35
A new era of growth for KGHM – a global player on the metals market 6 March 2012

Prezentacja Inwestorska En

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

....

Citation preview

A new era of growth for KGHM –a global player on the metals

market

6 March 2012

1

Disclaimer

The data and information provided by this presentation may not be construed as representing acomprehensive financial analysis nor a commercial offer by the Company, and are only provided forinformational purposes. The activities and financial condition of KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. have beenpresented in current and periodic reports which are available on the Company’s corporate website,www.kghm.pl. All of the data presented are based on sources which the Company considers, but cannotguarantee, to be accurate and reliable. The Company reserves the right to alter the data and informationcontained herein at any time, without prior announcement.This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. These statements may not be construedas representing a forecast or projection of Company results, or as an indication of future Companyresults. The expectations and assumptions of the Management Board are based on the currentknowledge, awareness or opinions of the Management Board of the Company, and are subject to arange of factors which may cause the actual results achieved to be materially different from those setforth in this document.KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. bears no responsibility whatsoever related to the use of this presentation byoutside parties. This presentation was prepared solely for informational purposes, and does notconstitute in any form whatever an offer to purchase or sell, nor to engage in any investment-relatedactivities, involving the securities or associated financial instruments of the Company, nor to participatein any commercial activity.

KGHM is a global player on the non-ferrous metals market

2* TPM – precious metals

KGHM mining projectsKGHM minesSmelters

PolandPolkowice-Sieroszowice mine (Cu, Ag)Lubin mine (Cu, Ag)Rudna mine (Cu, Ag)Głogów smelterLegnica smelterExploration in the region

GreenlandMalmbjerg (Mo)

NiemcyWeisswasser (Cu, Ag)

CanadaMcCreedy (Cu, Ni, TPM*)Morrison (Cu, Ni, TPM)Podolsky (Cu, Ni, TPM)Victoria (Cu, Ni, TPM)

ChileFranke (Cu)Sierra Gorda (Cu, Mo, Au)

USARobinson (Cu, Au, Mo)Carlota (Cu)

CanadaAfton-Ajax (Cu, Au)

Agenda

3

• Transaction benefits

• Information about the transaction

• KGHM as a global player on the non-ferrous metals market

• Creating value through integration

KGHM will benefit from the transaction in a number of ways

4

• Significant increase in the resource base given the good prospects on the copper market (mainly the world-class Sierra Gorda deposit)

• Immediate production boost with high metals prices• Further production boost potential from development projects

Production boost1

• Access to new mining knowledge (open-pit mines and other deep mining technologies)• Deeper knowledge of mining projects in new regions• Best practice sharing (e.g. experience in ore processing)

Knowledge and skills4

• Attractive Quadra FNX price given the good prospects on the copper market • Leveraging KGHM’s solid financial standingTakeover

moment5

• Reduction in average production costs (by approx. 20% in 2018)• Improvement in Company’s financial stability during downturns on the copper marketCost reduction2

• Reduction of KGHM’s operational risk following geographic, currency and product diversification

• Direct access to key global resources • Increase in metals production other than copper and silver (gold, nickel, palladium,

platinum, molybdenum)

Diversification 3

KGHM consistently follows its growth strategy

5

6

Following the transaction, KGHM will significantly increase its resource base and production

Source: Production - CRU Copper Quarterly Industry and Market Outlook, Oct. 2011; Resources – Brook Hunt (A Wood Mackenzie Company); KGHM reports

Resource base

6

4

QUX 2010 8.2

Antofagasta 8.9

KGHM + QUX 2010* 37.5

Freeport 55.8

Southern Copper 58.2

Codelco 93.2

RAO Norilsk 9.1

Rio Tinto 17.0

Xstrata 18.1

KGHM 2010* 29.3

Anglo American 31.6

BHP Billiton 35.2

Copper content, in million tons

* Excluding Afton-Ajax project where KGHM has a 51% stake in 1.3 M tonnes of Cu resources

8

Mined copper production

10

7

101

425

488

508

526

589

635

645

700

907Xstrata

BHP Billiton 1,134

Freeport 1,441

Codelco 1,757

Glencore

KGHM + QUX 2010

Grupo Mexico

KGHM + QUX 2018E

Anglo American

Rio Tinto

QUX 2010

KGHM 2010

Southern Copper

In thousand tons, 2010

7

KGHM 2018 (estimate)

-21%

KGHM+QUX 2018(estimate)

The transaction will reduce average operational costs

Estimated production cost C1

Source: KGHM outlook (including impact from by-product metals)

