Presented to: Florida Economic Development Council

SECURING FLORIDA’S FUTURE [email protected] #FL20301

Presented to:Florida Economic Development Council

Presented by:John Kaliski

Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

May 8, 2017


Developing Blueprint for Florida’s Future2017 – Florida Jobs 2030 2016 – From Excuses to Excellence 2016 – Strategic Look at Medical Tourism 2013 – Florida Trade and Logistics Study 2.0 2011 – Immigration and Florida’s Economy 2010 – Florida Trade and Logistics Study 2010 – Closing the Talent Gap 2007 – New Cornerstone Revisited 2006 – Florida Summit on Affordable Living 2003 – New Cornerstone: Foundations for Florida’s Economy into the 21st Century 1999 – Transportation Cornerstone Florida 1997 – International Cornerstone Florida 1994 – No More Excuses: What Business Must Do To Improve Florida’s Schools 1991 – Enterprise Florida: Partnership for a Competitive Economy 1990 – Crossroads: Designing Florida’s Tax Structure 1989 – Enterprise Florida: Growing the Future 1989 – Cornerstone: Foundations for Economic Leadership 1986 – The Role of Privatization in Florida’s Growth

F L 2 0 3 0 @ F L C H A M B E R . C O M # F L 2 0 3 0

“We must plan better for the next 6 million Floridians than we did for the last 6 million”


Pillar Research Consultants

Talent Supply and Education

Innovation and Economic Development

Infrastructure and Growth Leadership

Business Climate and Competitiveness

Civic and Governance Systems & Quality Life and Quality Places


Research Approach

• Where does Florida stand today? • How do we compare to states / nations? • How do we compare to 15 years ago?

• Where Are We?

• What are key drivers of change, uncertainties, risks, and potential disruptors?

• Where Are We Going?

• Where do we want to be in 2030? • How do we measure success?

• Where Do We Want to

Go?• How Do We

Ge There?• What actions are needed to prepare for 2030?


Strong Jobs Recovery from Recession

7

0.95

1.04

1.13

1.21

1.30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Observation Value FloridaUS United States

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Index, 2000:1- 1.0


But Limited Income Gains

8

$0

$12,500

$25,000

$37,500

$50,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

23927.6522699.9122113.822386.122284.5922440.1822322.1623764.1225568.1926297.625969.9325331.5824930.5824749.1124459.1924127.01

4442942918.8841481.5642308.0242649.3441982.5440948.8143654.3345482.545543.4744015.0242739.641405.8441262.5641206.9640939.8

Florida Personal Income Per Capita, $2015

Florida Net Earnings Per Capita, $2015

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. $2015 constant dollars


Where Will We Be in 2030?

9

MichiganPoland Massachusetts VirginiaNigeriaSwedenGeorgiaNorth CarolinaNew JerseyArgentinaOhioSaudi ArabiaSwitzerlandTurkeyNetherlandsPennsylvaniaIllinoisIndonesiaFloridaMexicoSpainRussian FederationAustraliaKorea, Rep.New York CanadaTexasBrazil Italy IndiaFranceCaliforniaUnited KingdomGermanyJapanChinaUnited States

#25 in 2030?

Florida’s economy is the 16th largest in the world today

#10 in 2030?

Source: World Bank, 2015


Globalization

Risks

Drivers of Change

10

InnovationGrowth

Diversity

Urbanization

Nature of Work

Research as of 4/18/2017


Millio

nsMi

llions

Millio

nsMi

llions

10

14

18

21

25

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Growth: How Quickly We Will Grow?

11

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Low Medium High

Florida can expect up to 6 million new residents by 2030


-1,000 0 1,000 2,000

Growth: How Are We Growing?

12

Source: US Census Bureau

Net Domestic Migration Net International Migration Natural Increase Components of Population Change 2010-2016


Diversity: Aging Population

13

over age 65will be

Floridians1 out of every4 1.1 million additional

residents ages 25-44

BUT… nearly

By 2030…

Source: Florida Chamber Foundation. University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research.


More Diverse Population

14

49% of Florida’s

population will be minority race or ethnicity in 2030

1 out of every 5 Floridians

are foreign-born today

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research.


More Diverse Population

15

44% of Florida households

can not afford housing, child care, health care,

transportation and basic needs

Source: ALICE United Way of Florida | University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

2 out of every 5will spend more than30% of income

Floridians

on housing in 2030


Urbanization: Florida’s Development Patterns

16

The Villages

Orlando

Naples

Cape Coral

Crestview/Fort Walton Beach/Destin

5We are home to

of the top25

metro areasfastest growing

in the U.S.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010-2015 population change).

9out of10urban areaslive in

Floridians


0%

50%

All Adults Millennials Gen Xers Baby Boomers War/Silent

Urbanization: Where Do Americans Want to Live?

17

Rural Areas and Small Towns

Source: Urban Land Institute, America in 2015

0%

13%

25%

38%

50%

All Adults Millennials Gen Xers Baby Boomers War/Silent

Medium and Large Cities

Generational Community Preferences

Future

Current

Future

Current


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

FundraisingListings

Revenue

Innovation: Shared Economy +

18


Automation +

19


Billions of C

onnected Devices

1990 1 million

2030 30 billion

Connectivity =

20


Disruption

21

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, January 2017

46% of today’s jobs could be automated

by adapting currently available technologies

Accomodations & food servicesTransport & warehousing

ManufacturingAgriculture

Retail tradeMining

Other servicesConstruction

Wholesale tradeUtilities

Finance & insuranceArts & recreation

Real estateAdministration

InformationHealth & social services

ManagementProfessional services

Education0 20 40 60 80


Nature of Work: Knowledge, Service Jobs Growing

22

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

Thou

sand

s of

Job

s

2015201020052000199519901985

Management and Professional Occupations Production, Construction and Transport Occupations

Sales and Office Occupations Service Occupations

Source: Federal Reserve Bank


Nature of Work: Rise of the “Gig” Economy

23

Source: Internal Revenue Service

Index, 2001=1.0

F L 2 0 3 0 @ F L C H A M B E R . C O M # F L 2 0 3 0Source: USDA, Economic Research Service (2012) 2005$. Percent change 2010-2030.

Globalization: Growing Markets

24

Change in Global Gross Domestic Product 2010 and 2030


Is Global Trade Growth Stalling?

25

Trilli

ons

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Merchandise Exports Merchandise Imports

Source: World Bank, Trade Indicators


Risk: Disaster Preparedness

26

Number of Declared Disasters per Year

0

40

80

120

160

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Source: Federal Emergency Management Administration. Three-year rolling average.


More Frequent and Disruptive Risks

27


What Could the Future Look Like?

28

Growth Sustained long-term gains Slowing in-migration

Diversity Strength in diversity Fragmentation and gaps

Urbanization Return to urban core Exurban and inland growth

Nature of Work

Gig economy, telework Traditional skills and jobs

Innovation Faster, smarter, automated Lagging, not leading, adoption

Globalization Integrated and connected Retrenchment

Risks Prepared and resilient Reactive and disruptive


How Can You Get Involved?

29

• Attend a Town Hall meeting

• Ask for a briefing to your group

• Take the Florida 2030 survey

• Participate in a committee or a caucus

• Share your thoughts – [email protected]

• More information at: flchamber.com/florida-2030/


Florida 2030

FL 2030 @ FL Chamber.com

1,000s of Floridians 6 Pillars 2 Years 1 Plan

30

Documents

Presented to: Florida Economic Development Council