Upload
agnes-sanders
View
232
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
POLITICAL BAROMETERA Study of Socio-Political Preferences of People of Pakistan
Background
•First civilian government completing it’s term
•Chief Election Commissioner appointed through parliamentary consensus for the first time in the country’s history
•Caretaker government to be decided in consultation instead of being chosen by the president
The Political Barometer Survey• Covers a wide range of socio-political indicators
• Conducted across broad sections of the society
• Rapid assessment around 1,300 respondents in 52 districts, reflecting on issues like electoral reform, governance, security, interprovincial relations, arts and culture, civil rights, and foreign policy
• Strata take account of ethno-linguistic lines instead of the traditional provincial demarcation
Sampling•Demographic sample based on the population
census of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
•Stratified Sampling▫Ethno-linguistic▫Gender▫Urban/Rural▫Age▫Income▫Educational qualification
Questionnaire, interviews, and challenges
• Both open-ended as well as close-ended questions to minimize biases
• Conducted in 52 districts across Balochistan, FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Sindh
• Occasional reluctance and difficulty by respondents to respond to a few questions
• The data was verified through randomly contacting reluctant respondants
• Respondents’ understanding of technical terms like MFN
IssuesElectoral Process
Corruption
Foreign Policy
Internal Security
Political Economy
Inter-provincia
l relations
Civil Military
Relations
Electoral Process
PPP24%
PMLN24%PTI
27%
Others25%
Most transparent party while contest-ing elections
PPP41%
PMLN16%
MQM19%
Others24%
Least transparent party while contest-ing elections
Yes53%
No21%
Maybe26%
Decision to vote despite doubts about the electoral process
Corruption
PPP56%
PMLN10%
MQM16%
Others18%
Responses on the most corrupt party
PPP23%
PMLN25%
PTI34%
Others18%
Responses on political party that will end/reduce corruption, if in power
Yes60%No
16%
Maybe24%
Decision to vote: will it be based on levels of corruption within a political
party?
Foreign Policy
Yes33%
No35%
Maybe32%
Preferences for Pakistan to have strong strategic alliance with the US
Yes70%
No11%
Maybe19%
Are drone attacks infringement on Pakistan's sovereignty?
Yes37%
No37%
Maybe26%
Does Pakistan require foreign aid?
Relations with neighbors
Maintains a neutral
stance38%
A party's stance on relations
with India will not factor in my deci-
sion mak-ing17%
Pledges peaceful ties with
India28%
Opposes peaceful ties with
India17%
Preference to vote for a party that...
Yes33%
No35%
Maybe32%
Should Pakistan promote a gov-ernment favourable to its own in-
terests in Afghanistan?
PPP30%
PMLN29%
PTI21%
Others20%
Party that can best handle Pakistan's foreign affairs
Internal Security
Negoti-ation36%
Military action24%
Negoti-ation
and mil-itary ac-
tion39%
Other1%
Government's engagement with Taliban should focus on...
PPP24%
PMLN26%PTI
20%
Others30%
Party that can best counter religious violence
PPP22%
PMLN24%
PTI22%
Others 32%
Party that can best counter sectarian violence
Political Economy
Unem-ployment
21%
Energy shortage
19%Currency devalua-
tion13%
Inflation12%
Foreign debt
burden12%
Others23%
Economic issues facing Pakistan
Pressing issues based on education levelsHigher Levels of Education Lower Levels of Education
•Extremism•Political instability•Interprovincial
problems
•Inflation•Gender
discrimination•Food shortages
Hea
lth
Educa
tion
Infras
truc
ture
dev
elop
men
t
Fuel i
mpo
rts
Defen
ce
Food
and
agric
ultu
re
Spor
ts
Wat
er a
nd p
ower
Enviro
nmen
t
Social
welfa
re
Tour
ism
dev
elop
men
t
Yout
h de
velo
pmen
t
10%
12%
8%9% 9%
7%8%
9%8% 8%
7%8%
Sectors needing increase in govt. expenditure
Hea
lth
Educa
tion
Infras
truc
ture
dev
elop
men
t
Fuel i
mpo
rts
Defen
ce
Food
and
agric
ultu
re
Spor
ts
Wat
er a
nd p
ower
Enviro
nmen
t
Social
welfa
re
Tour
ism
dev
elop
men
t
Yout
h de
velo
pmen
t
8%9%
8%
10% 10%
6%
9%8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Sectors needing reduction in govt. expenditure
PPP27%
PMLN26%
PTI25%
Others22%
Most effective party to address Pakistan's economic problems
Provincial Matters
Dishar-monious
42%
Har-mo-
nious22%
No opinion36%
Pakistan's interprovincial relations are...
Yes36%
No38%
Maybe26%
Support for creation of new provinces
Yes12%
No69%
Maybe
19%
Power: equitable distri-bution between all
provinces?
Yes17%
No63%
Maybe
20%
Water: equitable distribution between all provinces?
Yes21%
No55%
Maybe24%
Is food distribution across provinces fair?
PPP26%
PMLN26%
PTI23%
Others25%
Party that will be most effective in addressing provincial problems
Civil-military relations
Mili
tary
Judi
ciar
y
Gover
nmen
t
Ule
ma/
cler
gy
Forei
gn p
ower
s
Inte
llige
nce
agen
cies
Busin
essm
en
Burea
ucra
cy
Indu
stria
lists
Feuda
ls
Birada
ri/clan
Oth
ers
11%
9%10%
8%9%
10%9% 9%
8% 8% 8%
1%
Most powerful institution in Pakistan
Women
Ban it19%
Promote it66%
Remain neutral
15%
What should be Government policy on women contesting elections?
