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http://www.antares.ws/ ASSESSMENT OF MARINE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AT THE LATIN-AMERICAN ANTARES TIME-SERIES NETWORK IAI PROJECT CRN3094

PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

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Page 1: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

http://www.antares.ws/

ASSESSMENT OF MARINE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AT THE LATIN-AMERICAN ANTARES TIME-SERIES NETWORK

IAI PROJECT CRN3094

Page 2: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

*corresponding autor santamaria@uabc,edu.mx1Universidad Autónoma de Baja California-Facultad de Ciencias Marinas UABC-FCM (Ensenada

México),2Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y uso de la Biodiversidad CONABIO (Mexico City México)3University of South Florida-Institute for Marine Remote Sensing USF-IMARS (San Petersburg USA),

4Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas-Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio CONICET-IAFE4 (Buenos Aires Argentina), 5University of California-Scripps Institution of Oceanography UC-

SIO5 (La Joya USA), 6Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais INPE (San Jose dos Campos Brasil), 7 Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas-Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero

CONICET-INIDEP3 (Mar del Plata Argentina), 8Universidade de São Paulo, USP (São Paulo Brasil), 9Dirección General Marítima Armada Colombiana.CIOH (Bogota Colombia) 10Dirección General Marítima Centro de

Investigaciones Oceanográficas e Hidrográficas.DIMAR-CIOH (Cartagena Colombia)

Climate change evaluated at marine time-series stations. The Antares Network an effort of the Americas in long

term studies.

Antares-Chloro GIN Marine Monitoring Networkhttp://www.antares.ws/

E. Santamaría-del-Angel1*, R. Millán-Núñez1, A. González-Silvera1 , S. Cerderia-Estrada2 ,F. Muller-Karger3, L. Lorenzoni6, A.I. Dogliotti4, R. Frouin5,M. Kampel6, V. Lutz7, M. Pompeu8, A.

Mercado-Santana1, M.L. Cañón-Paez9, and all Antares Members

Page 3: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

El Principio de MOBY:Si algo es fácil de medir…..será difícil de interpretar

Si algo es difícil de medir……será muy fácil de interpretar

Page 4: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime) observations. Chla data were derivate by SeaWiFS (1997-2010 OC4-v4) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present OC3M-v4.The data base was built based on 4 km monthly and yearly composites of the full sensor life, using the last algorithms and reprocessing for each sensor until June 2015.

We generated time series of remote sensing regular products  multisensor (SST, Chl a) with the principal goal to determine if these different sites show evidence of climate change impacts. Data from the following sensors were used: CZCS, OCTS, SeaWiFS, MODIS‐Aqua, MERIS VIIRS and AVHRR 

to produce multi‐year time‐series. 

Page 5: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Multisensor series were develop by SST we generated a local linear model using a monthly AVHRR observation like a dependent variable and MODIS-Aqua SST like a independent variable

AVHRR = b0 + b1(MODIS-Aqua) (eq. 1).

In almost all approaches statistics like Min, Max, Mean, St.Dev. and Median Point-value were calculated in a 3 x 3 pixel window

1980 1990 2000 2010

Years

27.2

27.6

28

28.4

28.8

29.2

SS

T

CartagenaAVHRRMODIS-Aqua

1980 1990 2000 2010

Years

16.4

16.8

17.2

17.6

18

18.4

18.8

SST

EnsenadaAVHRRMODIS-Aqua

Page 6: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Station AVHRR= b0 + b1 (MODIS) R‐Sq nHolbox AVHRR = - 1.48 + 1.05 (MODIS) 95.60% 90

Cartagena AVHRR = 8.26 + 0.701 (MODIS) 89.70% 90

Cariaco AVHRR = 7.61 + 0.711 (MODIS) 93.40% 90

Ubatuba AVHRR = 3.71 + 0.838 (MODIS) 92.50% 90

EPEA AVHRR = ‐ 2.09 + 1.04 (MODIS) 96.60% 89EGI AVHRR = 2.91 + 0.809 (MODIS) 91.60% 90

Concepción AVHRR = ‐ 1.36 + 1.15 (MODIS) 87.50% 90

Changos AVHRR = ‐ 0.961 + 1.08 (MODIS) 92.40% 90

IMARPE AVHRR = 4.13 + 0.803 (MODIS) 84.00% 90

La Libertad AVHRR = 7.77 + 0.654 (MODIS) 75.20% 90

Manta AVHRR = 4.35 + 0.824 (MODIS) 80.70% 90

Tumaco AVHRR = 13.3 + 0.5 (MODIS) 48.30% 90

Ensenada AVHRR = 0.473 + 0.984 (MODIS) 93.30% 90

Page 7: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

To visualize any interannual pattern: The anual multisensor SST average wassubtracted to each station (Thus filtering the seasonal variation)

