Post Retirement Charts

8/14/2019 Post Retirement Charts

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MANAGING

POST-RETIREMENT

RISKS

A Guide toRetirementPlanning


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Publication Date: October 2008

This risk chart was prepared by a task orce o retirement planning experts. The views and opinions expressed are those o individual task orce

members and do not represent an ocial statement or position on behal o the Society o Actuaries or any organization with which they are

aliated. This chart is not intended to provide advice or specic individual situations and should not be construed to do so under any

circumstances. It has been created as an educational tool to provide general guidance. Individuals in need o advice or specic situations

should seek the services o a qualied proessional.

Copyright 2008 Society o Actuaries. All rights reserved.


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CONTENTS

Introduction

How to Use the Chart

Longevity Risk

Infation Risk

Interest Rate Risk

Stock Market Risk

Business RisksEmployment Risk

Public Policy Risks

Unexpected Health Care Needs & Costs

Lack o Available Facilities or Caregivers

Loss o Ability to Live Independently

Change in Housing Needs

Death o a Spouse

Other Change in Marital Status

Unoreseen Needs o Family Members

Bad Advice, Fraud or Thet



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MANAGING POST-RETIREMENTRISKS: A GUIDE TO RETIREMENT PLANNING 2

We live in an era marked by periods of economic uncertainty and volatility. At the same time increased responsibility has shited to individuals or securing their nancial well-

being in retirement. And with this added responsibility, retirees may be exposed to a variety o risks

that can aect them both as individuals and members o society.

Recognizing this growing trend towards individual responsibility and the risks that may be en-

countered, the Society o Actuaries (SOA) launched a broad research and inormation eort inthe late 1990s to raise awareness o post-retirement challenges and seek ways to address them.

As part o this ongoing eort, the SOA published an inormational chart in 2003 that explained

the risks o retirement and served as an educational tool to help individuals prepare or them. In

everyday language, the chart provided a comprehensive summary o the risks and complemented

other retirement planning material.

With the passage o time, the creators o the original chart recognized there would be value to

updating it with insights into recently introduced products, legislative changes and new issues con-

ronting retirees. As a result, the SOA is pleased to make available this new version.

In the ollowing pages youll nd discussions o key nancial risks that individuals may ace intheir retirement years and strategies or managing them. The risks described include issues related

to longevity, investments, health, loss o loved ones and more. We encourage you to amiliarize

yoursel with the chart, jot down notes as you read through it, and use it in combination with other

planning material. It is our hope that this inormation will not only lead to better-inormed decision-

making, but help individuals plan and enjoy a more rewarding retirement.



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HOW TO USE THE CHART

POST-RETIREMENT RISK: The chartdescribes 15 types o risk.

BACKGROUND: A generaldescription o the risk andits impact.

PREDICTABILITY: Is the riskpredictable or an individualor group and how dicult isit to orecast?

MANAGING THE RISK: Approachesto addressing the risk.

COMMENTS: Additionaldescription and insightsto the risk.



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Managing ones own retirement unds over a lietime has many pitalls, even with expert help. Nobody knows how long

the money must last.

Lie expectancy at retirement is an average, with about hal o retirees living longer and a ew living past 100. Planning

to live to a certain age is risky, and planning to live to the lie expectancy or someone their age will be inadequate or

about hal o retirees. In theory, retirees want to make sure their money will last a lietime without cutting back unnecessarilyon their liestyle. In practice, unexpected events may make this very dicult.

A licensed insurer is the only entity outside the government that can contractually guarantee to pay lietime income.

Financial products rom other rms could run out o money to pay income to a long-lived individual.

Besides longevity, the other risks listed below can cause a retiree to run out o money. Someone who lives many

years has greater exposure to these other risks.

Long lietimes are dicult to predict or individuals. Its easier to predict the percentage o a population with a long liethan to predict this or an individual. Wives outlive husbands in most cases.

Social Security, traditional pensions and payout annuities all promise to pay an individual a specied amount o income

or lie. They may also pay income ater death to the spouse or other named survivor. Some newer products can help

protect retirees against outliving their assets:

A reverse mortgage converts home equity into lifetime income, although administrative charges can be high.

