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Policy Making Tool for Water Resource ManagementPrototype Research at Thailand and Pakistan
1
Kochi University of Technology, Japan
Water Resource management
Asif Mumtaz BhattiKochi University of TechnologyAssistant Professor, Research Center for Social management
Seigo NASUKochi University of TechnologyDirector, Department of Management/Research Center for Social managementProfessor, Graduate School of Engineering
2
Kochi University of Technology, Japan
Water Resource management
What we need?
1) End to End Model of Natural and Social phenomena.
2)Application Model to utilize End to End Model.
3)Implementation Procedure Model& Regional Management Model.
Kochi University of Technology, Japan
3Water Resource management
Project Area
Water demand水需要‐ Groundwater地下水‐ Pipe water 水道水‐ Surface water表面水
Economic activities‐ Industrial工業‐ Agricultural農業‐ Domestic*生活‐⇔I‐O Model and‐Demand Model
Economic plan 経済計画‐ National economic & social development plans International agreements
Control measure of Water Demand‐ New water infrastructure‐ Pricing policy‐ Efficiency control by water supplier and consumer‐ Laws and regulations
‐ Infrastructure･･････Dam‐ Water distribution system
‐ Demand‐supply curvehigher cost by market law
‐ Subsidy by public sector
‐ Higher water efficiency ‐ Recycle, reduce, reuse
‐ GW ban law‐ Industrial law
‐ Toolbox for water demand management‐ Decision support systems‐Evaluation of water demand and GDP‐Industrial and Domestic Welfare evaluation
Note: domestic WD means water consumed by citizen for daily activities such as drinking, washing, taking a bath
●Policy Making by Equilibrium analysis and Evaluation‐ Water Demand Model(Elasticity)‐ Predict Demand curve Shift ‐ at Industry, Agriculture, & Domestic‐ Water Supply Model(Cost)
‐ Social Welfare Logic Model
In case of Bangkok: Only constructing new water supply is not enough for higher demand. Combination of water demandand supply scheme is the best
1 2 3 400
10
20
30Water price, THB/m3
Water use, Mm3/d.
EP1EP1’
S1
D
D’
(1.23, 15.33)
(2.96, 16.92)
( GW = 1.25 ) ( PW = 0.48 ) ( RW=1.55 )
Subsidy = 3.1 THB./m3.
Water surplus = 0.32 Mm3/d.
WS schemeconstruct new water supply system
WD scheme: recycled water
Hydrological Model‐ Meteorological &Water Resource forecast model
（Equilibrium analysis model）
Structure Issue
・Elasticity usually described as a function of price.・However, It is also a function of GDP per capita, Living standard, and Awareness of people to water.
Logic Model of Awareness
( )iii ONfA ,=
Predicting the Demand Curve Shift of WaterBy Modeling Both Price & Awareness
Evaluation Logic Model ofOutcome of PolicyBased on Awareness Model
( )iii ONfA ,=
Logic Modelof Awareness
Structure Issue byField Investigation
Structure Numerical Model of People’s Awareness
Kochi University of Technology, Japan
6
Shift of water demand curve
Change inExpectations, E
Socio-economic Variables, S
Change in numberof users, N
Change in substitute goods, G
Change in income, I
Increase income, 2X, 3X
Change daily life style
More luxury more water- bathroom: Shower bathtub- Toilet: squat flush toilet- etc.
IncomeNow 3X
Q: How does your water use change, if your income is triple?--Bathroom….. --Toilet…. --Others….Ex. Change shower bathtub
Low pressure &Unstable water
solutions
Tank
Pump Change
PW GW
Higher cost- New cost = PW + investment
+ electricity cost
Q: Are you satisfied with water pressure and stability of water? yes/no
Q: What is your solution? (ranking)() tank with pump () pump () PW GW () do nothing
New cost- New cost = GW (0) + investment
+ electricity cost
Taste
GW PWQuality
Drinking waterBottled waterHH size
2 4 members
More people, more water use
-Birth control-Urbanization-Tourism
A
A
Logic model of household water demand
Macro viewpoint
Logic model of shift of water demand curve: HH
Q: Are you satisfied with water quality? Q: How does your water use change,
if water quality is better?
