Digital Convergence and U-computingDigital Convergence and U-computing

Byungtae Lee, Ph.D.ProfessorGraduate School of ManagementKorea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 2

AgendaAgenda

Getting StartedDigital Convergence and uComputingWhat makes us concerned?Reading Crystal BallsConclusion

Getting StartedThe Future of WorkingGetting StartedThe Future of Working

EasyLiving/ASI Highlights: Images and Captions for the Microsoft Museum

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 4

eBiz LiteracyeBiz Literacy

Easy Living Project (Microsoft)

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 5

Working with Large Amounts of Information on a Wall DisplayWorking with Large Amounts of Information on a Wall Display

A user’s information is displayed within a 3D user interface on a wall-display. (A)Icons for frequently contacted colleagues are arranged by project while (B) files are segregated by project and time. (C)A summary of new information, sorted by criticality, as well as a todo list are shown superimposed over the information collection. (D)Related links for each item are easily accessed.

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 6

Working TogetherWorking Together

During collaboration a (A) compact representation each person’s information space appears with only public information shown.Each user points and looks at items in the information space, before speaking, thus indicating that their speech should be interpreted as dictation. (B) Visual cues show that changes are flagged as tentative until they are accepted by both people.

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 7

Working from HomeWorking from HomeA person working from home engages in an augmented video-teleconference with a (A)colleague at the office. The various PCs, sensors, displays, and devices are integrated with the existing home environment. For example, (B) switch plates near the door of each room show the privacy-state of each room, and provide simple touch-screen interfaces to common room controls. (C) The room is aware of where people are and automatically switches to use the best video feed.

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 8

Working in a more Comfortable Place – Dynamic FWorking in a more Comfortable Place – Dynamic FoSometimes we may want to change where we are working. Here a person working from home has decided to tele-collaborate while fixing lunch for the kids. (A) The system has automatically moved the appropriate video feed to the kitchen and has (B) simplified the display to accommodate the smaller display and noisier environment.

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 9

Working in a Crowded EnvironmentWorking in a Crowded Environment

A person working from home engages in an augmented video-teleconference with a (A) colleague at the office. (B) People who are not actually part of the meeting are automatically obscured. (C) Documents in each person’s environment are labeled via on-screen overlays.During the conversation, (D) video insets show what the kids are up to in other parts of the house and the (E) outgoing video.

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 10

Working, Sharing, and RevisingWorking, Sharing, and Revising

(A) A participant at a meeting makes suggested changes, including sketches, via a handheld PC. (B) Items can be “dragged” from the handheld device to the wall display.(C) Remote participants are shown in a peripheral region.

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 11

Working on the Move - Public KiosksWorking on the Move - Public KiosksIn the future, outdoor kiosks could be made sport 3D holographic displays.Here a person walks up to a public kiosk and is greeted with personalized information, in this case a (A) collection of news stories, hierarchically arranged. (B) The person places their handheld computer next to the kiosk so that information “flows”from the kiosk into the handheld computer.

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 12

AgendaAgenda

1. Digital Convergence and uComputing1. Technology Matters2. Dotcom Bubble Bursts3. Next (Big) Waves?

2. What makes us concerned?3. Reading Crystal Balls4. Conclusion

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 13

Technology and Macro-historyTechnology and Macro-history

Source: Guns, Germs, and Steel (Diamond, 2000)

High Tech always has decided “winners” in mankind history

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 14

Technology DiffusionTechnology DiffusionWe have accumulated a large number of amazing component

(base) technologies, accelerating relentless technology progress.

Phaistos Disk made at 1700 B.C.Paper Book, China 800 A.D.Printed Book, 1400 A.D. In Europe

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 15

Why Technology ?Why Technology ?We are living in a truly extraordinary times. IT is a pinnacle of High

Tech evolution

Source: Fogel, 1999

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 16

Technophysio EvolutionTechnophysio Evolution

Technology changes not only tools but in and out of ourselves

New species of Homo sapiens50% increase in body size100% increase in longevity

Acceleration of Technological ChangesPlow (4000 B.C to 200 AD) without design changeAircraft: a few hundreds flight in 1903, arrived at Moon in 1969Color TV, 30 yearsInternet (WWW) took only 4 years

Telecommunication and Information Technology even increase this acceleration

Homogeneous Homo sapiens

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 17

Britannica Story – Collapse of 300 years old BrandBritannica Story – Collapse of 300 years old BrandDisruptive Technologies wiped out many businesses

Founded in 1768Sold for $1600 per set1992 Microsoft introduced CD version of encyclopedia for $49.951996, Britannica sold $325 Millions, CD $200 Lost 80% of revenue in 1999

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 18

Dot Com Failures – Work of “A few big dreamers and millions of fools”Dot Com Failures – Work of “A few big dreamers and millions of fools”

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 19

DotCom GraveyardDotCom Graveyard

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 20

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 21

Why Panic?Why Panic?