Reduction by >20%

Agenda

8

• Transaction benefits

• Information about the transaction

• KGHM as a global player on the non-ferrous metals market

• Value creation through integration

9

Transaction structure and value

* At the exchange rate of Mar. 5, 2012

Type of transaction

• Friendly takeover through Plan of Arrangement• Following acquisition by KGHM, Quadra FNX will be de-listed from Toronto

stock exchange

Share • 100% KGHM Polska Miedź S.A.• CAD 15.00 per share• Number of shares – 193.3 million

Transaction value

• 2.90 B CAD • 2.92* B USD • 9.15* B PLN

Transaction financing

• Internal funds of KGHM Polska Miedź S.A.

For Quadra FNX stake KGHM paid ~20% below market consensus

10

* Value of company assets less liabilities. A popular company value indicator** Offer aggressiveness indicator in takeover transactions. Price paid for estimated company value. The higher the indicator, the more expensive

the purchaseSource: Companies, Bloomberg, Wall Street Research, Metals Economics Group, Mergermarket, BNP

MedianAverage

Average – consensus Average – Datastream

Transactions on the metals market

30.09.201120.07.201105.06.201115.06.201125.04.201115.11.201022.10.201017.09.201006.04.201001.03.201028.12.200904.02.200906.06.200806.01.200806.12.200729.10.200719.03.200715.08.200611.08.200617.05.200615.03.200614.03.200614.02.2006

Announce-ment date06.12.2011

Anvil MiningMeridian Minerals LimitedMetorexBreakwater ResourcesEquinox MineralsFarallon MiningGlobestar Mining CorpContinental Minerals CorpCrowflight Minerals Chariot Resources Corriente Resources Frontera Copper Corp.Petaquilla Copper Tyler Resources Northern Peru Copper Jubilee MinesWolfden ResourcesEquatorialIncoFalconbridgeWeda BayRegalito CopperTethyan

Target Quadra FNX

CanadaAustraliaRPACanadaAustraliaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaAustraliaCanadaAustraliaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaAustralia

Listed Canada

Minmetals ResourcesNorthwest NonFerrousJinchuan GroupNystarBarrick GoldNyrstarPerilyaJinchuan GroupJinchuan Group China Sci-Tech Holdings Tongling Southern CopperInmet Mining Jinchuan Group Jiangxi Copper XstrataZinifexAntofagastaCVRDXstrataErametPan Pacific CopperAntofagasta/Barrick

Buyer KGHM Polska Miedź

1,27576

965814

6,084386158424166501968nm240267nm

1,362232nm

7,30411,305

475nm101

NAV*mln USD

36001.0x1.0x1.2x0.8x1.2x1.1x1.2x1.0x0.9xnm0.7xna

1.4x0.8xna

2.1x1.3xna

2.4x1.9x0.5xna

1.4x1.2x1.1x

P/NAV**0.79x

Analyst recommendations on QUX share price before transaction annoucement (in CAD)

Broker CormarkTD NewcrestDesjardins MacquarieRBCCredit SuisseStifel NicolausSalman PartnersUBSBofACanaccordGMPBMOParadigm CapitalCIBC

RecommendationBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuySellBuyBuyBuyBuyBuy

Valuation18.018.018.517.019.020.016.026.815.010.017.019.920.022.025.5

18.820.8

Report date03.11.201101.11.201131.10.201128.10.201128.10.201124.10.201119.10.201117.10.201117.10.201116.10.201114.10.201108.09.201129.08.201115.08.201110.08.2011

191 500 000 * 18.8 = 3 600 200 000

Consensus priceNo. of shares

11

On American markets the company will operate under KGHM International brand

Agenda

12

• Transaction benefits

• Information about the transaction

• KGHM as a global player on the non-ferrous metals market

• Creating value through integration

13

KGHM is one of the world’s largest metals producersCopper producers’ rankingIn thousand tons, 2010

Silver producers’ ranking

In million ounces, 2010

Rhenium producers’ ranking

In tons, estimate, 2011

Source: CRU Copper Quarterly Industry and Market Outlook, Oct. 2011

Source: GFMS World Silver Survey 2011

Source: „Rhenium: Supply - Demand Stats” by Anthony Lipmann of Lipmann Walton & Co Ltd and Courtesy of MMTA (The Minor Metals Trade Association, London); KGHM Ecoren estimate

