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Combating Natural Hazards

Along The China-Pakistan

Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Dr. Muhammad Jawed Iqbal HoD Transportation Engineering

School of Civil & Environmental Engineering (SCEE) National University of Sciences & Technology (NUST)

SEQUENCE

• Introduction / Background

• Revitalization of Silk Route

• Stages of Development for

CPEC Corridors

• Hazards Along CPEC

• Critical Sections

• Suggested Mitigation Strategy

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Ancient Silk Route

Jamu & Kashmir

Disputed Territory

FLOW OF TRADING GOODS ON ANCIENT SILK ROUTE

To China

• Woolen Goods

• Carpets

• Curtains

• Blankets

• Rugs

• Horses

• Seeds of Lucerne and Grapes

From China

• Silk

• China – snow white vases

• Bowls

• Glasses

• Bronze Ornaments

• Ceramic

• Umbrellas

• Tea

• Rice

Existing Trade of China With Europe

Existing Distance from Central China 17820 Miles Existing Distance from Western China 19132 Miles Long Distance and High Cost 5

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Top 20 Container Terminals and their Throughput (TEUs)

Revitalization of Silk Route Through Pakistan

• From Central China 6910 Miles distance is reduced

• From Western China 9535 Miles distance is reduced (Reduction by 1/2)

• 8 - 10 days Lead time is reduced

Existing GT Road

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Eastern

China

Straights

of Makala

Western

Europe

Suez

Canal Pacific

Ocean

Atlantic

Ocean

Central

China

Immediate Zone of Influence - CPEC

• From Western China 9535 Miles distance is

reduced (Reduction by 1/2)

• 8 - 10 days Lead time is reduced

Western

China

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Ultimate Zone of Influence - CPEC

Central China to New York City, Reduce Distance By

by 906 Km and lead time by 3-4 days as compared

to traditional Panama Canal Route

CHINA-PAKISTAN

ECONOMIC CORRIDOR

(CPEC)

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Stages of Transformation from Transport Corridors to

Economic Corridors

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Stages of Development for CPEC Corridors

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SEISMIC ZONES OF PAKISTAN

BATURA GLACIER

PASU GLACIER

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• Earthquake • Slope Instability (rock fall,Landslides) • Floods • Flash Floods • Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF)

NATURAL HAZARDS ALONG CPEC

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Earthquake

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SEISMIC ZONES OF PAKISTAN

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Landslides

DAMAGES - KKH

Pattan

(257)

Barseen

(307)

Dasu

(297)

Keru

(275)

Kayal

Br(266)

Sazin

(352)

Looter

(326)

Abutment of Baily Br near Kayal

(RD-266) severely damaged

100 M portion washed away 300 m

ahead of Kayal Br

100 M portion of KKH washed away

at RD 275 ahead of Keru on 6 Apr 16

300 M portion of KKH washed away at

same loc on 7 Apr 16 (active slide)

KKH

Damaged Abutment

(RD 266) 100 m Rd Washed Away

(300 m ahead of Kayal Br)

300 m

80 m

Active Slide

30 M portion washed away at RD 298

near Dassu on 4 Apr 16

Thakot

(190)

Pattan

(257)

Batgram

(160)

Barseen

(307)

Raikot

(471)

Danyore

(545)

Sust

(720)

Khunjerab

(806)

To Hassan Abdal (0) Mansehra (94)

Tattap

ani

(468)

Besham

(218)

KKH

141

Dassu

(298)

Ganish

(633)

Jaglot

(501)

Passu

(683)

Looter

(326)

ACTIVE SLIDE AREAS - KKH

Sazin

(352)

Gilgit

(540)

Hasaabad

(624)

Alam Br (1)

Skardu (170)

Dambudas (106)

Shangus (52)

Spr Shaheed

Br (145)

Chilas

(417)

Slides

Slides

Slides

Most

Damaged Portion

1 x Slide per 1 Kms

Dih

(755)

Slides

Slides

Slides Slides

Slides

Slides Slides

Slides

Slides

Slides

Slides

Slides

BOULDERS ON KKH

Near Bunji (RD 485)

Near Shatial (RD 356+500)

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130 m

200 m

Vol of slide mass over 50 Million cum (1.85 Billion cft)

KKH

Spread of the slide along the river - 1.50 to 2.0 km

20 - 30 m

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River bed

350 - 400 m

ATTABAD LANDSLIDE Jan 6, 2010

Scar

N

LAKE TAPPING AT ATTABAD LANDSLIDE

DAM

Gulmat

Shishkat

Aniabad Attabad

FORMATION OF LAKE

Hussaini

August

2010

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WORK DONE WITH CHINESE ASSISTANCE

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Floods

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Flash Floods

Flash Flood in Balochistan Area

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CRITICAL SECTIONS

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LANDSLIDE & EARTH QUAKE PRONE AREA

FLOOD PRONE AREA

FLASH FLOOD HAZARD

MAJOR HAZARDS ALONG CPEC

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BOTTLE NECKS AT CPEC

CRITICAL BEING NO ALTERNATIVES

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COUNTER MEASURE

STRATEGY

Need for Hazard Analysis • Following aspects need in-depth exploration:

– Seismic Hazards/Vulnerability Analysis

– Flood Hazard Analysis

– Landslide Hazard Analysis

– Forestation and Reforestation Analysis

– Snow and Debris Hazard Analysis

– Environmental Aspects Analysis

– Land Erosion Analysis

– Climate Change Impact on Glaciers - GLOF

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Establishment of Centre of Excellence in Earth Sciences and Environment

Following type of data would be required:

– Environment Degradation

– Traffic volume & capacity and traffic flow within and across the international border

– Geotechnical aspects and Geological changes (e.g., landslides, avalanches, etc.)