DotCom Failure

1 2 2 1

1317

20

10

22

36

50 49

5559

44

59 60

5350

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

Dot.

Gone's

2001

2000

Source: Webmergers.com

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 22

Failing Dotcoms M&A and BankruptcyFailing Dotcoms M&A and Bankruptcy

78 212 228 312

1446 12831085

780

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2001 2002 2003

Bankrupcy

M&Aed

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 23

Emerging WinnersEmerging Winners

•4Q of 2002, 40% listed dotcoms recorded black.

•Many will follow…BusinessWeek (02/18/2003)

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 24

EPS trends of listed Dotcom’sEPS trends of listed Dotcom’s

eTailer

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

1Q-01 2Q-01 3Q-01 4Q-01 1Q-02 2Q-02 3Q-02 4Q-02

Quarter

EP

S

eBay

Expedia

Overstock

Amazon

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 25

Winners emerging through competition and consolidationWinners emerging through competition and consolidation

Microsoft for last 15 yearsDotcom’s following the trend but with faster pace

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 26

eMalls are winning… in KoreaeMalls are winning… in Korea

Internet

인터넷 매트릭스 (2003.2.13)

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 27

eBusiness: from Dotcoms to e-TransformationeBusiness: from Dotcoms to e-Transformation

No more fantasyRe-recognizing importance of Business FundamentalsFrom revolution to evolutionE-Transformation, Process Innovation Oriented

Source: The 7 steps to Nirvana (e비즈니스 바이블)

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 28

U-Computing, U-Networking, uBiz, … uEverythingU-Computing, U-Networking, uBiz, … uEverything

Ubiquitous Computing – Mark Weiser, 1988, Xerox PARCEasy to use ComputingHuman Oriented Computing Imagined embedded computing in physical space and networking but mobile computing emerged importantUtilitization of computing Exists but we do not recognize

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 29

Building Blocks of UcomputingBuilding Blocks of Ucomputing

5 Key Technologies1. Sensors2. Interface3. Processors4. Communication (uNetworking)5. Security

Current ComputingHuman provides sensing and interface for computersHuman spends more time to learn machines than do works

UcomputingComputer senses information and provides proper interface for humanAutonomous computing/decisions

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 30

Emerging Key TechnologiesEmerging Key Technologies

P2P/GridWWW, Java, WAP, XML

Network Applications/ Middleware

Applications

Passive and Proactive sensorsWLAN (Bluetooth, RF I/F)Invisible IO

Intelligent, Direct Interfacing

Human Interface

IPv6Grid

Seamless ConnectionsNetworks

Micro chipsNano, Parallel etcLow energy consumptionPersonal Security

Miniature, Embedded, Invisible

Processors (Computers)

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 31

Wonderful New World of Technologies?Wonderful New World of Technologies?

IPv6 – 5x10^26 IP addresses per personComputing Infra

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 32

Post PCPost PC

PostPost--PCPC• Consumer Application focus Devices

Internet TV

Digital STB(지상파, Cable, 위성)

Thin client (Web Terminal)

Auto PC

Home PAD

Smart Phone PAD Wireless Hand PC

E-book Narrow Definition of PostNarrow Definition of Post PCPCPersonal/Mobile Devices

HPC

Internet Game Devices

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 33

uComputing and Digital ConvergenceuComputing and Digital Convergence

Mo

bile

Ubiquitous Computing

Mobile

Computing

Mo

bility

Fix

ed

Current Computing

Pervasive

Computing

V i s i b l e E m b e d d e d n e s s I n v i s i b l e

CACM, December 2002

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 34

How to achieve uComputing?How to achieve uComputing?

