Current market value

= HKD 3 millions

Current market value

= HKD 2 millions

Why is there is a difference?

Actually, it is about the concept of the capital value.

In Economics, according to Irving Fisher, anything that can generate services or income over time is regarded as

capital, e.g. land, intelligence, education, good look, good health etc.

Yale economist

1867-1947

Do you think taxi is a kind of capital?

YES!!^^ Because taxi can generate services or income over a period of time!! ^^

How to determine the value of capital?

We call the value of a capital the present value of all the future income generated over the span of life of asset.

Mathematically, it can be expressed in terms of the following formula.

Where

I = future income

r% = interest rate reflecting relevant risk

n = number of years

To calculate the current market value of both urban and NT taxi, is to calculate their relevant present value ?

Yes!! Of course!!

So, what may affect the present value of taxi?

Where

I = future income

r% = interest rate reflecting relevant risk

n = number of years

1. Size of the future income

-higher the future income, higher the PV or vice versa

2. Length of income stream

-longer the stream, higher the PV or vice versa

3. Interest Rate

-higher the r%, higher the PV or vice versa

Applying the concept of present value to taxi in Hong Kong:

Observation:

-Eternal Ownership ( 永久年期 )of taxi-licence for both kind of taxi

What does it mean??

That means the length of the income stream are the same!! So this factor is not affecting the market value of taxi!!

In HK, the interest rate is the same everywhere at the same time, so the discounting rate of interest is similar for both taxi.

So, what makes the difference between the market value of urban taxi-licence and New Territories taxi-licence?

Urban taxi-licence NT taxi-licence

First 2 kms First 2 kms $15$15 $12.5$12.5

Every 0.2 km Every 0.2 km thereafter thereafter

$1.4$1.4 $1.2$1.2

Every period of 1 Every period of 1 minute waiting time minute waiting time

$1.4$1.4 $1.2$1.2

Taxi Fare (in HKD $) :

O…the fare of urban taxi is higher than that of NT taxi! So, the future income should be higher for urban taxi!!

Any more for higher market value of urban taxi-licence?Service Area :

The AirportThe Airport

Hong Kong DisneylandHong Kong Disneyland

New TerritoriesNew Territories

KowloonKowloon PeninsulaPeninsula

Hong Kong IslandHong Kong Island

NT taxiNT taxiUrban taxiUrban taxi

The AirportThe Airport

Hong Kong DisneylandHong Kong Disneyland

New TerritoriesNew Territories

KowloonKowloon PeninsulaPeninsula

Hong Kong IslandHong Kong Island

NT taxiNT taxiUrban taxiUrban taxi

Urban taxis have wider area of service coverage

than NT taxis! So they have a higher possibility to get

customers!

To conclude the case……1. Size of the future income

-higher the future income, higher the PV or vice versa

2. Length of income stream

-longer the stream, higher the PV or vice versa

3. Interest Rate

-higher the r%, higher the PV or vice versa

Urban taxis (when compared to NT taxi)

-higher taxi fare charged + wider service area coverage

-higher future income can be generated

-higher PV

-higher current market value

How about Lantau taxi?

So, I think it is quite easy for us to estimate the market value for Lantau taxi-licence!

Profile :

-first 2 kms : $12

-every 0.2 km thereafter :$1.2

-every period of 1 minute waiting time :$1.2

-service area coverage: Lantau Island, the Airport, Hong Kong Disneyland

Anymore thing that the concept of present value may apply?

Stock price of Hang Seng Bank vs. DBS, which meant to be higher?

Ans.

-Hang Seng Bank

-larger scale of bank + higher future income

-higher PV

-higher stock price

Why child slaves meant to have a higher selling price?

Ans.

-younger age

-longer life expectancy

-longer income stream

-higher PV

-higher selling price

Who is expected to earn more?

八兩金Andy Lau

Ans.

-Andy Lau

-better appearance

-easier to become popular among fans

-higher income (more ads, more selling of autographs, more job opportunities)

-higher PV