PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Change: Use of Climate Science in Decision-making Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Professor of Atmospheric

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Climate Change: Use of Climate Science in Decision-making

Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCMProfessor of Atmospheric Science

Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

Professor of Agricultural Meteorology

Department of Agronomy

Faculty Director, University Honors Program

Iowa State University

Ames, Iowa 50011

[email protected] Conference

Iowa State Extension ServiceAmes

10 October 2007

Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC


Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Radiative forcing Simulations of global climate and future climate

change Four components for addressing climate change Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest: adaptation

strategy Climate information and forecasts for use in

extension

Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course or the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

Natural cycles

Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years

IPCC Third Assessment Report


2007

380 ppm

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature


2050

550 ppm



“Business as Usual”

950 ppm



“Business as Usual”

950 ppm

?


QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis


PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Mt. Pinatubo (1991)

El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963

At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3







Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

http://www.acia.uaf.edu/

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level

Kennedy SpaceCenter

Miami

Impact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areas

Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

Projected sea-level rise In 21st century:0.5 to 1.0 m

http://www.acia.uaf.edu/





PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSHansen, Scientific American, March 2004

ClimateCold Warm

Ice Volume

0

AntarcticaGreenland



An exhibition of old and new photographs at the Swiss Alpine Museum in Bern documents the gradual disappearance of Switzerland's glaciers.The Rhone glacier with the Hotel Belvedere in the foreground and the Furka pass, Canton Valais circa 1906 and 2003(Pictures: Gesellschaft fur okologische Forschung, Munich)



http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif



Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.




Natural cycles




Not Natural




Not Natural

Highly Likely Not Natural

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers


Reduced ConsumptionEnergy intensive

Energy conserving


The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

Energy intensive

Energy conservingReduced Consumption


Reduced ConsumptionEnergy intensive

Energy conserving

AdaptationNecessary

MitigationPossible


IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers


Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate Change

Mitigation policies: 2050-2100– Example: reduction in GHG emissions

Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050– Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive

economic advantage Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015

– Example: redefining climate “normals” when needed and scientifically justified

Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”: 2007-2100– Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods,

combination of both; drought and wildfire

EST personal view


If a meteorological variable began departing from its long-term background near or after 1970 it may be related to the radiation imbalance and thereby has a better chance than not of continuing its new trend over the next 5-10 years.

Climate Adaptation(Short-Term)

EST personal view


Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) Longer frost-free period (high) Higher average winter temperatures (high) Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) More (~10%) precipitation (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high)

– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)– Longer periods without rain (medium)

Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)

Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive


Reasons Crop Yields Might Increase in the Midwest

Longer growing season Warmer spring soil temperatures Modest or no increase in summer daily

maximum temperatures Increase in nighttime temperatures Reduced risk of late frost in spring or early

frost in fall More freeze-thaw cycles that will

recharge soil moisture in winter


Reasons Crop Yields Might Increase in the Midwest

More precipitation More soil moisture Higher dew-point temperatures reduces

moisture stress Higher CO2 increased carbon

uptake by crops Higher CO2 increases the

water-use efficiency of crops


Reasons Crop Yields Might Decrease in the Midwest

More precipitation extremes– More rain events bring heavy rain– More droughts– More floods

More over-wintering pests More pathogens due to higher humidity More vigorous weed growth

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet







North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric

Research, USA Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA

Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric ResearchPrincipal Investigator

http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

NOAA’s currently funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments teams

Proposed new Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)

Tin and Seager


Midwest Consortium for Climate Change (MiCCA)

Mission

To translate NOAA seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts into decision-

making tools for agriculture and to disseminate these products through

the state extension services


Summary

Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent with natural variations over the last 400,000 years

Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed over half of the warming of the last 35 years

Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have little effect on global warming until the latter half of the 21st century

Adaptation strategies should be developed for the next 50 years

Recent trends and model projections should be used to develop adaptation strategies for the next 10 years

EST personal view


For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see

my online Global Change course:http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

Contact me directly:[email protected]

Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory

http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website:http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/

Or just Google Eugene Takle

Documents

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Change: Use of Climate Science in Decision-making Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Professor of Atmospheric