W1 W2
Equilibrium analysis of water demand and supply in futureWater Price
Supp
ly Cost
Total Demand／Total Supply of water resource
Supp
ly limit
Supply Function
Demand Function
需要
量
Demand
PriceAwareness
Demand Shift in Future(１) (２)
Logic Model
*figure of Professor Seigo NASU , Kochi University of Technology
Ｐ７
Domestic Water Demand Forecast Model
Population forecast
Birth rate – Death rate –Immigration + Migration
Population forecast model
Low birth rate
Medium birth rate
High birth rate
Water Demand Forecast Model
Water demand
Rural Area
Socio-economic factors
Constant birth rate
Preliminary Survey by
KUT
Low Income groupMiddle Income groupHigh Income group
Water demand scenarioLow, high, Constant
Urban Area
Water use Analysis
Factors Effecting Household Water DemandWD = f (E, A, Q & Q, H, P, W, C, S&D, S, Ec)
Housing Characteristics
, H
Domestic Water
Demand
Social & Demographic Setup, SD
Economic class, EC
Econometric Variables, E
Climatic Change, C
Weather variables, W
Water quality, Q
Low Income Class
Middle Income ClassHigh Income Class
Water quantity, Q
Accessibility, A
Population Growth, P
Climatic Change, C
Satisfaction, S
1050 m3 per capita
POPULATION GROWTH & WATER AVAILABILITY : PAKISTANToday about 170 Million people Live in Pakistan
Projected
23.12010
2020 =PopPop
44.12010
2030 =PopPop
Water Supply Hours Per Day
Unaccounted for water (%)
Water Production (m3/capita/day)
Water Supply Indicators in Selected Cites
Water Consumption (liter/capita/day)
Per Unit Water Production Cost in Pakistan
Water Pump (Hp) Electricity ConsumedkWh
Max. Suction/Water depth
0.5 0.37 15
1 0.74 21
2 1.49 27
3 2.24 38
Groundwater Abstraction and Energy
Groundwater table inLahore and Rawalpindi isdeclining at 1~1.5 meterannually
Water Tariff and Income
Water Demand Forecast: Lahore City
Population Forecast
Water Demand ForecastYear
Year
2010
2030
dWaterDemandWaterDeman
2010
2030
dWaterDemandWaterDeman
Low Constant High
1.1 1.3 1.5
1.2 1.8 2.4
0
1
2
3
4
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1.92.1
2.52.9
3.3
Popu
latio
n (M
illio
n)
Water Demand Forecast: Rawalpindi City
Year
Year
Population Forecast
Water Demand Forecast
2010
2030
dWaterDemandWaterDeman
2010
2030
dWaterDemandWaterDeman
Low Constant High
1.1 1.3 1.5
1.2 1.8 2.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2.93.3
3.94.5
5.2
Popu
latio
n (M
illio
n)Water Demand Forecast: Faisalabad City
Year
Year
Population Forecast
Water Demand Forecast
2010
2030
dWaterDemandWaterDeman
2010
2030
dWaterDemandWaterDeman
Low Constant High
1.1 1.3 1.5
1.2 1.8 2.4
Water Demand & Supply CurveUnmetered Water Connection
Low Income Group
Middle Income Group High
Income Group
Household Water Demand & Supply Curve, LahoreMetered Water Connection
Low IncomeGroup
Middle IncomeGroup
High IncomeGroup
Water Demand, Tariff and Income Relationship
Water demand (m3) = 0.08 *Water Tariff + 0.0001 Income/month + 0.35R2=99
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1020
3040
5060
20x10340x103
60x10380x103100x103
Wat
er T
ariff
(Yen
/Mon
th)
Wate
r Dem
and (
m3 )
Income/Household/Month(Yen)
R2=99R2=90
R2=80
Pakistan Average
Science Gap50-83 %
Research Gap25-50 %
Extension Gap31-75 %
Research in Pakistan
Best Practices
Research in World
Input
Out
put
