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SOUTH NEPEAN
Capacity Planning
By Margaret Flores P.Eng
AGENDA
South Nepean Region Overview
– South Nepean Stations
– Historical area loading
HOL Planning Criteria
– Station Planning
– Feeder Planning
Expected Growth
– Major developments
– Expected load growth
15 September 2015 Page 2
REGION OVERVIEW –SOUTH NEPEAN STATIONS
15 September 2015 Page 3
South Stations
REGION OVERVIEW –STATIONS SUPPLY AREAS
15 September 2015 Page 4
REGION OVERVIEW- FEEDER ROUTING
15 September 2015 Page 5
REGION OVERVIEW- HISTORICAL LOADING
15 September 2015 Page 6
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Lo
ad
(M
W)
Actual
Weather Corrected (1 in 10 Year)
Average Growth
HOL PLANNING CRITERIA – STATION PLANNING
Stations Rated Capacity
– Sum of the top rating of all transformers within the substation
Station Planning Capacity
– N-1 Contingency: Loss of the largest transformer within a substation
15 September 2015 Page 7
HOL PLANNING CRITERIA – STATION PLANNING
Fallowfield Station
Rated Capacity: 52MW
Planning Capacity: 26MW
Load: 28MW
Longfields Station
Rated Capacity: 28MW
Planning Capacity: 14MW
Load: 15MW
15 September 2015 Page 8
HOL PLANNING CRITERIA- FEEDER PLANNING
Feeders Rated Capacity
– Based on the egress cable 8 hour loading limit.
Feeders Planning Capacity
– Takes these three factors into consideration:
• Coordination with protection settings
• Feeder cold load pick up ability
• Cable overload capability
15 September 2015 Page 9
Feeder Load (A)
Plan Rate
FAL01 127 41%
FAL02 270 87%
FAL03 264 85%
FAL04 0 0%
210F1 223 72%
210F2 123 40%
7F1 230 74%
7F2 344 111%
CAPACITY ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
An average annual load growth rate is calculated using the stations’ historic load levels
Adjustments are made to the forecast to account for known City of Ottawa and developer plans, forecasted load transfers and other local events
Estimated loads:
– Residential = 1.8kW/unit or 2.3 kW/unit
– Commercial= 75.38W/m2
– Business Park= 18MW/km2
15 September 2015 Page 10
LOAD GROWTH AREAS
15 September 2015 Page 11
EXPECTED GROWTH –NEPEAN TOWN CENTRE
15 September 2015 Page 12
Table - Land Use Statistics Phase
Retail Gross
Floor Area (m2)
Office Gross Floor
Area (m2)
# of Dwelling
Units
Expected Load (MVA)
Phase 1 - Initial 78,000 1,000 0 6.62
Phase 2 - Interim Built Out
208,250 158,250 7,250 45.20
Phase 3 - Ultimate Build Out
217,000 350,500 11,050 69.63
Green
ban
k R
d
Lo
ng
field
s D
r
EXPECTED GROWTH-STRANDHERD BUSINESS PARK
15 September 2015 Page 13
Area Expected Load
2 km2 36 MW
EXPECTED GROWTH-BARRHAVEN SOUTH COMMUNITY DESIGN PLAN
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Units Estimated Load (MW)
Residential 4170 9
Schools 8 5.4
EXPECTED GROWTH-BARRHAVEN SOUTH URBAN EXPANSION
15 September 2015 Page 15
Area Expected Load
2.8 km2 9 MW
EXPECTED GROWTH- LONGFIELDS COMMUNITY PLANS
15 September 2015 Page 16
136 units & 19 apt bldgs 5.6MW
126 units & 4 apt buildings
650kW
220 units and 2 apt buildings
777kW
186 units 430kW
283 units 653kW
Longfields Station –Campanale Homes
Jock River Farms
Larco Longfields
Mattino Developments
Fieldstone Community
EXPECTED GROWTH- FORECASTED LOAD
15 September 2015 Page 17
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Lo
ad
(M
W)
Sources of Growth Expected Development
Tartan Homes Fallowfield Strandherd Business Park Richcraft Longfields Nepean Town Centre
Monarch Homes Mattino Development Longfield New Residential Longfields Commercial
Larco Longfields Jock River Farms Barrhaven South Expansion Barrhaven South
Campanale Homes
FORECASTED LOAD FOR SOUTH NEPEAN
15 September 2015 Page 18
0
50
100
150
2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031
MW
Current Rating High Growth Forecast Planning Forecast
CONCLUSION
Load in the South Nepean area has almost double since 2002.
Approximately 70 MW of additional load is expected in the next 20 years.
There is a need for additional capacity in the South Nepean area.
15 September 2015 Page 19
THANK YOU