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Bergesen d.y. ASA Presentation for Handelsbanken Markets May 23rd 2001 CFO Garup Meidell

Presentation for Handelsbanken Markets May 23rd 2001reports.huginonline.com/822378/90295.pdf · • Main business area (VLGC, LGC) • Growth opportunities in LNG • Customer based

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  • Bergesen d.y. ASA

    Presentation forHandelsbanken Markets

    May 23rd 2001

    CFO Garup Meidell

  • Bergesen d.y. ASABergesen d.y. ASA

    • LPG• Ammonia• Petrochem.

    gases• LNG• 61 ships• 3 newbuilds (1LPG/2LNG)

    • Iron ore• 7 ships• 1 newbuild

    • Crude oil• 18 VLCCs• 2 Ore/oilers• 2 newbuilds

    • 2 FPSOs• 1 LPG FPSO• 2 FPSOs

    underconversion

    Company overview

    Gastransportation

    Gastransportation Dry bulk transportation

    Dry bulk transportationCrudetransportation

    Crudetransportation Offshoresolutions

    Offshoresolutions

  • Company overview• USD 1,5 bn market capitalisation• USD 1,8 bn value adjusted equity• USD 197 million t/c-revenues (2001 Q1)• USD 104 million operating result (2001 Q1)• 3,500 employees world-wide

    EBITDA per segment (2001 Q1)

    EBITDA per segment (2001 Q1)

    Fleet value per segment (2001 Q1)Fleet value per

    segment (2001 Q1)

    Dry bulk4 %

    Offshore6 %

    Crude oil44 %

    Gas46 %

    Dry bulk6 %

    Offshore8 %

    Crude oil39 %

    Gas47 %

  • Synergies in Bergesen

    OFFSHORE

    LPG TANKMaturemarkets

    Growthmarkets

    LNG

    � Tonnage

    � Capital

    � Relations

    � Competence

    Securesaccess tonew growthareas

  • 5075

    100125150175200225250275300325350375400425450475500525550

    jan-

    90

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    NOK

    Bergesen d.y. A-shareOslo Stock Exchange Total Index rebased

    A decade of poor share performance...

    Oslo Børs Total Index

    Bergesen A

  • ...due to weak ROCE during 1992-96

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

    %

    Return on Capital Employed (RoCE)Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

  • New strategy - per segment

    GASS

    • Main business area (VLGC, LGC)• Growth opportunities in LNG• Customer based solutions• Further consolidation

    TANK• Independant operator• Opportunistic approach

    OFFSHORE

    • Leading on generic low-cost solutions• Strong cost control• Conversion of both VLCCs and VLGCs• Organic growth

    BULK• Protect and develop close customer relations• Tailor-made ships / long-term contracts

  • New strategy - general

    • Cost cutting– new crewing policy– outsourcing of technical management on some

    vessels• Streamlining of balance sheet

    – sale of non-core assets– increase gearing through new investments

    • Focus on shareholders value– buy-back of shares– increasing dividend

  • Gas transportation

    GAS TRANSPORTATION

  • • The LPG market is supply driven• Poten & Partners estimates 2,0%, 6,8% and 3,2% p.a. Growth

    in LPG exports in 2001, 2002 and 2003 respectively:

    The LPG market

    Source: Poten & Partners

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

    Million tons

    Middle East Asia Africa Europe USA Latin America

    • Fleet growth for VLGC fleet in 2001, 2002 and 2003: 8,5%, 1,0% and 4,8% p.a. - before scrapping.

    • Limited growth for LGC and MGC fleets.

  • VLGC fleet age profile

    • The order book 2001-2003 represents 11% ofcurrent VLGC fleet.

    • 22% of the VLGC fleet above 25 years of age• Increasingly difficult to operate vintage vessels

    commercially due to charterers hesitance.

    012

    3

    45

    67

    89

    10

    1971

    1973

    1975

    1977

    1979

    1981

    1983

    1985

    1987

    1989

    1991

    1993

    1995

    1997

    1999

    2001

    2003

  • Alternative trade for VLGC in naphtha• To increase utilisation, the VLGCs can trade naphtha from

    Arabian Gulf to Japan/Korea• VLGCs are swing-tonnage when large product carriers (LR)

    are fully employed• New naphtha capacity has increased exports from the

    Emirates (excempted from OPEC quotas), but this trade ishighly seasonal:

    • Limited fleet growth for LR product carrier 2001-2002 shouldprovide opportunites for continued VLGC employment innaphtha.

