POVERTY AND PROGRESS IN NEW YORK II - Manhattan Institute

C E N T E R F O R S T A T E A N D L O C A L L E A D E R S H I PA T T H E M A N H A T T A N I N S T I T U T E

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POVERTY AND PROGRESS IN NEW YORK II:

Crime, Welfare Enrollment, and Economic Conditions Six Months into

the de Blasio Administration

L

Stephen EideSenior Fellow, Manhattan Institute

Cover image: New York City Subway Map © Metropolitan Transportation Authority. Used with permission.

Poverty and Progress in New York II

exeCutive SummaRy

New York City’s resurgence over the past three decades has been characterized by greater fiscal stability, less crime, less

dependence on cash welfare, and sustained economic growth. In many ways, these gains have been shared across all

neighborhoods, rich and poor alike. However, because income gains, measured proportionately, have accrued more

greatly to affluent households, Mayor Bill de Blasio has asserted that New York has become a “tale of two cities”—and

has pledged to improve incomes and quality of life for the least well-off.

This paper, the second installment in the Manhattan Institute’s Poverty and Progress in New York series, seeks to gauge

the extent to which the Mayor’s policies are improving conditions in the city’s poorest neighborhoods.

Neighborhoods examined are: Mott Haven and Hunts Point (Bronx Community Districts 1 and 2); Brownsville, Coney

Island, and East New York (Brooklyn Community Districts 16, 13, and 5); East Harlem and Central Harlem (Manhattan

Community Districts 11 and 10); Elmhurst and Jackson Heights (Queens Community Districts 4 and 3); and Stapleton

(Staten Island Community District 1).

Key Findings

• Sixmonths into thedeBlasioadministration,manycategoriesof crimearedown,but shootingsareup8

percent. It is unknown whether the latter indicates a temporary aberration—or is a sign that New York City’s

decades-long crime decline has plateaued or reversed course.

• Inalltheprecinctsdrivingtheincreaseinshootings,theusageof“stop,question,andfrisk”isdowndramatically,

by as much as 99 percent on a year-over-year basis. The police department has been able, in past years, to drive

crime down while also relying less on this tactic. However, the possibility of a correlation between fewer stops and

more crime merits close scrutiny; the recent drop in stops—from the last year of the Bloomberg administration

and the first year of the de Blasio administration—is much more dramatic than previous years’ declines.

• Thecitywideshootinguptickreflectsnotonlycertainprecinctsbecomingmoredangerousbutalsootherprecincts

not becoming significantly safer.

• Fouroutofthetenpoorestneighborhoodsinthefiveboroughssawshootingsincrease,accountingforafull

three-quarters of the increase citywide.

• Forthefirstsixmonthsof2014,welfareenrollmentisgenerallydown,bothcitywideandinthetenpoorest

neighborhoods in the five boroughs. This goes for all three major programs: Cash Assistance, Supplemental

Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and Medicaid.

• IntheBronx,thecity’spoorestborough,unemploymentisdownwhilejobgrowthandpermittingactivityare

up, compared with the first six months of Mayor Bloomberg’s final year in office.

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about the authoR

Stephen D. Eide is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute’s Center for State and Local Leadership. He edits

PublicSectorInc.org (@PubSectorInc), a project of the Manhattan Institute, and is also a contributor to the site. His

work focuses on public administration, public finance, political theory, and urban policy. He was previously a senior

research associate at the Worcester Regional Research Bureau, and holds a bachelor’s degree from St. John’s College

inSantaFe,N.M.,andaPh.D.inpoliticalphilosophyfromBoston College.


Introduction

Crime

Welfare Enrollment

Economic Conditions

Conclusion

Endnotes

CONTENTS1

1

3

5

7

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INTRODUCTION

Poverty and Progress in New York II provides an early assess-ment of how much progress Mayor Bill de Blasio has made on his pledge to “end the tale of two cities.” It examines crime, welfare enrollment, and economic conditions in the poorest

neighborhoods in the five boroughs.

