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Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link Between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations John H. Cochrane The Journal of Finance, Vol. 46, No. 1. (Mar., 1991), pp. 209-237. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199103%2946%3A1%3C209%3APAPATL%3E2.0.CO%3B2-7 The Journal of Finance is currently published by American Finance Association. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/about/terms.html. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www.jstor.org/journals/afina.html. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. The JSTOR Archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long-term preservation and access to leading academic journals and scholarly literature from around the world. The Archive is supported by libraries, scholarly societies, publishers, and foundations. It is an initiative of JSTOR, a not-for-profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community take advantage of advances in technology. For more information regarding JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. http://www.jstor.org Wed Aug 1 20:11:57 2007

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Page 1: Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link Between Stock …pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/GE_asset_pricing/adjustment... · 2007-08-02 · The Stock Market and Investment Robert J

Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link Between Stock Returns andEconomic Fluctuations

John H. Cochrane

The Journal of Finance, Vol. 46, No. 1. (Mar., 1991), pp. 209-237.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199103%2946%3A1%3C209%3APAPATL%3E2.0.CO%3B2-7

The Journal of Finance is currently published by American Finance Association.

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available athttp://www.jstor.org/about/terms.html. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtainedprior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content inthe JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use.

Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained athttp://www.jstor.org/journals/afina.html.

Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printedpage of such transmission.

The JSTOR Archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long-term preservation and access to leading academicjournals and scholarly literature from around the world. The Archive is supported by libraries, scholarly societies, publishers,and foundations. It is an initiative of JSTOR, a not-for-profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community takeadvantage of advances in technology. For more information regarding JSTOR, please contact [email protected].

http://www.jstor.orgWed Aug 1 20:11:57 2007

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You have printed the following article:

Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link Between Stock Returns and EconomicFluctuationsJohn H. CochraneThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 46, No. 1. (Mar., 1991), pp. 209-237.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199103%2946%3A1%3C209%3APAPATL%3E2.0.CO%3B2-7

This article references the following linked citations. If you are trying to access articles from anoff-campus location, you may be required to first logon via your library web site to access JSTOR. Pleasevisit your library's website or contact a librarian to learn about options for remote access to JSTOR.

[Footnotes]

1 Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock PricesEugene F. Fama; Kenneth R. FrenchThe Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 96, No. 2. (Apr., 1988), pp. 246-273.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28198804%2996%3A2%3C246%3APATCOS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-B

1 Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple SpecificationTestAndrew W. Lo; A. Craig MacKinlayThe Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1. (Spring, 1988), pp. 41-66.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0893-9454%28198821%291%3A1%3C41%3ASMPDNF%3E2.0.CO%3B2-U

1 The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic ActivityArturo Estrella; Gikas A. HardouvelisThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 46, No. 2. (Jun., 1991), pp. 555-576.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199106%2946%3A2%3C555%3ATTSAAP%3E2.0.CO%3B2-0

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS- Page 1 of 6 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.

Page 32: Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link Between Stock …pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/GE_asset_pricing/adjustment... · 2007-08-02 · The Stock Market and Investment Robert J

1 The Stock Market and InvestmentRobert J. BarroThe Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 3, No. 1, National Bureau of Economic Research Conference:Stock Market Volatility and the Crash, Dorado Beach, March 16-18, 1989. (1990), pp. 115-131.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0893-9454%281990%293%3A1%3C115%3ATSMAI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-P

1 Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and MoneyEugene F. FamaThe American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No. 4. (Sep., 1981), pp. 545-565.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28198109%2971%3A4%3C545%3ASRRAIA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-D

1 Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real ActivityEugene F. FamaThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 45, No. 4. (Sep., 1990), pp. 1089-1108.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199009%2945%3A4%3C1089%3ASRERAR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-1

4 The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in InvestmentAndrew B. Abel; Olivier J. BlanchardEconometrica, Vol. 54, No. 2. (Mar., 1986), pp. 249-273.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28198603%2954%3A2%3C249%3ATPVOPA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-1

4 Investment, Adjustment Costs, and UncertaintyRoger CraineInternational Economic Review, Vol. 16, No. 3. (Oct., 1975), pp. 648-661.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0020-6598%28197510%2916%3A3%3C648%3AIACAU%3E2.0.CO%3B2-K

4 The Dynamic Demand for Capital and LaborMatthew D. ShapiroThe Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 101, No. 3. (Aug., 1986), pp. 513-542.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0033-5533%28198608%29101%3A3%3C513%3ATDDFCA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-C

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS- Page 2 of 6 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.