Productivity Gaps in AgricultureIn Pakistan, every cubic meter of water contributing $ 4.6 to GDPWorld average = $8.6 USA = $ 40
Agriculture Water Demand (BCM)
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2008 2010 2020 2030
Cro
p Y
ield
(kg/
ha)
Year
WheatBAU Best Practices Climatic Effect
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
2008 2010 2020 2030
Cro
p Y
ield
(kg/
ha)
Year
RiceBAU Best Practices Climatic Effect
Average Crop Yield (kg/ha) Under Different Scenario
Base Year
Base Year
Agriculture Water Demand Under Different Scenario
Base Year
Agriculture Water Demand and Water Availability Under Different Scenario
150
165
180
195
210
225
240
2008 2010 2020 2030
Wat
er D
eman
d (B
CM
)
Year
BAU Best Practices High Stress Climatic Effect Water Availbility
14 BCM
Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) =109 * 3
12 BCM
5 BCM
Base Year
With new Infrastructure
Without new Infrastructure
Development of Water Quality ModelsSimulated ALOS/AVNIR-2 Bands
Total Suspended Sediments Colour Dissolved Organic Matter
Secchi Depth Chl-a
Altamaha RiverSt. Marys River
Water Quality Models
[ ] nBBBBmlmgSSC ++= )//()()/( 4334
lBBnBBmlmgTSS +−= )/()/()/( 242
24
lBBnBBmlgaChl ++=− )/()/()/( 132
13μ
lBBnBBmmCDOM +−=− )/()/()( 212
211
lBBnBBmmDepthSecchi +−= )/()/()( 232
23
nmCDOMmpptSalinity += − ),ln()( 1
Where m, n, & l are coefficients.
ALOS/AVNIR-2 Bands
Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC, mg/l)
Total Suspended Sediment (TSS, mg/l)
Chlorophyll-a (μg/l)
Colour Dissolved Organic Matter (CDOM)
Secchi Depth (m)
Salinity (ppt)
lBBBBnBBBBmlmgTSS ++−+= )]//()[()]//()[()/( 23342
2334
Simulated Algorithms Images
(B4+B3)/(B3/B4)
2 Band Model 3 Band Model
(B4+B3)/(B3/B2)
Spectral Variation Along the River - AVNIR-2 Data
2006/10/6 –ALOS Data
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200Length of River Reach, km
(B4+
B3)
/(B3/B
4)
3 Band Model2 Band Model
Suspended Sediment Along River/SPOT DATA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 10 20 30 40 50Length of River Upstream (km)
SSC
(mg/
l)
2005/05/10
[ ] nBBBBmlmgSSC ++= )//()()/( 3223
Where m : 365 & n : 73
SPOT-2 (Systeme Pour l'Observation de la Terre)
2007/6/2
Suspended Sediment Along River/ASTER DATA
2007/4/15
Where m : 1291& n : 514
[ ] nBBBBmlmgSSC BB ++= )//()()/( 3223
Water Resources Management- A Way Forward
Water Demand Management- A Way Forward
Effective water pricing policyPlan for safe, adequate, equitable,sustainable and affordable waterservices
The extraction of groundwater should beregulated and more efficiently monitored.Development of water quality and quantitystandards
Actions at regional, local and users levelsBuilding new social framework includingcommunity participationCapacity Building of institutions/NGOs &Community
Policy
Legislation
Programme
• An efficient, economic and environmentally acceptableintegrated approach is needed for sustainable solutions
• Development of workable methods and approaches to tocope with climatic change impact is vital.
• To create reliable database to be shared among differentdisciplines is necessary.
• Institutional Reforms and capacity building
• Technical assistance programs
Peter H. Gleick (A waterexpert) said that “ For water,the least we can do is toeducate people”. Lets giveawareness to people…