CRIME

In the first half of 2014, murders and crime overall are down citywide, but shootings are up (Figure 1). The New York Police Department (NYPD) claims that the uptick in shootings, at this early stage, should not be cause for alarm.1 Mayor

Stephen Eide

poveRty and pRogReSS in new yoRk ii: CRime, welfaRe

enRollment, and eConomiC ConditionS

Six monthS into the de blaSio adminiStRation

% Change, Year to Date (2013–14)

Murder -10.5%

Rape -9.9%

Robbery -11.1%

Felony Assault 1.4%

Burglary 4.8%

Total Crimes -2.9%

Shooting Victims 10.3%

Shooting Incidents 8.1%

Figure 1: Crime in New York City, January–June 2014

Source: NYPD (through June 29, 2014)

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Figure 2: Stops and Murders, 2002–2013

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Mu

rder

s

Sto

ps

Stops Murders

Source: NYPD and NYCLU.org

The possibility that shootings, in particular, have in-creased because of fewer stops is an especially serious charge, given that the tactic removed thousands of guns off the streets, including some used in crimes. Only 397 guns were recovered last year, compared with 819 in 2011, according to the NYPD and New York Civil Liberties Union (NYCLU). Crit-ics of stop and frisk point out that restrictions on

Bloomberg saw murders rise four times, including during his first year in office,2 despite declining to record lows by the end of his third term. Annual shootings increased five times under Bloomberg.3

Questions have also been raised about whether the recent shooting spike was caused by restrictions placed on the NYPD’s use of the “stop, question, and frisk” tactic.4 At one point the NYPD claimed to be investigating this question,5 but more recently it said that there is “almost no direct correlation.”6 For years, stop, question, and frisk was central to the NYPD’s proactive policing strategy, which focused on preventing crimes before they occurred. Usage grew dramatically over the last decade, peaking in 2011 (Figure 2), before beginning to decline during the final Bloomberg years.

Shootings Stops

Precinct January–June, 2014

January–June, 2013

# change % change January–June, 2014

January–June, 2013

# change % change

69 (Canarsie) 21 6 15 250% 19 2,260 -2,241 -99%

47 (Northeast Bronx) 29 14 15 107% 76 1,106 -1,030 -93%

75 (East New York) 33 24 9 38% 84 2,247 -2,163 -96%

67 (East Flatbush) 31 23 8 35% 277 2,093 -1,816 -87%

25 (East Harlem) 9 2 7 350% 128 267 -139 -52%

46 (Morris Heights) 23 16 7 44% 145 546 -401 -73%

City 521 482 39 8% 27,497 157,876 -130,379 -83%


Figure 3: Change in Stops among Precincts with Significant Shooting Rate Increases, January–June, 2013 v. 2014


# Change % Change

2011–12 -152,813 -22%

2012–13 -341,060 -64%

January–June 2013 v. January–June 2014 -130,379 -83%

Figure 4: Annual Decline in Stops, 2011–14


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the tactic did not prevent the NYPD from driving down crime in both 2011–12 and 2012–13.7 In 2013, there were 335 murders, the fewest since the early 1960s. (Murders, unlike shootings, are down in 2014, too.)

At the same time, all the precincts contributing most to the city’s higher shooting rate have seen sig-nificant drops in stops (Figure 3).

It should also be noted that, expressed as a percent-age, the recent decline in stop, question, and frisk (2013–14) has been much more dramatic than the decline during the end of Mayor Bloomberg’s term (Figure 4). Just because a 25 percent decline in stops failed to cause crime to rise does not mean that the 83 percent decrease from last year to this year will have no harmful effects. It is also conceiv-able that crime could have fallen further were stop, question, and frisk not curtailed.

The uptick in shootings should be understood as reflecting both a rise in certain areas and insuf-ficient decline in others. Throughout New York’s long crime decline, good news citywide frequent-ly masked precinct-level spikes, as stats reflecting increased crime in certain precincts were out-weighed by even greater decreases elsewhere. Such offsetting precincts were often high-crime areas; crime numbers in safe areas were too low to exert much pull on the overall stats. For example, in 2002, murders in Precinct 47 in the north Bronx (one of 2014’s problem precincts) rose 41 percent over the previous year (17 to 24). But murders declined 36 percent (22 to 14) in Precinct 32 in Harlem and 39 percent (26 to 16) in Browns-ville. As a consequence of these and other paral-lel changes, murders in 2002 fell 10 percent city-wide. Such countervailing pressure is absent, for shootings, in 2014.

