KADARSAH

ResearcherClimate Division

Research and Development CentreMeteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG)

Jl.Angkasa I No.2 Kemayoran Jakarta Pusat 10720

INDONESIA

Tokyo Tech-UNESCO fellow (2006-2007)Project III: Comprehensive Numerical Techniques in Regional Hydro-Environment

Title: Application WRF to study on Rainfall Over IndonesiaSupervisor: Prof.Manabu Kanda

• Aldrian, Edvin. (2003), Simulations of Indonesian Rainfall with a Hierarchy of Climate Models, Dissertation of Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie, Universitas Hamburg•Harvey, L. O., K. R. Hammond, C. M. Lusk, and E. F. Mross, 1992: The application of signal detection theory to weather forecasting behavior. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 863–883.•Mason, S.J. And Graham, N.E. 1999. Conditional probabilities, Relative operating characteristics and relative operating levels. Weather and Forecasting 14:713-725•Wilks, D.S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. An Introduction.  Academic Press, San Diego, 467 pp.•IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2000: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.•IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881pp.•Mizuta, R., K. Oouchi, H. Yoshimura, A. Noda, K. Katayama, S. Yukimoto, M. Hosaka, S. Kusunoki, H. Kawai and M. Nakagawa, 2006: 20-km-mesh global climate simulations using JMA-GSM model -- mean climate states --. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 165-185

[Acknowledgements]

【 References 】

This program has been supported by Tokyo Institute of Technology and UNESCO

This poster is presented in The Tokyo Tech-UNESCO Fellows Symposium Tokyo Institute of Technology 10-11 December 2009

Climate Prediction

Climate Change Research

Current Activities

Wincube & LIDAR

Forecast Verification

BMKG

Introduction

Personal History2008-now : Researcher of BMKG2006-2007 : Tokyo Tech-UNESCO fellow ,KANDA Laboratory. Dept. of International Development Eng.

Tokyo Institute of Technology2006 : LAPAN, Bandung, Division of Climate Modeling, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Applications Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics And Space (LAPAN) 2006 : Graduated master degree from ITB, Geophysics and Meteorology Dept2003 : Graduate degree from ITB,Geophysics and Meteorology Dept

Experience in UNESCO Course

Research Achievement1.4th International Verification Methods Workshop, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland,4-10 June 20092.Spring School on Fluid Mechanics and Geophysics of Environmental Hazards, Institute for Mathematical Sciences of the National University of Singapore, Singapore,19 April-2 May 2009.3.Fall colloquium on the Physics of Weather & Climate : ‘Regional Weather Predictability and Modelling’, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste-Italy, 29 September – October 10 2008 4.Climate Field School (CFS) and Validation of ASEAN Regional Model, Surabaya-Indonesia, 11-13 August 20095.International Symposium on Equatorial Monsoon System , Bali-Indonesia, 16-17 June 2009

Model Statistik : HyBMG

Application ROC Curve for Verification

HyBMG model has skill to predict Indonesia rainfall for above-normal ( skill score=0.88 and below-normal ( skill score=0.52). HyBMG model prediction for above normal better than below normal

The ROC curve lie above the 45 degree line from the origin: the forecast system is skillful and the total area under the curve will be greater than 0.5

Wincube LIDARThe LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) principle is based on the scattering phenomenon of light. A Laser pulse is sent into the atmosphere and scattered by a target molecules or particles (clouds, dust, soot particles etc.).

The time for the light pulse to travel out to the target and back to the EZ LIDAR is thereby used to determine the range to the target. Different types of deliverables are assessed from the measured level of electrical signal using various dedicated post-treatment algorithms.

The light scattered backward is collected by an optical system and its intensity is measured by a photo-detector. The amount of the collected optical radiation is converted into an electronics signal and stored onto a computer.1. Wind profiles and 3D mapping of wind

2. Verification power curve3. Calibration model4. Initial site inspection5. Impact of vertical profile and turbulences

on turbine efficiency

Wincube functions:

The three main climate regions (monsoon,equatorial and local type),220 seasonal forecast area (without number) and 73 non seasonal forecast area

The rainfall climate of this region is potentially predictable on monthly and seasonal scales but only for limited and specific periods and regions. The study shows a using HyBMG model for predicition.

This study begins by using the projections of global warming with 20-km mesh model MRI. For present-day climate simulation, observed historical sea surface temperature by HadISST1 are prescribed to the model from 1979 to 2003. For the near future climate simulation from 2015 to 2039 and the end of 21th century climate simulation from 2075 to 2099, changes in the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) of SSTs projected by Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) are superposed to the detrended observed historical SST. Changes in MME of SSTs are evaluated by the difference between the 20th century simulations and future simulation of IPCC A1B emission scenario. Linear trend for future climate by CGCMs are taken into account. These settings are applied to each grid point and to each month. The results is the rainfall projected for the end of the 21st century increase around 20% than present and the zonal wind for future (2075-2099) projected decrease on December but increase on August.

Model:1. MRI model2. CSIRO-Mk3

My background is a Meteorologist and I work in the climate division, Research and Development Centre of BMKG (Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency).My research about: Climatology, climate change, and numerical modelling of phenomena meteorology.In our institution, my research subject which to pursue is:• Numerical Modelling of phenomena meteorology and algorithm for analysis• Numerical Forecasting of Environmental Changes in sea-atmosphere• Forecast verification• Indonesia climate change scenarios based on IPCC scenarios such as: A1, A2, B1, B2, A1B and A1F.

Activities with the Japanese communityResearch using supercomputer TSUBAME

Activities with the Tokyo tech-UNESCO fellowsActivities with the Kanda-laboratory member