Cluster analisys between stations was made using a Pearson CorrelationCoefficients such as similary distances and Average Linkage were calculated.Cleary we see 4 groups (80 % similarity)

CariacoEPEAUbatubaCartagenaHolbox

49.40

66.27

83.13

100.00

Variables

Sim

i la

rit

yDendrogram

Average Linkage, Correlation Coefficient Distance

Page 8: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Cartagena, Ubatuba show a clear SST increase with time

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

27.2

27.6

28

28.4

28.8

SST

Annual SSTCartagena

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

22.4

22.8

23.2

23.6

24

24.4

24.8

SST

Annual SSTUbatuba

all the Atlantic stations show one “cool period” around 2000 

Page 9: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Only EPEA show a similar increase tendency

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

12

13

14

15

16

17

SST

Annual SSTEPEA

all the Atlantic stations show one “cool period” around 2000 

Page 10: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

26.6

26.8

27

27.2

27.4

SST

Annual SSTHolbox

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

25.6

26

26.4

26.8

27.2

27.6

SST

Annual SSTCariaco

Holbox and Cariaco did not show this trend

all the Atlantic stations show one “cool period” around 2000 

Page 11: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

3 groups (80 % similarity)

EnsenadaTumacoMantaLa LibertadIMARPEConcepcion

56.79

71.19

85.60

100.00

Variables

Si m

ila

rit

y

Dendrogram

Average Linkage, Correlation Coefficient Distance

Page 12: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

12.8

13.2

13.6

14

14.4

14.8

15.2SS

T

Annual SSTConcepcion

Not trend is showAs in the Atlantic stations, all the pacific stations show one “cool period” around 2000 

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

16

17

18

19

20

SST

Annual SSTEnsenada

Page 13: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

SST

Annual SSTIMARPE

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

SST

Annual SSTLibertad

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

23

24

25

26

SST

27Annual SST

Manta

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

23

24

25

26

27

SST

Annual SSTManta

Not trend is show

As in the Atlantic stations, all the pacific stations show one “cool period” around 2000 

Page 14: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

SST b1 tcal tcrit trend nHolbox 0.00303 0.82 2.03693 33

Cartagena 0.020247 4.04 2.03693 ** 33Cariaco 0.008841 1.14 2.03693 33Ubatuba 0.030807 4.56 2.03693 ** 33EPEA 0.04683 3.44 2.03693 ** 33

Concepcion ‐0.00161 ‐0.2 2.03693 33IMARPE ‐0.02925 ‐1.72 2.03693 33Libertad ‐0.0067 ‐0.39 2.03693 33Manta ‐0.00271 ‐0.22 2.03693 33Tumaco ‐0.00413 ‐0.48 2.03693 33Ensenada ‐0.00206 ‐0.2 2.03693 33

Page 15: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55C

hla

Annual ChlaCartagena

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Chl

a

Annual ChlaUbatuba

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Chl

a

Annual ChlaEPEA

Not trend is show

the cool period around 2000 is a oligotrophic period 

?

Page 16: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

Chl

a

Annual ChlaCariaco

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

2.4C

hla

Annual ChlaHolbox

Not trend is show

the cool period around 2000 is a oligotrophic  period 

?33 years SST17 years Chla

Page 17: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

0

4

8

12

16C

hla

Annual ChlaIMARPE

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

2.4

2.8

Chl

a

Annual ChlaLibertad

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

Chl

a

Annual ChlaManta

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6C

hla

Annual ChlaTumaco

Posible tendencia

Posible tendencia

El periodo frio del 2000 coincide con un pico de chla

?

Page 18: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

Chl

a

Annual ChlaEnsenada

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

4

6

8

10

Chl

a

Annual ChlaConcepcion

Posible tendencia

?