Longevity insurance is an annuity that does not start paying benets until an advanced age such as 85.

This niche product may t into a careully designed nancial plan.

Managed payout plans, offered in several forms by nancial services rms, draw down ones assets gradually.

Income rom such plans either is not guaranteed or is guaranteed at a lower level than would be available rom a

payout annuity that has the same cost.

Payout annuities, also called immediate or income annuities, can be useful for retirees to purchase because

they maximize the amount of guaranteed lifetime income available from a sum of money. Deferred annuities

and variable annuities, normally purchased before retirement, are not discussed here.

Experts disagree about when annuitization is a good strategy. Disadvantages include losing control o assets, costs,

and inability to leave money to ones heirs. Annuities without infation protection are only partial protection against

living too long.

An annuity that seems unattractive to buy at retirement age may make sense later. Multiple annuity purchases can be

made over time to average interest rates inherent in their purchase prices. People generally should not annuitize all

their assets, but they may want to consider annuities in their overall retirement plan.

Financial projections can be very useul in retirement planning, but actual experience will dier. All retirees should

review their expected income needs and sources at least every ew years and adjust spending i necessary.

LONGEVITY RISK: OUTLIVING YOUR RETIREMENT RESOURCES

COMMEN

TS

MANAG

ING

THERISK

PREDICTABILITY

BACKGROUND



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Infation should be an ongoing concern or anyone living on a

xed income. In the recent era o relatively low infation, work-

ers may not remember the double-digit infation rates o 1947,

1974 or 1979-81. Even low rates o infation can seriously erode

the nancial well-being o retirees who live many years.

Social Security and other government retirement programs pay

benets that increase with infation, but many private pension

plans do not.

Average past infation can be calculated rom historical data, though

actual experience over a typical period o retirement may vary

widely. Past infation data can provide some help in estimating

retirement needs, but there is no guarantee that uture infation

will not be greater.

Many investors try to own some assets whose value may growin times o infation. However, this sometimes will trade infationrisk or investment risk. Common stocks have outperformed ination in the long

run, but are poor short-term hedges. The historicallyhigher returns rom stocks are not guaranteed and mayvary greatly during retirement years.

Ination-indexed Treasury bonds grow in value and providemore income as the Consumer Price Index goes up. Manyexperts say that retirees investments should include some othese securities.

Ination-indexed annuities, not widely used in the UnitedStates, adjust payments or infation up to a specied annuallimit. Annuities with a predened annual increase also are

available. These kinds o annuities cost more than xed-payment annuities with the same initial level o income.

Commodities and natural resources often rise in value duringlong-term infation, but may fuctuate widely in the short run.

Infation can be a major issue, especially as retirement

periods lengthen, and it is not highly predictable.

Retirees can set aside extra assets to permit a gradual increase

in income payments. Providing or expected infation one

way or another, though costly, is needed in any realistic plan

or managing resources in retirement.

Delaying receipt o Social Security will build up valuable

infation-indexed benets or retirees and spouses.

When housing values were increasing, homeowners seemed

to have a hedge against infation. Current and uture retirees

who expected to use their home equity as a source o retire-

ment income may be highly disappointed, especially i housing

values continue to decline.

INFLATION RISK

Lower interest rates tend to reduce retirementincome in several ways: Workers must save more to accumulate an

adequate retirement und. Retirees earn less spendable income on investments

such as CDs and bonds; any income reinvestedearns lower rates.

Payout annuities yield less income when long-terminterest rates are low at the time o purchase.

Long-term and short-term interest rates can vary

within a wide range. Underlying orces that drive

interest rates include expected infation, government

actions and business conditions.

Immediate annuities that provide xed income are

a way or retirees to ensure stable income despitechanges in interest rates, although infation will still

be a problem.

Investing in long-term bonds, mortgages or

dividend-paying stocks also oers protection

against lower interest rates, although the value

o these investments will fuctuate. The risk is

that rising interest rates will reduce the value o

such assets available to meet unexpected needs.

Long-term interest rates oten move up or down at

about the same rate as infation.