More Embeddedness (Pervasiveness)Silent ComputingSentient ComputingDisposable Computing

More MobilityWearable/Implantable ComputingNomadic Computing

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 35

uComputing and Digital ConvergenceuComputing and Digital Convergence

Ubiquitous Computing

CACM, December 2002

Expansion of Usage

Embedded in Environment

Intelligent Devices

Intelligent and Miniaturization of Devices

Mobile Devices

Wearable DevicesEmbedded

in Goods

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 36

uSpace and uComputinguSpace and uComputing

mComputingAccess services by Any* (where, time, device) over Cyber Space (only in Internet)

uComputingReal computing services by Just its (Just here, this device and me)

Wireless Near LANLocation OrientedInvisible Intelligent ProcessorsCalm Technology

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 37

uSpaceuSpace

2003 (?) -1998-2002- PresentTime

One to many invisible computers

One to One computer

Many to one computer

Usage of Computers

Computer planted in real space

Virtual Objects in Computers

Objects planted in Space

Utility Formation

Mobile IPv6Fixed IPv4Physical AddressSpace Representation

uNetwork + Intelligent Environment, Objects

Internet + WebLand + ObjectsSpace CompositionIntelligent SpaceCyber, Logical Euclid SpaceSpace Features

Sensible without Touching

IntangibleTangibleSensing SpaceAtoms+BitsBitsAtomsBasic Elements

uSpaceeSpacePhysical SpaceSpace

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 38

uComputing and MarketsuComputing and Markets

CACM, December 2002

Current Computing

Ubiquitous Computing

Invisible Em

beddednessV

isible

F i x e d M o b i l i t y M o b i l e

Continuous Evolution

New Markets

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 39

uBiz Market Prediction uBiz Market Prediction

70,25025,250Total2,500670Platforms6,5004,580Devices12,4205,170Services20,1606,080Commerce

28,6708,750NetworksYear 2010Year 2005

Source: M. of Industry of Korea, Unit: Million Dollars

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 40

A new segment opening up for systems integratorsA new segment opening up for systems integrators

Evolution of Wireless Computing Buildout

Complexity of solutions increases exponentially

Proprietary

Web-Wireless$500k+

m-Commerce

$1M+

m-Business$2M+

Websites$500k

$5M+

e-Business$20M+

Select verticals –Niche adopting

• WAP conversion• Advanced SMS• Push• B2C

• Enterprise-wireless

• Apps driven• SCM/CRM• B2B verticals

• Wireless business models• Application -based• Wireless exchanges• Personalization• e-Markets

Wireless

Wireline

• Brochure-ware

Complexity

Avg. Project Size

WAP

Mar

ket S

ize

• B2B exchanges

• e-CRM

• E-Markets• “the Grid”• New business

models

• Back-office integration • Internet/extranet

development

e-Commerce$1M

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000e 2001e 2003e2002e

Source: Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 41

Promises…Promises…..When, Where, How?.Promises…Promises…..When, Where, How?.

Evolution to 3G/IMT-2000

3G

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 42

Business models overseas may not be carried out in the U.S. due to multiple technologies and standardsBusiness models overseas may not be carried out in the U.S. due to multiple technologies and standards

U.S. Next Generation Network Overview

Voice:HIGHData: LOWBW:

Capability

Ban

dwid

th &

Ser

vice

s

Many U.S. carriers

Providers

NoneServices

ANALOG

Voice:HIGHData :MEDIUMBW:

Capability

AT&TSprintOmnipointNextel

Providers

WAPSMS

Services

Voice:MEDIUMData: HIGHBW:

Capability

VoiceStreamAT&T WirelessPacBell

Providers

GPRSWAPSMS

Services

Voice: LOWData: HIGHBW:

Capability

None yet -all carriers expected

Providers

MultimediaXMLWAPSMS

Voice:LOWData: VERY HIGHBW:

Services

Capability

UnknownProviders

MultimediaVideo/Audio Streaming

Services

Long Set-up “Instant-on”via GPRS

“Always-on”via UMTS

DIGITAL DIGITAL DIGITAL DIGITAL

Low-Speed Ubiquitous

2003 20XX20051995 2001

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 43

4G networks are the “holy grail” providing complete ubiquity - Fire up!4G networks are the “holy grail” providing complete ubiquity - Fire up!

Strength Weakness ActivityTechnology SecurityInfrastructure Capacity

Fire Up! Fire Up! Fire Up! Fire Up! Fire Up! Fire Up! Fire Up!

“Ubiquitous” - DIGITAL

1995 2001 2005 20XX

Voice:HIGHData: LOWBW:

Capability

Ban

dwid

th &

Ser

vice

s

Many U.S. carriers

Providers

NoneServices

ANALOG

Voice:HIGHData :MEDIUMBW:

Capability

AT&TSprintOmnipointNextel

Providers

WAPSMS

Services

Voice:MEDIUMData: HIGHBW:

Capability

VoiceStreamAT&T WirelessPacBell

Providers

GPRSWAPSMS

Services

Voice: LOWData: HIGHBW:

Capability

None yet -all carriers expected

Providers

MultimediaXMLWAPSMS

Services

Long Set-up “Instant-on”via GPRS

“Always-on”via UMTS

DIGITAL DIGITAL DIGITAL DIGITAL

Low-Speed Ubiquitous

2003

Unlimited Bandwidth

Providers in

Harmony

100’s of Services

FIRE UP!