– Seismic activity profiles

– Satellite Imaging of the area

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– Meteorological/Weather Conditions (Precipitation and rates, climate change, glacier/snow related aspects, etc.)

– Water level, inflow, and outflow of rivers and reservoirs

– Security Concerns

– Disaster Risk Reduction, Mitigation and Management related aspects

– Miscellaneous related aspects, e.g. socio-economic aspects etc.

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• Establishment of Inventory

– There is need to establish an inventory of the data centers located/already available all over Pakistan along the CPEC routes from Khunjerab all the way down to Gwadar.

– It is proposed that a center of excellence should manage this inventory as well as establish an efficient and rapid access to all the data depositories along the path of CPEC.

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• Data Management

– The center may act as a liaison and a source to all the updated data.

– It is suggested that preferably the center of excellence owns a department which keeps all the data up to date, regulates and maintains it.

– A link to all the data depositories and a rapid accessibility to them are suggested to be established at this center.

– At later stage, arrangements could be made to establish a central data depository at the center for quickest access to data.

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• Expertise Requirements for the Center of Excellence

– Meteorologists

– Geological experts

– Civil Engineers (Transportation, Geotechnical, Hydrological, Structural Engineers, etc.)

– GIS experts

– Environmental Engineers

– Disaster Management experts

– Miscellaneous related fields experts

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GLIMPSES OF STUDIES CARRIED OUT AT SCEE, NUST

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Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of Rawalakot

Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Zara Hassan and Javed Iqbal

Objectives:

The aim of the study was to produce

landslide susceptibility maps based on GIS

modeling and to conduct field surveys to get

the local community’s point of view about the

landslides.

Findings: The results showed 63% of the total

area of Rawalakot lies in the highly

susceptible zone.

Study Area

Debris flow and Rock fall Mitigation Measures

• The RAMMS model assist practitioners and researchers to simulate these gravitationally-driven natural hazards within one single software environment.

• The software includes four different process modules to predict

• (1) snow avalanches, (2) debris flows,

• (3) hillslope debris flows and (4) falling rocks.

MODELING AND SIMULATION OF GLACIER

AVALANCHE: A CASE STUDY OF GAYARI SECTOR

GLACIERS HAZARDS ASSESSMENT

AHSAN MAHBOOB AND JAVED IQBAL

PARAMETER MODEL OUTPUT VLAUES

Height (max) 45 (m)

Volume (Cal) 3814486(m3)

Velocity (max) 74(m/s)

Pressure (max) 5074(kPa)

Objectives:

1.Model and simulate the Gayari sector

glacier avalanche incident in terms of height,

extent, velocity, pressure and momentum,

2.Generate hazard risk assessment of

possible other glacier avalanches in the

Saltoro Valley through modeling & simulation

and

3.Suitability analysis of current military camp

sites and recommendation of new safe

camps sites locations in the Saltoro valley

Velocity (m/s) Pressure (kPa)

Momentum (m2/s) Debris Height (m)

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THANK YOU

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCES & TECHNOLOGY

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Stages of Transformation from Transport Corridors to Economic Corridors

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DAMAGES / REHAB & RESTORATION WORKS

KHH

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300 M RD WASHED AWAY NEAR DASSU

Active Slide

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GLOF ALONG KKH

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GLOF

BATURA GLACIER

PASU GLACIER

Thakot

(190)

Pattan

(257)

Batgram

(160)

Barseen

(307)

Raikot

(471)

Danyore

(545)

Sust

(720)

Khunjerab

(806)

To Hassan Abdal (0) Mansehra (94)

Tattap

ani

(468)

Besham

(218)

KKH

141

Dassu

(298)

Ganish

(633)

Jaglot

(501)

Passu

(683)

Looter

(326)

KKH

Sazin

(352)

Gilgit

(540)

Sikandarabad

(593)

Alam Br (1)

Skardu (170)

Dambudas (106)

Shangus (52)

Spr Shaheed

Br (145)

Chilas

(417)

Ansar Camp (40)

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Thakot

(190)

Pattan

(257)

Batgram

(160)

Barseen

(307)

Raikot

(471)

Danyore

(545)

Sust

(720)

Khunjerab

(806)

To Hassan Abdal (0) Mansehra (94)

Tattap

ani

(468)

Besham

(218)

KKH

141

Dassu

(298)

Ganish

(633)

Jaglot

(501)

Passu

(683)

Looter

(326)

ACTIVE SLIDE AREAS - KKH

Sazin

(352)

Gilgit

(540)

Hasaabad

(624)

Alam Br (1)

Skardu (170)

Dambudas (106)

Shangus (52)

Spr Shaheed

Br (145)

Chilas

(417)

Slides

Slides

Slides

Most

Damaged Portion

1 x Slide per 1 Kms

Dih

(755)

Slides

Slides

Slides Slides

Slides

Slides Slides

Slides

Slides

Slides

Slides

Slides