P R I N C E

A S A P R A C A N A LY S I SU.S. VISITU.S. VISIT

MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN'S

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THE AGENDAON

• Vision 2030• Diversification and Privatization• Attracting American Investors

• Combatting ISIS• Sharing Intelligence• Muslim Coalition

• Syria• Yemen• Iran

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A Prince's Outreach

Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and President Barack Obama in Riyadh, April 2016.

Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman is set to make another visit to

the United States, where he is reportedly meeting with officials in Washington DC, then

heading over to New York and Los Angeles to meet with investors and corporate figures.

The visit comes in the middle of a strain in the Saudi-U.S. relationship, a chaotic war in

Yemen, Iranian intervention and a prolonged slump in oil prices. The prince has previously

met with President Obama in the White House on May 2015, and again on April 2016

when Obama was in Riyadh for the Gulf Cooperation Council Summit.

Over the past few months, Saudi Arabia has been subject to a relentless media campaign

that aims to undermine its public image both locally and internationally. Central to this

campaign is a sustained attempt to link the Kingdom to the events of 911/, regularly

promoting the passing of a bill that will allow the families of victims to sue the Saudi

government for damages, citing the now infamous 28 redacted pages from the 911/

commission report as substantial evidence. A charge that Riyadh has strongly denied, it

called for and encouraged the release of the 28 pages ever since 2001. In a recent interview

for Al-Arabiya, CIA chief John Brennan said: “I think the 28 pages will be published and

I support their publication and everyone will see the evidence that the Saudi government

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had nothing to do with it, It was found later, according to the results of the report, that there

was no link between the Saudi government as a state or as an institution or even senior Saudi

officials to the Sept. 11 attacks.”

Saudi Arabia has publicly expressed its frustration with the Obama administration with

regards to American policy in Syria and Iraq. The Saudis feel that America is creating a

vacuum in the region that is being filled by the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is now publicly

admitting to the presence of general Qassem Suleimani on sovereign Arab land, who currently

leads Iraqi militia fighters known as the “Popular Mobilization Forces”. These militias were

condemned by the coalition of Arab tribes in Iraq for its overt sectarianism and unabashed

use of force. With videos surfacing on social media of Iraqi militia fighters torturing and

maiming civilians escaping ISIS in cities like Tikrit and Fallujah, terror financiers have been

compelled to capitalize on this display of sectarianism to raise funds under the questionable

umbrella of “aiding our persecuted Sunni brothers and sisters in Fallujah”.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter with Prince Mohammed Bin Salman at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Feb. 11, 2016

On Security

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The Saudi Ministry of Interior recently warned its citizens against donating money to

unlicensed groups or individuals and announced that it will enforce the terror financing

law as it did in past events. Regarding Syria, the Saudis feel that the Geneva talks

must proceed in order to produce a tangible outcome that will end the 5-year conflict.

Meanwhile, the Iranians and the Russians continue their unconditional support for

the Assad regime, which is now responsible for more than 400.000 deaths, 12 million

displaced, and many imprisoned, starved, tortured, barrel bombed or chemically

attacked.

As for Yemen, peace talks sponsored by the United Nations in Kuwait are underway,

as the Houthi rebels and the internationally recognized Yemeni government are still

negotiating a political settlement to the Yemeni crisis. Meanwhile, the Arab coalition

set its sights on AQAP, and considered fighting the group as a priority, pounding their

stronghold Al-Mukalla and conducting special ops by Saudi and UAE forces resulting

in the killing of as much as 800 AQAP members in the last 3 months of the year-long

war.

The Saudi led Arab Coalition was also recently removed from a UN secretariat report

on violating Children's rights. After much controversy, Saudi Ambassador to the United

Nations Abdullah al-Mouallimi said the removal was “irreversible and unconditional”.

On the agenda will likely be the common goal of defeating ISIS. Prince Mohammed

leads a 35 Muslim nation military coalition to defeat terrorism, with the young prince

describing terrorism as “a disease in the body of Islamic Nations”. He created a new

mandate that simply concludes: “fighting terrorism in Islamic countries should be done

by Islamic countries.”

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Akhi Pillalamarri, writer for The National Interest, told SAPRAC that “the Deputy Crown

Prince will likely focus on specific issues, especially Yemen and Syria, but may also raise

larger concerns and questions about future American intentions regarding its role as a

firm security provider in the Gulf region, especially from threats emanating from Iran.”

He anticipated that the prince “will request that the US do more in Syria against both

ISIS and the Assad government, but this is more of a ritual than a process that is expected

to yield a change in US policy in Syria, which has been relatively constant over the past

few months. Nonetheless, both the US and Saudi Arabia are likely to agree to the need to

continue to fight and defeat ISIS.”