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 44

Today’s devices are rapidly evolving into sophisticated, specialized thick clientsToday’s devices are rapidly evolving into sophisticated, specialized thick clients

1G 2G 2.5G 3G

“Always-On”Capabilities

Voice Only

MultimediaCommunicator

Devices

Data Only

Voice & DataVoice & TextMessagingVoice

Voice Centric Devices Data Centric Devices

AnalogSingle mode

Analog/DigitalDual mode

2Way pager PDA Multiple bandDual mode

Multiple bandDual mode

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 45

Five generic groups of players together constitute the industry structure, or value chain, providing a basic framework for the future of uCommerce

Terminal Vendor

Content Provider

Service Provider

Network Provider

Infrastructure Vendor

Example: • Ericsson• Nokia• Lucent• Nortel

• Telia• Telenor• AT&T• KPN Qwest

• Telia• Telenor• Sense• Virgin Mobile

• Microsoft• Reuters• Picofun• Volvo

• Sony• Nokia• Panasonic• Siemens

Five generic groups of players together constitute the industry structure, or value chain, providing a basic framework for the future of uCommerce

Sample offerings:

• Base stations• Cables• Switches• Satellites

• Access to cellular network

• Access to TV-cable

• Mobile subscriptions

• DTV subscriptions• Internet access

• Email• News• TV programming• Engine diagnostics

• Cellular phone• Digital TV box• PDA• PCs

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 46

Pilot ProjectsPilot Projects

HP – Cool Town ProjectMS – Easy Living ProjectBurkeley SMART DUST (Autonomous sensing and communication in a cubic millimeter

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 47

MS - EasyLivingMS - EasyLiving

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 48

Easy Living- Beyond Mobile ComputingEasy Living- Beyond Mobile Computing

ProcessorProcessor

Data StoreData Store

UIUIDeviceDevice

BusBus

Desktop ComputingDesktop Computing Mobile ComputingMobile Computing

Highly Integrated ComputingHighly Integrated Computing

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 49

Smart-Its Project in EuropSmart-Its Project in Europ

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 50

More Pilot ProjectsMore Pilot Projects

MIT Media Lab – Project Oxygen

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 51

AgendaAgenda

1. Digital Convergence and uComputing2. What makes us concerned?

1. Winners of eBiz2. Who made money from this revolution3. Lesson Learned

3. Reading Crystal Balls4. Conclusion

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 52

Who Made Money?Who Made Money?

Venture Capitalists – Before Fools realize an extraoridnary times of uncertainty and unreasoningNew Space Enablers“Good” Land GrabbersE-Transformers (New Business Model Inventors)

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 53

Competitive Rivalry from Existing Firms

TechnologyRegulatory

Environment

Changing Social Values

Substitutes

SuppliersBuyers

New EntrantsEconomic Changes

Demographic Changes

Dynamic and Uncertain WorldDynamic and Uncertain World

Lexus and The Olive TreeGlobalization Democratization of Information AccessDemocratization of Investment (Electronic Herds)

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 54

Empowered CustomersEmpowered Customers

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 55

Anti-sitesAnti-sites

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 56

Game of Eyeballs and Ears – 광고에 대한 면역Game of Eyeballs and Ears – 광고에 대한 면역

Commercial and Internet Messages per Day per Person

(US)

3,000 20 years ago, 80 percent of a target audience in many countries could be reached with one 30-second, off-peak television spot

Reaching the same audience today often requires between 200 and 300 prime-time TV spots.

Other Consumer Messages (all media)

Total Internet Consumer Messages440650

2,560

1985 2000

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 57

Winners - Dell

Eliminate Value Destruction in High Tech Retailing

Direct Sell

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 58

Naver In KoreaNaver In Korea

Lack of Korean Web PagesAlready Global Competition in Portal Sites“Jisik-In” revolutionalized Portal Business Model

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 59

Progressive Insurance

Customer is billed retrospectively every month driving record

25-50% savings in premiums

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 60

Progressive is piloting usage-based auto insurance in TexasProgressive is piloting usage-based auto insurance in Texas