Page 19: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

17 years chla

Predictor b1 tcal tcrit trend n Holbox 0.02423 1.23 2.12 17

Cartagena ‐0.00567 ‐1.74 2.12 17Cariaco 0.01715 1 2.12 17Ubatuba 0.00139 0.16 2.12 17EPEA 0.02107 1.37 2.12 17

Concepcion 0.05836 0.055 2.12 17IMARPE 0.3231 2.4 2.12 ** 17Libertad 0.03557 1.88 2.12 17Manta 0.03872 2.37 2.12 ** 17Tumaco ‐0.00645 ‐0.61 2.12 17Ensenada 0.02547 1.36 2.12 17

Page 20: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Hechos

• SST solo presento tendencia en algunas estaciones del AtlanticoCartagena Ubatuba y EPEA•Chla solo presento tendencia en algunas estaciones del PacificoIMARPE MANTA•SST 33 años•Chla 17 años

Page 21: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Two questions about this cool event arise: 

‐Is our 33 year‐long SST time series long enough to detect an climate change or global clange?

‐ If this cool event is a anomalous condition could be use our 33year‐long SST time series long enough to detect an anomalous condition?

Considerations:

‐ This cool event can be the result of a higher variability in time (decadal?)

‐ Our SST series is only 33 years long  

To test this approach, we took Ensenada (without trend)  and Cartagena (with trend)

Page 22: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

"El Cambio Global se refiere a las modificaciones del medio ambiente mundial (incluyendo alteraciones del

clima, la productividad de la tierra, los océanos u otros recursos hídricos, la química atmosférica y los

sistemas ecológicos) que pueden alterar la capacidad de la tierra para sustentar la vida".*

*Definición adoptada por el Instituto Interamericano para la Investigación del Cambio Global (IAI).

¿Qué es el Cambio Global?

Page 23: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Variaciones climáticas estacionales o interanuales.Cambios climáticos en décadas o siglos.

Disminución del ozono estratosférico, radiación UV, y química atmosférica.

Cambios en la superficie de la tierra y en los ecosistemas marinos y terrestres.

Dimensiones Humanas del Cambio Global.

Dentro del Cambio Global se incluyen temas como:

Page 24: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

¿Cuál es la diferencia entre variabilidad climática y el cambio climático?

La Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático (CMNUCC), en su Artículo 1, define el

cambio climático como:"cambio del clima atribuido directa o indirectamente a actividades humanas que alteran la composición de la

atmósfera mundial, y que viene a añadirse a la variabilidad natural del clima observada durante períodos de tiempo

comparables" (IPCC, 2001).

Page 25: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Por tanto:la variabilidad del clima se refiere a variaciones

provocadas de manera naturalcambio climático es atribuible a la influencia de

actividades humanas en unión con la variabilidad climática.

Page 26: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

La energía recibida del Sol calienta la superficie de la Tierra y los océanos. A su vez, la superficie de la Tierra emite su energía de vuelta hacia la atmósfera y hacia el espacio

exterior en forma de ondas térmicas conocidas como radiación de onda larga (radiación infrarroja).

Page 27: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)
Page 28: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Vapor de agua (H2O)Bióxido de carbono (CO2)

Metano (CH4)Óxido nitroso (N2O)

Ozono (O3)

Los gases de efecto invernadero naturales son

Page 29: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Por su parte, los gases de efecto invernadero generados por las actividades del hombre son

Bióxido de carbono (CO2) Metano (CH4)

Óxido nitroso (N2O) Perfluorometano (CF4) y perfluoroetano (C2F6)

Hidrofluorocarbonos (nombres comerciales: HFC-23, HFCS-134a, HFC-152a)

Hexafluoruro de azufre (SF6)

Page 30: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

El efecto invernadero

es un fenómeno

atmosférico natural que

permite mantener la

temperatura del planeta al

retener parte de la energía

proveniente del Sol.

Page 31: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

El bióxido de carbono (CO2) proviene principalmente de la quema de combustibles fósiles (petróleo, carbón, gas natural, o sus derivados) en la producción de energía, en el funcionamiento de los procesos industriales,

y en su uso en el sector transporte; también proviene de los procesos industriales [como la producción de cemento, cal, sosa, amoniaco,

carburos de silicio o de calcio, acero, y aluminio], la deforestación que provoca la descomposición de la materia orgánica y de la quema de la

biomasa vegetal.

De dónde provienen los gases de efecto invernadero ?

Page 32: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

El metano (CH4) proviene de la agricultura (p.ej. cultivo de arroz), el uso del gas natural [el

metano es un componente del gas natural], la descomposición de los residuos en los rellenos

sanitarios, y del hato ganadero.

Brasil, país ganadero de primera línea, presenta el mayor nivel de emisión de metano de la región y es uno de los

mayores emisores de metano (CH4) del mundo. La agricultura genera la mayoría

de las emisiones de metano de la región.

Entonces, los procesos industriales y la quema de combustibles fosiles son los únicos

culpables de los gases de efecto invernadero ?