Sumimoto Corp. 14

Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. 17

JSC Polymetal 17

Hochschild Mining 18

Cia Minera Volcan 20

Goldcorp Inc. 23

Pan American Silver Corp. 24

KGHM 37

Fresnillo plc. 39

BHP Billiton 47

Southern Copper 488

Glencore 508

KGHM + QUX 526

Grupo Mexico 589

Anglo American 645

Rio Tinto 700

Xstrata 907

BHP Billiton 1,134

Freeport 1,441

Codelco 1,757

Jangxi Copper 3.0

Zhezkazganredmet ~3.0

KGHM 5.0

Climax Molybdenum (Freeport McMoRan) 7.0

Molybdenos y Metales (Molymet) 28.0

Cu Ag Re

8

3

3

14

KGHM will become a multimetal company through acquisitionProduction volume

* Including KGHM International N.c. – no significant change** Payable copper from own mines*** Nickel contained in nickel sulphate

~Selenium (tons) 85 B.z. • Glass 40%; chemicals and pigments 20%; metallurgy 15%; agriculture 15%; solar panels 10%

PGM~Sulphuric acid (ths tons) 636 N.c. • Production of other acids, pigments, artificial fibers, explosives,

fertilizers

Other

Ren (tons)

Copper

Molibdenium

Gold

Copper** (ths tons) 410 1.5 x• Electric power 35%; pipes, heating 13%; cooling 11%;

automotive 9%; telecommunications 5%; industrial plant machinery 4%; electronics 3%; other 20%

Nickel (ths tons) 0.6*** 23 x • Stainless steel 60%; aluminum alloys 7%; batteries 7%; plating 14%

~Lead (ths tons) 25 N.c. • Car battery plates, batteries; cables, pipes; ammunition; ballasts; paints

Molibdenium Newmetal • Iron, steel, superalloys 81%

~Silver (k oz) 41,000 • Electronics 27%; jewelry 25%; photography 13%; coins and medals 11%; other industrial 25%

Gold (k oz) 23 8 x • Jewelry 43%; investments 26%; electronics 14%; medicine 13%; other 5%

Platynium, palladium(k oz) 3 16 x • Catalysts (automotive) 47%; electronics 16.5%; jewelry 10.5%;

dentistry 4%

Industrial

Precious

KGHMin 2011

Increase to 2018*Metal Usage (industry)

5 • Superalloys (used to produce jet engine parts) and as a catalyst(in petroleum production)~ N.c.

N.c.~

N.c.

KGHM is a global player on the non-ferrous metals market

15* TPM – precious metals

KGHM mining projectsKGHM minesSmelters

PolandPolkowice-Sieroszowice mine (Cu, Ag)Lubin mine (Cu, Ag)Rudna mine (Cu, Ag)Głogów smelterLegnica smelterExploration in the region

GreenlandMalmbjerg (Mo)

NiemcyWeisswasser (Cu, Ag)

CanadaMcCreedy (Cu, Ni, TPM*)Morrison (Cu, Ni, TPM)Podolsky (Cu, Ni, TPM)Victoria (Cu, Ni, TPM)

ChileFranke (Cu)Sierra Gorda (Cu, Mo, Au)

USARobinson (Cu, Au, Mo)Carlota (Cu)

CanadaAfton-Ajax (Cu, Au)

KGHM project portfolio ensures development of the current production base

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Total resourcesExploration projects**Technical/financial studyMines in constructionMine with life of mine <=5 yrs

Mines with life of mine >5 yrs

Cu

Cu equivalent

Resources*, million tons

* For KGHM International mines – total Measured, Indicated, Inferred resources. For KGHM Polska Miedź – balanced geological resources** Planned additional exploration in new locations 16

Głogów Głęboki

Sierra Gorda (55%)

Robinson

KGHM mines inPoland

MorrisonFranke McCreedy

Podolsky

Carlota

Afton-AjaxMalmbjerg

VictoriaWartowice

KirkwoodSzklary

Resources under

development

Resources in

production

17

* Quadra FNX Board’s decision: halt production in Podolsky, close CarlotaSource: KGHM Polska Miedź S.A., Quadra FNX (for Quadra FNX: data on metal sales)Prices used in Cu equivalent calculation: 4.00 USD/lb Cu, 11.68 USD/lb Ni, 1,572USD/oz Au, 1,732 USD/oz Pt, 704 USD/oz Pd

KGHM operates 6 underground and 3 open pit minesThousand tons of paid copper, 2011 Cu

