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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Four components for addressing climate change Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest: adaptation strategy Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course or the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Climate Change: Global Causes and Midwest Consequences
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCMProfessor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric SciencesProfessor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of AgronomyFaculty Director, University Honors Program
Iowa State UniversityAmes, Iowa 50011
[email protected] Annual Environmental Conference and Expo
Iowa-Illinois Safety Council27 September 2007
Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Four components for addressing climate
change Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest:
adaptation strategy
Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course or the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Natural cycles
Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
IPCC Third Assessment Report
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
2007
380 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
2050
550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
?
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
Highly Likely Not Natural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Reduced ConsumptionEnergy intensive
Energy conserving
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Energy intensive
Energy conservingReduced Consumption
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Reduced ConsumptionEnergy intensive
Energy conserving
AdaptationNecessary
MitigationPossible
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate Change
Mitigation policies: 2050-2100– Example: reduction in GHG emissions
Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050– Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive
economic advantage Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015
– Example: redefining climate “normals” when needed and scientifically justified
Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”: 2007-2100– Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods,
combination of both; drought and wildfire
EST personal view
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) Longer frost-free period (high) Higher average winter temperatures (high) Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) More (~10%) precipitation (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)– Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive
“Warming Hole”
TTmaxmax (JJA) (JJA)˚C
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation,
see my online Global Change course:http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
Contact me directly:[email protected]
Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Programhttp://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website:http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/
Or just Google Eugene Takle