Page 33: Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link Between Stock …pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/GE_asset_pricing/adjustment... · 2007-08-02 · The Stock Market and Investment Robert J

5 The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable Restrictions Implied by DynamicAsset Pricing ModelsLars Peter Hansen; Scott F. RichardEconometrica, Vol. 55, No. 3. (May, 1987), pp. 587-613.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28198705%2955%3A3%3C587%3ATROCII%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Y

6 Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient MarketRonald J. Balvers; Thomas F. Cosimano; Bill McDonaldThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 45, No. 4. (Sep., 1990), pp. 1109-1128.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199009%2945%3A4%3C1109%3APSRIAE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-3

6 Asset Prices in an Exchange EconomyRobert E. Lucas, Jr.Econometrica, Vol. 46, No. 6. (Nov., 1978), pp. 1429-1445.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28197811%2946%3A6%3C1429%3AAPIAEE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-I

References

The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in InvestmentAndrew B. Abel; Olivier J. BlanchardEconometrica, Vol. 54, No. 2. (Mar., 1986), pp. 249-273.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28198603%2954%3A2%3C249%3ATPVOPA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-1

Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient MarketRonald J. Balvers; Thomas F. Cosimano; Bill McDonaldThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 45, No. 4. (Sep., 1990), pp. 1109-1128.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199009%2945%3A4%3C1109%3APSRIAE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-3

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS- Page 3 of 6 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.

Page 34: Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link Between Stock …pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/GE_asset_pricing/adjustment... · 2007-08-02 · The Stock Market and Investment Robert J

The Stock Market and InvestmentRobert J. BarroThe Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 3, No. 1, National Bureau of Economic Research Conference:Stock Market Volatility and the Crash, Dorado Beach, March 16-18, 1989. (1990), pp. 115-131.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0893-9454%281990%293%3A1%3C115%3ATSMAI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-P

The Sensitivity of Tests of the Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption to Near-RationalAlternativesJohn H. CochraneThe American Economic Review, Vol. 79, No. 3. (Jun., 1989), pp. 319-337.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28198906%2979%3A3%3C319%3ATSOTOT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-P

Investment, Adjustment Costs, and UncertaintyRoger CraineInternational Economic Review, Vol. 16, No. 3. (Oct., 1975), pp. 648-661.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0020-6598%28197510%2916%3A3%3C648%3AIACAU%3E2.0.CO%3B2-K

The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic ActivityArturo Estrella; Gikas A. HardouvelisThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 46, No. 2. (Jun., 1991), pp. 555-576.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199106%2946%3A2%3C555%3ATTSAAP%3E2.0.CO%3B2-0

Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and MoneyEugene F. FamaThe American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No. 4. (Sep., 1981), pp. 545-565.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28198109%2971%3A4%3C545%3ASRRAIA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-D

Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real ActivityEugene F. FamaThe Journal of Finance, Vol. 45, No. 4. (Sep., 1990), pp. 1089-1108.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199009%2945%3A4%3C1089%3ASRERAR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-1

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS- Page 4 of 6 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.

Page 35: Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link Between Stock …pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/GE_asset_pricing/adjustment... · 2007-08-02 · The Stock Market and Investment Robert J

Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock PricesEugene F. Fama; Kenneth R. FrenchThe Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 96, No. 2. (Apr., 1988), pp. 246-273.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28198804%2996%3A2%3C246%3APATCOS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-B

The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable Restrictions Implied by DynamicAsset Pricing ModelsLars Peter Hansen; Scott F. RichardEconometrica, Vol. 55, No. 3. (May, 1987), pp. 587-613.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28198705%2955%3A3%3C587%3ATROCII%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Y

Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification TestAndrew W. Lo; A. Craig MacKinlayThe Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1. (Spring, 1988), pp. 41-66.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0893-9454%28198821%291%3A1%3C41%3ASMPDNF%3E2.0.CO%3B2-U

Asset Prices in an Exchange EconomyRobert E. Lucas, Jr.Econometrica, Vol. 46, No. 6. (Nov., 1978), pp. 1429-1445.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28197811%2946%3A6%3C1429%3AAPIAEE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-I

A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation ConsistentCovariance MatrixWhitney K. Newey; Kenneth D. WestEconometrica, Vol. 55, No. 3. (May, 1987), pp. 703-708.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28198705%2955%3A3%3C703%3AASPSHA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-F

Two Models of Measurements and the Investment AcceleratorThomas J. SargentThe Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 97, No. 2. (Apr., 1989), pp. 251-287.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28198904%2997%3A2%3C251%3ATMOMAT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-T

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS- Page 5 of 6 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.

Page 36: Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link Between Stock …pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/GE_asset_pricing/adjustment... · 2007-08-02 · The Stock Market and Investment Robert J

The Dynamic Demand for Capital and LaborMatthew D. ShapiroThe Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 101, No. 3. (Aug., 1986), pp. 513-542.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0033-5533%28198608%29101%3A3%3C513%3ATDDFCA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-C

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS- Page 6 of 6 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.