Public safety poses a special challenge for the de Blasio administration, in light of its professed com-mitment to “end the tale of two cities.” Many of the city’s poorest neighborhoods, said to have been left behind during New York City’s revival over the last two decades, rank among its most dangerous.

Figures 5 and 6 show the ten poorest community districts in the five boroughs and their year-to-date crime changes. Four out of the ten saw an increase in shooting incidents, accounting for three-quar-ters (29 of 39) of the citywide increase in the first half of 2014.

WELFARE ENROLLMENT

During his mayoral campaign, then-candidate Bill de Blasio pledged, if elected, to “work relentlessly to expand enrollment for eligible households to income and food assistance programs, reduce bu-reaucratic barriers, and advocate for expanded support from the state and federal government.”8 Since taking office, Human Resources Adminis-tration (HRA) commissioner Steven Banks has waived federal work requirements for the Supple-mental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in order to “maximize[e] access” and stimulate the local economy.9 He has also worked to reduce bu-reaucratic obstacles that, he claims, prevent cash assistance from reaching qualifying individuals as “expeditiously” as possible, ramped up outreach efforts, and made it official HRA policy that wel-fare recipients may count enrollment in a four-year college program toward meeting their work requirements.10

The de Blasio administration does not advocate or envision a net increase in cash assistance enroll-ment, projecting a 12,000 decrease in monthly en-rollment, on average, for fiscal year 2015.11 HRA has launched a “comprehensive review of all policies and procedures” to “enable New Yorkers to remain off of the Cash Assistance caseload.” Banks has said that whatever growth may result from easier access to benefits will be offset by “more effective employ-ment programs that lead to stable jobs.”

In other words, despite reversing course from the Bloomberg administration’s approach to welfare, de Blasio seems not to expect enrollment numbers to trend differently. So far, this has been the case. In the first six months of 2014, citywide and in the poorest neighborhoods in the five boroughs, enrollment was generally down in all three of the city’s major social

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Murders Shooting Incidents

Community district Median household

income

Precinct(s) January–June 2014

January–June 2013

# Change % Change January–June 2014

January–June 2013

# Change % Change

Bronx #1 (Mott Haven)

$20,867 40 2 6 -4 -67% 19 15 4 27%

Bronx #2 (Hunts Point)

$20,867 41 0 1 -1 -100% 5 6 -1 -17%

Brooklyn #16 (Brownsville, Ocean Hill)

$27,166 73 8 6 2 33% 38 32 6 19%

Brooklyn #13 (Coney Island)

$29,712 60 4 5 -1 -20% 9 13 -4 -31%

Brooklyn #5 (East New York)

$31,986 75 7 6 1 17% 33 24 9 38%

Manhattan #11 (East Harlem)

$31,079 25 and 23 4 3 1 33% 17 7 10 143%

Manhattan #10 (Central Harlem)

$36,112 28and32 3 3 0 0% 11 17 -6 -35%

Queens #4 (Elmhurst, Corona)

$44,412 110 2 2 0 0% 0 2 -2 -100%

Queens #3 (Jackson Heights)

$46,119 115 2 2 0 0% 1 4 -3 -75%

Staten Island #1 (Stapleton)

$57,283 120 4 2 2 100% 10 11 -1 -9%

Source: NYPD

Figure 5: Change in Murders and Shootings, Poorest Neighborhoods in the Five Boroughs, 2013–14

Total Crime

Community district Median household

income

Precinct(s) January–June 2014

January–June 2013

# Change % Change

Bronx #1 (Mott Haven)

$20,867 40 731 864 -133 -15%

Bronx #2 (Hunts Point)

$20,867 41 822 752 70 9%

Brooklyn #16 (Brownsville, Ocean Hill)