Page 33: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

El dióxido de carbono ha ido incrementándose en la atmósfera desde 280 partes por millón (ppm)

en la época pre-industrial (1850) a 370 ppm en la

actualidad, como consecuencia de la

actividad industrial por la combustión de

combustibles fósiles (carbón, petróleo, gas natural) y por la tala de

árboles.

Page 34: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)
Page 35: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)
Page 36: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)
Page 37: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Existen diversas evidencias del cambio climático, aunque la principal es el aumento de la temperatura promedio de la

atmósfera: La temperatura superficial media aumentó unos 0.6ºC (± 0.2°C)

durante el Siglo XX. El incremento de la temperatura se manifestóprincipalmente entre 1910 y 1945; y entre 1976 y 2000. Las

temperaturas nocturnas y en tierra firme son las que más acusaron dicho aumento. (IPCC, 2001)

¿Cuáles son las pruebas que se tienen del cambio climático?

Otra evidencia es la disminución en la extensión del hielo y la capa

de nieve sobre la superficie terrestre:

Datos de satélites muestran que es muy probable que haya habido disminuciones de un 10 % en la extensión de la capa de nieve

desde finales de los años 60 (IPCC, 2001).

Page 38: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Es real el cambio climático?A causa de las emisiones de los gases de efecto invernadero, se espera que

las temperaturas aumenten considerablemente durante este siglo,

lo que tendrá tanto consecuencias positivas como negativas.

Los efectos del cambio climático diferirán de unos lugares a otros siendo

muy difícil, por no decir imposible, prever su impacto con exactitud.

En cualquier caso, son muchos los sistemas físicos y biológicos en todo el mundo que ya se han visto afectados

por el cambio climático, fundamentalmente debido a incrementos de temperatura.

Page 39: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Los datos de los mareógrafos muestran que el nivel medio del mar en el mundo subió entre 0.1 y 0.2 metros durante el siglo XX (IPCC, 2001). También hay algunas evidencias de cambio en el comportamiento de

algunas especies animales y vegetales (IPCC, 2001).

Otra prueba más es que el nivel medio del mar en todo el mundo ha subido y el contenido de calor de los océanos ha aumentado:

Page 40: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)
Page 42: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)
Page 43: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)
Page 44: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12

C lo r o f i la S u p e r f ic ia l in s i t um g C h la m -3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

11

12

Clo

rofi

laS

ate

l ita

lm

gC

hla

m- 3

Cruceros totales La alta variabilidad que mostraron los datos puede ser debido al

efecto de la calentamiento global

?

Page 45: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)
Page 46: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Two questions about this cool event arise: 

‐Is our 33 year‐long SST time series long enough to detect an climate change or global clange?

‐ If this cool event is a anomalous condition could be use our 33year‐long SST time series long enough to detect an anomalous condition?

Considerations:

‐ This cool event can be the result of a higher variability in time (decadal?)

‐ Our SST series is only 33 years long  

To test this approach, we took Ensenada (without trend)  and Cartagena (with trend)

Page 47: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Not trend

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

16

17

18

19

20SS

T

Annual SSTEnsenada

The Blob

Page 48: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

“In situ” sea surface temperature at La Jolla Pier, California Scripps Institution of Oceanography 1916‐present at 32° 52.0' N, ‐117° 15.5' W 

Personnel from the Stephen Birch Aquarium‐Museum at Scripps take daily temperature and salinity samples from the end of the Scripps Pier at the sea surface and a depth of about 5 meters. The proximity of Scripps Pier to the deep waters at the head of La Jolla submarine canyon results in data quite representative of oceanic conditions. 

http://shorestation.ucsd.edu/active/index_active.html#lajollastation

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1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

15

16

17

18

19

20Te

mpe

ratu

re

Ensenada and SIOEnsenadaSIO

The blob

50 years

Page 50: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

PDO index, derived as the leading PC of monthly SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean, poleward of 20N. The monthly mean global average SST anomalies are removed to separate this pattern of variability from any "global warming" signal that may be present in the data.

For more details, see:

Zhang, Y., J.M. Wallace, D.S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004-1020.

Mantua, N.J. and S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace, and R.C. Francis,1997:

A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, pp. 1069-1079.

(available via the internet at url: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/abst.PDO.html

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest)

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO)

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-4

-2

0

2

4Te

mpe

ratu

reEnsenada, SIO, pdo

EnsenadaSIOPDO

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Cartagena with trend

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

27.2

27.6

28

28.4

28.8SS

T

Annual SSTCartagena

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The HadSST and NOAA OI SST datasets are used to compute Atlantic SST anomalies north of the equator. Anomalies are computed by month using the climotological time period 1951-2000. Both smoothed and unsmoothed data sets are available.