Real Time/Risk Rated Auto Coverage

Pilot was started in Houston in 1998 with 200 selected customers

Makes use of on-board GPS technology to track vehicle position every 6 minutes

Progressive’s system “calls” the car monthly to extract where, when, how far and how fast the car was driving

Insurance is then priced “by the mile”, in accordance with the various risks associated with different locations, different hours of driving and total miles driven (speed not yet used in pricing)

Value to customer:Lower insurance premiums (frequently 25% and up to 60%)Add-on services (e.g., emergency assistance)

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 61

OTIS Elevator – Sense and Response Model

OTIS CaseFrom Maintenance to Prevention

Elevator with Sensor

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 62

Business Model InnovationBusiness Model Innovation

Alternative to Product Innovation

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 63

Changes in Business Models

Management SystemsOrganization Structure

Culture

Processes

Discernable Change

Significant Change

Transform-ation

Reconfiguration

Value Chain

Improve Efficiency in Operation

Change Rules of Game

Changes in Business Models

Dotcoms showed changes in Rules of Game

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 64

AgendaAgenda

1. Digital Convergence and uComputing2. What makes us concerned?3. Reading Crystal Balls

Discussion Questions4. Conclusion

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 65

Time Well SpentTime Well SpentUbiquitous Computers are here

737,681 Lifetimes

3 min per MIPS

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 66

Capital Spending on ITCapital Spending on IT

BEA 2001

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 67

Decades Old “IT Productivity Paradox”Decades Old “IT Productivity Paradox”

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 68

Big Debate: Does IT Matter? (HBR, May 2003)Big Debate: Does IT Matter? (HBR, May 2003)

IT Doesn’t MatterNot a proprietary technology

CommodityBecame Infra-technologyEssential Inconsequential

Be DefensiveSpend lessFollow, don’t leadFocus on vulnerabilities, not opportunities

Nicholas G. Carr

IT Does MatterStill the golden age

New Org StructureNew Rules of CompetitionOpen System, Grid Computing, CBDDeeper Societal Change

Be OffensiveNon-linear TransformationRisk Taker Gains Advantage

Mcfarlan and Noland

Which side are you with?

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 69

Within the wirelesses opportunity landscape, we believe there are 5 potential strategic optionsWithin the wirelesses opportunity landscape, we believe there are 5 potential strategic options

ILLUSTRATIVE

SignificantModest

1. Business Model Extenders

Description“M” ify existing products and services – channel extensions

ExampleWireless trading and account access

2. Operational Enhancers

DescriptionLeverage mCommerce applications to radically reduce process complexity and cost or reduce asset intensity

ExampleMobile CRM

4. Value Chain Annihilators

DescriptionDisintegrate existing value chain components and move to create new value chain segments

ExampleMobile, automated insurance adjustor3. Market

Creators

DescriptionCreate new types of transactions with new products and service offerings, and new markets and channels

ExampleP2P payment systemsLocalized services

5. ProductInventors

DescriptionThe Holy Grail – new products and services that redefine customers, products and services to create sustainable competitive advantage

ExampleProactive securities advisorMobile open financePay by the mile insurance

FSI mCommerce Opportunity Option Mapping

Significant

Impr

ovem

ents

in C

ost t

o Se

rve

Modest

Improvements in Customer Value

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 70

Today, however, most current and planned offerings are business model extensionsToday, however, most current and planned offerings are business model extensions

ILLUSTRATIVECurrent & Planned FSI Offering MapSignificant

Modest

Stock alerts

News and Research

View Accounts

Branch or Agent Locator

Transaction History

Stock Trading

Credit Card Application

OrderChecks EBPP

Order Confirmation

Funds Transfer

Overdraft alerts

eWallet

View Portfolio

Portfolio Changes

MobileAgent

Tech Barrier, e.g., “The Wall”

Impr

ovem

ents

in C

ost t

o Se

rve

Modest

SignificantImprovements in Customer Value

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 71

Discussion QuestionsDiscussion Questions

uBiz is another revolution or a natural extention of eBusiness as in mBusiness?Who will make space more valuable and who will grab “new” space?What kinds of uBusiness Models do you expect?Technology Walls and Golden Technology?

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 72

AgendaAgenda

1. Digital Convergence and uComputing2. What makes us concerned?3. Reading Crystal Balls4. Conclusion

APEC 2004 SME(09/21/04)

Byungtae Lee 73

ConclusionConclusion

Full of Hypes and FadsA few Big Dreamers Always a very small number of WinnersNumber Test of New Business Models

&KAIST 이병태 교수

958-3629, 011-239-6569btlee@kgsm.kaist.ac.kr