Prem Watsa 2014 AGM Final Slides

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Prem Watsa 2014 AGM Final Slides

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  • Annual Meeting April 09, 2014

    Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation

    is, unless otherwise noted, in US$

  • Forward-Looking Statements

    Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the "safe harbour" provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Fairfax to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: a reduction in net earnings if our loss reserves are insufficient; underwriting losses on the risks we insure that are higher or lower than expected; the occurrence of catastrophic events with a frequency or severity exceeding our estimates; changes in market variables, including interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices and credit spreads, which could negatively affect our investment portfolio; the cycles of the insurance market and general economic conditions, which can substantially influence our and our competitors' premium rates and capacity to write new business; insufficient reserves for asbestos, environmental and other latent claims; exposure to credit risk in the event our reinsurers fail to make payments to us under our reinsurance arrangements; exposure to credit risk in the event our insureds, insurance producers or reinsurance intermediaries fail to remit premiums that are owed to us or failure by our insureds to reimburse us for deductibles that are paid by us on their behalf; risks associated with implementing our business strategies; the timing of claims payments being sooner or the receipt of reinsurance recoverables being later than anticipated by us; the inability of our subsidiaries to maintain financial or claims paying ability ratings; risks associated with our use of derivative instruments; the failure of our hedging methods to achieve their desired risk management objective; a decrease in the level of demand for insurance or reinsurance products, or increased competition in the insurance industry; the failure of any of the loss limitation methods we employ; the impact of emerging claim and coverage issues; our inability to access cash of our subsidiaries; our inability to obtain required levels of capital on favourable terms, if at all; loss of key employees; our inability to obtain reinsurance coverage in sufficient amounts, at reasonable prices or on terms that adequately protect us; the passage of legislation subjecting our businesses to additional supervision or regulation, including additional tax regulation, in the United States, Canada or other jurisdictions in which we operate; risks associated with government investigations of, and litigation and negative publicity related to, insurance industry practice or any other conduct; risks associated with political and other developments in foreign jurisdictions in which we operate; risks associated with legal or regulatory proceedings; failures or security breaches of our computer and data processing systems; the influence exercisable by our significant shareholder; adverse fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; our dependence on independent brokers over whom we exercise little control; an impairment in the carrying value of our goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets; our failure to realize deferred income tax assets; and assessments and shared market mechanisms which may adversely affect our U.S. insurance subsidiaries. Additional risks and uncertainties are described in our most recently issued Annual Report which is available at www.fairfax.ca and in our Supplemental and Base Shelf Prospectus (under "Risk Factors") filed with the securities regulatory authorities in Canada, which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Fairfax disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

    2

  • Guiding Principles

    Objectives

    We expect to compound our book value per share over the long term by 15% annually by running Fairfax and its

    subsidiaries for the long term benefit of customers,

    employees and shareholders at the expense of short term profits if necessary

    Our focus is long term growth in book value per share and

    not quarterly earnings. We plan to grow through internal

    means as well as through friendly acquisitions

    We always want to be soundly financed

    We provide complete disclosure annually to our shareholders

    3

  • Guiding Principles

    Structure

    Our companies are decentralized and run by the presidents except for performance evaluation, succession planning,

    acquisitions and financing, which are done by or with

    Fairfax. Cooperation among companies is encouraged to

    the benefit of Fairfax in total

    Complete and open communication between Fairfax and its subsidiaries is an essential requirement at Fairfax

    Share ownership and large incentives are encouraged across the Group

    Fairfax head office will always be a very small holding company and not an operating company

    4

  • Guiding Principles

    Values

    Honesty and integrity are essential in all of our relationships and will never be compromised

    We are results-oriented not political

    We are team players no "egos. A confrontational style is not appropriate. We value loyalty to Fairfax and our colleagues

    We are hard working but not at the expense of our families

    We always look at opportunities but emphasize downside protection and look for ways to minimize loss of capital

    We are entrepreneurial. We encourage calculated risk-taking. It is all right to fail but we should learn from our mistakes