More Information:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/AMO/

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

Page 54: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

ZTem

pera

ture

Cartagena and AMOCartagenaAMO

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

ZTem

pera

ture

Cartagena and AMOCartagenaAMO

Aprox 68 años33 años

Page 55: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Hechos• 33 años no son suficientes para ver fluctuaciones de mas alto periodo• Estas deben de ser aproximadamente de 180 años (3*60)•La serie de tiempo mas larga con datos in situ puede ser la de SIO que tiene actualmente 98 años•PDO y AMO pueden ser una buena aproximación•Sin embargo solo sirven para el Pacifico y el Atlántico norte•Además de que se complementa con datos SST

Y el resto de las estaciones que están en centro América-Sur América tanto en Pacifico como en el Atlántico.?

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Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) v4

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v4

The Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) dataset is a global monthly sea surface temperature dataset derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Dataset (ICOADS). It is produced on a 2°× 2° grid with spatial completeness enhanced using statistical methods. This monthly analysis begins in January 1854 continuing to the present and includes anomalies computed with respect to a 1971–2000 monthly climatology. The newest version of ERSST, version 4, is based on optimally tuned parameters using the latest datasets and improved analysis methods.

Page 57: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)
Page 58: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-4

-2

0

2

4ZT

empe

ratu

re

holbox and errsstZholboxZersst

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

ZTem

pera

ture

Cartagena and errsstZCartagenaZersst

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-4

-2

0

2

4

ZTem

pera

ture

ubatuba and errsstZubatubaZersst

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-4

-2

0

2

4

ZTem

pera

ture

cariaco and errsstZcariacoZersst

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

ZTem

pera

ture

epeaand errsstZepeaZersst

68 años aproximados

Page 59: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-2

0

2

4ZT

empe

ratu

re

imarpe and errsstZimarpeZersst

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-4

-2

0

2

4

ZTem

pera

ture

libertad and errsstZlibertadZersst

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-4

-2

0

2

4

ZTem

pera

ture

manta and errsstZmantaZersst

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-4

-2

0

2

4

ZTem

pera

ture

tumaco and errsstZtumacoZersst

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-4

-2

0

2

4

ZTem

pera

ture

concepcion and errsstZconcepcionZersst

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year

-4

-2

0

2

4

ZTem

pera

ture

ensenada and errsstZensenadaZersst

68 años aproximados

Page 60: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)
Page 61: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

Each  Antares station represents a specific biogeographic and 

biogeochemical domain or province.

Are monthly or bi‐monthly samples in only one station representative? 

Page 62: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

0.1 1 10

Chl-asat

0.1

1

10

matchupSeawifslinea

modismeris

multisensor(SEA-MOD-MER)multisensor(SEA-MOD)rpearson n Statistical

validationerror

SeaWiFS 0.78 257 Very high 0.22MODIS 0.76 192 Very high 0.24MERIS 0.70 181 Very high 0.30

MULTISENSOR 0.79 275 Very high 0.21

But…..These approach  can be extrapolated to the in situ data?

If we made the match‐up analysisconsidering the different ocean color sensor

We see a very similar pattern that NASA and ESA report to another areas>70 % in association or a error of 30% are  in the Global  Range of  this corporations ??

We need to acquire more in situdata to  try to reduce this global error

Match-up Analysis

Page 63: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

La alarma del calentamiento global se disfraza de ciencia pero no es ciencia es propaganda

No hay evidencias científicas que el calentamiento global se asocie con el efecto de los gases de efecto de invernadero antropogenicos

El Co2 ha sufrido cambios en el pasado antes de la era industrial

2014 en el polo sur el grosor de la capa de hielo marco un record historico siendo la mas gruesa reportada

El calentamiento global no es una teoría, es un principio moral de nuestra generación

Los defensores del calentamiento global-cambio climático ya no aceptan ningún argumento científico en su contra

Page 64: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)

El calentamiento global no es una teoría, es un principio moral de nuestra generación

Los defensores del calentamiento global-cambio climático ya no aceptan ningún argumento científico en su contra

Page 65: PowerPoint Presentation · 2015-12-04 · SST data were derivate by the AVHRR (1981-2009 best-sst-day algorithms pathfinder ver. 5) and MODIS-Aqua (2002-present sst-11 µ-daytime)