$27,166 73 856 914 -58 -6%

Brooklyn #13 (Coney Island)

$29,712 60 630 605 25 4%

Brooklyn #5 (East New York)

$31,986 75 1776 1763 13 1%

Manhattan #11 (East Harlem)

$31,079 25 and 23 959 979 -20 -2%

Manhattan #10 (Central Harlem)

$36,112 28and32 935 980 -45 -5%

Queens #4 (Elmhurst, Corona)

$44,412 110 759 806 -47 -6%

Queens #3 (Jackson Heights)

$46,119 115 883 824 59 7%

Staten Island #1 (Stapleton)

$57,283 120 550 544 6 1%

Source: NYPD; “Total Crime” includes murder, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny, and grand larceny auto

Figure 6: Change in Total Crime, Poorest Neighborhoods in the Five Boroughs, 2013–14


5

welfare programs: Medicaid, SNAP, and Cash As-sistance (Figure 7, Figure 8, and Figure 9). ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

The Bronx is New York City’s poorest borough.12 Its job numbers and property values have grown over recent decades but at rates slower than the other boroughs (Figure 10 and Figure 11). Despite the Bronx’s density and proximity to Manhattan, gentrification has been slower to ar-rive than to Harlem and parts of Brooklyn. How-ever, that could be changing. A recent report by Ariel Property Advisors found that, during the first half of 2014, the South Bronx accounted for

Community District

January June #Change %Change

Bronx 1 58,827 54,965 -3,862 -6.6%

Bronx 2 30,795 28,553 -2,242 -7.3%

Brooklyn 5 92,189 85,221 -6,968 -7.6%

Brooklyn 13 48,892 46,595 -2,297 -4.7%

Brooklyn 16 47,254 43,879 -3,375 -7.1%

Manhattan 10 46,971 43,360 -3,611 -7.7%

Manhattan 11 55,550 52,224 -3,326 -6.0%

Queens 3 74,528 68,615 -5,913 -7.9%

Queens 4 78,804 73,073 -5,731 -7.3%

Staten Island 1 55,628 51,613 -4,015 -7.2%

City 2,932,388 2,715,330 -217,058 -7.4%

Source: Human Resources Administration (HRA)

Community District


Bronx 1 44,715 43,441 -1,274 -2.8%

Bronx 2 22,823 22,125 -698 -3.1%

Brooklyn 5 65,556 61,274 -4,282 -6.5%

Brooklyn 13 31,177 30,232 -945 -3.0%

Brooklyn 16 37,136 35,045 -2,091 -5.6%

Manhattan 10 34,764 33,824 -940 -2.7%

Manhattan 11 42,043 41,027 -1,016 -2.4%

Queens 3 30,973 29,150 -1,823 -5.9%

Queens 4 30,683 28,804 -1,879 -6.1%

Staten Island 1 37,668 36,184 -1,484 -3.9%

City 1,678,819 1,614,766 -64,053 -3.8%

Figure 8: SNAP Enrollment, January–June 2014

Source: HRA

Community District


Bronx 1 11,503 11,337 -166 -1.4%

Bronx 2 6,555 6,481 -74 -1.1%

Brooklyn 5 14,538 14,290 -248 -1.7%

Brooklyn 13 3,875 3,900 25 0.6%

Brooklyn 16 11,008 10,790 -218 -2.0%

Manhattan 10 7,638 7,642 4 0.1%

Manhattan 11 8,709 8,595 -114 -1.3%

Queens 3 3,210 2,997 -213 -6.6%

Queens 4 2,749 2,687 -62 -2.3%

Staten Island 1 9,533 9,127 -406 -4.3%

City 321,963 312,480 -9,483 -2.9%

Source: HRA

Figure 7: Medicaid Enrollment, January–June 2014

Figure 9: Cash Assistance Enrollment, January–June 2014

17.7% 19.2% 19.3% 21.0%

33.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Bronx Queens Brooklyn Manha�an Staten Island

Source: New York State Department of Labor (NYS DOL)

Figure 10: Job Growth by Borough, 1990-2014

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nearly half of the borough’s real-estate transac-tions (124 properties, $480 million). The Bronx also has 1.6 million square feet of retail devel-opment planned or under construction.13 The number of new building permits issued through-out the first six months of the year has been grad-

ually on the rise, too (Figure 12). Under Mayor de Blasio, economic conditions in the Bronx continued to trend positive, showing improvements over this period last year (Figure 13, Figure 14, and Figure 15).