Higher real interest returns, above rates o infation,

usually make retirement more aordable. This

occurs when retirees assets include sizeable amountso interest-paying bonds, CDs, etc.

However, some retirees have adjustable-rate mortgages

or substantial consumer debt, so that higher inter-

est rates are an added burden. For these retirees, the

higher interest rates that accompany increased infation

may reduce their spendable income at a time when its

most needed.

INTEREST RATE RISK

COMMENTS

MANAGING

THERISK

PREDICTABILITY

BAC

KGROUND



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Stock market losses can seriously reduce ones retire-

ment savings. But common stocks have substantially

outperormed other investments over time, and thus

are oten recommended or retirees long-term

investments as part o a balanced investment

allocation strategy.

Individual stocks rise and all based on the outlook or the

stock market and the specic company. Individual stocks

are more volatile than a diversied portolio.

Stock index unds are diversied, and usually achieve

slightly above-average investment returns, but they still

are exposed to the ups and downs o the stock market.

Stock market investors should diversiy widely amonginvestment classes and individual securities, and beprepared to absorb possible losses. Because such lossesmay take many years to recover, older employees andretirees should be especially careul to limit their stockmarket exposure.

Hedge unds may oer some protection, but they canbe complex and have high expense charges.

Some nancial products let an individual invest in stocks

and guarantee against loss o principal. However, risk

charges and other expenses may be high and the nancial

rm may limit losses by shiting most unds to bonds.

Younger workers can aord to take more risks because

they have time to make up short-term losses and can

postpone retirement. Older individuals should allocate

a smaller proportion o assets to the stock market.

Life-cycle or target funds gradually shift some of

their assets out o stocks as the individual gets older.

When signicant personal assets are in company stock,

the risk o losing ones job is compounded by possible

loss o savings i the company does poorly or goes out

o business. Even i the company appears strong, its

saer to diversiy those assets among other investments.

STOCK MARKET RISK

COM

MENTS

MANAGING

THERISK

PREDICTABILITY

BAC

KGROUND

Loss o retirement unds can occur i: An employer pension plan sponsor goes out

o business. An insurer that is providing annuities becomes

insolvent.

Assets held in a participants dened contributionplan account lose value. Risk o such loss dependson the individuals investment allocation, andincludes possible ailure o the employers businessi much o the account is invested in employer stock.

The risk o insolvency or an employer or insurer is

closely related to its credit rating in the bond market

and, in the case o an insurance company, its claim-

paying ability rating. Those with top ratings are saest,

but ratings sometimes all rapidly when business conditions

or inormation changes.

Benets in most dened-benet private pension plans

are insured by the ederal Pension Benet Guaranty

Corporation up to certain limits.

Annuitants are covered by state insurance company

guaranty unds up to specied limits in the event o

insurer insolvency.

Dened contribution plan participants need to diversiy

investments. Where the plan automatically includes heavy

concentration in employer stock, participants should

look to other assets or diversication. I a dened

benet plan is also provided, this automatically givessome diversication.

A pension plan can be terminated even i the employer

remains in business. Under dened benet plans that are

not covered by PBGC insurance (e.g., state and local

government employee plans, church plans), benets can

be lost on termination.

BUSINESS RISKS



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Many retirees plan to supplement their income by

working at a bridge job part-time or ull-time.

Todays jobs oten make ew physical demands, and

may even be done at home. Some organizations preer

to hire older workers because o their stability and lieexperience. But success in the job market may also call

or technical skills that retirees cannot easily gain

or maintain.

Employment prospects among retirees vary greatly because

o demands or dierent skills, and can change with health,

amily or economic conditions.

About hal o all retirees retire earlier than planned, oten

because o job loss or poor health.

Retirement plans rarely allow or phased retirement, soa bridge job usually means working or a new employer.Re-hiring o retirees also is growing more common.These kinds o jobs oten have lower pay or benets,and are more subject to layos.

Postponing retirement may be the most powerul wayor workers to improve their retirement security. Thisallows their retirement savings to keep growing whilethe workers accumulate more benets rom SocialSecurity and retirement programs.

Retirement planning should not rely heavily

on income rom a bridge job.