    We will never bet the company on any project or acquisition

    We believe in having fun at work! 5

  • 4 6 8

    11

    15 18 19 2

    6 31 3

    9

    63

    86

    11

    2

    15

    6

    14

    8

    11

    8 12

    7

    16

    7

    16

    7

    14

    3 15

    7

    24

    0

    29

    3

    39

    3

    40

    9

    40

    7

    431

    33

    9

    1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

    Book Value

    Cumulative Dividend

    Fairfax 28 Years

    6

    Shareholders Book Value per Share plus Dividends $

    1.5

    2

    402 28 Year Compound Annual Growth Rate

    22%

    339

  • Financial Results

    (1) Excludes dividends paid

    7

    Book Value

    per Share (1) % Change

    2006 $ 150

    2007 $ 230 53%

    2008 $ 278 21%

    2009 $ 369 33%

    2010 $ 376 2%

    2011 $ 365 (3%)

    2012 $ 378 4%

    2013 $ 339 (10%)

  • 8

    19.8%

    16.5%

    15.4%

    14.4% 13.9%

    12.7%

    11.7% 11.2% 10.8% 10.7%

    10.2%

    9.1% 8.7%

    4.0%

    (1.2%)

    Historic Performance vs Peer Group

    Compound Growth in Book Value per Share (5 Years ending 2013) (1)

    (1) Except for S&P 500 and TSX which are compound index return excluding dividends

  • 23

    %

    11

    %

    10

    %

    8%

    7

    %

    6%

    5%

    5

    %

    3%

    3

    %

    3%

    3

    %

    2%

    (1

    %)

    (3%

    )

    (3%

    )

    (3%

    )

    (4%

    ) (5

    %)

    (5%

    ) (6

    %)

    (7%

    ) (7

    %)

    (8%

    ) (8

    %)

    (9%

    )

    (9%

    ) (1

    2%

    )

    (13

    %)

    (14

    %)

    (14

    %)

    (14

    %)

    (15

    %)

    (16

    %)

    (17

    %)

    (18

    %)

    (18

    %)

    (19

    %)

    (19

    %)

    (19

    %)

    (22

    %)

    (24

    %)

    (31

    %)

    (32

    %)

    (37

    %)

    (37

    %)

    (43

    %)

    (48

    %)

    (65

    %)

    (10

    0%

    )

    SOURCE: Dowling & Partners, IBNR #12

    Fairfax and AIG calculated using the same methodology as Dowling & Partners, based on company data (AIG excludes government financing) 9

    2008 Change in Book Value per Share

  • Historic Performance vs Peer Group

    Compound Growth in Book Value per Share (28 Years: since Fairfaxs inception) (1)

    10

    (1) Except for S&P 500 and TSX which are compound index return excluding dividends

    21.3%

    17.0% 16.3%

    14.6%

    13.3% 13.1%

    10.1% 9.0%

    8.1%

    5.7%

  • Source of Earnings in 2013

    11

    ($ millions)

    (1) Includes: Runoff underwriting income, Interest expense and corporate overhead & other

    Underwriting profit (Combined Ratio of 92.7%) 440 Investment income and other 382

    Operating Income 822

    Other (1) (259)

    Realized investment gains 1,380

    Pre-tax income including realized investment gains 1,943 Unrealized investment losses (mostly from bonds) (962)

    Hedging losses (1,982)

    Pre-tax loss (1,001)

    Net Loss (565)

  • Equity and equity related investments Equity hedges Net equity Bonds CPI-linked Derivatives Other

    1,324

    29

    Realized

    Gains

    (Losses) ($ millions)

    (1,351)

    (27) 66 -

    (10)

    Unrealized

    Gains

    (Losses) ($ millions)

    121 (631)

    (510) (995) (127)

    39

    (1,593)

    Net

    Gains

    (Losses) ($ millions)

    1,445 (1,982)

    (537) (929) (127)

    29

    (1,564)

    Net Gains on Investments in 2013

    12

  • Equity and equity related investments Equity hedges Net equity Bonds CPI-linked Derivatives Other

    2,767

    2,835

    Realized

    Gains

    (Losses) ($ millions)

    (1,344)

    1,423 1,622

    - (209)

    Unrealized

    Gains

    (Losses) ($ millions)

    (91) (2,166)

    (2,256) (468) (462) 118

    (3,068)

    Net

    Gains

    (Losses) ($ millions)

    2,676 (3,510)

    (834) 1,154 (462)

    (91)

    (233)

    Net Gains on Investments 2010 2013

    13

  • Accident Year Combined Ratios

    14

    Cumulative Net

    Premiums Average

    Written Combined Ratio

    ($ billions)

    Northbridge Cdn 11.0 98.4%

    Crum & Forster 9.9 101.8%

    OdysseyRe 21.6 92.6%

    Fairfax Asia 1.3 86.7%

    43.8 96.0%

    2004-2013

  • Average Annual

    Reserve

    Redundancies

    Northbridge 10.3%

    Crum & Forster 4.6%

    OdysseyRe 11.3%

    Fairfax Asia 7.9%

    2003-2012

    Accident Year Reserve Redundancies

    15

  • Net Premiums

    Written/

    Net Premiums Statutory Statutory

    Written Surplus Surplus

    Northbridge 1,031 1,172 0.9x

    Crum & Forster 1,233 1,142 1.1x

    Zenith National 700 516 1.4x

    OdysseyRe 2,377 3,809 (1) 0.6x

    Fairfax Asia 257 610 (1) 0.4x

    Strong Operating Companies Capital - 2013

    (1) IFRS total equity

    16

    ($ millions) ($ millions)

  • Well Positioned for a Turn in the Cycle

    17 0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

    Gro

    ss P

    rem

    ium

    s W

    ritt

    en

    OdysseyRe

    Northbridge (Cdn $)

    Crum & Forster

    Soft Market Hard Market

    ($ millions)

  • Importance of Float

    10 year average cost of float: 0.7%

    (2004 2013)

    18

    Operating Total

    Companies (Including Runoff) Per Share

    1985 $ 12.5 million $ 12.5 million $ 3

    2013 $ 11.9 billion $ 15.6 billion $ 734

    Year-End

  • Importance of Float

    19

    Year-End 2013

    ($ millions) Per Share

    Total Float 15,551 $ 734

    Common Shareholders' Equity 7,187 $ 339

    Net Liabilities 2,124 $ 100

    Total Investment Portfolio 24,862 $ 1,173

    Investment Portfolio in 1985 24 $ 5

  • Gains Per Share

    ($ millions)

    1985 0.5 10

    2008 2,144 $ 118

    2009 1,981 $ 108

    2010 (3)

    2011 691 $ 34

    2012 643 $ 31

    2013 (1,564) $ (77)

    Cumulative Gains billion$ 10

    Pre-Tax Realized and Unrealized Gains

    20

  • ($ millions)

    Pre-Tax Income Runoff Operations

    21

    2007 188

    2008 393

    2009 31

    2010 165

    2011 351

    2012 184

    2013 (229)

    Cumulative (2007-2013) 1,083

  • Acquisitions in 2013

    American Safety 100% ownership

    Hartville 100% ownership

    Thomas Cook/IKYA/Sterling

    Prime/CARA/Keg

    22

  • Investment Performance

    Hamblin Watsa Investment Performance

    Notes: Bonds do not include returns from credit default swaps.

    Common stocks (with equity hedging) 3.2% 7.6% 13.5%

    S&P 500 17.9% 7.4% 4.7%

    Taxable bonds 11.2% 10.3% 9.9%

    Merrill Lynch U.S.corporate

    (1-10 year) bond index

    8.4% 5.0% 5.7%

    5 Years 10 Years 15 Years

    As at December 31, 2013

    23

  • Fairfaxs Investment Portfolio 2008 vs 2013

    Cash/Short-Term31%

    Corporate Bonds

    6%

    Municipal Bonds

    25%

    Gov't Bonds

    12%Common Stocks 22%

    (~100% Hedged)

    Other

    Investments

    4%

    Cash/Short-Term27%

    Corporate Bonds

    4%

    Common Stocks 16%

    (~100% Hedged)

    Other

    Investments

    6%

    Government

    Bonds 47%

    September 30, 2008 (1)

    $20.4 billion

    (1) Includes holding company cash and marketable securities

    December 31, 2013 (1)

    $24.9 billion

    24

  • At December 31, 2012 n/a $ 378

    First quarter $ 7.1 $ 373

    Second quarter $ (8.6) $ 362

    Third quarter $ (29.0) $ 335

    Fourth quarter $ (1.0) $ 339

    2013

    Earnings

    (Loss) per

    Share

    Book

    Value per

    Share

    Fairfax Focused on the Long Term

    Earnings and book value volatile on a quarterly basis

    25

  • Financial Strength

    26

    2012 2013

    Holding Company Obligations 2,378 2,491

    Subsidiary Debt 671 504

    Total Debt 3,049 2,995

    Holding Company Cash and Marketable Securities 1,128 1,242

    Net Debt 1,921 1,753

    Total Equity & Non-controlling Interests 8,890 8,461

    Net Debt/Net Total Capital 17.8% 17.2%

    Total Debt/Total Capital 25.5% 26.1%

    ($ millions)

  • Investments Not Carried at Market Value

    27

    Carrying

    Value

    Fair

    Value

    Unrealized

    Gain

    ($ millions) ($ millions) ($ millions)

    Investments in Associates 1,433 1,815 382

    Thomas Cook India 162 253 91

    Ridley 70 131 61

    Eurobank Properties (Rights Offering) 109

    Total 643

  • 28

    Emerging Markets and Asian Footprint

    Gross

    Premiums

    Written Ownership

    Fairfax's Share of

    Gross Premiums

    Written

    First Capital 399 100% 399

    Fairfax Brasil 151 100% 151

    Polish Re 100 100% 100

    Pacific Insurance 73 100% 73

    Falcon Insurance (Hong Kong) 58 100% 58

    781 781

    ICICI Lombard 1,240 26% 322

    Alltrust Insurance 900 15% 135

    Gulf Insurance 533 41% 219

    Falcon Insurance (Thailand) 48 41% 20

    Other Reinsurance 334 25% 84

    3,055 780

    Total 3,836 1,561

  • 100%

    120%

    140%

    160%

    180%

    200%

    220%

    240%

    260%

    280%

    300%

    320%

    340%

    360%

    380%

    400%

    100%

    120%

    140%

    160%

    180%

    200%

    220%

    240%

    260%

    280%

    300%

    320%

    340%

    360%

    380%

    400%

    1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

    Panic Year 2008

    Panic Year 1929

    Panic Year 1873

    1870-2013 avg. = 180.2%

    Current total debt = $58.9 trillion

    Debt/GDP of 180.2% would require total debt of $30.8 trillion

    30Source: Hoisington Investment Management

    U.S. Private and Public Debt as % of GDP

    29

  • 30

    100%

    200%

    300%

    400%

    500%

    600%

    700%

    1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

    100%

    200%

    300%

    400%

    500%

    600%

    700%

    Canada

    Australia

    U.S.

    Eurozone

    U.K.

    Japan

    Source: Hoisington Investment Management

    annual

    Total Public and Private Debt

    as a % of GDP Major Countries

  • 1.00

    1.25

    1.50

    1.75

    2.00

    2.25

    1.00

    1.25

    1.50

    1.75

    2.00

    2.25

    1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

    Source: Hoisington Investment Management 32

    1918 = 1.95

    Avg. 1900 to

    present = 1.71

    1946 = 1.18

    1997 = 2.2

    annual

    Avg. 1953 to 1983 = 1.74

    1.57

    31

    Velocity of Money 1900-2013

    Equation of Exchange: GDP (nominal) = M*V

  • 0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

    Source: Hoisington Investment Management

    Debt Induced Panic Years and

    Long-Term Government Bond Yields

    1. Average low level of interest rates after panic 2.0%

    2. Average number of years after panic to lowest level

    of interest rates

    13.7 years

    3. Average level of interest rates 20 years after panic 2.5%

    4. Change from low level of interest rates to 20th year 0.5%

    Long-Term Government Bond Yields

    Historic Panic Years

    U.S. 2008

    U.S. 1929

    Japan 1989

    32

  • 0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    Source: Hoisington Investment Management

