capital costs Operation/Fuel costs CO2 costs
Nat. Gas Nuclear
Wind
Cheapest: 1. 2. 3.
31
SHORT-TERM MARGINAL
COSTS C
osts
(E
UR
/MW
h)
Operation/Fuel costs CO2 costs
Nat. gas
Nuclear
Wind
Cheapest: 3. 2. 1.
32
Long-term vs short-
term marginal costs
35
Co
sts
,Price
(E
UR
/MW
h)
MW
Supply
curve
Demand Dt
ON-PEAK NICE SUMMER DAY:
PRICE = SHORT-TERM
MARGINAL COSTS
Price = „System“-marginal costs
Hydro
e.g. Coal old
Nuclear pt2
PV Wind
e.g. Natural
gas new
What happens, if PV capacity will double?
36
IMPACT OF PV ON THE
ELECTRICITY MARKET
PRICE IN GERMANY
Spot market price electricity Germany
Photovoltaics On-peak time: Low
electricity prices!
37
Supply and DemandSupply and Demand
Demand
RES Production
> Demand
Electricity price = 0
(or negative)
RES Production
< Demand Electricity price
= high !
38
„Upper“
and „lower“
corridor!
PV costs PV costs vsvs household household
electricity price in Germanyelectricity price in Germany
Grid
parity ?
39
Profits of companies
Electricity prices of households
Fuel costs
Capital costs
Operation&
Labour costs
Share on household
electricity prices
1983 2006
[c/k
Wh
]
40
Capital costs
increase
Fuel costs
decrease
Structure household
electricity prices
41
Regulated share
Electricity prices of households
Share on household
electricity prices
1983 2006 2030
[c/k
Wh
]
Non-regulated share
42
(i) well-designed (dynamic) Feed-in tariff
certain deployment of PV fastest and at lowest
costs for society correct dynamic design!
(ii) “Overheating” destroyed other markets
(Czech Republic, Spain, Italy(?) );
(iii) Looming “grid-parity” for PV? change to
investment subsidies?
(v) New market design will emerge
6. Conclusions
(vi) New pricing mechanisms for end users
(vii) Regulated share on electricity prices will
increase
43
Download reports from:
www . eeg . tuwien . ac . at
E-Mail to:
Reinhard.Haas @ tuwien. ac.at
INTERESTED IN
FURTHER INFORMATION?
44
THE CASE OF SWEDEN
Major characteristics:
* since 2002: quota-based system of
Tradable Certificates
* also „old“ capacity allowed to fulfill
quota
* additional investment subs. for wind!
45
[GWh/year]
[ce
nt/
kW
h]
Biomass
Wind
Loc. A Wind Loc. B
Quota
SWEDEN: IMPACT OF
INVESTMENT SUBSIDIES
Pcert_th
Costs
(Supply curve)
Invest. Subsidies
for wind
Pcert_act
46
PRICES OF CERTIFICATES
IN SWEDEN
47
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Costs of PV in next years
(EUR/kWp)
Over capacities
Increased competition
due to modules from China
Market
clearing