Many retirees welcome the chance to change

careers and move into an area with less pay but

more job satisaction, or with ewer demands on

their time and energy.

Terminating employment beore age 65 may

make it dicult to nd a source o aordable health

insurance beore Medicare is available. Note that

COBRA coverage usually ends ater 18 months (36months i disabled).

EMPLOYMENT RISK

Policy risks include these possible changes: Increase in taxes (income, property, sales, etc.). New kinds of taxes such as a consumption tax

or value-added tax. Reduction in entitlement benets from Social

Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Increase in retiree contributions for Medicare

Higher payments by high-income retirees arealready scheduled.

Tighter income standards for Medicaid and othermeans-tested programs.

Changes that may include benet cuts or higher

taxes will be needed to pay benets to aged baby

boomers. Such benets include Social Security,

Medicare and veterans benets.

Municipal bonds, Roth IRAs and Roth 401(k)s have a

tax-ree status that oers protection against higher

income tax rates.

Converting a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA will lock

in current income tax rates. But new kinds o taxes

could reduce the purchasing power of such tax-free

income.

Historically, Congress has been very reluctant to reduce

benets promised to current retirees. Older workers also

may escape benet reductions, but young workers uture

government benets are less sae rom reduction.

Under current law, more and more retirees will pay income

tax on their Social Security benets because the dollar

exclusion rom taxation does not rise with infation.

PUBLIC POLICY RISKS

COMMENTS

MANAGING

THERISK

PREDICTABILITY

BACKG

ROUND




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MANAGING POST-RETIREMENTRISKS: A GUIDE TO RETIREMENT PLANNINGS 8

BACKGROUND

Unexpected health care costs are a major concern.

Employers continue to cut back on post-retirement

health care benets. Low-income retirees may spend

a large percentage o their resources on health care.

Medical technology improvements that extend liemay increase health care costs.

Health care costs are:

Relatively easy to predict or a large group over a

limited time.

Hard to predict or individuals.

Very hard to predict ar into the uture.

Medicare is the primary source o coverage orpost-65 retirees. Supplemental coverage isavailable rom employer plans and individualMedigap policies or HMOs.

Other ederal or state-local programs may assistlow-income retirees.

Instead o retiring rom a job with health benets,employees may choose to keep working, at leastpart-time, in a job that will allow them to remaincovered.

Future resources are hard to predict because a high

level o uncertainty exists about the uture design o

Medicare.

In a typical group, a small percentage o individuals

usually account or a large percentage o the groups

overall health care costs.

Its not too late or retirees to reduce their risk o majorhealth problems by liestyle changes involving diet,

exercise, smoking, etc.

UNEXPECTED HEALTH CARE NEEDS & COSTS


Facilities or caregivers sometimes are not availableor acute or long-term care, even or privatepaying individuals.

Couples may be unable to live together when

one o them needs a higher level o care, therebyincreasing cost and emotional stress.

Individuals may want to review private and

public support programs available where

they intend to live.

In some cases, individuals may be able tochoose a general area o residence to improve

access to care.

Lack o appropriate acilities or caregivers

may orce people into a higher level o care,

or cause them to be without needed care.

The current shortage o health-care workers

may become worse.

LACK OF AVAILABLE FACILITIES OR CAREGIVERS

PREDICTABILITY

MANAGING

THERISK

COMMENT

S


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Changes can be sudden, tied to an illness or accident, orgradual, perhaps linked to a chronic disease.

Multiple problems are common when physical or mentalcapabilities decline.

The percentage needing help rises substantially with age,

but changes in individual cases oten are hard to predict.

Insurance or long-term care covers disabilities so severe

that assistance is needed with daily activities such as bath-

ing, dressing and eating. Some policies require a nursing

home stay; others do not. The cost o long-term care

insurance is much less i purchased at younger ages,

well beore anticipated need.

Functional status may be hard to measure, and dierent

insurance products may use dierent denitions o

limitations. Its better to look or less-severe denitions

when purchasing insurance.

Medicaid covers a large share o total nursing home costsand may cover assisted living, with benets available only

to people with very low or no assets.