    LR product average spot earnings yr/yr (naphtha trade) 1994-2001

    140001500016000170001800019000200002100022000230002400025000

    jan

    feb

    mar

    mar apr

    mai jun jul

    aug

    sep

    okt

    nov

    des

    US

    D/d

    ay

  • 0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    des.

    98m

    ar.9

    9ju

    n.99

    sep.

    99de

    s.99

    mar

    .00

    jun.

    00se

    p.00

    des.

    00m

    ar.0

    1ju

    n.01

    sep.

    01de

    s.01

    mar

    .02

    jun.

    02se

    p.02

    des.

    02m

    ar.0

    3ju

    n.03

    sep.

    03de

    s.03

    mar

    .04

    USD

    /mm

    btu

    Henry Hub historical spot Henry Hub Nymex future

    High natural gas prices - positive for LPG

    • US based ammonia producers close capacity athome and imports ammonia due to high feedstockprices (natural gas)

    • Higher imports of LPG (propane & butane) to USAbecause less LPG is being separated from thenatural gas when prices are high

    NYMEX future pricesindicates high expectationsfor natural gas prices the

    next 4 years

  • LPG FPSO

    Future potential within floating production:• Bergesen operates 1 LPG FPSO, Berge Troll:

    • Flaring of gas prohibited in Nigeria as of 2008• Oil majors avoid flaring due to environmental

    reasons• Gas injection is technically challening and

    expensive• Bergesen has a suitable fleet of 1978-82 built

    VLGCs available

  • VLGC segment outlook

    • Low growth in LPG volumes 2000 / 2001– out of the Middle East due to internal use of LPG in Saudi

    Arabia– increasing volumes again from 2002

    • Increasingly difficult to operate vintage vesselsdue to charterers preference for younger vessels

    • Alternative VLGC employment in naphtha• High natural gas prices in the USA• New trades and longer distances

    – more long-haul LPG export from Africa to Asia

    • Future potential within floating production

    Generally positive outlook, but large influx of new vessels over the next 12 monhts

  • LGC and MGC segments outlook

    • Bergesen LGC pool-cooperation with Russianammonia producers

    • Strong Atlantic ammonia and LPG markets due tohigh US natural gas prices

    • Benefits from consolidation (Bergesen and Exmarpools

    • More difficult to operate vintage vesselscommercially

    – Bergesen has initiated fleet renewal

    • Limited fleet growth for both LGC and MGC

    Favourable market outlook

  • LNG

    The energy of the future

  • Why invest in the LNG market?� Significant internal know-how in gas

    transportation� Owns two 30.000 cbm LNG carriers

    � (Century on 7 yr t/c in LNG, Havfru 2 years t/c in LNG)

    � Natural gas is the energy of the future ->LNG a new growth market for Bergesen

    � LNG market in structural changes� Full utilisation of current LNG fleet� High entry barriers (high unit price and

    quality operation and safety requirements)� Good opportunity for value creation� Bergesen has ordered 2 LNG carriers

  • Crude oil transportation

  • IMO effect on Bergesen’s tanker fleet

    Year Age categori2003 1973 or earlier2004 1974 and 19752005 1976 and 19772006 1978, 1979 and 19802007 1981 and later

    No.

    01523

    Resulting age

    -29 years28/29 years26/27 years

    21/24/26 years

    • Limited effect for Bergesen untill 2005 –substantial cashflow expected from 1970/80-builtVLCCs the coming years.

    • In a “normal” tanker market the above vesselsbeing phased out, would have been scrappedanyway.

  • 2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2019

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    2026

    2027

    2028

    2029

    2030

    2031

    2032

    Berge Odel

    Berge Helene

    Berge Chief

    Berge Borg

    Berge Boss

    Berge Bragd

    Berge Inger id

    Berge Banker

    Berge Pioneer

    Berge Enterprise

    Berge Nisa

    Berge Phoenix

    Berge Fjord

    Berge Sigval

    Berge Stavanger

    Berge Stadt

    Berge Ichiban

    Berge Tokyo

    Berge Fuji

    Berge Ariake

    Berge Sakura

    Hitachi 4971

    Hitachi 4972

    Scrapping at 25 years Scrapping at 27,5 years

    Lay-up in preparation for FPSO conversion

    Bergesen’s tanker fleet

    • Substantial fleet renewal has taken place:

    Only 4 VLCCs and 1 O/Owill have earlier phase-out with new IMO regulations. Berge Phoenix will continue

    in dry bulk trade

  • Bergesen’s charter cover

    Period Rate StructureBerge Pioneer 06/01 M FCBerge Enterprise 02/02 FE -Berge Stadt 02/02 M PFBerge Stavanger 01/01+1+1 M FCBerge Sigval 09/03+1+1+1 FE -Berge Tokyo 01/02 M PFBerge Ichiban 02/02 M PFBerge Helene 03/01 F -Berge Fuji 07/02+1+1 FE -

    Rate StructureM = Market related rate P = Profit splitF = Fixed rate F = FloorE = Escalation clause C = Ceiling

    • 62% spot exposure (including newbuildings)• The rest on flexible charters:

  • Market outlook

    • High tanker fleet utilisation• Fleet growth may be higher than

    demand growth during 2001 and 2002• The Erika effect is strong• Consolidation effects?• Still low oil product stocks• IMO effect as of 20032001: average spot earnings estimated around samelevels as 20002002: possibly somewhat weaker than 2001, but stillstrong tanker earnings2003: stronger market due to new IMO regulations

  • Bergesen Offshore

    The low cost operator in benign waters

  • Why West Africa ?

    � Enormousreserves

    � Low cost region

    � Benign waters

  • How are we different?2. Project Execution D

    river

    Low High

    Harsh

    Benign

    3. Cost

    1. E

    nvir

    onm

    ent

    Asia & Australia

    South America

    NorthSea

    Gulf of Mexico

    Persian Gulf

    Purpose-built,EngineeringDriven

    Conversion,Shiprepair &ConversionDriven

    Berg

    esen

    Offs

    hore

    Fred

    . Olse

    n Pr

    oduc

    tion

    Nor

    trans

    Offs

    hore

    Oce

    anee

    ring

    Mae

    rsk

    SBM

    Blue

    wat

    er

    Gol

    ar N

    or/P

    GS

    Nav

    ion

    4. FPSO Contractors

    West Africa

  • Competitive edge

    � Large fleet of tankers and gas carriersat hand

    � Well experienced offshore managmentteam

    � Cost-effective solutions -not engineering driven

    � In-house technical and commercialexpertise

    � Competitive agreement in place withABB Offshore Systems AS

    � The first generic FPSO is producing (ontime - at cost) !

  • Summary

    � More focused strategy� Focus on shareholders value� Improved return on capital employed

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

    %

    Return on Capital EmployedWeighted Average Cost of Capital

  • Summary

    � More focused strategy� Focus on shareholders value� Improved return on capital employed� Strong tanker market the next 2-3 years� LPG exports likely to increase from 2002� Interesting opportunities in naphatha

    trade for VLGCs� Competitive edge in West Africa� Growth opportunites in LNG� Still high discount to net asset values

  • Shareprice vs. NAV

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 01Q1

    Bergesen A (average) Net asset value (year end)

    Still high discount to NAV

  • Aksjekurs, A: 212 Aksjekurs, B: 200 Veiet kurs (A og B ): 208,6 USD/NOK: 9,07 ,Meglerhus Anbefaling ���� Dato siste analyse Kursmål, 6-12m Implisitt P/E 2002e EBIT 2001e EPS 2001e EBIT 2002e EPS 2002eAlfred Berg Ingen analy ser etter at Ax el Andersen gikk ov er til DnBs c orporate avdeling - Henrik With v il ta over

    Carnegie Accumulate � 21-mai-01 185 10,2 267 3,0 196 2,0Nordea Sec. Buy � 16-mai-01 250 8,6 261 3,4 226 3,2DnB Markets Hold � 10-apr-01 183 2,2 145 1,2Fearnley Fonds Buy � 10-apr-01 200 4,8 380 5,1 345 4,6First Securities Reduce � 18-mai-01 160 7,9 201 2,5 152 2,2Fondsfinans Hold � 16-mai-01 200 6,9 261 3,4 255 3,2Orkla Enskilda 1/Buy � 21-mai-01 250 8,4 232 2,91 246 3,3Pareto Strong buy � 18-mai-01 270 6,7 296 4,0 305 4,4UBS Warburg Long-term Buy Ny 01-mai-01 218 6,7 255 3,8 246 3,6Gjennomsnitt Buy � 217 7,7 260 3,4 235 3,1

    Broker recommendations

    Share price targets and estimates before 2001Q1 figures were released: