Powers of persuasion 2019-07-29¢  Powers of persuasion Powers of persuasion: incentives, sanctions and

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  • a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e v i e w o f p e a c e i n i t i a t i ve s

    Issue Editors Aaron Griffiths with Catherine Barnes

    Incentives, sanctions and conditionality in peacemaking

    Powers of persuasion

    Powers of persuasion: incentives, sanctions and conditionality in peacemaking

    Faced with the problem of how to respond to the challenges of intra-state armed conflict, international policymakers frequently turn to incentives, sanctions and conditionality in the hope that these tools can alter the dynamics of the conflict and influence the behaviour of its protagonists.

    But do such policy instruments tend to underpin or undermine peace processes? How can they constructively influence conflict parties’ engagement in peacemaking initiatives? This thematic issue of Accord draws on case studies from across the globe, including Sudan, Northern Ireland, Sri Lanka, Israel/Palestine and South Africa. The studies suggest that while these instruments have in some cases helped to tip the balance towards settlement, in many others they been ineffective, incoherent or subsumed into the dynamics of the conflict.

    The editors of this thematic issue of Accord conclude that for such instruments to be effective, support for sustainable peace must be prioritized and strategies crafted to help achieve it. This in turn requires a degree of strategic coherence amongst external actors. Moreover, rather than externalizing the focus of the negotiation process, policy instruments must be responsive to the conflict parties’ motivations, support pre-existing dynamics for conflict resolution, and help to create momentum in the resolution process.

    Conciliation Resources and the Accord series Conciliation Resources (CR) is an international non-governmental organization that supports people working to prevent violence, promote justice and transform armed conflict. CR’s Accord projects aim to inform and strengthen peace processes, providing a unique resource on conflict and peacemaking.

    “We have used the publications to persuade armed and warring groups to ceasefire and embark on peaceful coexistence through

    dialogue and negotiations. Surely these publications are vital in zones where the rule of the Gun has replaced that of Law.”

    Ariong Lucas Ekuwom, Catholic Justice and Peace Programme, Kitale, Kenya

    “I have always admired Conciliation Resources' conflict publications as the best in-depth cumulative analyses

    of major conflicts.” William Zartman, School of Advanced International Studies,

    John Hopkins University

    The full text of all issues in the Accord series can be found on the Conciliation Resources website at http://www.c-r.org

    Issue 19 2008

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  • Conciliation Resources

    London 2008

    Powers of persuasion Incentives, sanctions and

    conditionality in peacemaking

    Issue Editors: Aaron Griffiths with Catherine Barnes

    Accord 19_AW2 25/2/08 23:20 Page 1

  • At the UN talks on Afghanistan in Koenigswinter, Germany, November 2001, a member of the Peshawar group listens to a speech by the delegation of the

    Civil Society Conference for Peace and Reconstruction in Afghanistan.

    Source: Reuters/Wolfgang Rattay

    Acknowledgements

    Issue Editors Aaron Griffiths with Catherine Barnes Director of Policy, Communications and Comparative Learning Celia McKeon Events and Publications Officer Michelle Gallagher Executive Director Andy Carl

    Conciliation Resources would like to give special thanks for the editorial advice or research provided by Mikael Eriksson, Ulrike Hopp, Chris Mitchell, Clara Portela, Nathalie Tocci, Mihiri Weerasinghe, Teresa Whitfield and Catherine Woollard.

    In addition we extend grateful thanks to our authors, peer readers, photographers and all those who contributed to consultation and analysis in the process of putting this publication together, especially: Mustafa Akinci, Michael Ancram, Margaret Anstee, Raymond Apthorpe, Isabelle Balot, Sunil Bastian, Christine Bell, Peter Bowling, Mark Bradbury, Rex Brynen, Georgina Burns, Phil Champain, Rachel Clogg, Jonathan Cohen, Alvaro de Soto, Alex de Waal, Vebjorn Dysvik, Jan Eliasson, Bjoern Eser, Archil Gegeshidze, Jonathan Goodhand, Glory Hall, Bernard Harborne, Fink Haysom, Timothy Heath, Bryn Higgs, Lawrence Jackson, Menachem Klein, Liana Kvarchelia, Sasha Kukhianidze, Anna Lekvali, Clem McCartney, Mike McGovern, Gerard McHugh, Roelf Meyer, Rhona Miller, David Mitchell, Suthaharan Nadarajah, Harim Peiris, Didier Pfirter, Liz Philipson, Caesar Poblicks, Satyendra Prasad, Anthony Regan, Cordula Reimann, Sol Santos, Mareike Schomerus, Dan Silvey, Brian Smith, Richard Stanforth, Lazaro Sumbeiywo, Lena Sundh, Nicos Trimikliniotis, Kennedy Tumutegyereize and Sarah Wheeler.