Dening unctional status can be a problem. For

example, difculty in using telephone might mean:

Cant use phone at all.

Can answer a call but not place one.

Cant look up number to call but can use speed dial.

Can use phone on limited basis but not use answering

machine.

None o the limitations on using the phone would trigger beneteligibility under long-term care insurance, but they may trigger

the need or help.

Spousal protection rules (which vary by state) need to be

considered when deciding whether Medicaid would help.

Care options are linked to housing choices and these are

evolving.

LOSS OF ABILITY TO LIVE INDEPENDENTLY

Special housing or the elderly provides a range o

services including help with activities o daily living and

sometimes with ongoing health care too. Housing that

includes care can be quite costly.

Some housing ocuses on care or specic diseases orconditions. The most appropriate orm o housing or an

individual in a given situation may not be available in

the chosen geographic area, or may have a long wait

or entrance.

Needs at time o retirement are predictable unless

the individual is disabled.

Future needs are hard to predict because they vary with

the ability to unction; or example, stairs may become

a barrier. Snow removal and yard care can also become

problems, but can be contracted out.

Special housing is nanced mainly rom personal assetsand current income.

Retirement income planning may allow or increases tied toinfation plus signicant increases later to cover dierenttypes o housing.

Medicaid and/or long-term care insurance may coverpart o housing costs i merged with care.

Choices depend on personal preerence and

unctional status plus nancial and amily resources.

Housing can be a major asset in retirement. A home can

be converted to cash by selling it or using a reverse

annuity mortgage.

Continuing care retirement communities include

elements o advance unding o costs or long-termcare and medical care.

CHANGE IN HOUSING NEEDS

BACK

GROUND

PREDICTABILITY

MANAGING

THERISK

COMMENTS


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The death o a spouse is a major change in amilysituation that is oten accompanied by a decline ineconomic status: Some income may stop at the death of a spouse or

ormer spouse. The death of a disabled persons caregiver spouse may

bring nancial problems at a very dicult time. The surviving spouse may not be able or willing to

manage the amilys nances.

Inability to cope with a spouses death or terminalillness contributes to high rates o depression and

suicide among the elderly.

It can be dicult to predict which spouse will live longer

in individual cases.

Women are widowed more oten than men.

Many nancial vehicles are available and can be used

in combination:

Lie insurance

Survivor income in Social Security, pension plans

and annuities

Long-term care insurance

Savings

Wills and estate planning are important tools to provide

or a surviving spouse.

Some experts say that a surviving spouse needs about 75

percent o the couples income to maintain living standards.

Widows nancial resources are very low in many cases.

Poverty rates or elderly widows are about 15 percent

compared to 4 percent or married couples.

Social Security provides continued benets to survivors

based on their personal work and amily status. Note that a

single-earner amily survivor generally gets two-thirds o the

combined amily benet that was payable while both were

alive, whereas in a dual-earner amily with equal earnings,

the survivor gets only about hal o the combined benet.

In this case and many others, the reduction in Social Security

benets ater death o the rst spouse is much greater or a

two-earner couple than or a single-earner couple.

Married couples may want to choose their Social

Security retirement dates careully to increase potential

surviving spouse benets. This may mean that the lower

earner applies or benets at age 62 and the higher

earner waits until age 70.

DEATH OF A SPOUSE

Marriage and divorce can aect benet entitlement underpublic and private plans. Some o these eects may not bewell understood.

For example, a woman sometimes can maximize her SocialSecurity benets by rst applying as a widow or divorcedspouse, later applying at age 70 or benets credited onher own record as a worker.

Divorce can create major nancial problems or eitherparty.

A substantial percentage o marriages end in divorce. Many

women are alone in retirement.

Divorce or marriage ater retirement age is not uncommon

and should be recognized as a possibility.

This is a personal issue. There are no ormal programs.

In divorce proceedings, the law allows or division o private

pension plan benets covered by ERISA. For this purpose,

divorcing spouses need a properly drated qualied do-

mestic relations order (QDRO).

Older couples who marry, especially those with children,

may want a pre-nuptial agreement that denes each partys

rights to distribute or dispose o property as they wish, not

as a court would decree.

