Presentation to NRC Committeeon Genetically Engineered Crops

15 Sept 2014

Glenn Davis StoneProf. of Anthropology and Environmental Studies

India Cotton-Rice Farmer Research2000-present

Nat Science Fdn, Wenner-Gren Fdn, Templeton Fdn, Washington Univ., National Geographic

Spread of Hirsutum hybrid cotton

“Mount Pesticide”

Pesticide Treadmill

Seeds Treadmill

2005 Seed Store Survey:78 brands; 54 <2 yrs old

Hybrid seeds repurchased from marketRapid change in brands

Deceptive marketing

Trialing“Like the adoption of any new technology, people planted [Bt cotton] on smaller acres initially, but the ever-increasing Bollgard plantings demonstrate that the Indian farmer is willing to embrace a technology that delivers consistent benefits in terms of reduced pesticide use and increased income.”

- Ranjana Smetacek, Director of Corporate Affairs for India, Monsanto

2002: 1st box of Bt cotton in Perkevedu village

Impediments to Trialing• Unrecognizability• Hyper-rapid change• Failure of “payoff information” for environmental learning• Over-reliance on social learning when environmental learning is inaccurate/costly;

--> agricultural deskilling

Stone, G. 2007 Agricultural Deskilling and the Spread of Genetically Modified Cotton in Warangal. Current Anthropology 48:67-103.

2002: 1st box of Bt cotton in Perkevedu village

• Seed fads

• Little agro-ecological rationale

• 59% novice plantings

96% of cotton growers in a large village sample bought the same seed

Emergent Patterning in Longitudinal Decision-Making

G.D.Stone, A. Flachs, C. Diepenbrock (2013) Rhythms of the Herd: Long Term Dynamics in Seed Choice by Indian Farmers. Technology in Society, 36:26-38.

Bt adopted Bt adopted

GM seeds were not the original cause of deskilling, but they “may prove to alleviate symptoms [bollworm predation] at the expense of exacerbating the underlying cause [un-trialability from rapid change & unrecognizability]”

Stone, G. 2011 Field versus Farm in Warangal: Bt Cotton, Higher Yields, and Larger Questions. World Development 39(3):387-398.

Unrecognizability and rate of change:

now 6 events in > 1000 commercial hybrid seeds.

Stone, G. and A. Flachs. Unpublished manuscript.

Uncertainties:

Benefits of reduced spraying come at cost of exacerbated problems in trialability?

Where the system is heading in the longer term? Recall that the reason there was a demand for Bt technology in the first place were the problems caused by adoption of the previous round of technology. How much better is the genetic treadmill for farmers than the pesticide treadmill?

Relevance for “developing countries” in general?

India countrywide cotton yields

Bt cotton

India countrywide cotton yields

India countrywide cotton yields

Bt seed starts to be adopted widely

Uncertainty

?