Ban it11%
Promote it53%
Remain neutral
36%
What should be Government’s Stance on women's purdah outside their
homes?
Ban them26%
Actively promote
them48%
Remain neutral
26%
What should be Government policy on women working alongside men in
workplaces?
Both88%
Boys5%
Girls6%
Neither1%
Preference in education should be for...
Ban it29%
Actively promote it
46%
Remain neutral
25%
Government's policy on co-education should be...
Yes39%
No40%
Maybe21%
Should women have the right to divorce?
Unac-ceptable
77%
Acceptable2%
Sometimes justified,
sometimes unjustified
16%
No opinion5%
Opinions on domestic violence
Acceptable11%
Unac-ceptable
63%
Sometimes justified,
sometimes unjustified
19%
No opinion7%
Opinions on honour killings
Its policy on women contesting elections
15%Its policy on coed-ucation
14%Its policy on purdah
14%Its policy on women working
alongside men11%
Its policy on per-forming
arts13%
Others33%
Lifestyle and cultural issues influ-encing voter’s preference
Minorities
Yes72%
No13%
Maybe15%
Should non-Muslims have rights equal to the rights of Muslims in
Pakistan?
Yes82%
No8%
Maybe10%
Should non-Muslims have freedom to practice their religion in Pakistan?
Yes34%
No38%
Maybe28%
Should there be a separate voters list for minorities in Pakistan?
Yes38%
No39%
Maybe23%
Opinions on the fairness and justness of blasphemy laws in Pakistan
Voting trends
18-35 36-50 51-70 70+
27% 32% 28% 28%
24% 22% 28%46%
23% 19% 18%
8%26% 27% 25% 18%
Party support within each age bracket*
PPP PMLN PTI Others
*Does not include respondents who selected no party
Sindhi Seraiki Hindko Punjabi Pakhtun Baloch
55%46% 0.44 0.43
0.44
0.34
0.11
0.47
PPP PML-N PTIANP BNP-Mengal
Party support across different ethnicities
Voting trends vis-à-vis voting history
•Vote bank for PML-N Stagnant
•Vote bank for PPP Declined
•Vote bank for PTI Stronger urban base
PPP PMLN PTI MQM JI PMLQ
Rs. 10,000 or less 0.44 0.37 0.26 0.25 0.3 0.44
Rs. 10,000-45,000 0.53 0.55 0.59 0.5 0.57 0.41
Rs. 45,000-100,000 0.02 0.05 0.1 0.16 0.08 0.13
Above Rs. 100,000 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.05 0.03
Parties' supporters by monthly family income
•PPP▫Roughly one-third of the respondents
earning below Rs. 30,000 indicate a preference for PPP
▫Reinforces the pro-poor image of the party▫Support from those earning over Rs.
30,000 dropped to 10.8%
•PML-N▫Support appears similar across all income
groups
•PTI▫33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000
intend to vote for the party
•MQM▫33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000
intend to vote for the party▫Only 4% of those earning between Rs.
100,000 and 250,000 expressed intention to vote for the party
▫Below 100K
•Support for smaller parties appears to weaken as income level rises
•PTI eroding PPP votebank
The 5 Scenarios
Scenario 1•IF:
▫Electoral alliance between PPP and its current allies, ANP, MQM, and PML-Q
▫Anti-PPP alliance at the same time: PML-N, JUI, JI, minus PTI
•THEN: ▫PPP and alliance may capture 38.1% of the
vote▫Anti-PPP alliance, minus PTI, may secure
29.5%▫Together with the PTI, the anti-PPP alliance
may give a tougher time to PPP
• IF:▫PPP partners with current allies – ANP and PML-Q▫MQM opts for the anti-PPP alliance; PTI decides not
to be part of either
• THEN:▫PPP and allies secure 33.9% of the votes▫Opposition alliance secures 33.7% of the votes▫Weaker government against a stronger opposition
• Option 1:▫PML-N led govt.: PPP and PTI form opposition
• Option 2:▫PPP led govt.: PML-N and PTI form opposition
Scenario 2
•IF:▫Electoral alliance between PPP and current
allies – ANP, MQM, and PML-Q▫Opposing alliance between PML-N and PTI
•THEN:▫PML-N and PTI jointly sweep through,
capturing 45.0% of the votes relatively stable govt. at the centre
▫Anti-PPP parties may also join in
Scenario 3
•IF:▫Electoral alliance between PPP and PTI▫PML-N led strong opposing alliance
•THEN:▫PPP and PTI secure 49.3% of the votes
stable govt. at the centre
Scenario 4
•IF:▫PPP-led coalition with current allies▫PTI and JI partner for an alliance▫PML-N led alliance with JUI and other anti-
PPP parties
•THEN:▫PPP and allies secure 38.1% of the votes▫PTI and JI alliance secures 23.9%▫PML-N led alliance secures 25.9%
Scenario 5
What is expected…• Scenarios 3 and 4 unlikely
• Elections unlikely to be dominated by a single political party
• PPP may have to continue with its current alliance
• An emerging PTI
• Likelihood of a strong opposition high
• Electorate divided over ‘crucial’ issues
Thank you
www.sdpi.org, www.sdpi.tv