In divorce proceedings, retirement benets may get transerred

rom one spouse to the other, depending on decisions o the

parties and the divorce court.

Couples considering whether or not to marry need better

inormation about how their decision aects benets rom

Social Security, Medicaid and retirement or survivor programs.

At marriage, an individual may gain rights to survivors

benets under Social Security and retirement

programs.

Marriage or remarriage may result in the loss of some

benets.

OTHER CHANGE IN MARITAL STATUS

BACKGROUND

P

REDICTABILITY

MANAGING

THERISK

COMM

ENTS


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Retirees and surviving spouses may lack nancial skills and judgment,

especially at advanced ages i mental capabilities decline. They

oten are preyed upon because o their substantial assets and

ading cognitive skills.

Friends and relatives may be unqualied to advise them about

some issues or even have bad motives. Salespeople and brokers

may promote products or investments that are unsuitable.

Societal changes are resulting in greater use o paid caregivers

instead o amily members.

Caregivers, nancial advisors, or scammers may have access

to retiree assets, personal belongings, ID data and passwords.

Exposure may increase as retirees directly control more assets,

nancial products become more complex, more retirees use

computers, and scammers become more adept.

However, good advice and good products are increasingly

available to people who seek them out.

Here are some precautions retirees can take: Learn the ABCs of investing and handling money. Get advice from qualied and trustworthy sources

including U.S. Department o Labor and employer-sponsoredprograms.

Keep decision-making simple; make sure all options are understood.

Get several opinions on important issues. Be very cautious in giving control of assets to any professional

or in dealing with strangers personally or online. In later years, expect to rely more on trusted family members

or proessionals; investigate and choose such peoplelong beore a need or their help suddenly arises.

Use paid caregivers who are bonded.

Even a well-educated person with a nancially secure retirement

may be exposed to substantial loss rom these sources.

Few people have the wide range o expertise needed to give

good advice in every situation, so its important to have accessto dierent sources o advice.

Using traditional pensions or payout annuities reduces some o

the risks noted here.

BAD ADVICE, FRAUD OR THEFT

Many retirees nd themselves helping other

amily members including parents, children

and grandchildren. Retirement planning should

recognize any obligation to assist such amily

members. A change in health, employment or

marital status may upset such plans and call or

greater personal or nancial support rom the

retiree.

Generally, amily members are known at time o

retirement, but new grandchildren may come

ater retirement. Sometimes people remarry

ater retirement.

Older children or grandchildren oten need money or

higher education, and a ew need special help to deal

with physical or mental handicaps. Their parents canusually oresee such cases by the time they retire and

try to plan accordingly.

Adult children may look or help in case o

unemployment or nancial setback.

Social Security and other government programsmay pay benets to amily members other thanthe workers spouse.

An increasing number o grandparents are the

primary caregivers or their grandchildren today.

UNFORESEEN NEEDS OF FAMILY MEMBERS



BACKGROU

ND

PREDICTABILITY

MANAGING

THERISK

COMMENTS


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NOTES




15/16

The Society o Actuaries would like to acknowledge the work o its Committee on Post-Retirement

Needs and Risks in producing this second edition o the Managing Post-Retirement Risks chart.

Special thanks to the individuals who participated in this effort:

Dick Schreitmueller (Project Chair)

Anna Rappaport (CPRNR Chair)

Carol Bogosian

Steve Cooperstein

Matthew Drinkwater

Martha Gaudet

Sarah Holden

Howard Iams

Connie Lam

James Mahaney

Betty Meredith

John Phillips

Sara Rix Zenaida Samaniego

Dave Sandberg

Steve Vernon

Andrew Peterson (SOA Sta)

Steve Siegel (SOA Sta)

The committees mission is to initiate and coordinate the development o educational materials, con-

tinuing education programs and research related to risks and needs during the post retirement period.

Individuals interested in learning more about the committees activities are encouraged to contact the

Society o Actuaries at 847-706-3500 or more inormation. Additional inormation and research reports

may be ound at http://www.soa.org/research/pension/research-post-retirement-needs-and-risks.aspx



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