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PREPARING FOR SEA LEVEL RISE IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY BC3 June 17, 2011 Jeremy Lowe, ESA PWA. Mitigation - avoiding the unmanageable Adaptation - managing the unavoidable. 2000 - 0 in. 2100 55 in. 2050 14 in. 2100+ ?? in. 6.5ft NAVD - King Tide, January 2011 5.9ft NAVD – MHHW - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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PREPARING FOR SEA LEVEL RISEIN SAN FRANCISCO BAY
BC3June 17, 2011
Jeremy Lowe, ESA PWA
Mitigation - avoiding the unmanageable
Adaptation - managing the unavoidable
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
14
40
47
55
25
7
19
58
Sea Level Rise - USACE (2009) Circular 1155-2-211OPC Resolution March 11, 2011
Presidio Observed Presidio 19yr Mov Avg USACE Curve III USACE Curve IUSACE Historic OPC High OPC Medium OPC Low
Year
Sea
Leve
l Rise
Rel
ative
to 2
000,
in
2000 - 0 in2050 14 in2100 55 in2100+ ?? in
6.5ft NAVD - King Tide, January 20115.9ft NAVD – MHHW0.6ft increase ~ 2010 - 2030
Photo: Mark Songey, 02/17/11
Photo: Heidi Nutters, 11:30am, 02/17/11
Frank’s Dump West - New Year’s Eve 20058.9 ft tides; 40mph westerly winds Photo: Mark Taylor
Inundation
Erosion
Hayward Marsh - New Year’s Eve 20058.9 ft tides; 40mph westerly winds Photo: Mark Taylor
Functions
Urban Habitat Storm drainage Land fill Wastewater Utility corridors Trails
Storm drainage Designed for a certain bay elevation
Lack of drainage as MLLW rises Structures fixed relative to tide frame Upstream impacts will increase
Exposure increaseswith time
Adaptation mayrequire pumping
Opportunity toconsolidate
Functions
Urban Habitat Storm drainage Land fill Sewage treatment Utility corridors Trails
PGE
EBDA line
RailroadCable
HP Gas
Bay trail
Hold the Line
Realign
Rapid landward movement increases as sea level rises
Terraced Levee
Rapid landward movement increases as sea level rises
Mudflat Tidal Marsh Brackish MarshFreshwater
Swale
Treated Wastewater and Stormwater
Seepage
Overflow
Wave Attenuation
0ft 1ft 2ft 3ft 4ft
Existing levees
Terraced levees
Realign functions
Terraced levees
Enhance existing wetlands, realign levees
Lead Time Effective
Realign functions
Threshold
5ft
Decision
An Adaptation Strategy?
San Pedro Road, China Camp - January 2010 spring tidePhoto: Peter
Baye
Not an Adaptation Strategy