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Probabilistic Forecasting for Local Flooding. David Leedal , Paul Smith, Keith Beven and Peter Young Lancaster Environment Centre. Local Flood Forecasting. Level sensors are cheap and easily networked. fittings. Depth sensor. Data…. GPRS/IP logger. 900. £500. 950. £400. Total: £. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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www.floodrisk.org.uk EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1
Probabilistic Forecasting for Local Flooding
David Leedal, Paul Smith, Keith Beven and Peter Young
Lancaster Environment Centre
Local Flood Forecasting
• Level sensors are cheap and easily networked
GPRS/IP logger
Depth sensor
fittings
£500 £50 500900950Total: ££400
Data…
Local Flood Forecasting• Level sensors are
quick to installation• Work with rainfall or
level input• Provide a forecast
where it’s needed
tree
Local Flood ForecastingData Based Mechanistic (DBM) Modelling Approach
• Simple nonlinearity + transfer function model within stochastic data assimilation framework
• Identification of State Dependent Nonlinearity directly from data added in FRMRC1
• Further development of data assimilation from local sensors in FRMRC2
River Eden Sensor NetworkFunded by FRMRC2 to (a) Test HD model predictions and (b) Test local flood forecasting
Stead McAlpin
Local flood forecasting test site:
Local Forecasting at Stead McAlpin (river Caldew nr. Carlisle)
• Stead McAlpin Factory – flooded in Jan 2005 (almost in 2009 & 2010)
2 hour forecast 4 hour forecast 5 hour forecast
Mean forecast
Standard error
Hourly observations
Forecasting ResultsCalibration: Nov 2009 event Testing: Nov 2010 event
Summary• Local flood forecasts might be useful to local
stakeholders, even with short to medium forecast lead times
• FRMRC2 has produced a simple way of providing local flood forecasts with estimates of forecast uncertainty using local level sensors and on-line data assimilation
• Further work on self-calibrating models is on-going – install-and-leave
www.floodrisk.org.uk EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1
AcknowledgementThe research reported in this presentation was conducted as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium with support from the:
• Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council • Department of Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs/Environment Agency Joint Research Programme • United Kingdom Water Industry Research• Office of Public Works Dublin• Northern Ireland Rivers Agency
Data were provided by the EA and the Ordnance Survey.