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PRESENTATION MATERIAL
Priority Hydro Power Projects Suggested for Construction Under
China – Pakistan Economic Corridor
By
Riaz Nazir Tarar
Dr. Izhar-ul-Haq
Muhammad Jabbar
Islamabad March 29, 2017
CPEC Seminar Opportunities and Challenges
S-1
MEDIUM TERM ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND
GENERATION EXPANSION PLAN FORM 2017-2015
2 2016-17 25,000 25092 b) 3,870 147 4
3 2017-18 27,000 31,807 6,715 2,378 35
Tarbela 4th
Extension &
Neelum Jehlum
2,378
4 2018-19 29,000 33,656 1,849
5 2019-20 31,000 39,778 6,122 230 4 Keyal Khwar 128
6 2020-21 34,000 45,098 5,620 1,410 27 Tarbela Fifth
Extension 1,410
7 2021-22 37,000 48,218 3,120 720 23 Karot 720
8 2022-23 40,000 53,568 5,350 3,030 57 Dasu Phase-I
& Suki Kinari 3,030
9 2023-24 43,000 61,234 7,666 2,136 28
10 2024-25 46,000 70,235 9,001 2,250 25 Diamer Basha
(Phase-I) 2,250
Total 49,313 12,301 25 9,916
Share of Public Sector
Hydro
% Projects
Aggregate
Capacity
(MW)
Proposed
Installed
Capacity (MW)
Projected
Peak Demand
(MW) a)
2015-16
Sr.
No.Total Hydro
Fiscal YearProposed Addition
(MW)
a. At annual compound growth of 8%
b. Starting from installed capacity of 22,802 MW in 2015-16
S-2
IDENTIFIED HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL OF UPPER INDUS
AND JHELUM RIVER BASINS
Sr.
No. River / Tributary
Identified Capacity
(MW) Development Mode
1. Indus River and Tributaries
Indus Main 40,700 A combination of storage and run-or-river (RoR)
facilities particularly through Shyok Dam Project, Bunji
Hydropower Project, Diamer Basha Dam Project and
three cascade projects of Dasu, Pattan, Thakot and
Kalabag Dam
Tributaries 8,900 RoR
Sub-total (1) 49,600
2. Jhelum and Tributaries
Jhelum River 5,300 RoR except 1000 MW at Mangla Dam
Tributaries 1,900 RoR
Sub-total (2) 7,200
3. Total (1+2) 56,800
S-5
INITIALLY IDENTIFIED HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL ON INDUS MAIN
(MONENCO’S RANKING STUDY, 1982)
Sr.
No.
Scheme Identified Development
Potential
(MW)
Current Engineering Status
River Site
1. Indus Basha 3,360 Since enhanced to 4500 MW based on subsequent
studies / engineering design of Diamer Basha Dam
Project
2. Indus Tungus 1,300 Since enhanced to 2200 MW based on Pre-
feasibility Study
3. Indus Yulbo 1,500 Since enhanced to 2800 MW based on Pre-
feasibility Study
4. Indus Bunji 2,900 Since enhanced to 7100 MW based on Feasibility
Study combining the two sites 5. Indus Rakhiot (Raikot) 2,700
6. Indus Dasu 5,500 Already engineered for 4320 MW with Stage-I of
2460 MW under implementation
7. Indus High Thakot 2,400 Since bifurcated into Pattan & Thakot; Feasibility for
2380 MW at Pattan already completed; and
Feasibility Study of Thakot in hand through three
sub-cascades to develop 3900 MW.
Total 19,660 27,200
S-8
CASCADING EFFECT OF DIAMER BASHA DAM PROJECT ON
DOWNSTREAM HYDROPOWER PROJECTS
Sr.