    Interest rate avg. = 2.9%

    Inflation rate avg. = 1.0%

    avg. = 4.3%

    Onset of Iron and

    Bamboo Curtains

    Fall of Berlin Wall

    Interest rate avg. = 6%

    Inflation rate avg. = 3.9%

    Global market Restricted market

    Global

    market

    1871 1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991 2011

    3433

    Long Term Treasury Rate 1871-2013

  • 05

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    1881 1893 1905 1917 1929 1941 1953 1965 1977 1989 2001 2013

    Source: Hoisington Investment Management

    Average

    Dec. 1999

    42

    Average at end of

    recessions = 13.1

    Range = 5.3 to 19.3

    Avg. = 16.4

    35

    Jan. 1966

    24

    Sept. 1929

    32

    June 1901

    25

    34

    Shillers Price-Earnings Ratio 1881-2013

  • S&P 500 Index and Profit Margins

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    1,600

    1,800

    2,000

    Jan 1994 Jan 1998 Jan 2002 Jan 2006 Jan 2010 Jan 2014

    Profit Margin Index

    Source: Bloomberg35

  • An

    nu

    al

    Cu

    mu

    lati

    ve

    37Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development

    -15%

    -10%

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    -3%

    -2%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    Annual Deflation Annual Inflation Cumulative

    *

    * Estimate36

    Deflation in Japan

  • 7-10 Year US High Yield Debt

    (Yield To Maturity)

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    Source: Bloomberg

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    37

  • Source: Bloomberg 38

    High Tech Speculation

    Market Cap. P/E Ratio Price to Sales

    (US$ Billions)

    Social MediaTwitter 39 (loss) 38x

    Netflix 27 186x 6x

    Facebook 174 116x 21x

    LinkedIn 24 887x 15x

    Yelp 7 (loss) 27x

    Yandex 12 33x 11x

    Tencent Holdings 150 59x 16x

    Other Tech/WebGroupon 6 (loss) 2x

    Service Now 10 (loss) 22x

    Salesforce.com 38 (loss) 9x

    Netsuite 9 (loss) 21x

  • Monstrous Real Estate & Construction

    Bubble in China

    China built 50 Manhattans between 2008 and 2012

    China built 20 million housing units in 2012 compared to 2 million in the United States at its peak

    At the end of 2013 China had 60 million units under construction

    In many Chinese cities, the existing housing stock has been replicated and is empty

    Home ownership rates in China are estimated to be over 100% versus 65% in the United States

    Since 2009 the Chinese banks have grown by the equivalent of the entire United States banking system

    The shadow banking system in China is estimated by BoA to be $4.7 trillion or 51% of Chinese GDP

    Prior to the credit crisis, the U.S. had $4.5 trillion in asset-backed securities (31% of U.S. GDP)

    A combination of explosive growth and high interest rates has resulted in a massive carry trade where speculators borrow at low rates across

    the world and invest in China when the capital flows reverse, watch out!

    39

  • CPI-Linked Derivative Contracts

    December 31, 2013

    40

    Notional Weighted

    Amount Average Dec 31, 2013

    Underlying CPI Index ($ billions) Strike Price (CPI) CPI

    U.S. 34 230 233

    European Union 39 110 117

    U.K. 6 244 253

    France 4 125 126

    83

    ($ millions)

    Total Cost 546

    Total Market Value 132

  • 41

    Fairfax Historic Total Return on

    Investment Portfolio

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

    Total Return on

    Portfolio

    Average Return on

    Portfolio 8.9%

    2013

  • Peer 1

    Peer 2

    Peer 3

    Peer 4

    Peer 5

    Peer 6

    Peer 7

    Peer 8

    Peer 9

    Peer 10

    Average

    Fairfax

    4.2%

    7.4%

    4.2%

    4.1%

    4.0%

    3.8%

    3.6%

    4.7%

    4.6%

    4.5%

    4.4%

    4.3%

    Superior Long Term Investment

    Track Record

    Source: SNL Financial LC; Returns calculated by Fairfax

    Return on Average Investments 2004-2013

    42

  • Ready for the Next Decade -

    Building on Fairfaxs Strengths

    Our guiding principles have remained intact

    Excellent long term performance

    Demonstrated strengths

    Strong operating subsidiaries focused on underwriting profitability and prudent reserving

    Conservative investment management providing excellent long term returns

    Well positioned for the future

    Fair and friendly Fairfax culture

    43