    The publication was made possible thanks to financial support from the UK Department for International Development (DFID), the Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA).

    Published by Conciliation Resources 173 Upper Street London N1 1RG United Kingdom

    Telephone +44 (0)20 7359 7728 Fax +44 (0)20 7359 4081 Email accord@c-r.org Website www.c-r.org

    © Conciliation Resources 2008

    Permission is granted for reproduction and use of these materials for educational purposes. Please acknowledge your source when using the materials and notify Conciliation Resources.

    UK charity registration number 1055436

    ISSN 1365-0742

    ISBN 978-1-905805-12-9

    Accord 19_AW2 25/2/08 23:20 Page 2

  • Contents

    3Contents

    Introduction 4 Catherine Barnes, Celia McKeon and Aaron Griffiths Incentives and sanctions in peace processes 9 Aaron Griffiths and Catherine Barnes Influencing resolution: external roles in changing the strategic calculus of conflict 14 Catherine Barnes and Aaron Griffiths Orchestrating international action 18 Teresa Whitfield Harnessing incentives for peace 24 An interview with Alvaro de Soto EU incentives for promoting peace 30 Nathalie Tocci

    South Africa International isolation and pressure for change in South Africa 36 Catherine Barnes Internal and external pressure to negotiate in South Africa 40 An interview with Roelf Meyer

    PNG-Bougainville External versus internal incentives in peace processes: the Bougainville experience 44 Anthony Regan

    Northern Ireland Room for accommodation: incentives, sanctions and conditionality in Northern Ireland 50 David Mitchell

    Darfur Dilemmas of multiple priorities and multiple instruments: the Darfur crisis 54 Alex de Waal Sanctions and the political process for Darfur 60 An interview with Jan Eliasson

    Côte d’Ivoire International interventions in Côte d’Ivoire: in search of a point of leverage 62 Mike McGovern

    Georgia-Abkhazia Introduction to the Georgia-Abkhazia case study 66 Jonathan Cohen The isolation of Abkhazia: a failed policy or an opportunity? 68 Archil Gegeshidze Sanctions and the path away from peace 71 Liana Kvarchelia

    Israel/Palestine Aid as carrot, aid as stick: the politics of aid conditionality in the Palestinian Territories 74 Rex Brynen The Middle East Peace Process: the case for jaw-jaw not war-war 79 Michael Ancram

    Sri Lanka Negotiations in a globalized world 83 Sunil Bastian The limits of external influence 86 Harim Peiris Prejudice, asymmetry and insecurity 88 Suthaharan Nadarajah International support for peace: too much to ask? 90 Brian Smith

    Uganda International involvement and incentives for peacemaking in northern Uganda 92 Mareike Schomerus

    Acronyms 97 Further reading 98 Accord Series 100 About Conciliation Resources 102 Order form 103

    Accord 19_AW2 25/2/08 23:20 Page 3

  • Introduction

    Catherine Barnes, Celia McKeon

    and Aaron Griffiths

    I n response to the vexing issue of how best to address the challenge of armed conflict, international policymakers frequently rely upon the use of

    sanctions, incentives and conditionality. They hope that these policy instruments can alter the parties’ strategic calculus in a way that results in changes to their behaviour and to the dynamics of the conflict. This third thematic edition of Accord casts its net over a wide range of case studies to assess whether and how these instruments can constructively influence conflict parties’ engagement in peacemaking initiatives.

    This question is located in a context of sensitive and shifting debates about the ethics and appropriateness of external interventions in response to intra-state conflicts. It touches on the wider issues of external actors’ search for effective influence over conflict parties in a complex environment of multiple and often contending interests. The range of actors includes multiple states, intergovernmental and regional organizations, and non-state actors such as civil society networks and businesses – each having potentially distinctive roles to play and relationships of influence with the primary parties. Unsurprisingly, it can be extremely challenging to exercise influence coherently within a common strategy. Furthermore, supporting conflict resolution is rarely the primary goal of all concerned.

    This project analyses the use of sanctions, incentives and conditionality from the standpoint of w