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

490,000492,000494,000496,000498,000500,000502,000504,000506,000508,000510,000

January February March April May June

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e (%

)

Job

s

Jobs Unemployment Rate

Source: NYS DOL; data are not seasonally-adjusted

Figure 13: Bronx County, Jobs, and Unemployment Rate, January–June 2014

Bronx Manhattan Queens Brooklyn Staten Island

1994 $21,735 $115,686 $78,905 $61,920 $22,038

2004 $31,636 $167,675 $127,371 $101,293 $38,703

2014 $53,648 $339,531 $206,783 $200,326 $57,815

Change, 1994–2014 147% 193% 162% 224% 162%

Figure 11: Total Market Value by Borough, 1994–2014 (millions)

Source:NewYorkCityDepartmentofFinance

4,8005,0005,2005,4005,6005,8006,0006,2006,4006,600

Jan-Jun 2009 Jan-Jun 2010 Jan-Jun 2011 Jan-Jun 2012 Jan-Jun 2013 Jan-Jun 2014

New

Per

mit

s Is

sued

Source: New York City Department of Buildings

Figure 12: January–June Building Permit Issuance in the Bronx, 2009–2014


7

480,000

485,000

490,000

495,000

500,000

505,000

510,000

January February March April May June

Job

s

2014 Jobs 2013 Jobs

Source: NYS DOL

Figure 14: Bronx County Jobs, January–June 2013 v. January–June 2014

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

January February March April May JuneUn

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e (%

)

2014 Unemployment Rate 2013 Unemployment Rate

Source: NYS DOL; data are not seasonally-adjusted

Figure 15: Bronx County Unemployment Rate, January 2013 v. January 2014

CONCLUSION

Conditions under the de Blasio administration, after its first six months, appear broadly similar to those inherited under the Bloomberg administra-tion. Judged simply on the raw data on crime, wel-fare, and economic conditions, it would be impos-sible to determine which mayor was in power.

Stated differently, if the de Blasio administration has sought to improve life in New York’s poor neighbor-

hoods—whether measured by income, public safe-ty, education, or other metrics—it has yet to show progress. The administration has, however, initiated a number of key new policies regarding, in particu-lar, eligibility for public assistance, housing, and ed-ucation. In future installments, this series will track the extent to which such policies are reflected in the critical socio-economic indicators under scrutiny.

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endnoteS

1 Azi Paybarah, “Bratton on the NYPD’s ‘Summer All Out’ program,” Capital New York, July 7, 2014. Police Commissioner

Bratton: “So far this year, there has been an increase in the number of shooting incidents but I’d point out, going back

to 1993, the overall trend is down and I would anticipate, based on that experience, that going forward in this year

we would continue to see a decrease.... I do not anticipate at the end of the year to have an increase, but if we do I

don’t think it’s going to be so significant as to be of concern or that the sky is falling or that the good old bad days are

coming back again.... This is an incredibly safe city and remains so. I know there’s a lot of attention paid to the increase

in shootings—that the city’s in crisis ... [that] this is starting to get out of control. Not at all... This is nothing new. As

you can see, in years past we’ve had years homicides went up, years when shootings went up. The city didn’t fall

apart. It wasn’t the end of the world. We addressed it and the next year it went down.... So, my anticipation is that the

continuing overall crime decline in the city will continue.”22002–03,2005–06,2007–08,2009–10.32004-05,2005–06,2007–08,2009–10,2010–11.4 “New Yorkers deserve to live in a safe city. The rash of gun violence this weekend, leaving three dead and many others

wounded, should serve as a wake-up call to Mayor de Blasio and his administration.... These shootings contradict

two decades of crime reduction in our city and make the strongest case for bringing back stop, question, and frisk.”