Cu equivalent

Underground mines

Lubin

Polkowice-Sieroszowice

Rudna

CuAg410

PolandRobinson

Carlota*

Franke

CuAuMo43 47

Cu11 11

Cu15 15

Podolsky*

McCreedy West

Morrison

17 28

548

Open pit mines

2 8 CuNiAuPdPt

11 16 CuNiAuPdPt

CuNiAuPdPt

Copper production will grow by 25% in 2018

18* Estimated forecast

410 448

+25%

Current KGHM assets

KGHM International mines

2018*

635

187

2011

509

100

CuThousand tons of paid copper

19

KGHM has 2 advanced mine construction projects

SIERRA GORDA GŁOGÓW GŁĘBOKI PRZEMYSŁOWY

StatusSecured financingStarted construction works (first production planned for 2014)

Mine type Open pit

Ownership 55% KGHM International, 45% Sumitomo

StatusPreparation to drill GG-1 ventilation shaft; ongoing work on slopes connected to Rudna mine structure Rudna

Mine type Underground

Ownership 100% KGHM

Cu MoAu Cu Ag

Resources ~1,274.8 million t @ 0.39% Cu, 0.024% Mo Resources ~292 million t @ 2.4% Cu, 78.7 g/t Ag

20

The most important KGHM International project– Sierra Gorda is advancing on time, on budget

• Mine equipment is being delivered, e.g.,– Trucks have been delivered– Orders for machines with long delivery time have

been placed• Engineering works on salt water pipeline have begun• R.O. (reverse osmosis) plant and waste treatment

plant are in advanced construction

KGHM’s portfolio includes 3 projects nearing construction phase

VICTORIAAFTON-AJAX

Cu PtAuNiCu Au

MALMBJERG

Status Ongoing feasibility study Status Ongoing feasibility studyCompleted Banking Feasibility Study, possible to acquire further 29% shares

Status

Mine type Underground Mine type Open pitOpen pitMine type

Ownership 100% KGHM International* Ownership 98.2% KGHM International51% KGHM, 49% Abacus MiningOwnership

Resources ~14.5 million t @ 2.5% Cu, 2.5% Ni, 7.6g/t TPM** Resources 216.9 Mt @ 0.198% Mo~ 512 million t @ 0.31% Cu,

0.19 g/t AuResources

Mo

21* Vale has buyback option for 51% stake in the project**TPM – precious metals

Germany• Weisswasser

(Cu, Ag)

Poland• Wartowice

(Cu, Ag)

Poland• Szklary (Ni)

Poland• Gaworzyce-

Radwanice(Cu, Ag)

Canada• Kirkwood (Cu, Ni)• Falconbridge

Footwall• Foy

Portfolio of exploration projects will ensure further growth for KGHM*

Germany Poland Canada

22* Plus additional exploration potential in currently active mines

KGHM has significant potential to increase its valuation

Anglo American PLCBHP BillitonFreeport McMoranNorilsk NickelRio Tinto PLCTeckVedanta ResourcesXstrata PLCZijinAntofagasta PLCBolidenCapstoneFirst Quantum Minerals LtdGrupo MexicoHudbayInmet Mining Corp KazakhmysLundin Mining CorpOz MineralsSouthern Copper CorpKGHMPeer group medianKGHM discount vs. peer group

5.35.64.34.64.95.05.45.8

11.25.75.45.47.75.34.36.44.87.05.17.61.95.4

65%

8.39.19.06.3

18.19.6

13.19.8

12.416.09.4

15.218.510.623.716.87.6

15.513.312.03.2

15.279%

EV/ EBITDA 12 M* P/E 12 M*

* EBITDA for the past 12 months (based on published data); EV as of 23.02.2012

P/E 2011• On average, precious metal producers are valued 2-3 times higher than copper producers

• KGHM is the 3rd largest silver producer worldwide

Source: Bloomberg, as of 23.02.2012; KGHM Polska Miedź S.A.

8,9 2.1 9.6 3.7 24.8 1.3 4.8 20.7 4.6 3.0 11.128.3Capitalization (USD billion)

First Quantum

7.7

Southern C

opper

7.6

Lundin

7.0

Inmet

6.4

Antofagasta P

LC

5.7

Boliden

5.4

Capstone

5.4

Grupo M

exico

5.3

Oz M

inerals

5.1K

azakhmys

4.8H

udbay4.3

KG

HM

1.9

EV/ EBITDA 12M

23

KGHM’s resource base confirms the company’s significant value growth potential

24

EV/Resources*

Oz Minerals

1.08

Antofa-gasta PLC

0.65

Boliden

0.61

Kazakh-mys

0.57

First QuantumFQM

0.50

Lundin Mining

0.31

Capstone

0.24

Grupo Mexico

0.19

Hudbay

0.19

KGHM**

0.07

USD/lbs of Cu equivalent

Source: Bloomberg, Brook Hunt, as of 23.02.2012; data published by KGHM

* Reserves** Incl. KGHM InternationalNote: Capstone Mining – excl. magnetite; Hudbay Minerals – incl. Constancia; Lundin Mining - incl. Galmoy and Aguablanca; New Boliden – incl. Tara; Kazakhmys – excl.