Despite many differences with the Obama administration, Saudi officials are keen on

cooperating with the current and upcoming administration to put an end to current

friction between the two countries. Prince Mohammed comes to Washington not only for

diplomacy but more importantly, for business.

Dr. Thomas Mattair, Executive Director of the Middle East Policy Council, told SAPRAC

that the prince “is a driving force behind much of the Kingdom’s domestic reform plans, its

assertive regional policies, and its defense planning. During his meetings in the USA, he

can rightly point out that the Kingdom’s economic reform plans – Saudi Vision 2030 and

the National Transformation Plan -- offer significant trade and investment opportunities

for American corporations, that the Kingdom and the United States have serious common

interests in shaping the outcomes of regional conflicts, and that the solid bilateral security

partnership is mutually beneficial. All of this provides an opportunity for the United States

to strengthen further this very important decades-old American-Saudi partnership.”

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On Economy

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The visit comes at a pivotal moment for the Saudi

economy, as it is headed for its most significant

transformation in recent history, including sweeping

financial reforms, privatization and diversification.

This transformation was outlined with the recently

announced Vision 2030, which aims to wean the

economy off of its dependency on oil. It includes an

IPO for Aramco (ranging from 1% to 5%), which is

poised to be the world's largest, as well as creating

a path towards a $2 trillion sovereign fund. The

IPO has been described as the “biggest fee event

in Wall Street history” by The Wall Street Journal.

Saudi Aramco is estimated to be worth as much

as all publicly traded oil companies in the world.

The company is reportedly already attracting

many American corporations and bankers to its

headquarters in Dhahran.

American companies historically enjoyed secure

access to the Saudi Arabian market. Saudi Aramco

was originally created by a merger of American

oil companies SoCal, Texaco, and Exxon, keeping

the door open to American businesses and

attracting corporations like General Electric, which

recently announced its own plans for Vision 2030,

partnering with multiple Saudi firms on digital

manufacturing, aviation, energy, marine industry,

oil and gas manufacturing, and gas turbines.

Fahad Nazer, senior political analyst at JTG, told

SAPRAC that the prince had previously “met

with several heads of American companies and in

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essence gave them a preview of what is now known as “Vision 2030.” “While Saudi economic

planners will encourage foreign investors from around the globe, the fact that Prince Mohammed

spoke to CEOs of American companies as early as he did suggests that the long record of success

of American companies in the kingdom has created a level of comfort and trust between Saudi

and American businesses that has helped sustain bilateral relations over the past seven decades.

That aspect of the relationship appears poised to not only continue but to expand.”

More recently, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (SPI) announced the largest ever investment

in Uber with a reported $3.5 billion. The investment exhibits the main goal of the SPI, which is

to facilitate non-oil related growth, and to help the economy diversify, which in turn leaves many

to speculate on where the SPI might invest next. Vision 2030 included plans for the tourism

industry, arts and museums, civil aviation, transportation and most importantly, technology. In

the future, the Saudi Public Investment Fund might make significant purchases in a wide array

of business ventures and capitals.

This visit is expected to mend any remaining strain between the two nations by promoting broader

regional cooperation and stronger bilateral relations. More importantly, it will attract American

investors to come to the Kingdom and contribute to the economy’s diversification, moving the

nation one step closer to Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s vision of a financially stable, socially

dynamic and economically robust Saudi Arabia.

DISCLAIMER:

THE ANALYSIS PREPARED BY SAPRAC IN THIS ARTICLE IS INDEPENDENT AND DOES NOT REFLECT THE VIEW ORPOSITION OF THE GOVERNMENT OF SAUDI ARABIA.

< http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-qaeda-idUSKCN0XL0BM>

<http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-aramco-ipo-wall-streets-white-whale-1465464606>

<http://www.nytimes.com/201602/06//technology/uber-investment-saudi-arabia.html?_r=0 >

<http://www.ge.com/sa/b2b >

<http://gulfbusiness.com/uae-saudi-arabia-among-worlds-attractive-retail-markets/#.V13LcLt97IW >

<http://vision2030.gov.sa/en >

<http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/features/201626/04//Full-text-of-Saudi-Arabia-s-Vision-2030.html >

<http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/201618/04//bashar-al-assads-war-crimes-exposed>

<http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/240520164 >

<https://www.moi.gov.sa>

<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/un-removes-saudi-coalition-from-blacklist_us_5755e2c0e4b0ca5c7b4fd030>

<http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/201614/05//Saudi-FM-Fighting-al-Qaeda-a-priority-in-Yemen.html>

<http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/features/201612/06//Full-transcript-of-Al-Arabiya-s-interview-with-CIA-chief-John-Brennan.html>

<http://www.alarabiya.net/>

<http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-security-idUSKBN0TX2PG20151215>

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Written by: Yousef Al-Naimi

Designed by: Mahmoud Megahed

References:

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