No. Location
Installed
Capacity
(MW)
Status
Cascading Effect of
Annual Additional
Generation (GWh)
Remarks
I. Existing Projects
1. Tarbela 3478
In operation
1300
With enhancement of installed
capacity to 6298 MW through 4th and
5th extensions, additional generation
between 15-20% may become
possible
1100 2. Ghazi-Barotha 1450
3. Jinnah 96
40
Estimated @ 10% of annual
generation with 50% plant factor
4. Chashma 184 80
5. Sub-Total I (1 to 4) 5208 2520
II. Upcoming Projects
1. Dasu 4320 Under Two
Stage
Implementation
5400 At about 25% of estimated total
annual generation of 21500 GWh
2. Pattan 2380 Feasibility
Completed
1900 Based on 2015 Feasibility Study
3. Thahkot 3900 Feasibility in
hand
3200 15% of estimated total annual
generation of 21,300 GWh
4. Sub-Total II (1 to 3) 10,600 10500
III. Total Cascading Effect of Diamer
Basha Dam Project (I + II)
15,808 13,020 Over 70% of annual at site
generation of 18100 GWh
S-9
COMPARATIVE GENERATION COSTS FOR VARIOUS
MODES
Sr.
No. Generation Mode
Generation Cost
(US ¢ents / kWh) Remarks
1. Hydropower
i. Multipurpose DBDP 7.6 Considering cascading effect on
downstream Projects, it will reduce to 4.4
US ¢ents / kWh
ii. Run-of-River 5.2 Pattan Hydropower Project of Indus
Cascade
2. Thermal
i. Natural Gas 7.7
According JICA Report, October 2015
ii. Coal (Imported) 10.4
iii. Liquefied Natural Gas 11.8
iv. Furnace Oil 16.7
3. Nuclear 13.0
4. Other Renewables: -
i. Solar 14.0
Approximate upfront tariffs of NEPRA ii. Wind 12.0
i. Biomass 10.0
S-10
CONCLUSIONS
i. Medium term peak electricity demand is conservatively projected to enhance from 25000 MW (2017)
to 68000 MW (2030) showing an increase of about 270%. Even by the year 2025, it will gross to 46000
MW showing an increase of about 84%.
ii. Coping strategy with this demand under National Power Policy 2013 envisages developments, both
under public / private sectors, through the modes of: thermal hydropower; nuclear; solar; wind; and
bio-mass.
iii. Out of the proposed additional generation of over 49000 MW till 2024-25, share of hydro is 12300 MW
constituting only 25%. Further, basic emphasis is on hydropower generation through run-of-river
mode.
iv. Under CPEC, a capacity of 10400 MW is going to be added over the next few years. However, this
includes only two run-of-river hydropower projects aggregating to 1590 MW.
v. Two stage implementation of DBDP with an installed capacity of 4500 MW is now contemplated over a
period of 10 years.
vi. Fifty percent DHP capacity (2160 MW) is now being developed as run-of-river facility through Stage I
spanning over 6 years. Balance capacity will be developed under Stage II.
vii. Feasibility Study of Pattan Hydropower Project with installed capacity of 2385 MW has been
completed in 2015.
viii. Feasibility Study of Thakot Hydropower Project with development capability of 3900 MW is now in
hand.
ix. Conditions are now ripe for sizeable hydropower development through the cascade of DBDP and
downstream Dasu, Pattan and Thakot Projects.
x. This cascade development will enable harnessing over 15000 MW hydropower potential of Indus Main
with aggregate annual energy generation of 73,400 GWh. Out of this, about 13000 GWh will be due to
cascading effect of DBDP comprising: 2520 GWh on existing project’s; and 10500 GWh on the
upcoming projects (refer Table 4).
xi. This cascade hydropower development will provide cheap energy varying between 3.6 to 5.2 US
¢ents / kWh against thermal and other renewable options ranging between US ¢ents 8 to 17.
S-11
RECOMMENDATIONS
Now, when Diamer Basha Dam and Dasu Hydropower Projects are being taken
up through staged development, it is recommended that, to meet the medium
term electricity demand through 2030, maximum effort be made to significantly
enhance hydropower portfolio of CPEC. This should at least include: -
i. Second stage developments of both Diamer Basha Dam and Dasu
Hydropower Projects
ii. Downstream cascade Pattan and Thakot Hydropower Projects.