Professor David Magleby

Brigham Young University

Politics Now

Most expensive federal election ever 2008 marked the end of public financing of presidential

campaigns Surge in individual contributions to candidates, parties and PACs Key players: Donors giving near the maximum allowable, smaller

donors, Party Committees The internet as a means to raise money/activate individuals

Obama , ActBlue Democrats well-funded, better coordinated this year Democrats took over the advantage with individual donors Different roles for allied groups

Less 527 activity No game changing ads/attacks Dem. groups more active, better coordinated Dems. caught up with GOP in lists/microtargeting

Highlights of the 2008 Election

Federal Election Act of 1971 (FECA)Contribution limits and disclosureCourt challengesFederal Election Commission (FEC)Soft money

Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA)Soft moneyContribution limits and disclosureElectioneering communicationsCourt challenges

Changing Rules

Figure 1:Individual Contribution Limits Under BCRA

To a candidate To all candidates To a party committee Overall$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$4,600

$42,700

$28,500

$108,200

Contribution Limits

Table 1:Overall Spending in Federal Elections2000-2008 (in millions)

   

   

 

  2000 2004 2008

Presidential candidates 645 958 1,829

Congressional candidates 978 1,099 1,297

National parties (federal) 544 1,214 1,219

National parties (nonfederal) 498 . . . . . .

State and local parties (federal) 171 201 318

State parties (nonfederal) 330 67 94

PACs 320 532 767

527s 101h 442i 258j

501(c)s 10k 60l 196m

Issue advocacy 248 . . . . . .

Individual Expenditures 4 2 2

Total 3,849 4,575 5,980

  

Source: David Magleby, Financing the 2008 Election (forthcoming)

Figure 2:Cumulative Itemized Receipts from Individuals to the Presidential Nominees and the RNC & DNC, 2004 & 2008 (by week)

Source: David Magleby, Financing the 2008 Election (forthcoming)

1-Ja

n-07

31-Ja

n-07

2-M

ar-0

7

1-Apr

-07

1-M

ay-0

7

31-M

ay-0

7

30-Ju

n-07

30-Ju

l-07

29-A

ug-0

7

28-S

ep-0

7

28-O

ct-0

7

27-N

ov-0

7

27-D

ec-0

7

26-Ja

n-08

25-F

eb-0

8

26-M

ar-0

8

25-A

pr-0

8

25-M

ay-0

8

24-Ju

n-08

24-Ju

l-08

23-A

ug-0

8

22-S

ep-0

8

22-O

ct-0

8

21-N

ov-0

8

21-D

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8$0

$100,000,000

$200,000,000

$300,000,000

$400,000,000

$500,000,000

$600,000,000

Obama/DNC McCain/RNC Bush/RNC Kerry/DNC

Date of Contribution

Figure 3:Percentage Coming From Unitemized Contributions to Presidential Candidates

Source: David Magleby, Financing the 2008 Election (forthcoming)

1-Ja

n-07

1-Feb

-07

1-M

ar-0

7

1-Apr

-07

1-M

ay-0

7

1-Ju

n-07

1-Ju

l-07

1-Aug

-07

1-Sep

-07

1-Oct

-07

1-Nov

-07

1-Dec

-07

1-Ja

n-08

1-Feb

-08

1-M

ar-0

8

1-Apr

-08

1-M

ay-0

8

1-Ju

n-08

1-Ju

l-08

1-Aug

-08

1-Sep

-08

1-Oct

-08

1-Nov

-08

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

McCain (Percent Unitemized) Obama (Percent Unitemized)

Incumbency and fundraising (presidential and congressional)

PAC pragmatismDSCC and DCCC successes in 2006 and 2008Coordinated groupsThe Internet

Democratic Advantage

The economyDeclines in Obama popularityPossible enthusiasm advantageElectoral map

Republican Opportunities