Kazakhmys Gold and Kazakhmys Coal; First Quantum - excl. Congo assets; Gruppo Mexico – incl. 80% share in Southern Copper

• KGHM** has the 4th largest copper resources worldwide

KGHM will continue to focus on shareholder value creation

25

Agenda

26

• Transaction benefits

• Information about the transaction

• KGHM as a global player on the non-ferrous metals market

• Creating value through integration

Integration and value creation have been well prepared

First 100 daysDay 1

Build KGHM International value and share best practices

2 Confirm value creation plan and joint Group strategy

1 Prepare integration

3

27

2828

DescriptionObjective

Key objectives

▪ Ensure positive impact of integration activities on KGHM International’s operations

▪ Quickly implement retention program for key employees▪ Identify key risks and mitigation activities early▪ Confirm operational plans and focus on their uninterrupted implementation

Ensure business continuity

▪ Obtain full transparency of operations in KGHM International▪ Implement controls in key areas, e.g., cash management, purchasing, etc.▪ Define management information flows

Ensure appropriate control

▪ Execute business objectives▪ Intensify operational improvements▪ Capture synergies▪ Share best practices

Ensure value creation

KGHM has defined 3 key objectives for the integration process

Value creation teams are already operational in Poland, Canada and US

Value creation team in

Canada and US

Value creation team in Poland

18 task groups within the integration teams cover all key areas, e.g.,

Tight cooperation

2929

Production

Capex

Sales and hedging Finance

PurchasingExploration projects

IT

Health and safety

EnvironmentSierra Gorda project

Accounting and tax

HR

3030

KGHM will have majority in KGHM International’s Board of Directors and will appoint 2 members of Executive CommitteeNumber of KGHM employees assigned to KGHM International Description

• 6 KGHM representatives among 9 members of Board of Directors

• 2 KGHM representatives in Executive Committee

• 6 members of value creation teamresponsible for key functional areas

• KGHM specialists supporting operations(e.g. regarding metalurgy and geology)and for best practice sharing

Board of Directors

Specialists

Executive Committee

Value creation team

1

2

3

4

6

2

6

10-15

KGHM International will aim at leading currently developed projects to the production stage

31

Sierra Gorda Victoria Falconbridge Footwall, Malmbjerg, Foy, Kirkwood

Afton – Ajax

• Utilize Quadra FNX’s experience in open-pit mining • Strengthen the position of KGHM Ajax Mining and Quadra Mining FNX vis-à-vis government bodies and business

partners in Canada • Build an investment vehicle in the Americas • Prepare KGHM International for an IPO on the Toronto Exchange

Synergy effects

Value creation

Value creation plan can lead to IPO on the Toronto Stock Exchange

• Increase annual volumes in production assets, incl.

– Robinson – open new walls to achieve more production flexibility

• Extend resources/mine lifecycle in production assets

– Robinson – plan for Liberty Pit (May 2012), later for Ruth Pit West,Ruth Pit East

– Value creation potential for Carlota in connection with Pinto Valley opening

• Intensify development activities at Afton-Ajax• Further development projects (Sierra Gorda, Victoria)

• Further exploration potential at Sierra Gorda (triple the size of exploration area)

• Potential to process oxide ore from Sierra Gorda (potential to use sulphuric acid from KGHM)

• Development of remaining exploration projects (e.g., Kirkwood, Falconbridge Footwall, Foy)

• Synergies in purchasing (e.g., mining machinery)

• Reduce financing costs (as KGHM’s subsidiary)

‘Day 1’ 2014 2015 2016

Potential IPO

32

KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. is a good investment

33

Clearly defined and consistently implemented growth strategy

Fourth largest copper resources globally

Eighth biggest copper producer and third biggest silver producer globally

Portfolio of development (incl. seventh biggest project worldwide) and exploration projects ensuring growth of production base

Clearly defined value creation plan in connection with Quadra FNX

Attractive share valuation vs. industry peers