CouncilmemberEricUlrich,quotedinLenLevitt,“WorriedAboutCrime?JustFollowtheNumbers,”am New York, July

7,2014.“Stop-and-FriskandRisk,”New York Daily News, August 16, 2014. Will Bredderman, “Jumaane Williams to

Media:Don’tLinkStop-and-FrisktoShootingSpike,”New York Observer, June 30, 2014. Thomas Repetto: “We don’t

have a citywide epidemic like we did 20 years ago, but we’re having problems in pockets of the city such as the housing

projects.... I want to hear a firm declaration that proactive policing will be employed.... Proactive policing means stop

the criminal before he can commit a crime.” Tina Moore, “Homicides Are Down, but Shootings Are Up Citywide over

2013,” New York Daily News, June 9, 2014. State Sen. Martin Golden: “Thank God these guys are bad shots and thank

God for our trauma rooms that keep these [victims] alive. If we don’t do stop-and-frisk, there will be more shootings

andtherewillbemoredeath.”DanaSauchelli,FrankRosario,andBruceGolding,“15PeopleShotinLessthan12

hours in NYC,” New York Post, June 29, 2014.5PervaizShallwani,“NYPDStudiesFrisk-DeclineConsequences,”Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2014.6 Yoni Bashan, “Bratton Says Gun Violence Remains Low,” Wall Street Journal,August18,2014.7“Stop-and-FriskDuringtheBloombergAdministration(2002–2013),”NewYorkCivilLibertiesUnion,August2014.8 “One New York, Rising Together,” Bill de Blasio for Mayor, July 2013, p. 45. 9“AccordingtotheUSDepartmentofAgriculture,every$1ofSNAPassistancecreates$1.80ofeconomicactivity.”

“HumanResourcesAdministrationCommissionerBanksAnnouncesReformstoFightPovertyandHunger,Prevent

Homelessness, Improve Access to Employment, Reduce Unnecessary Bureaucracy, Address Staff Workload, and Avoid

FinancialPenaltiesfortheCity,”pressrelease,NewYorkCityHumanResourcesAdministration,May19,2014.10“StevenBanksTestimony,2015ExecutiveBudgetHearingJointHearingoftheNewYorkCityCouncilFinanceand

General Welfare Committees,” May 19, 2014, pp. 4–5. 11 “In 2015, 350,297 persons are projected to receive cash assistance on average each month, a decrease of 12,157

fromtheprojected2014average.”“TheCityofNewYorkExecutiveBudgetFiscalYear2015,”OfficeofManagement

andBudget,May8,2014,p.224.12 On median household income in the five boroughs, see “Poverty and Progress in New York I: Conditions in New York

City’sPoorestNeighborhoods,”ManhattanInstitute,CivicReportno.88(June2014),table4.13 “Bronx 2014 Mid-Year Sales Report,” Ariel Property Advisors, July 2014.

The Manhattan Institute’s Center for State and Local Leadership (CSLL) promotes

promising new approaches to reform of state and local government. CSLL works on a broad

range of issues, including public sector reform (specifically of pensions and health benefits),

education reform, prisoner reentry, policing, public housing, infrastructure, immigration, and

public service delivery. By spotlighting new ideas, and providing the research and proposals

to inform creative new policies, the CSLL hopes to lay the groundwork for an environment

in which commerce, employment, and a rich civic life can flourish.

The CSLL operates across the country, working in states such as California, Illinois, and

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tools include regular writing and research reports by affiliated Manhattan Institute scholars

and senior fellows, along with public events and media appearances. The CSLL operates

www.PublicSectorInc.org, a website devoted to analysis of the implications—financial

and political—of the power wielded by public sector unions and allied elected officials.

The CSLL also annually selects and showcases the Manhattan Institute’s Urban Innovator

Award, which recognizes a state or local leader whose combination of policy creativity and

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fellowS

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POVERTY AND PROGRESS IN NEW YORK II - Manhattan Institute